Which NFL team has the worst QB situation going into 2014?

[Kemp2Warlick]

ESPN NFL Nation ‏@ESPN_NFLNation 6m

Practice report: Couple of hiccups for Geno http://es.pn/1vZgO9l

[YoloinOhio]

Good breakdown of EJ, Geno & Glennon in 2013:

Michael Purinton @NickelCityBills · 2h

 

Classifying and Comparing Rookie Quarterback Play in 2013 http://sbn.to/1lDjibq

[thewildrabbit]

What this franchise doesn't need is another change in regimes, regardless how the team performs. It is very apparent that the staff recognized the OL deficiency because they brought in a veteran free agent guard and they used three draft choices on O-linemen.

 

I thought it was a mistake for Marrone to select the inexperienced Hackett to be his OC. I would have preferred Marrone selecting a more experienced OC and hired Hackett as a qb coach. Also, not having a veteran qb on the roster who could have served as a mentor to EJ would have been a smart move.

 

It is still early to make fair judgments but I like Whaley a lot and I thought the Marrone hire was a good hire. Time will tell.

I've been around long enough to realize that really good head coaches, GM's, OC's don't make the type of mistakes that these people have made, and then go on to build a winning team. We saw issues last year, and they didn't. We still see issues with the team this year.. This isn't about a 5 year plan. Its about building a solid team the very first year, and going forward from there.

 

About the only way I see the line advancing to an elite level is by getting those three rookies involved. Seantrel Henderson would have been a first round pick if not for his three positive drug tests at the U, and he admitted his problem during the combine. He compares to DJ Fluker, and could be the steal of the draft, and could get a starting position "if" he can stay clean. Cyril Richardson could start at OG, and with Kouandjio at RT the Bills could easily have a very dominate run blocking unit, and very good pass blocking unit. Not only that, they could finally have some depth. Some really big "if' here.

 

EJ needs more help then i saw last year. He needs a power run game that can make a 3rd and short so he isn't always under the gun to make a play, and the offense something other then running up the middle 70+% of the time. He needs more then just a WR coach as a mentor, and if they don't care to hire another coach then retain a veteran QB for guidance.

 

 

I will embrace a new regime if this staff can't get it together this year, and show some real progress by winning more then they lose.

Edited June 20, 2014 by FeartheLosing

[Orton's Arm]

Sometimes when one is pursuing a rigorous analysis of a player in a team sport the statistics don't necessarily reflect the caliber of a performance due to the talent level of the rest of the team. Very often the statistics for a qb are less meaningful when the qb is playing behind a very poor OL. Newton's receiver corps was below average. That certainly is a factor not reflected in passing statistics.

 

The Panthers were a 2-14 team prior to his acquistion. A few years later the team made the playoffs with a 12-4 record. If he wasn't the most instrumental player for the turn around then tell me who was?

 

From a bandwith approach to evaluating qb prospects Ponder should be coming into his own as a starter. The reality is that he is at best a pedestrian player. From a bandwith approach to evaluating qb prospects Newton should be a dismal failure. That has not been the case.

 

As many others have stated the Bills knew what they were getting when they drafted Manuel. He was a raw qb with physical tools and admirably character traits. Will he develop into a good franchise qb? Although I think so I'm not willing to make a declarative judgment on that issue at this early juncture. The success of this team is mostly based on how he performs. I'm willing to wait a little longer than you are before I go on to the next option.

 

> If he wasn't the most instrumental player for the turn around then tell me who was?

 

Newton's individual stats were no better his third year than his first. Yet the team's winning percentage was much better. This suggests that the Panthers added talent at other positions.

 

> From a bandwith approach to evaluating qb prospects Ponder should be coming into his own as a starter.

 

I'd wanted the Bills to draft Ponder, in large part because I felt he had the bandwidth necessary to be a good QB. This past season he had a QBR of 51.2--compared to 56.2 for Newton, and 55.1 for Fitzpatrick. While there's a chance Ponder will be the next Drew Brees story, it's much more likely that he'll never be more than a below average-starter/quality backup. The three traits I listed are not a guarantee of success. But if a first round QB is strong in those three areas, he's disproportionately likely to succeed.

 

> From a bandwith approach to evaluating qb prospects Newton should be a dismal failure.

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick is strong in two of the areas I mentioned (decision-making and passion for the game) and weak in a third (accuracy). Cam Newton seems reasonably strong in two of the three areas (accuracy and passion for the game) while being weak in the third (decision-making). This past season their QBRs were almost identical. The example of Cam Newton isn't going to convince me that good information processing is unimportant. I've read that it took over three seconds for Drew Bledsoe to see what Tom Brady could see in less than two.

 

> Will [Manuel] develop into a good franchise qb? Although I think so I'm not willing to make a declarative judgment . . .

 

Declarative judgement? I'm not willing to go that far with any of the three QBs on the roster. But the most likely scenario with any given young QB is that he'll be basically the same guy in the NFL that he was in college. Good coaching can help up to a point. But coaches can't create something out of nothing.

 

Manuel's information processing at the college level has already been discussed extensively. His accuracy at the college level was nothing special. It seemed like the vast majority of the time, Manuel threw it to his #1 target; with said target being wide open enough that he didn't have to fit the ball into a tight space. That's the guy you're most likely to get at the NFL level.

 

You could point out that Manuel has very good physical tools. My sense is that Manuel's very good physical tools are more like Losman's very good physical tools than they are like Cam Newton's freakishly good tools. As Losman himself discovered, the possession of Losman-like physical tools is not sufficient to compensate for Losman-like decision-making plus Losman-like accuracy.

[papazoid]

NFL: The 7 Worst Quarterbacks Set to Start in 2014

 

Read more: http://wallstcheatsheet.com/sports/nfl-the-7-worst-quarterbacks-set-to-start-in-2014.html/?a=viewall#ixzz35AHKmaA4

 

Spoiler Alert: EJ is not on the list.

 

 

[JohnC]

 

 

> If he wasn't the most instrumental player for the turn around then tell me who was?

 

Newton's individual stats were no better his third year than his first. Yet the team's winning percentage was much better. This suggests that the Panthers added talent at other positions.

 

The conclusions you draw from the major leap forward in the team's winning record is much different than my conclusions. If you take CM off last year's roster the Panther's 12-4 record would be in the range of 7-9 to 8-8 at best. On that issue the both of us are venturing opinions that can't be proved. I don't want to come off as being self-serving (arrogant) but I am very confident that Newton is the most impactful player on their roster and the main reason why the team's record took a dramatic leap forward compared to when he was not on the roster. The team's record was 2-14 prior to him joining the team progressing to 12-4 with him as the starting qb. I attribute most of that positive development to him, you don't We'll simply respectfully disagree on that point.

 

 

You could point out that Manuel has very good physical tools. My sense is that Manuel's very good physical tools are more like Losman's very good physical tools than they are like Cam Newton's freakishly good tools. As Losman himself discovered, the possession of Losman-like physical tools is not sufficient to compensate for Losman-like decision-making plus Losman-like accuracy.

 

You bring out an interesting issue (probably unintentional) un in your Losman comparison. Without intending to make my point you are actually reinforcing what I and many others have been trying to say. You simply don't know if a prospect with tools will translate those assets to the pro game. That is what we are watching to find out. It wasn't conclusively evident that Losman was going to be a failure during his rookie year. He had encouraging moments where one thought we finally found our qb. It became apparent that after a few years that it wasn't going to materialize.

 

What it comes down to is that I'm willing to wait longer than you are to see if Manuel is capable of being a starter. While you already want to go on to the next option I at this point don't. That's the issue where only time will tell.

Edited June 20, 2014 by JohnC

[YoloinOhio]

NFL: The 7 Worst Quarterbacks Set to Start in 2014

 

Read more: http://wallstcheatsh...l#ixzz35AHKmaA4

 

Spoiler Alert: EJ is not on the list.

All vets on the list, likely because we know what they are by now. I would swap out Alex Smith for Sam Bradford, personally. Smith isn't a stat superstar but he took a 2-14 team to the playoffs this past year and he was the main difference on the team from the previous year. Also, if I recall, he had the Chiefs in position to win that playoff game against the Colts even with the loss of Jamaal Charles and his defense had a severe meltdown.

 

Bradford is going into his 5th yr and seems to be regressing despite having a pretty decent team around him. Still no playoff game for him.

[Kirby Jackson]

All vets on the list, likely because we know what they are by now. I would swap out Alex Smith for Sam Bradford, personally. Smith isn't a stat superstar but he took a 2-14 team to the playoffs this past year and he was the main difference on the team from the previous year. Also, if I recall, he had the Chiefs in position to win that playoff game against the Colts even with the loss of Jamaal Charles and his defense had a severe meltdown.

 

Bradford is going into his 5th yr and seems to be regressing despite having a pretty decent team around him. Still no playoff game for him.

Smith has no business being on that list. He is the ultimate game manager (in a good way). He takes care of the football and makes plays when he needs to. In a weird way he is someone that I would love EJ to become. The Bills have lots of talent and if EJ can keep the chains moving and take care of the football they will be tough. Russell Wilson is pretty similar to Alex Smith in style.

[YoloinOhio]

Smith has no business being on that list. He is the ultimate game manager (in a good way). He takes care of the football and makes plays when he needs to. In a weird way he is someone that I would love EJ to become. The Bills have lots of talent and if EJ can keep the chains moving and take care of the football they will be tough. Russell Wilson is pretty similar to Alex Smith in style.

I agree that EJ could turn out to peak at the level of these 2 which could be just good enough to get us to the playoffs. He probably won't be a Manning/Brees or even a Rivers when it comes to taking over games with huge stats, but he could absolutely run an offense like Alex Smith and Russell Wilson do. Take what the defense gives you, ball control with the run game, don't make big mistakes, and make key plays on 3rd down and in the red zone. He isn't quite the freak that Cam Newton is, or even Kaepernick, but I do think he has some of their athletic traits too that will help him overcome some of the rawness of the pure QB stuff as he develops. He doesn't need to throw for 4000 yards. He just need to make the play when we need it and not turn the ball over. Edited June 20, 2014 by YoloinOhio

[K-9]

Good breakdown of EJ, Geno & Glennon in 2013:

Michael Purinton @NickelCityBills · 2h

 

Classifying and Comparing Rookie Quarterback Play in 2013 http://sbn.to/1lDjibq

 

But but but, yards per attempt, but but but mental bandwidth, but but but success from the pocket in college, but but but...

 

GO BILLS!!!

Edited June 20, 2014 by K-9

[Orton's Arm]

The conclusions you draw from the major leap forward in the team's winning record is much different than my conclusions. If you take CM off last year's roster the Panther's 12-4 record would be in the range of 7-9 to 8-8 at best. On that issue the both of us are venturing opinions that can't be proved. I don't want to come off as being self-serving (arrogant) but I am very confident that Newton is the most impactful player on their roster and the main reason why the team's record took a dramatic leap forward compared to when he was not on the roster. The team's record was 2-14 prior to him joining the team progressing to 12-4 with him as the starting qb. I attribute most of that positive development to him, you don't We'll simply respectfully disagree on that point.

 

You bring out an interesting issue (probably unintentional) un in your Losman comparison. Without intending to make my point you are actually reinforcing what I and many others have been trying to say. You simply don't know if a prospect with tools will translate those assets to the pro game. That is what we are watching to find out. It wasn't conclusively evident that Losman was going to be a failure during his rookie year. He had encouraging moments where one thought we finally found our qb. It became apparent that after a few years that it wasn't going to materialize.

 

What it comes down to is that I'm willing to wait longer than you are to see if Manuel is capable of being a starter. While you already want to go on to the next option I at this point don't. That's the issue where only time will tell.

 

> The team's record was 2-14 prior to him joining the team progressing to 12-4 with him as the starting qb.

 

The Panthers released Jake Delhomme prior to the 2010 season. During 2010, they had no one at the QB position; which is a big reason why they went 2-14. Cam Newton played well as a rookie, and was the single most important reason why their record in 2011 improved to 6-10. But he didn't play any better as a third year player than as a rookie. The primary reason for the improvement from 6-10 to 12-4 was improvement at non-QB positions.

 

> It wasn't conclusively evident that Losman was going to be a failure during his rookie year. He had encouraging moments . . .

 

As a college QB, Losman did not demonstrate good information processing ability. His accuracy was nothing special. His failure at the NFL level was predictable; and I predicted it. As did a number of others.

 

Based on the data available, could I have legitimately concluded, with 100% certainty, that Losman would fail? No. The failure probability was less than 100%. But it was extremely high. Having a QB like Losman or Manuel as your "plan for the future" is like buying a handful of lottery tickets and calling it a retirement plan. While it's nice when something like that works out, Manuel's presence on the roster should not preclude the Bills from taking other steps to address the quarterback position. Just as Losman's presence on the roster shouldn't have stopped the Bills from trading into the first round to draft Aaron Rodgers.

[Steve in Carolina]

I've been around long enough to realize that really good head coaches, GM's, OC's don't make the type of mistakes that these people have made, and then go on to build a winning team. We saw issues last year, and they didn't. We still see issues with the team this year.. This isn't about a 5 year plan. Its about building a solid team the very first year, and going forward from there.

 

About the only way I see the line advancing to an elite level is by getting those three rookies involved. Seantrel Henderson would have been a first round pick if not for his three positive drug tests at the U, and he admitted his problem during the combine. He compares to DJ Fluker, and could be the steal of the draft, and could get a starting position "if" he can stay clean. Cyril Richardson could start at OG, and with Kouandjio at RT the Bills could easily have a very dominate run blocking unit, and very good pass blocking unit. Not only that, they could finally have some depth. Some really big "if' here.

 

EJ needs more help then i saw last year. He needs a power run game that can make a 3rd and short so he isn't always under the gun to make a play, and the offense something other then running up the middle 70+% of the time. He needs more then just a WR coach as a mentor, and if they don't care to hire another coach then retain a veteran QB for guidance.

 

 

I will embrace a new regime if this staff can't get it together this year, and show some real progress by winning more then they lose.

+EJ has a QB coach this year. Please stop with the veteran QB crap. There is NO veteran worth a crap to waste a roster spot.

[Orton's Arm]

Good breakdown of EJ, Geno & Glennon in 2013:

 

Classifying and Comparing Rookie Quarterback Play in 2013 http://sbn.to/1lDjibq

Good link.

 

Below is the completion + drop rate for the three QBs:

 

Geno Smith: 67%

Glennon: 56%

Manuel: 56%

 

Manuel's and Geno's receivers had more drops than Glennon's receivers. (Stevie dropped more than his share of passes.) Manuel's passes were less likely to be defensed than Geno's or Glennon's passes. (Johnson and Woods were good at getting open.)

 

Below is the completion + drop rate when throwing inside the hash marks:

Manuel: 91%

Geno Smith: 70%

Glennon: 67%

 

Below is completion + drop percentage when throwing outside the hash marks:

Geno Smith: 64%

Glennon: 47%

Manuel: 31%

 

All three QBs are more accurate when throwing inside the hash marks. But Manuel in particular looks very accurate when throwing inside the hash marks, and completely inept when attempting to throw outside them.

Edited June 20, 2014 by Edwards' Arm

[JohnC]

About the only way I see the line advancing to an elite level is by getting those three rookies involved. Seantrel Henderson would have been a first round pick if not for his three positive drug tests at the U, and he admitted his problem during the combine. He compares to DJ Fluker, and could be the steal of the draft, and could get a starting position "if" he can stay clean. Cyril Richardson could start at OG, and with Kouandjio at RT the Bills could easily have a very dominate run blocking unit, and very good pass blocking unit. Not only that, they could finally have some depth. Some really big "if' here.

 

Let's not get carried away here. Fluker was a top tier prospect in last year's draft who played up to his high draft status. Henderson who was off most teams draft boards was picked by the Bills in the 7th round. That surely isn't an indication of a high level of confidence being placed on him succeeding in the league.

 

SH admitting to his drug issues is not necessarily a step in the right direction because every team already knew that he was suspended three times for the same type of drug infraction. The Bills weren't the only team he interviewed with; many other teams also interviewed him. Apparently they didn't find him convincing enough to waste a low round on him. That in itself is very telling.

 

In the latest OTA session that just concluded Henderson missed the first session because he had travel problems. That certainly isn't a good way to make a good impression on your prospective employer. If Henderson is able to earn a practice squad spot I will consider the late round pick a success story. If he makes the regular roster I will be pleasantly surprised. Last year many people got excited by the free agent draftee, Da'Rick Rogers, who also had a troubled college career. There are plenty of prospects with an abundance of physical talents who fail because they lack the character and discipline necessary to play in this challenging sport.

Edited June 20, 2014 by JohnC

[Luxy312]

Ponder took a sack more than 1 out of every 10 pass plays last season. Jennings himself said that he checks down way too much (which he does). You only get so many chances to improve in the NFL and then you get replaced. At this point, Bridgewater is the starter, Cassell is the backup and Ponder is the odd man out. No way I see it any differently than that.

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

Geno Smith must be on that list, if he starts

[thewildrabbit]

Let's not get carried away here. Fluker was a top tier prospect in last year's draft who played up to his high draft status. Henderson who was off most teams draft boards was picked by the Bills in the 7th round. That surely isn't an indication of a high level of confidence being placed on him succeeding in the league.

 

SH admitting to his drug issues is not necessarily a step in the right direction because every team already knew that he was suspended three times for the same type of drug infraction. The Bills weren't the only team he interviewed with; many other teams also interviewed him. Apparently they didn't find him convincing enough to waste a low round on him. That in itself is very telling.

 

In the latest OTA session that just concluded Henderson missed the first session because he had travel problems. That certainly isn't a good way to make a good impression on your prospective employer. If Henderson is able to earn a practice squad spot I will consider the late round pick a success story. If he makes the regular roster I will be pleasantly surprised. Last year many people got excited by the free agent draftee, Da'Rick Rogers, who also had a troubled college career. There are plenty of prospects with an abundance of physical talents who fail because they lack the character and discipline necessary to play in this challenging sport.

Those weren't entirely my words... Still I want to get carried away by this years draft. It might be the first time in more then a decade that more then one player drafted after the second round becomes a starter and makes an impact.

 

" Seantrel Henderson, T, 6-7, 331, Miami...Was touted as a first-round talent, Henderson is a big man, but he moves like a linebacker, likely due to his basketball background as he had Division I scholarship offers to play basketball. He often dominated games with 58 knockdown blocks and 10 touchdown blocks. - A similarly jaw-dropping combination of size and power as San Diego Chargers 2013 first round pick D.J. Fluker." he could be the steal of draft.''

 

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1737097/seantrel-henderson

 

Lets face it that many of the fans here really like what Whaley did in the draft this year. Second rounder Cyrus Kouandjio had medical issues that scared away other teams. Which is exactly what happened with Thurman Thomas back in the day. With only 16% body fat, and 35 5/8 inch arms he was pegging to go to the Dolphins with the 18th pick. His Alabama coaches went on to say that he could be better then Fluker in the pros.

 

COMPARES TO: D.J. Fluker, San Diego Chargers - Like his former teammate, Kouandjio offers the physical skill-set to make scouts drool.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1893144/cyrus-kouandjio

 

Cyril Richardson was projected to be drafted in rounds 3-4, and could become a solid starter if he can get his weight problem under control. Road grader with a nasty temperament is a good way to describe Mr Richardson.

 

About Da'Rick Rodgers and that 50+ page thread that is buried somewhere in here. I think Marrone fired his WR coach specifically for his appraisal of Rodgers, and he would still be a Buffalo Bill if not for that coach.

 

Anyway, I did say that there are some big "ifs" in my thinking of this years O line to become elite. The Bills did draft some real road graders for that line, and if nothing else that run game shouldn't be stopped on third and short.

 

+EJ has a QB coach this year. Please stop with the veteran QB crap. There is NO veteran worth a crap to waste a roster spot.

The team obviously preferred to keep Jeff Tuel over a vet, and exactly how many games did that win them last year? I know it lost them the Cleveland game, and probably the KC game. You know of any other teams that would keep three rookie QB's on the roster, and now three 2nd year QB's? It does greatly help young QB's to have an NFL experienced vet QB on the roster whether you care to believe it or not.

 

The Bills have added extra offensive coaches this year QB coach, senior offensive assistant, and even an assistant special teams coach.

[JohnC]

Those weren't entirely my words... Still I want to get carried away by this years draft. It might be the first time in more then a decade that more then one player drafted after the second round becomes a starter and makes an impact.

 

Which players after the first two picks do you believe will be starters this year? I don't see any. That is not to say that they weren't good picks at the point they were drafted.

 

" Seantrel Henderson, T, 6-7, 331, Miami...Was touted as a first-round talent, Henderson is a big man, but he moves like a linebacker, likely due to his basketball background as he had Division I scholarship offers to play basketball. He often dominated games with 58 knockdown blocks and 10 touchdown blocks. - A similarly jaw-dropping combination of size and power as San Diego Chargers 2013 first round pick D.J. Fluker." he could be the steal of draft.''

 

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1737097/seantrel-henderson

 

As I stated in the prior post Henderson was off the draft boards for many teams. He was a seventh round selection by the Bills. This multiple drug suspended college player tested positive for drugs at the combine. In the last OTAs this seventh round player missed the first day of this OTAs session because of travel complications.

 

If Henderson makes the practice squad I will be very happy. If Henderson makes the roster I will be pleasantly surprised. With respect to Da'Rick Rogers (an undrafted free agent) he got cut because he was simply beaten out by other fringe receivers.

 

 

[Luka]

I voted Minnesota, but there were several close seconds. The Bills look a whole lot better in that comparison and I think our weapons are far superior too.

 

Young guy who was viewed as the potential number 1 overall pick at one point and a veteran who has won games? I would have Houston, the Raiders and the Jets all worse off than the Vikings.

 

Smith has no business being on that list. He is the ultimate game manager (in a good way). He takes care of the football and makes plays when he needs to. In a weird way he is someone that I would love EJ to become. The Bills have lots of talent and if EJ can keep the chains moving and take care of the football they will be tough. Russell Wilson is pretty similar to Alex Smith in style.

 

Edited June 21, 2014 by Luka

[YoloinOhio]

Young guy who was viewed as the potential number 1 overall pick at one point and a veteran who has won games? I would have Houston, the Raiders and the Jets all worse off than the Vikings.

 

 

 

Not sure why this makes your head explode.. Alex Smith's mobility in the pocket is underrated. He ran Urban Meyer's offense at Utah and had 431 yards rushing this year with the Chiefs. He is a smart, prepared QB like Wilson and his ability to pass efficiently and manage the game is similar to Wilson as well.