Astrobot Posted June 18, 2014 Posted June 18, 2014 (edited) Preseason Edition This season, I'm inviting TBD to help with Power Ranking to determine the pick order for DraftTek mock drafts. I know it's early. But we actually have to have a pick order established in 2 weeks, and DraftTek Analysts need players in rank order for our Big Board in a month. So that we have something to argue about, here is my initial rank-order of teams. THE "TOP-SHELF SIX" San Francisco 49ers Tank Carradine, Corey Lemonier, and Aaron edge-rushing Navorro Bowman will miss games but I love Chris Borland -Shayne Skov - Patrick Willis, with Aaron Lynch in reserve. Jimmie Ward and Eric Reid S Colin Kaepernick Weapons galore: a healthy Michael Crabtree, added Stevie Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Baldwin, Bruce Ellington, Vernon Davis offensive line, wild card: Aldon Smith situation running back depth, can pound it but have speedsters (Gore, Hyde, Lattimore, Trey Millard, LaMichael James who is also PR and KR), distributing one ball to so many playmakers Denver Broncos Peyton Manning. Wild card is sharp dropoff behind him: Osweiler, Dysert, Renner Have aging Wes Welker, Added Emmanuel Sanders and Cody Latimer; Lost Eric Decker, slight improvement Julius Thomas=elite TE Ryan Clady returns, with Franklin, Ramirez on L side. Gone: Wesley Woodyard, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Champ Bailey New: Aqib Talib at LCB, DeMarcus Ware at RDE, T.J. Ward at SS and Bradley Roby at RCB opposite Talib Von Miller at SLB Seattle Seahawks The Champs Russell Wilson, then Tarvaris Jackson and Terrrelle Pryor Backfield of Marshawn Lynch (if he returns--same nonsense in Buffalo), Christine Michael, and Robert Turbin Paul Richardson new WR, Percy Harvin’s healthy, average after that. Michael Bowie replaces Breno Giacomini 0n the offensive line--net gain. Okung, Carpenter-Unger is left side Gone: Chris Clemons, Clinton McDonald and Red Bryant---net loss DL: Avril, Michael Bennett DE's above average,; DTs are Tony McDaniel (added) and Mebane, Kevin Williams which are above average. They added WLB Kevin Pierre-Louis (draft) Legion of Boom backfield is fully intact. New Orleans Saints Drew Brees then a big dropoff (McCown, Ryan Griffin, Logan Kilgore) WRs Brandin Cooks, Stills, Meachem, Colston, , added Brandon Coleman RB Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram; and Khiry Robinson and/or Tim Flanders could impress Jimmy Graham TE is red zone (have until July 15 to work out a long-term deal--then one year deal) Akiem Hicks and Cameron Jordan are NFL's underrated DEs Add Jairus Byrd with Kenny Vaccaro S, and you now have one of top 3 safety duos not a lot of depth New England Patriots Tom Brady OL still above average WRs Aaron Dobson or Josh Boyce will have to step up, Amendola, Edelman must show they're consistent, and Gronk must stay healthy. On DL, Dominique Easley's the wild card with his medical issues, but typical BB pick. Dont’a Hightower, Jerod Mayo and Jamie Collins is impressive LB group Secondary is Top 5: Darrelle Revis, Devin McCourty, Brandon Browner and Logan Ryan. Green Bay Packers Aaron Rodgers. Healthy. WR Weapons Davante Adams, Jeff Janis, Jared Abbrederis added in the draft. Randall Cobb is healthy. Bryan Bulaga is healthy and the line is average Pass Rush looks good. Julius Peppers, Clay Matthews Ha Ha Clinton-Dix adds the springy athleticism needed on the back end of the defense. Colt Lyerla and/or Jermichael Finley TE THE "PAY ATTENTION TEN" Philadelphia Eagles Chip Kelly is a factor; pace and efficiency are the key concepts Best OL in NFL Darren Sproles added to LeSean McCoy means full throttle without fatigue Jordan Matthews will be thrown into the fire right away and Jeremy Maclin’s back, Gone: DeSean Jackson TE Zach Ertz Wild card is back end of the D. Baltimore Ravens Restructuring mode...okay, they're rebuilding. Ozzie Newsome great drafts Mercenary Steve Smith brought in at wR Pitta returns Gary Kubiak’s calling the offense's plays Jeremy Zuttah>Gino Gradkowski at center Aging but still good D-Line (Ngata, Cody, Brandon Williams, Canty) and adds Jernigan LB unit is top five (Suggs, Dumervil, Daryl Smith, Upshaw, Arthur Brown, and now Mosley from draft) Terrance Brooks should be a fine complement to Matt Elam on the back end of the secondary. Kansas City Chiefs Wild card team in 2014 (9-0 at one point, then 2-5 down the stretch, turnover ratio of +18) Lost to Colts as Andrew Luck led the come-from-behind victory, a microcosm of their season Impressive D (Eric Berry, Jamaal Charles, Justin Houston, Tamba Hali, newbie Dee Ford) Wild card is Alex Smith OL losses will be costly (Branden Albert and Jon Asamoah) Chicago Bears O-Weapons: Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett, Matt Forte, and Ka’Deem Carey Wild card: Jay Cutler's health (career numbers, then got hurt) DL revamped, adding Lamarr Houston, Jared Allen, Willie Young, and rooks Ego Ferguson and Will Sutton. Chicago needs young LB to improve. CBs could be good if Kyle Fuller learns quickly from vets Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings Detroit Lions Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate, Brandon Pettigrew, Reggie Bush and Joique Bell. Add: Eric Ebron, Joseph Fauria, Ryan Broyles, Kris Durham, and Kevin Ogletree Sound offensive line Ndamukong Suh, Nick Fairley, and an improving Ziggy Ansah --nice D-Line Add: rookie Kyle Van Noy (who'd better learn quick from Stephen Tulloch and DeAndre Levy in LB corps) Two Too-new coordinators? St. Louis Rams With Buffalo, top NFL Defensive Line= Robert Quinn. Michael Brockers. Chris Long. Better depth than Buffalo though=Aaron Donald., William Hayes, Alex Carrington, Kendall Langford Learning curve for OL, but damn good at outset (Greg Robinson, getting Jake Long and Rodger Saffold) Zac Stacy and Sam Bradford. Tavon Austin: if he stays healthy he can help, but if injured, the unit is average at best (Brian Quick, Britt) The secondary is above average Indianapolis Colts Andrew Luck Added Hakeem Nicks Dwayne Allen returns OL needs development Robert Mathis suspended to start Zach Kerr and Josh Chapman at nose D’Qwell Jackson at MLB is above average Trent Richardson is a wild card Buffalo Bills RB is one of NFL's most-solid on paper (Spiller, Fred Jackson, Bryce Brown, Anthony Dixon, Fred Summers, Evan Rodriguez. Pick 3). The offensive line (Cordy Glenn, Chris Hairston, Eric Wood, Urbik, Kouandjio) gets 5 preseason games to jell WRs Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Mike Williams, Marquise Goodwin (TJ Graham, Easley, Hogan, Elliott) have speed to burn, and might keep 7, so good run-pass balance EJ Manuel is the wild card DL one of NFL's three best, I rank them #2 behind Rams due to Dareus's probable suspension (Mario Williams. Kyle Williams, Marcell Dareus, Alan Branch, Jerry Hughes, Lawson, Corbin Bryant, Jarius Wynn) Jerry Hughes was one of the NFL’s most efficient pass-rushers in 2013 per PFF Additions of thumper Brandon Spikes at MLB, Rivers at OLB, Alonso's range moves to OLB Gilmore, McKelvin, Robey, Graham at CB; Aaron Williams, Searcy at S is impressive backfield Cincinnati Bengals Loss of Anthony Collins and Michael Johnson in free agency Rookies Jeremy Hill and Darqueze Dennard will be thrown into the fire early Geno Atkins and Leon Hall return Andy Dalton--meh Tampa Bay Buccaneers Top spenders in Free Agency (Michael Johnson, Alterraun Verner, Clinton McDonald, Josh McCown, Oniel Cousins) Playmakers acquired in draft (6’5″ Mike Evans and 6’6″ Austin Seferian-Jenkins) Darrelle Revis is gone Lavonte David and Gerald McCoy, First-Team All-Pros excellent RBs Doug Martin, Mike James, and rookie Charles Sims THE "WILD CARD FIVE" Cleveland Browns Mike Pettine knows how to blitz, has some pieces to do it, but he's new Johnny Manziel is the wildest of wild cards Josh Gordon suspension will hurt Andrew Hawkins YAC slot guy Solid O-Line and D-Line Jordan Cameron is a freak Above-average D with Karlos Dansby, Donte Whitner, Pierre Desir New York Jets D-Line is disruptive, likely top 3 Rex Ryan's blitz schemes with Muhammad Wilkerson (DE is 2nd in NFL to Watt), Sheldon Richardson DT David Harris, rookie Calvin Pryor WR Eric Decker acquired, draft added Jace Amaro Geno Smith a wild card like Buffalo Loowest percentage of Elite and HQ players in division, per PFF 35% of team is in Poor or Below Avg. ability ranking, most in division per PFF Pittsburgh Steelers Shazier won't help them as much as they think Dick Lebeau’s defensive mind is a plus Shamarko Thomas and Markus Wheaton need to step up Picks Stephon Tuitt and Josh Mauro will play early, learn on the fly Some aging, some inexperienced players is biggest Achilles heel. OL is just below average except for David DeCastro Miami Dolphins Improved OL---Signing Branden Albert, Drafted Ju’Wuan James Ryan Tannehill needs to step up Mike Wallace, Jarvis Landry at WR are just above average No Elite players on team, per PFF DL is underrated (Olivier Vernon, Randy Starks, Jared Odrick) Average LBs, moved Koa Misi to MLB (not sure about how that'll go) Finnegan could be picked on in secondary but Brent Grimes at CB and Reshad Jones at S could help them Lamar Miller at RB is their wild card San Diego Chargers Overachieved in 2013 High-efficiency offense will help them, Rivers to Keenan Allen will help Beyond the secondary, defense is below average OL is below average but with quick passing, it won't have to be. THE "SEVERELY AVERAGE SEVEN" Arizona Cardinals DL is well above average (Calais Campbell and Darnell Dockett) One of the best secondaries in NFL (Patrick Peterson, Tyrann Mathieu, & rookie Deone Bucannon) Season-long suspension of Daryl Washington, and Karlos Dansby wasn’t re-signed Andre Ellington RB Jonathan Cooper adds more stability to an average OL Carson Palmer profits from a nice group of WRs (Fitz, Floyd, Ginn) New York Giants Likely the second-best roster in the NFC East Gone: Hakeem Nicks; Added: Odell Beckham Jr. and Victor Cruz, so net gain in pass game Eli Manning and rook Andre Williams wild cards, along with New OC Ben McAdoo (expect more efficiency) Improved OL Promising DL needs time to gel (Jonathan Hankins, Damontre Moore, and Jay Bromley); Will Jason Pierre-Paul rise up? Washington Redskins A healthy Robert Griffin III DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, and TE Jordan Reed are good targets Below average defense, added Jason Hatcher Very good LBs (rookie Trent Murphy, Orakpo, ILB Akeem Jordan, Ryan Kerrigan) Liability is secondary Minnesota Vikings Playmakers Greg Jennings, Cordarrelle Patterson. Adrian Peterson Very good OL (Matt Khalil, John Sullivan and Phil Loadholt) Teddy Bridgewater learning curve is a wild card, will ascend later in season Average DL Xavier Rhodes is rose among thorny secondary LB is below average for now; Anthony Barr will ascend later in season Dallas Cowboys Strength will be offensive playmakers ---Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, DeMarco Murray and rookie Terrance Williams, but will be outscored in half their games with their bottom five defense Defense was below average then lost DE DeMarcus Ware (now with Broncos), LB Sean Lee ( tore his left ACL at the team's OTA ), and DE Jason Hatcher (to Redskins, has camp injury) Questionable choices in recent drafts along both lines Carolina Panthers Gone: Jordan Gross (retired), Steve Smith Cam Newton to Kelvin Benjamin is interesting, but...who else can you throw to? Cotchery (year 11)? Avant (9th year)? Underwood (178 lbs, waived by 3 different teams)? Secondary is well below average Well above average DL (Hardy, Chas Johnson Lotulelei) and LB corps (Kuechly) will keep them in it Atlanta Falcons Matt Ryan. Roddy White. Harry Douglas. Julio Jones are the playmakers. Check. Drafted: Jake Matthews OL. Check. Lost: Sean Weatherspoon. UhOh. Weak defense except for Desmond Trufant Some defensive changes in base nickel alignment will add more stress to D THE "CELLAR DWELLER FELLERS" Oakland Raiders---cream of the crap Significant improvement in Front 7 on D (Justin Tuck, LaMarr Woodley, Khalil Mack, Antonio Smith, Justin Ellis, Sio Moore) Gabe Jackson will be baptized early as OG James Jones a good red-zone target Matt Schaub or Derek Carr? Better decide early Maurice Jones-Drew Tennessee Titans The quarterback position is worrisome with Jake Locker. The transition to Ray Horton’s 3-4 doesn’t exactly fit the strength’s of the defensive personnel. Gone: Alterraun Verner (Tampa Bay) Kendall Wright the playmaker Will Justin Hunter be more consistent in Year 2? Above average OL through the last two drafts Bishop Sankey will get you fantasy points Houston Texans Ryan Fitzpatrick as the starter with backups Tom Savage and Case Keenum J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney are elite Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins will be nice, reliable targets for whoever is throwing them the football. Aging Arian Foster (7th season, tied his career average of 4.5 in 2013) Jacksonville Jaguars Henne or a raw Bortles? Oh, my. Slightly above average WRs, and young (Ace Sanders, Marqise Lee, Cecil Shorts, Mike Brown) Below-average OL means less time to throw Decent DL (Red Bryant, Chris Clemons, Walter Thurmond) Average LB corps Have a different order? A different logic? I want to hear from you. Convince me to change my Power Rankings on the as-yet-unpublished DraftTek Power Rankings Page! --Astro Edited June 18, 2014 by Astrobot
Kirby Jackson Posted June 18, 2014 Posted June 18, 2014 I will take a crack: 1. SF 2. Seattle 3. Denver 4. New Orleans 5. Green Bay 6. New England 7. Cincinnati 8. Indianapolis 9. Chicago 10. San Diego 11. Arizona 12. Philadelphia 13. Bills 14. Detroit 15. Pittsburgh 16. Washington 17. Tampa Bay 18. Jets 19. KC 20. St. Louis 21. Baltimore 22. Dallas 23. Atlanta 24. Carolina 25. Minnesota 26. Miami 27. Houston 28. Cleveland 29. Jacksonville 30. Oakland 31. Tennessee 32. NY Giants
Buftex Posted June 18, 2014 Posted June 18, 2014 Have no scientific reason for feeling this way, but I have a feeling the Saints are going to slide back some.
1B4IDie Posted June 18, 2014 Posted June 18, 2014 If that means the Bills would be #18 in Draft order. Then I would agree with that for Pre-Season 2015 draft order.
K D Posted June 18, 2014 Posted June 18, 2014 i dont want to start getting too much respect. i like it when we are the under dog. we aren't going to be able to surprise anybody if everyone is picking us as a possible playoff team
Astrobot Posted June 18, 2014 Author Posted June 18, 2014 Lost me at Ahmad Dixon Good catch. Change made. Have no scientific reason for feeling this way, but I have a feeling the Saints are going to slide back some. I could see them sliding down and Colts/Bears/Pats moving up. Need science or stats, though. Even informed intuition works. I will take a crack: 1. SF 2. Seattle 3. Denver 4. New Orleans 5. Green Bay 6. New England 7. Cincinnati 8. Indianapolis 9. Chicago 10. San Diego 11. Arizona 12. Philadelphia 13. Bills 14. Detroit 15. Pittsburgh 16. Washington 17. Tampa Bay 18. Jets 19. KC 20. St. Louis 21. Baltimore 22. Dallas 23. Atlanta 24. Carolina 25. Minnesota 26. Miami 27. Houston 28. Cleveland 29. Jacksonville 30. Oakland 31. Tennessee 32. NY Giants Interesting. Cincinnati and Arizona are the most hotly-ciontested teams among the guys on our Power Ranking team. Range so far for Bengals is between 4th (insane) and 13th. I'd love some help understanding either ranking. Arizona is worse. We have 3rd from one analyst, and 14th 15th, and 15th from three others. the other guys on the team are between those extremes.
Kirby Jackson Posted June 18, 2014 Posted June 18, 2014 Astro, my thoughts on Arizona and Cincy are similar. They are physical defensively, with an elite WR, a speed back on the verge of breaking out and so/so QB play. They are kind of diet SF/SEA with that physicality. I think Arizona is a little better because of their secondary but the AFC is a lot weaker so I have Cincy slightly ahead of them.
DanInUticaTampa Posted June 18, 2014 Posted June 18, 2014 Arizona should be higher, even if the AFC is weaker. Cards beat the Seahawks in seattle last year when it seemed impossible. Arizona might be the third best team in that conference. I put them ahead of the saints and packers honestly.
Big C Posted June 18, 2014 Posted June 18, 2014 Arizona should be higher, even if the AFC is weaker. Cards beat the Seahawks in seattle last year when it seemed impossible. Arizona might be the third best team in that conference. I put them ahead of the saints and packers honestly. Nah, with Aaron Rodgers healthy the Packers would have had the #2 seed in the NFC. Now that they have Lacy and have been working on the defense a little, I think they are looking pretty good. I like what the Saints have going on too, but I could see them sliding a little and still winning the division. I agree that the top 6 are the clearly superior bunch.
FireChan Posted June 18, 2014 Posted June 18, 2014 Arizona went 11-5 last year playing the Hawks and 49ers twice. If that's average, I hope the Bills are average.
DC Greg Posted June 18, 2014 Posted June 18, 2014 Interesting take. Not to be negative, but I tend to look at us as more of the wildcard category I guess. We could be a team to watch, but we could easily be 6-10 again. Redskins should be in the crap. I think they will be garbage this year. As bad or worse than last year.
Kirby Jackson Posted June 18, 2014 Posted June 18, 2014 Interesting take. Not to be negative, but I tend to look at us as more of the wildcard category I guess. We could be a team to watch, but we could easily be 6-10 again. Redskins should be in the crap. I think they will be garbage this year. As bad or worse than last year. I had the Bills as the 6 seed in the AFC on my list about 9-7ish. Unlike you though, I like Washington this year. You are obviously closer to it than I but I think RG will bounce back and has some nice weapons in Garçon, D Jax, Jordan Reed and Alfred Morris. They look like a high scoring team in a bad division to me. What is that you don't like about them Greg?
Haplo848 Posted June 18, 2014 Posted June 18, 2014 (edited) Preseason Edition This season, I'm inviting TBD to help with Power Ranking to determine the pick order for DraftTek mock drafts. I know it's early. But we actually have to have a pick order established in 2 weeks, and DraftTek Analysts need players in rank order for our Big Board in a month. So that we have something to argue about, here is my initial rank-order of teams. THE "TOP-SHELF SIX" San Francisco 49ers Tank Carradine, Corey Lemonier, and Aaron edge-rushing Navorro Bowman will miss games but I love Chris Borland -Shayne Skov - Patrick Willis, with Aaron Lynch in reserve. Jimmie Ward and Eric Reid S Colin Kaepernick Weapons galore: a healthy Michael Crabtree, added Stevie Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Baldwin, Bruce Ellington, Vernon Davis offensive line, wild card: Aldon Smith situation running back depth, can pound it but have speedsters (Gore, Hyde, Lattimore, Trey Millard, LaMichael James who is also PR and KR), distributing one ball to so many playmakers Denver Broncos Peyton Manning. Wild card is sharp dropoff behind him: Osweiler, Dysert, Renner Have aging Wes Welker, Added Emmanuel Sanders and Cody Latimer; Lost Eric Decker, slight improvement Julius Thomas=elite TE Ryan Clady returns, with Franklin, Ramirez on L side. Gone: Wesley Woodyard, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Champ Bailey New: Aqib Talib at LCB, DeMarcus Ware at RDE, T.J. Ward at SS and Bradley Roby at RCB opposite Talib Von Miller at SLB Seattle Seahawks The Champs Russell Wilson, then Tarvaris Jackson and Terrrelle Pryor Backfield of Marshawn Lynch (if he returns--same nonsense in Buffalo), Christine Michael, and Robert Turbin Paul Richardson new WR, Percy Harvin’s healthy, average after that. Michael Bowie replaces Breno Giacomini 0n the offensive line--net gain. Okung, Carpenter-Unger is left side Gone: Chris Clemons, Clinton McDonald and Red Bryant---net loss DL: Avril, Michael Bennett DE's above average,; DTs are Tony McDaniel (added) and Mebane, Kevin Williams which are above average. They added WLB Kevin Pierre-Louis (draft) Legion of Boom backfield is fully intact. New Orleans Saints Drew Brees then a big dropoff (McCown, Ryan Griffin, Logan Kilgore) WRs Brandin Cooks, Stills, Meachem, Colston, , added Brandon Coleman RB Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram; and Khiry Robinson and/or Tim Flanders could impress Jimmy Graham TE is red zone (have until July 15 to work out a long-term deal--then one year deal) Akiem Hicks and Cameron Jordan are NFL's underrated DEs Add Jairus Byrd with Kenny Vaccaro S, and you now have one of top 3 safety duos not a lot of depth New England Patriots Tom Brady OL still above average WRs Aaron Dobson or Josh Boyce will have to step up, Amendola, Edelman must show they're consistent, and Gronk must stay healthy. On DL, Dominique Easley's the wild card with his medical issues, but typical BB pick. Dont’a Hightower, Jerod Mayo and Jamie Collins is impressive LB group Secondary is Top 5: Darrelle Revis, Devin McCourty, Brandon Browner and Logan Ryan. Green Bay Packers Aaron Rodgers. Healthy. WR Weapons Davante Adams, Jeff Janis, Jared Abbrederis added in the draft. Randall Cobb is healthy. Bryan Bulaga is healthy and the line is average Pass Rush looks good. Julius Peppers, Clay Matthews Ha Ha Clinton-Dix adds the springy athleticism needed on the back end of the defense. Colt Lyerla and/or Jermichael Finley TE THE "PAY ATTENTION TEN" Philadelphia Eagles Chip Kelly is a factor; pace and efficiency are the key concepts Best OL in NFL Darren Sproles added to LeSean McCoy means full throttle without fatigue Jordan Matthews will be thrown into the fire right away and Jeremy Maclin’s back, Gone: DeSean Jackson TE Zach Ertz Wild card is back end of the D. Baltimore Ravens Restructuring mode...okay, they're rebuilding. Ozzie Newsome great drafts Mercenary Steve Smith brought in at wR Pitta returns Gary Kubiak’s calling the offense's plays Jeremy Zuttah>Gino Gradkowski at center Aging but still good D-Line (Ngata, Cody, Brandon Williams, Canty) and adds Jernigan LB unit is top five (Suggs, Dumervil, Daryl Smith, Upshaw, Arthur Brown, and now Mosley from draft) Terrance Brooks should be a fine complement to Matt Elam on the back end of the secondary. Kansas City Chiefs Wild card team in 2014 (9-0 at one point, then 2-5 down the stretch, turnover ratio of +18) Lost to Colts as Andrew Luck led the come-from-behind victory, a microcosm of their season Impressive D (Eric Berry, Jamaal Charles, Justin Houston, Tamba Hali, newbie Dee Ford) Wild card is Alex Smith OL losses will be costly (Branden Albert and Jon Asamoah) Chicago Bears O-Weapons: Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett, Matt Forte, and Ka’Deem Carey Wild card: Jay Cutler's health (career numbers, then got hurt) DL revamped, adding Lamarr Houston, Jared Allen, Willie Young, and rooks Ego Ferguson and Will Sutton. Chicago needs young LB to improve. CBs could be good if Kyle Fuller learns quickly from vets Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings Detroit Lions Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate, Brandon Pettigrew, Reggie Bush and Joique Bell. Add: Eric Ebron, Joseph Fauria, Ryan Broyles, Kris Durham, and Kevin Ogletree Sound offensive line Ndamukong Suh, Nick Fairley, and an improving Ziggy Ansah --nice D-Line Add: rookie Kyle Van Noy (who'd better learn quick from Stephen Tulloch and DeAndre Levy in LB corps) Two Too-new coordinators? St. Louis Rams With Buffalo, top NFL Defensive Line= Robert Quinn. Michael Brockers. Chris Long. Better depth than Buffalo though=Aaron Donald., William Hayes, Alex Carrington, Kendall Langford Learning curve for OL, but damn good at outset (Greg Robinson, getting Jake Long and Rodger Saffold) Zac Stacy and Sam Bradford. Tavon Austin: if he stays healthy he can help, but if injured, the unit is average at best (Brian Quick, Britt) The secondary is above average Indianapolis Colts Andrew Luck Added Hakeem Nicks Dwayne Allen returns OL needs development Robert Mathis suspended to start Zach Kerr and Josh Chapman at nose D’Qwell Jackson at MLB is above average Trent Richardson is a wild card Buffalo Bills RB is one of NFL's most-solid on paper (Spiller, Fred Jackson, Bryce Brown, Anthony Dixon, Fred Summers, Evan Rodriguez. Pick 3). The offensive line (Cordy Glenn, Chris Hairston, Eric Wood, Urbik, Kouandjio) gets 5 preseason games to jell WRs Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Mike Williams, Marquise Goodwin (TJ Graham, Easley, Hogan, Elliott) have speed to burn, and might keep 7, so good run-pass balance EJ Manuel is the wild card DL one of NFL's three best, I rank them #2 behind Rams due to Dareus's probable suspension (Mario Williams. Kyle Williams, Marcell Dareus, Alan Branch, Jerry Hughes, Lawson, Corbin Bryant, Jarius Wynn) Jerry Hughes was one of the NFL’s most efficient pass-rushers in 2013 per PFF Additions of thumper Brandon Spikes at MLB, Rivers at OLB, Alonso's range moves to OLB Gilmore, McKelvin, Robey, Graham at CB; Aaron Williams, Searcy at S is impressive backfield Cincinnati Bengals Loss of Anthony Collins and Michael Johnson in free agency Rookies Jeremy Hill and Darqueze Dennard will be thrown into the fire early Geno Atkins and Leon Hall return Andy Dalton--meh Tampa Bay Buccaneers Top spenders in Free Agency (Michael Johnson, Alterraun Verner, Clinton McDonald, Josh McCown, Oniel Cousins) Playmakers acquired in draft (6’5″ Mike Evans and 6’6″ Austin Seferian-Jenkins) Darrelle Revis is gone Lavonte David and Gerald McCoy, First-Team All-Pros excellent RBs Doug Martin, Mike James, and rookie Charles Sims THE "WILD CARD FIVE" Cleveland Browns Mike Pettine knows how to blitz, has some pieces to do it, but he's new Johnny Manziel is the wildest of wild cards Josh Gordon suspension will hurt Andrew Hawkins YAC slot guy Solid O-Line and D-Line Jordan Cameron is a freak Above-average D with Karlos Dansby, Donte Whitner, Pierre Desir New York Jets D-Line is disruptive, likely top 3 Rex Ryan's blitz schemes with Muhammad Wilkerson (DE is 2nd in NFL to Watt), Sheldon Richardson DT David Harris, rookie Calvin Pryor WR Eric Decker acquired, draft added Jace Amaro Geno Smith a wild card like Buffalo Loowest percentage of Elite and HQ players in division, per PFF 35% of team is in Poor or Below Avg. ability ranking, most in division per PFF Pittsburgh Steelers Shazier won't help them as much as they think Dick Lebeau’s defensive mind is a plus Shamarko Thomas and Markus Wheaton need to step up Picks Stephon Tuitt and Josh Mauro will play early, learn on the fly Some aging, some inexperienced players is biggest Achilles heel. OL is just below average except for David DeCastro Miami Dolphins Improved OL---Signing Branden Albert, Drafted Ju’Wuan James Ryan Tannehill needs to step up Mike Wallace, Jarvis Landry at WR are just above average No Elite players on team, per PFF DL is underrated (Olivier Vernon, Randy Starks, Jared Odrick) Average LBs, moved Koa Misi to MLB (not sure about how that'll go) Finnegan could be picked on in secondary but Brent Grimes at CB and Reshad Jones at S could help them Lamar Miller at RB is their wild card San Diego Chargers Overachieved in 2013 High-efficiency offense will help them, Rivers to Keenan Allen will help Beyond the secondary, defense is below average OL is below average but with quick passing, it won't have to be. THE "SEVERELY AVERAGE SEVEN" Arizona Cardinals DL is well above average (Calais Campbell and Darnell Dockett) One of the best secondaries in NFL (Patrick Peterson, Tyrann Mathieu, & rookie Deone Bucannon) Season-long suspension of Daryl Washington, and Karlos Dansby wasn’t re-signed Andre Ellington RB Jonathan Cooper adds more stability to an average OL Carson Palmer profits from a nice group of WRs (Fitz, Floyd, Ginn) New York Giants Likely the second-best roster in the NFC East Gone: Hakeem Nicks; Added: Odell Beckham Jr. and Victor Cruz, so net gain in pass game Eli Manning and rook Andre Williams wild cards, along with New OC Ben McAdoo (expect more efficiency) Improved OL Promising DL needs time to gel (Jonathan Hankins, Damontre Moore, and Jay Bromley); Will Jason Pierre-Paul rise up? Washington Redskins A healthy Robert Griffin III DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, and TE Jordan Reed are good targets Below average defense, added Jason Hatcher Very good LBs (rookie Trent Murphy, Orakpo, ILB Akeem Jordan, Ryan Kerrigan) Liability is secondary Minnesota Vikings Playmakers Greg Jennings, Cordarrelle Patterson. Adrian Peterson Very good OL (Matt Khalil, John Sullivan and Phil Loadholt) Teddy Bridgewater learning curve is a wild card, will ascend later in season Average DL Xavier Rhodes is rose among thorny secondary LB is below average for now; Anthony Barr will ascend later in season Dallas Cowboys Strength will be offensive playmakers ---Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, DeMarco Murray and rookie Terrance Williams, but will be outscored in half their games with their bottom five defense Defense was below average then lost DE DeMarcus Ware (now with Broncos), LB Sean Lee ( tore his left ACL at the team's OTA ), and DE Jason Hatcher (to Redskins, has camp injury) Questionable choices in recent drafts along both lines Carolina Panthers Gone: Jordan Gross (retired), Steve Smith Cam Newton to Kelvin Benjamin is interesting, but...who else can you throw to? Cotchery (year 11)? Avant (9th year)? Underwood (178 lbs, waived by 3 different teams)? Secondary is well below average Well above average DL (Hardy, Chas Johnson Lotulelei) and LB corps (Kuechly) will keep them in it Atlanta Falcons Matt Ryan. Roddy White. Harry Douglas. Julio Jones are the playmakers. Check. Drafted: Jake Matthews OL. Check. Lost: Sean Weatherspoon. UhOh. Weak defense except for Desmond Trufant Some defensive changes in base nickel alignment will add more stress to D THE "CELLAR DWELLER FELLERS" Oakland Raiders---cream of the crap Significant improvement in Front 7 on D (Justin Tuck, LaMarr Woodley, Khalil Mack, Antonio Smith, Justin Ellis, Sio Moore) Gabe Jackson will be baptized early as OG James Jones a good red-zone target Matt Schaub or Derek Carr? Better decide early Maurice Jones-Drew Tennessee Titans The quarterback position is worrisome with Jake Locker. The transition to Ray Horton’s 3-4 doesn’t exactly fit the strength’s of the defensive personnel. Gone: Alterraun Verner (Tampa Bay) Kendall Wright the playmaker Will Justin Hunter be more consistent in Year 2? Above average OL through the last two drafts Bishop Sankey will get you fantasy points Houston Texans Ryan Fitzpatrick as the starter with backups Tom Savage and Case Keenum J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney are elite Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins will be nice, reliable targets for whoever is throwing them the football. Aging Arian Foster (7th season, tied his career average of 4.5 in 2013) Jacksonville Jaguars Henne or a raw Bortles? Oh, my. Slightly above average WRs, and young (Ace Sanders, Marqise Lee, Cecil Shorts, Mike Brown) Below-average OL means less time to throw Decent DL (Red Bryant, Chris Clemons, Walter Thurmond) Average LB corps Have a different order? A different logic? I want to hear from you. Convince me to change my Power Rankings on the as-yet-unpublished DraftTek Power Rankings Page! --Astro My groups are somewhat similar, but here's how I'd do it (teams within groups in no particular order: Top Shelf Teams: San Francisco Seattle Denver New England New Orleans Very Good Teams: Green Bay Chicago Arizona On the Bubble: St. Louis Buffalo Philly Baltimore Indy San Diego Teams Still Good but on the Decline: Carolina Kansas City Cincinnati Average Teams: Detroit Tampa Bay Cleveland New York Jets Miami Pittsburgh 6-10 Teams: New York Giants Washington Dallas Atlanta Bottom of the Barrel: Tennessee Jacksonville Oakland Houston Minnesota Edited June 18, 2014 by Haplo848
DC Greg Posted June 18, 2014 Posted June 18, 2014 I had the Bills as the 6 seed in the AFC on my list about 9-7ish. Unlike you though, I like Washington this year. You are obviously closer to it than I but I think RG will bounce back and has some nice weapons in Garçon, D Jax, Jordan Reed and Alfred Morris. They look like a high scoring team in a bad division to me. What is that you don't like about them Greg? Mostly it rests on what I think of RGIII. Loved what he did in their offense in his first year. I believe his game rests on his ability to run with it. If he is a legitimate threat to take off, defenses have to account for that. Opens up the rest of his game and the rest of the offense. In his second season, that threat was gone. He was rarely going to run, and when he did it was not with everything he had to get to the goal line like the year before. You have to earn that threat by really taking off with it. You can't just trick defenses into coming out of coverage because you 'used' to be a running quarterback. The threat better be real, or they won't respect it. He could break out as a pocket passer I suppose. I just haven't seen it yet. He has an arm for sure, but I'm not convinced. You can say he was still nursing the injury, which is true, but it looked to me that because of the injury, he has made a mental decision to no longer run. Or he was coached not to run. Either way. Aside from him, new coach and a whole new system. Always going to be adjustment pains. Their defense was pretty trash last year. I think the stats hide how bad they really were. Fletcher was getting old but that is some serious leadership lost and a solid presence in the middle. With that division though... who knows. Maybe they have a shot.
Greg F Posted June 18, 2014 Posted June 18, 2014 If Jimmy Graham gets classified as a wide receiver the Saints will have to trim $5.3 million from the roster to keep him. Will be interesting to see how that works out.
Rubes Posted June 18, 2014 Posted June 18, 2014 I don't have a lot to add other than there really doesn't appear to be much of a gap between teams once you get past the top six. Pretty interesting, really.
DC Tom Posted June 18, 2014 Posted June 18, 2014 Swap the Giants and Bengals. The Bills...feel too high for me. You've got them slotted anywhere between 7th and 16th, and while I still can't see them as "top half of the league," half the teams in the league seem to be worse off. Were I "outside looking in" at the AFC East, I'd probably be saying "Yeah, they look good on paper...but they always do. They'll find a way to look like a Porsche, but run like a rusted-out Gremlin" and rank Miami above them (and possibly the Jets).
papazoid Posted June 18, 2014 Posted June 18, 2014 I'D SAY VEGAS IS A LITTLE MORE IMPARTIAL: Denver Broncos 6/1 Seattle Seahawks 13/2 San Francisco 49ers 17/2 New England Patriots 10/1 Green Bay Packers 14/1 New Orleans Saints 18/1 Chicago Bears 25/1 Indianapolis Colts 25/1 Philadelphia Eagles 30/1 Pittsburgh Steelers 32/1 Cincinnati Bengals 32/1 Detroit Lions 40/1 Baltimore Ravens 40/1 Carolina Panthers 40/1 New York Giants 45/1 Dallas Cowboys 48/1 Arizona Cardinals 50/1 San Diego Chargers 50/1 Kansas City Chiefs 50/1 St Louis Rams 50/1 Atlanta Falcons 52/1 Washington Redskins 55/1 Houston Texans 60/1 Miami Dolphins 65/1 New York Jets 70/1 Cleveland Browns 70/1 Buffalo Bills 75/1 Tampa Bay Buccanneers 75/1 Tennessee Titans 90/1 Minnesota Vikings 120/1 Oakland Raiders 150/1 Jacksonville Jaguars 250/1
DC Tom Posted June 18, 2014 Posted June 18, 2014 I'D SAY VEGAS IS A LITTLE MORE IMPARTIAL: Denver Broncos 6/1 Seattle Seahawks 13/2 San Francisco 49ers 17/2 New England Patriots 10/1 Green Bay Packers 14/1 New Orleans Saints 18/1 Chicago Bears 25/1 Indianapolis Colts 25/1 Philadelphia Eagles 30/1 Pittsburgh Steelers 32/1 Cincinnati Bengals 32/1 Detroit Lions 40/1 Baltimore Ravens 40/1 Carolina Panthers 40/1 New York Giants 45/1 Dallas Cowboys 48/1 Arizona Cardinals 50/1 San Diego Chargers 50/1 Kansas City Chiefs 50/1 St Louis Rams 50/1 Atlanta Falcons 52/1 Washington Redskins 55/1 Houston Texans 60/1 Miami Dolphins 65/1 New York Jets 70/1 Cleveland Browns 70/1 Buffalo Bills 75/1 Tampa Bay Buccanneers 75/1 Tennessee Titans 90/1 Minnesota Vikings 120/1 Oakland Raiders 150/1 Jacksonville Jaguars 250/1 There's a 119% chance of someone winning the Superbowl.
Recommended Posts