Which NFL team has the worst QB situation going into 2014?

[K-9]

So based on your track record there is a 43% chance you are wrong about Manuel.

 

Now that I think about I believe Bledsoe should be thrown out. He did take the Patriots to a Super Bowl, I don't think he can be labeled a failure. Not that Bledsoe is either of these guys but Unitas was not successful with the Chargers nor was Namath with the Rams.

 

Therefore your track record is 50%.

 

That's appropriate because it's a 50/50 proposition that a QB is gonna pan out, anyway.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[thewildrabbit]

While Thaddeus Lewis looked somewhat better then EJ last season in both their limited starts, he should have. Lewis wasn't technically a rookie last season. Although he does have very limited NFL experience with one prior NFL start in 2012. Lewis signed with the Rams back in 2010 as an undrafted free agent soon after the NFL draft that year. The Rams waived him on Sept 4th of that year, and he was claimed by the Browns. He then spent nearly two seasons with the Browns on their regular roster, and practice squad. In 2012 Lewis started a game for the Browns against the Steelers #1 ranked defense, and went 22 of 32 for 204 yards one TD, one INT.

 

Lewis was waived by the Browns in May 2013, and the Lions claimed him. The Bills traded LB Chris White to the Lions for Lewis in August 2013, and placed him on the practice squad.

 

Lewis also has a much better pedigree from College where at Duke, 4 years, 47 games with a 127.69 QB rating while completing 59.4 percent of his passes for 10,065 yards, 67 TD's, 40 INT's. And he won all four bowl games at Duke while earning the nickname "the champ". Perhaps being 6'2'' 220 lbs is his biggest drawback. (more like 6'1'') Also, Lewis doesn't have a top NFL arm, and tends to throw behind his receivers. That is, when he isn't dumping off to the RB's. Lewis was invited to the scouting combine and Tuel was not. Tuel had a 6.9 yards avg in college. Lewis had a 6.7 yards avg in college. I honestly don't know why the Bills would let Lewis hit the practice squad, and not let Tuel near it.

 

 

OTOH, prototypical NFL QB EJ 6'5, 240 lbs with a cannon for an arm, and huge hands along with a great work ethic. Erik James spent two years behind Christian Ponder at Florida, and finished with 7741 passing yards, 47 TD's, 28 INT's. A 150.4 QB rating, 66.9 percentage. 8.6 yards avg. All this kid needs is good coaching, and more NFL experience. Don't forget that the late, great Bill Walsh stated that it generally takes 3-4 years to properly develop an NFL QB.

 

Now, the real question is, will EJ get the proper coaching from this current staff to elevate him into a top NFL QB. We will find out this year.

[K-9]

Now, the real question is, will EJ get the proper coaching from this current staff to elevate him into a top NFL QB. We will find out this year.

 

The real question is, will the fans and media tolerate the inevitable pitfalls he has during the course of the season or will lines start forming to attend the public lynchings because EJ hasn't fulfilled their misguided expectations.

 

If Manuel shows a steady progression, including the all important ability to overcome his poor plays and games (and he's gonna go through that), then we won't know much until after the 2015 season. He's gonna get his 1,000 attempts like a host of other decent QBs who've shown little their first two years in the league.

 

Just because he earned the starting job prematurely and is the best prospect we have at the position, that doesn't make him any less of the raw prospect everybody KNEW he was when he was drafted. It amazes me how so many quickly forgot that.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[YoloinOhio]

The real question is, will the fans and media tolerate the inevitable pitfalls he has during the course of the season or will lines start forming to attend the public lynchings because EJ hasn't fulfilled their misguided expectations.

 

If Manuel shows a steady progression, including the all important ability to overcome his poor plays and games (and he's gonna go through that), then we won't know much until after the 2015 season. He's gonna get his 1,000 attempts like a host of other decent QBs who've shown little their first two years in the league.

 

Just because he earned the starting job prematurely and is the best prospect we have at the position, that doesn't make him any less of the raw prospect everybody KNEW he was when he was drafted. It amazes me how so many quickly forgot that.

 

GO BILLS!!!

The answer is clearly to just keep drafting more rookies every year. Can never have too many inexperienced , raw QBs to split up the reps.

[papazoid]

The promising rookie who was ranked 29 in Total QBR in 2012 was Nick Foles...

 

and there's the example of a 6th round pick turning into an ALL -PRO QB.

 

or there's this list of 1st round QB's taken in the last 5 years (excluding 1st overall):

 

Sanchez

Freeman

Tebow

Locker

Gabbert

Ponder

Tannehill

Weeden

Griffin

Manuel

Edited June 17, 2014 by papazoid

[YoloinOhio]

and there's the example of a 6th round pick turning into an ALL -PRO QB.

 

or there's this list of 1st round QB's taken in the last 5 years (excluding 1st overall):

 

Sanchez

Freeman

Tebow

Locker

Gabbert

Ponder

Tannehill

Weeden

Griffin

Manuel

? Foles was actually drafted in the 3rd round, not the 6th rd... not sure of your point though. You want the Bills to draft a QB late?

[Best Player Available]

So the excuses are already starting that we won't know what EJ can do until after the 2015 season? And, that prediction is based on the fact that he got the job prematurely?

 

That's about the most absurd excuse ever for coddling a prospect. And, the GM and coach that would actually be silly enough to think that have no place in todays NFL.

But, IMO there is no GM or coach that would even consider that philosophy. Considering the team hasn't done squat in the 21st century.The pressure to win is a little more intense

than waiting till 2016 to see what a prospect can do.

[K-9]

So the excuses are already starting that we won't know what EJ can do until after the 2015 season? And, that prediction is based on the fact that he got the job prematurely?

 

That's about the most absurd excuse ever for coddling a prospect. And, the GM and coach that would actually be silly enough to think that have no place in todays NFL.

But, IMO there is no GM or coach that would even consider that philosophy. Considering the team hasn't done squat in the 21st century.The pressure to win is a little more intense

than waiting till 2016 to see what a prospect can do.

 

Please tell me what "excuses" I offered for EJ. Laughable. He doesn't need excuses. He needs reasons to keep the job.

 

Do you disagree that he won the job prematurely? Because that's EXACTLY what happened. He was supposed to redshirt his first year. That was the plan. Too bad Kevin Kolb couldn't beat him out.

 

Fact is, Manuel wasn't ready to be a full time starter last year. IMO, not even close. Just too raw of a prospect. Is classifying him as "raw' offering an "excuse?" That's just a simple fact. And EVERYBODY and his mother knew that going in.

 

Well, most people anyway.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Edited June 17, 2014 by K-9

[papazoid]

? Foles was actually drafted in the 3rd round, not the 6th rd... not sure of your point though. You want the Bills to draft a QB late?

 

that was a Tom Brady reference...you know, a lucky 1 in 1,000 pick.

 

my point is Manuel stunk last year and by my eyes, his upside will take him to mediocre (20th ranked) . based on his weaknesses, odds are very high he will never be a franchise qb. manuel is injury prone, he doesn't know how to slide or protect himself from contact when he runs. he got away with that in college because he was a superior athlete. he's not a superior athlete in the NFL. his accuracy is not good.

 

I hope he proves me wrong.

[YoloinOhio]

Fitzy!

 

 

@HoustonTexans: "He's a guy that earned the job." O'Brien names Ryan Fitzpatrick starting QB.

[chris heff]

While Thaddeus Lewis looked somewhat better then EJ last season in both their limited starts, he should have. Lewis wasn't technically a rookie last season. Although he does have very limited NFL experience with one prior NFL start in 2012. Lewis signed with the Rams back in 2010 as an undrafted free agent soon after the NFL draft that year. The Rams waived him on Sept 4th of that year, and he was claimed by the Browns. He then spent nearly two seasons with the Browns on their regular roster, and practice squad. In 2012 Lewis started a game for the Browns against the Steelers #1 ranked defense, and went 22 of 32 for 204 yards one TD, one INT.

 

Lewis was waived by the Browns in May 2013, and the Lions claimed him. The Bills traded LB Chris White to the Lions for Lewis in August 2013, and placed him on the practice squad.

 

Lewis also has a much better pedigree from College where at Duke, 4 years, 47 games with a 127.69 QB rating while completing 59.4 percent of his passes for 10,065 yards, 67 TD's, 40 INT's. And he won all four bowl games at Duke while earning the nickname "the champ". Perhaps being 6'2'' 220 lbs is his biggest drawback. (more like 6'1'') Also, Lewis doesn't have a top NFL arm, and tends to throw behind his receivers. That is, when he isn't dumping off to the RB's. Lewis was invited to the scouting combine and Tuel was not. Tuel had a 6.9 yards avg in college. Lewis had a 6.7 yards avg in college. I honestly don't know why the Bills would let Lewis hit the practice squad, and not let Tuel near it.

 

 

OTOH, prototypical NFL QB EJ 6'5, 240 lbs with a cannon for an arm, and huge hands along with a great work ethic. Erik James spent two years behind Christian Ponder at Florida, and finished with 7741 passing yards, 47 TD's, 28 INT's. A 150.4 QB rating, 66.9 percentage. 8.6 yards avg. All this kid needs is good coaching, and more NFL experience. Don't forget that the late, great Bill Walsh stated that it generally takes 3-4 years to properly develop an NFL QB.

 

Now, the real question is, will EJ get the proper coaching from this current staff to elevate him into a top NFL QB. We will find out this year.

Florida State

[Best Player Available]

Please tell me what "excuses" I offered for EJ. Laughable. He doesn't need excuses. He needs reasons to keep the job.

 

Do you disagree that he won the job prematurely? Because that's EXACTLY what happened. He was supposed to redshirt his first year. That was the plan. Too bad Kevin Kolb couldn't beat him out.

 

Fact is, Manuel wasn't ready to be a full time starter last year. IMO, not even close. Just too raw of a prospect. Is classifying him as "raw' offering an "excuse?" That's just a simple fact. And EVERYBODY and his mother knew that going in.

 

Well, most people anyway.

 

GO BILLS!!!

he won the job prematurely because past Kolb there was no plan B. There is no plan B this year either. Other than Lewis a guy who never will be or has been a starter.OBD is All in on a prospect who has been prematurely (your words) thrown into the fire. And yes I get it, your typical snide BS remarks and all.

 

Is it any wonder why the Bills have not developed a single QB since Kelly hung it up? The kid should be sitting on the bench until 2016. He is not an instant starter, his talent just isn't developed yet. Blame that on OBD. Some (maybe most) will not accept the inevitable (assuming he's upright for 16 games) that a 26 game sample is not enough to judge his talents. He's gone after this year unless he shows he can make the throws, stay on the field, and more importantly lead and win. His honeymoon period, and its understood his sample size is small, is over begining game one 2014. It didn't take much to realize he simply could not make or sometimes even attempt the throws last season.

 

This franchise is in Limbo and a QB that most considered a reach at 16 (Polian in shock I believe had him in the 4th or 5th round) he will not have the luxury of 3 full seasons to prove himself. None us can change the fact that Nix picked him at 16. I hope pans out but that was a head turning pick. More so than moving up for TJ Graham.

 

This is his year, I really hope he can take advantage of his shot.They have given him all the tools now. It's up to him to prove himself now.

[Orton's Arm]

Yolo in Buffalo: > None of the people paid to assess EJ were involved in any of the items you mentioned.

 

When the Denver Broncos used a first round pick on Tim Tebow, I didn't "trust the professionals" in Denver. Instead, I concluded--correctly--that Denver just squandered their first round pick. I think that most of the people on this site are often able to identify other teams' mistakes.

 

The front office for the Bills isn't any more paid or any more professional than the front office of the Broncos, the Detroit Lions, or any other NFL team. Ralph Wilson didn't have a magic formula for picking good front office people, as demonstrated by the organization's losing record and string of post-Kelly failures at QB. If I don't automatically trust the Cardinals or Lions or Raiders to do the right thing--and I don't--there is no objective reason I should extend this trust to the Bills. The fact that I like the Bills more than these other teams does not boost the Bills' organizational competence. Unfortunately.

 

Over 20 years of fanhood: > Drew Brees had a YPA of 6.2 year 2 and 5.9 year 3. Year one he played 1 game.

 

Drew Brees was an accomplished pocket passer in college. He needed time--lots of it!--to become an accomplished pocket passer in the NFL. Manuel wasn't an accomplished pocket passer in college; which is what people generally mean when they describe him as "raw." QBs who don't show good pocket passing ability in college almost never develop it in the NFL, regardless of the quantity or quality of time, coaching, or opportunities they are given.

 

Chris Heff: > Now that I think about I believe Bledsoe should be thrown out. He did take the Patriots to a Super Bowl, I don't think he can be labeled a failure.

 

Drew Bledsoe gave the Bills eight fantastic games. After that he became mediocre. In 2003--his second year as a Bill--he averaged 6.1 yards per attempt. In 2004, it was 6.5 yards per attempt. To put these numbers into perspective, Trent Edwards' career average is 6.5 yards per attempt. I personally would not trade away a first round pick for that. If you would make that trade, that's fine. You're entitled to your perspective.

Edited June 17, 2014 by Edwards' Arm

[JohnC]

 

Drew Brees was an accomplished pocket passer in college. He needed time--lots of it!--to become an accomplished pocket passer in the NFL. Manuel wasn't an accomplished pocket passer in college; which is what people generally mean when they describe him as "raw." QBs who don't show good pocket passing ability in college almost never develop it in the NFL, regardless of the quantity or quality of time, coaching, or opportunities they are given.

 

 

 

There is no doubt that Drew Brees was an accomplished pocket passer in college. His offense in college was a pro style offense. But it is unfair to criticize EJ as not being a good pocket qb in college. If you are going to reject EJ's prospects as a franchise qb based on his college game then you should do the same for Kaepernick, Cam Newton and Griffin. All three of these very talented pro qbs ran a run and gun style of offense that is problematic when transferred to the pro game.

 

I have had this discussion with you befoe (apologize for the repetition) but you have to expand your preferable style of qb play when predicting the success of a young qb. You need to carry a larger tool box because there is a variety of tools (style of play} that work in the NFL

 

EJ Manuel was never going to be an instant success because he simply wasn't prepared for the pro game. The organization found a qb prospect who had physical tools and a stellar character and work ethic. Our coaching staff and scouting staff knew what they were getting and what it would take to develop him. I hate when people use the word that it is a process but it is the best word to usewhen describing the development of this young qb.

 

This is going to be a very telling season for EJ. He had a full off-season and he is healthy. I think he is going to be a legitimate franchise qb. Will he be an upper tier qb? I doubt it. My major concern with him is his accuracy. I'm going to be patient in my assessment of him because I have no other choice.

Edited June 17, 2014 by JohnC

[thewildrabbit]

Going into last season with no NFL experienced OC, no QB coach whatsoever, or veteran QB on the roster wasn't the best way to coach up three rookie QB's in my view. Then expecting that rookie OC to set the game plans, call plays on game day ...all the while being the only tutor, mentor to the three rookie QB's on the roster was laying the entire offense on a coach who had never done any of that at the NFL level.

 

So, whats changed this year? Jim Hostler was added to the Bills coaching staff as "senior offensive assistant" . A man who spent the last 6 years as the WR coach for the Ravens, and has 16 years of NFL experience. Will this singular upgrade to the offense be enough to see EJ, and the other two young QB's develop properly? I know I'd be more confidant in the whole offensive situation if it were more of an "known" experienced QB coach. I'd also like to see a vet QB on the roster to help EJ & Lewis.

[BarleyNY]

Most of those teams have some hope (regardless of whether of not I like the young guys on the teams). Even Houston has Savage which provides a little. The Jets have Vick and Geno which qualifies as a short term possibility for some success and little to no opportunity for long term success. But Tampa Bay has neither with Glennon and McCown. TB gets my vote.

Edited June 18, 2014 by BarleyNY

[Orton's Arm]

There is no doubt that Drew Brees was an accomplished pocket passer in college. His offense in college was a pro style offense. But it is unfair to criticize EJ as not being a good pocket qb in college. If you are going to reject EJ's prospects as a franchise qb based on his college game then you should do the same for Kaepernick, Cam Newton and Griffin. All three of these very talented pro qbs ran a run and gun style of offense that is problematic when transferred to the pro game.

 

I have had this discussion with you befoe (apologize for the repetition) but you have to expand your preferable style of qb play when predicting the success of a young qb. You need to carry a larger tool box because there is a variety of tools (style of play} that work in the NFL

 

EJ Manuel was never going to be an instant success because he simply wasn't prepared for the pro game. The organization found a qb prospect who had physical tools and a stellar character and work ethic. Our coaching staff and scouting staff knew what they were getting and what it would take to develop him. I hate when people use the word that it is a process but it is the best word to usewhen describing the development of this young qb.

 

This is going to be a very telling season for EJ. He had a full off-season and he is healthy. I think he is going to be a legitimate franchise qb. Will he be an upper tier qb? I doubt it. My major concern with him is his accuracy. I'm going to be patient in my assessment of him because I have no other choice.

 

I didn't have time to research all the QBs you mentioned, so I decided to focus on Kaepernick. Kaepernick's career is off to a very good start. His team came close to winning the Super Bowl. His yards per attempt stat is strong. The 49ers have every reason to see him as their long-term answer at QB.

 

In looking at pre-draft evaluations of him, I saw that Mel Kiper and others raised concerns about his mechanics. They were also displeased by the fact he played in a pistol offense; and pointed out that the adjustment to the NFL would be bigger for him than for a QB in a pro-style offense. But I also found the following:

 

************

When his first and second options can’t get open, he does a good job of checking down to third and fourth receiving options.

************

 

The above is very important, because most college QBs lack the mental bandwidth necessary to excel at the NFL level. Good coaching cannot overcome such mental bandwidth limitations, any more than good coaching can cause a player to grow six inches taller. By throwing to his third and fourth receiving options, Kaepernick provided solid evidence of above-normal mental bandwidth. Kaepernick's flaws--the bad mechanics, the pistol offense in college--were correctable with good coaching.

 

Did EJ Manuel do anything on a college football field to suggest he had more mental bandwidth than Losman? As far as I can tell, he did not. That puts him in a very different category from Kaepernick.

Edited June 18, 2014 by Edwards' Arm

[thewildrabbit]

There is no question that EJ is going to be one of those QB's that take 3-4 years to fully develop, and at the end of those four years he has the skill set to become an elite QB. He has the cannon for an arm, the mobility / escape-ability, quick release, the prototypical height-weight. I think the realists here at TBD understand that it is going to take time for this young man to develop, and we can only hope that Hackett doesn't screw him into the ground in the process.

 

I don't see the Bills making the playoffs this year, and I also think the drafting of Watkins along with the dumping of SJ will cause more growing pains. This may sound crazy to some, but I like EJ more then Kaepernick, and actually think he has more upside as a pocket passer. Watching EJ run a two min drill was a thing of beauty. He just needs the playing experience and correct development.

[YoloinOhio]

that was a Tom Brady reference...you know, a lucky 1 in 1,000 pick.

 

my point is Manuel stunk last year and by my eyes, his upside will take him to mediocre (20th ranked) . based on his weaknesses, odds are very high he will never be a franchise qb. manuel is injury prone, he doesn't know how to slide or protect himself from contact when he runs. he got away with that in college because he was a superior athlete. he's not a superior athlete in the NFL. his accuracy is not good.

 

I hope he proves me wrong.

Foles was a lucky 1 in 1000 pick? He was a 3rd round pick who progressed his 2nd year. Is that so rare? He had a up and down rookie season in which he played half a season, got hurt, and was ranked 29th in total QBR. The next year he progressed and took his team to the playoffs. That was my point when you said the Bills had a very bad QB situation because EJ ended his rookie year ranked 29th in total QBR,

 

Yolo in Buffalo: > None of the people paid to assess EJ were involved in any of the items you mentioned.

 

When the Denver Broncos used a first round pick on Tim Tebow, I didn't "trust the professionals" in Denver. Instead, I concluded--correctly--that Denver just squandered their first round pick. I think that most of the people on this site are often able to identify other teams' mistakes.

 

The front office for the Bills isn't any more paid or any more professional than the front office of the Broncos, the Detroit Lions, or any other NFL team. Ralph Wilson didn't have a magic formula for picking good front office people, as demonstrated by the organization's losing record and string of post-Kelly failures at QB. If I don't automatically trust the Cardinals or Lions or Raiders to do the right thing--and I don't--there is no objective reason I should extend this trust to the Bills. The fact that I like the Bills more than these other teams does not boost the Bills' organizational competence. Unfortunately.

 

Over 20 years of fanhood: > Drew Brees had a YPA of 6.2 year 2 and 5.9 year 3. Year one he played 1 game.

 

Drew Brees was an accomplished pocket passer in college. He needed time--lots of it!--to become an accomplished pocket passer in the NFL. Manuel wasn't an accomplished pocket passer in college; which is what people generally mean when they describe him as "raw." QBs who don't show good pocket passing ability in college almost never develop it in the NFL, regardless of the quantity or quality of time, coaching, or opportunities they are given.

 

Chris Heff: > Now that I think about I believe Bledsoe should be thrown out. He did take the Patriots to a Super Bowl, I don't think he can be labeled a failure.

 

Drew Bledsoe gave the Bills eight fantastic games. After that he became mediocre. In 2003--his second year as a Bill--he averaged 6.1 yards per attempt. In 2004, it was 6.5 yards per attempt. To put these numbers into perspective, Trent Edwards' career average is 6.5 yards per attempt. I personally would not trade away a first round pick for that. If you would make that trade, that's fine. You're entitled to your perspective.

No offense to you, me or anyone else on this board as a fan but I'll still trust the people who actually work in the NFL and know significantly more about the QBs to decide whether EJ is better than Thad until there is evidence to the contrary. Even if the Broncos did draft Tebow. Edited June 18, 2014 by YoloinOhio

[JohnC]

 

 

I didn't have time to research all the QBs you mentioned, so I decided to focus on Kaepernick. Kaepernick's career is off to a very good start. His team came close to winning the Super Bowl. His yards per attempt stat is strong. The 49ers have every reason to see him as their long-term answer at QB.

 

In looking at pre-draft evaluations of him, I saw that Mel Kiper and others raised concerns about his mechanics. They were also displeased by the fact he played in a pistol offense; and pointed out that the adjustment to the NFL would be bigger for him than for a QB in a pro-style offense. But I also found the following:

 

************

When his first and second options can’t get open, he does a good job of checking down to third and fourth receiving options.

************

 

The above is very important, because most college QBs lack the mental bandwidth necessary to excel at the NFL level. Good coaching cannot overcome such mental bandwidth limitations, any more than good coaching can cause a player to grow six inches taller. By throwing to his third and fourth receiving options, Kaepernick provided solid evidence of above-normal mental bandwidth. Kaepernick's flaws--the bad mechanics, the pistol offense in college--were correctable with good coaching.

 

Did EJ Manuel do anything on a college football field to suggest he had more mental bandwidth than Losman? As far as I can tell, he did not. That puts him in a very different category from Kaepernick.

 

The reason why EJ didn't exhibit the "bandwith" traits that you believe are a necessity for success in the pro game is that his offense in college was, as most college offenses are, a more simplistic one or two read offense. Cam Newton was the first pick in his draft year. Based on your "bandwith" standard you would have disqualified him as a good prospect. No pro coach or scout is going to attribute a high level of bandwith to Newton. Yet, as a young qb he has been a resounding success. How do you square that with your ironclad standard?

 

There was a number of questions regarding Kaepernick's style of play in college. There were also questions about his mechanics (as you noted). Yet the 49ers moved up in the second round to take him at the expense of the Raiders who were going to take him in the second round. Keapernick had impressive tools and a strong work ethic. He was drafted on potential. The point I'm making is just because a qb prospect isn't a finished product coming out of college that doesn't mean that the prospect can't develop into a quality franchise qb. Kaepernick mostly sat on the bench in his rookie year.

 

The longstanding criticism I have in your evaluations of qb prospects is that you are uncompromisingly chasing a dream prospect that rarely exists. The Andrew Luck type of prospect who fullfills your "gold plated bandwith standard" come along once in a generation. On top of that when they do come along you have to be the first team drafting to acquire this dream boat prospect.

 

My advice to you (frequently given) is don't out of hand dismiss EJ or any other qb prospect because the player doesn't fit into your preferred mold. There are a variety of styles of qb play that can be successful. Roethlisberger/Brees/Brady/Newton/Favre etc play different styles.

 

There is nothing wrong or unusual with young qbs struggling on the field. That's simply the norm. Before you make any declarative statements on EJ I suggest that you wait and see how he plays this year. Then I will be more receptive to your clarion calls of failure before the fact.

Edited June 18, 2014 by JohnC