Which NFL team has the worst QB situation going into 2014?

[papazoid]

True but to be fair it is just a made-up list in response to another thread in which it was commented something to that effect. I only put him on the list for that reason. He wouldn't make my "worst QB situation list" in reality.

 

I think it more than fair that any starting QB ranked 25th or worst in QB Rating and Total QBR be on everyones top 10 worst QB list.

 

granted the sample size is small (300 passes), but to me, EJ's upside is maybe 20th best, which isn't good enough.

[YoloinOhio]

I think it more than fair that any starting QB ranked 25th or worst in QB Rating and Total QBR be on everyones top 10 worst QB list.

 

granted the sample size is small (300 passes), but to me, EJ's upside is maybe 20th best, which isn't good enough.

It isn't a vote on the top 10 worst QBs of 2013.... It is a list of worst QB "situations" going into 2014. If you have a rookie going into his 2nd yr with promise you might look at that as a better situation than having a retread or something with low upside. Or not.

[atlbillsfan1975]

Interesting that Fitz seems to be garnering the most votes.

 

Jax gets my vote. Then Minnesota, and Cleveland. Then, I would have to say us.

Fitz is not a starter and Houston is trying to make him one. They have a great D but unfortunately you have to have an above average QB in today's game to win. I would take my chances with a second year EJ who showed flashes of being good over Fitz- he is what he is and will never get better.

[papazoid]

It isn't a vote on the top 10 worst QBs of 2013.... It is a list of worst QB "situations" going into 2014. If you have a rookie going into his 2nd yr with promise you might look at that as a better situation than having a retread or something with low upside. Or not.

 

promising rookie ranked 29th = EJ Manuel

 

retread = thad lewis

 

low upside = jeff tuel

 

very bad situation = buffalo bills

[OCinBuffalo]

The Bill QB situation is literally the best on that list.

 

Partially becuase I think EJ pulls out the shocker this year. Partially because other than Manziel, where's the upside? What's the very best we can expect from EJ? A lot more than the rest of that list. And, we might as well compare on upside...because if things go the other way, who cares?

 

It's not like this league is about developing players anymore. Everybody thinks Hot Pockets is the way to go now, even with QB. (Hehehe....I got a Hot Pockets reference in) That's the one thing that's interesting, for me, about Marone. He does want to take a "program" approach, and develop players, and I think that may be a secret weapon of sorts.

 

It usually pays to NOT be doing what everybody else is in the NFL. Example: Belechick playing 3-4 when everybody else was playing a 4-3....meant all the elite 34 LBs/NTs/34 DEs went straight to him in the draft/FA(which is why Kiper said they may lose all their games in 2000. He was thinking in terms of what every other team was doing, and not seeing what the Pats were doing.) Easy to build a great team when nobody else is competing for the players you need.

 

Thus, if everbody is looking for guys to "play now", you can clean up with "upside/project" players.

[LB3]

 

 

I would add Baltimore too. Joe Flacco hasn't been anything but average his entire career. Sure he's been on a team to win a Superbowl, but he's been nothing more than a game manager. None the less, I think you hit the nail on the head on Bradford.

 

Flacco was the furthest thing from a game manager when they won the Super Bowl. Check out his playoff stats that year. He was brilliant. Based on that run alone I wouldn't put Baltimore anywhere near the list, even if he has had an average career.

[YoloinOhio]

promising rookie ranked 29th = EJ Manuel

 

retread = thad lewis

 

low upside = jeff tuel

 

very bad situation = buffalo bills

The promising rookie who was ranked 29 in Total QBR in 2012 was Nick Foles...

[thewildrabbit]

Yeah, The love for Thad in this town, I think is infounded, similarily, the hate for Tuel is also unfounded.

I actually like Tuel better as a prospect. Until, "the throw" vs. KC, i thought he moved the team better than any Bills QB last year.

Sure, it wasn't great, or maybe even good, but it didn't have to be, to be our best from last year.

I think he got the ball out to the right guy faster than the other two..... Tuel's arm still scares me, but I think he is a decent prospect; a good guy to have as your third-stringer especially because he too, enters his second season as a Bill in this offense.

I give EJ more of a bump entering his second year, because he works hard, sez all the right things, and has the skills needed to play at the ralph.

I do think we have a little more than just EJ though..... Thad did surprise me in the last game of the season, so even though I think he is over-rated in Buffalo, I think his game might surprise me again.

EJ's inaccuracies do raise my eye brow a little, but I also understand he is a raw piece of clay that has come a long way, but still has a long way to go before, the way they want him to play, becomes second nature.

Lastly, I am one of the few that was glad to see Tuel buffed-up coming to camp. Maybe his arm is a little stronger but surely, he will be less prone to injury and things of that nature.

I don't know who has the worst set of QBs; but I can tell you who has the best team to, "grow" a great NFL QB. That would be Buffalo...

 

Go Bills!

What happens when an unknown QB steps in behind center is that opposing teams usually prefer to sit in coverage's to see what the new QB's tendency's are rather then blitz. Their policy is its better to play it safe then be burned. This is why some new QB's can look surprisingly good until teams figure out how to defend against them. A well scripted, disciplined offense can hide certain tendencies for quite a long time but eventually the defensive minds will figure out what they are and neutralize them. Which is why you need a QB with a strong, powerful NFL arm, a quick release, and an even faster ability to read a defense and understand where the ball has to go. Jeff Tuel has only one of those abilities that I see.

 

Jeff Tuel did exactly what you would expect an undrafted free agent QB who only won 4 of 26 games in college to do in a critical NFL situation....he choked!! Think about it, 4 wins, 22 losses. I have to think that most experienced NFL OC's would have never put the ball in that rookies hands on 3rd and goal. They would have gone the conservative route and ran it again on third down, and should that fail, they then kick a field goal. But alas, the Bills have an NFL rookie OC calling plays. I blame that loss more on the coaches then the bad execution of the play....which should have been anticipated. I suppose they forgot about the deer in headlights QB that took the field against Cleveland after EJ left the game.

 

Tuel reminds me a lot of a of a mini-me of Ryan Fitzpatrick, smart, quick release, and has good quickness for escape-ability. That said, he doesn't have the NFL journeyman experience or ability to call protections or read defenses, much less the ability to find the open receiver and deliver the ball to them in under 2 seconds consistently.

 

Tuels college career. 2009- 6 games, 2010- 12 games, 2011- 3 games, 2012- 10 games. He appeared in 31 games, and the team won only 5 of those games. http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jeff-tuel-1/gamelog/

 

Most fans don't understand the need for an NFL experienced veteran play caller to help those rookies, and that's OK because this regime doesn't get it either. Going into a season with basically three rookie QB's, and no veteran NFL experience at their level, no QB coach at all. Was about as intelligent as replacing the teams best OG with the utter garbage that was outright cut after six weeks.

 

 

Anyway, I don't think anyone here hates Jeff Tuel or think he sucks so badly that he shouldn't be given a chance. I think I get why the Bills want to keep Tuel on the roster, as the kid can run a wide open passing offense (if he can stay healthy), and he was brought in for a pre draft visit by the Patriots. I just don't think they realize how much it hinders the growth of the other two rookies, or hinders the teams ability to win games when the starter goes out.

 

I can't think of another NFL team carrying three rookie QB's or even three 2nd year QB's on the roster...ever.

Edited June 17, 2014 by FeartheLosing

[Orton's Arm]

Nice breakdown. Just curious though... why you think EJ and Geno are likely busts after less than 1 season, but Locker after 3 seasons could still develop into a starter (even though his own team doesn't believe that otherwise they would have picked up his 5th yr option based on what QBs are now getting)?

 

Valid question.

1) Going into the draft, I thought Locker was a much better pro prospect than either Manuel or Geno Smith.

2) He's averaged 6.9 yards per attempt the last two seasons. To put that number into perspective, Trent Edwards' career average was 6.5 yards per attempt; and Fitzpatrick usually averaged 6.7 yards per attempt while he was here. Tom Brady's career average is 7.5 yards per attempt.

 

Locker's numbers put him closer to the Edwards/Fitzpatrick category than the Brady category. But he's still young, and there's a chance for improvement. Sometimes, a guy who was an accomplished pocket passer in college will eventually become a good pocket passer in the NFL. That was the case with Drew Brees. But if a guy didn't show certain things in college, odds are very heavily against his ever demonstrating those traits in the NFL.

[Orton's Arm]

Hoyer played in 2 games last year (he only played about 2 series of the Bills game). His better game of the 2 was against the Bengals at home. He threw for 269 and 2 TDs and 0 INTs. Thad Lewis threw for 216 and 2 TDs plus ran for a TD, and 0 INTs against the same Bengals team. Thad also had a long completing to Goodwin called back that should have been a 1st down that they ruled a drop but it clearly was caught. The difference in those two games is the Browns gave up 6 pts and the Bills gave up 27. I know you are comparing Hoyer to EJ but I don't even think he is better than Thad.

 

If you take away draft position, what about Manuel makes you believe he's a better football player than Thad Lewis?

 

If I were to rank the four QBs based only on what they achieved last season, I'd put them in the following order:

 

1) Thad Lewis (6.9 yards per attempt last season)

2a) EJ Manuel (6.4 yards per attempt last season)

2b) Hoyer (6.4 yards per attempt last season)

4) Tuel (5.2 yards per attempt)

 

In fairness to Tuel, I really liked what I saw during most of the KC game. But until he starts doing a lot better than 5.2 yards per attempt, he doesn't deserve better than last place on a list like this.

Edited June 17, 2014 by Edwards' Arm

[YoloinOhio]

If you take away draft position, what about Manuel makes you believe he's a better football player than Thad Lewis?

 

If I were to rank the four QBs based only on what they achieved last season, I'd put them in the following order:

 

1) Thad Lewis (6.9 yards per attempt last season)

2a) EJ Manuel (6.4 yards per attempt last season)

2b) Hoyer (6.4 yards per attempt last season)

4) Tuel (5.2 yards per attempt)

 

In fairness to Tuel, I really liked what I saw during most of the KC game. But until he starts doing a lot better than 5.2 yards per attempt, he doesn't deserve better than last place on a list like this.

You are ranking your QB achievements based on ypa only?

[Kirby Jackson]

You are ranking your QB achievements based on ypa only?

Of course he is, that is why he values Captain Checkdown's contributions so much.

[Manther]

Is ours the worst? I don't think so....

I voted Houston, but, Tennessee is right there too.

[DC Greg]

Houston... LOL

 

Ryan Pickspatrick. Another year older, another year slower. God please let him start for the comedy. I know, I know... real nice guy. Wears his wedding ring in games and millenium falcon t shirts in interviews... gnarly. Sorry to say I'm rooting for some hilarity coming out of Houston at that position this year.

Edited June 17, 2014 by DC Greg

[Orton's Arm]

You are ranking your QB achievements based on ypa only?

 

Yards per attempt is a good starting point for evaluating QB play. For example: Trent Edwards has a career average of 6.5 yards per attempt; Losman 6.6 yards per attempt. While he was here, Fitzpatrick typically averaged 6.7 - 6.8 yards per attempt. On the other hand, Tom Brady has a career average of 7.5 yards per attempt; Peyton Manning 7.6 yards per attempt, Drew Brees 7.5 yards per attempt; Jim Kelly 7.4 yards per attempt, and Kurt Warner 7.9 yards per attempt. Yards per attempt isn't an exact tool. You can't say, for example, that Peyton Manning was slightly better than Tom Brady due to the small difference in yards per attempt.

 

In terms of the eyeball test, Thad Lewis looked to me like he was playing at a higher level than Manuel. The fact that Lewis also put up a higher yards per attempt than Manuel confirms my subjective assessment of the two QBs. But are there other important numbers I'm neglecting?

 

Manuel threw 11 TDs to 9 INTs; for a 1.2 TD/INT ratio. Lewis threw 4 TDs to 3 INTs for a 1.3 TD/INT ratio. Not a huge difference there. Manuel took 28 sacks on 306 attempts, for a 9.1% sack rate. Lewis took 18 sacks on 157 attempts for an 11.4% sack rate. A slight advantage goes to Manuel on that one. Manuel averaged 3.5 yards per rush; compared to 2.2 yards per rush for Thad Lewis. That's another advantage for Manuel.

 

But despite the difference in sack percentage and yards per rushing attempt; I think it's clear that during 2013 Thad Lewis outperformed Manuel by a substantial margin. 1.0 yards per attempt separates Trent Edwards from Tom Brady. 0.5 yards per attempt separates Manuel's performance in 2013 from Thad Lewis'. Manuel's edge over Lewis in sack avoidance and running the ball is worth something, but not 0.5 yards per attempt.

Edited June 17, 2014 by Edwards' Arm

[YoloinOhio]

Yards per attempt is a good starting point for evaluating QB play. For example: Trent Edwards has a career average of 6.5 yards per attempt; Losman 6.6 yards per attempt. While he was here, Fitzpatrick typically averaged 6.7 - 6.8 yards per attempt. On the other hand, Tom Brady has a career average of 7.5 yards per attempt; Peyton Manning 7.6 yards per attempt, Drew Brees 7.5 yards per attempt; Jim Kelly 7.4 yards per attempt, and Kurt Warner 7.9 yards per attempt. Yards per attempt isn't an exact tool. You can't say, for example, that Peyton Manning was slightly better than Tom Brady due to the small difference in yards per attempt.

 

In terms of the eyeball test, Thad Lewis looked to me like he was playing at a higher level than Manuel. The fact that Lewis also put up a higher yards per attempt than Manuel confirms my subjective assessment of the two QBs. But are there other important numbers I'm neglecting?

 

Manuel threw 11 TDs to 9 INTs; for a 1.2 TD/INT ratio. Lewis threw 4 TDs to 3 INTs for a 1.3 TD/INT ratio. Not a huge difference there. Manuel took 28 sacks on 306 attempts, for a 9.1% sack rate. Lewis took 18 sacks on 157 attempts for an 11.4% sack rate. A slight advantage goes to Manuel on that one; but not enough to offset Lewis' very substantial advantage in yards per attempt.

"Good starting point" and anything surmising a "confirmation" doesn't work. I respect your opinion (mine often varies from the norm as well) but your opinion = your subjective assessment. If Thad was a better or even as good of an NFL QB as EJ he would be competing for the starting job here, or somewhere else. To answer your original question about what, outside of their draft order, makes me think EJ is the better QB - it is that the people paid to make those assessments made it and I don't need to do my own assessment. I have no evidence that they are incorrect, at least at this point. Edited June 17, 2014 by YoloinOhio

[Orton's Arm]

"Good starting point" and anything surmising a "confirmation" doesn't work. I respect your opinion (mine often varies from the norm as well) but your opinion = your subjective assessment. If Thad was a better or even as good of an NFL QB as EJ he would be competing for the starting job here, or somewhere else. To answer your original question about what, outside of their draft order, makes me think EJ is the better QB - it is that the people paid to make those assessments made it and I don't need to do my own assessment. I have no evidence that they are incorrect, at least at this point.

 

> If Thad was a better or even as good of an NFL QB as EJ he would be competing for the starting job here, or somewhere else.

 

Unless EJ improves substantially on his rookie performance, he won't be the long-term answer as a starter. Or probably even as a backup. The Bills' front office is obviously confident he will improve; which is why they didn't draft his replacement; and why they traded away next year's #1 pick. Whether this confidence is justified remains to be seen.

 

I also think it's clear NFL GMs underestimated Thad Lewis. I'm not suggesting he's the long-term answer as starter. But he'd be a solid backup; and should have been more sought-after prior to the 2013 season.

 

> it is that the people paid to make those assessments made it and I don't need to do my own assessment

 

The people paid to make these assessments used a 2nd round pick on Todd Collins, a 3rd round pick on Billy Joe Hobart, a 1st round pick on Rob Johnson, a 1st round pick on an aging Drew Bledsoe, a 1st round pick on Losman, and a 3rd round pick on Trent Edwards. Then they awarded a starter-caliber contract to Ryan Fitzpatrick.

 

I correctly predicted the failure of Hobart, Bledsoe, Losman, and Fitzpatrick. I incorrectly placed hope in Johnson, Holcomb, and Edwards. By no means am I perfect or close to perfect. But neither is the Bills' front office.

Edited June 17, 2014 by Edwards' Arm

[YoloinOhio]

> If Thad was a better or even as good of an NFL QB as EJ he would be competing for the starting job here, or somewhere else.

 

Unless EJ improves substantially on his rookie performance, he won't be the long-term answer as a starter. Or probably even as a backup. The Bills' front office is obviously confident he will improve; which is why they didn't draft his replacement; and why they traded away next year's #1 pick. Whether this confidence is justified remains to be seen.

 

I also think it's clear NFL GMs underestimated Thad Lewis. I'm not suggesting he's the long-term answer as starter. But he'd be a solid backup; and should have been more sought-after prior to the 2013 season.

 

> it is that the people paid to make those assessments made it and I don't need to do my own assessment

 

The people paid to make these assessments used a 2nd round pick on Todd Collins, a 3rd round pick on Billy Joe Hobart, a 1st round pick on Rob Johnson, a 1st round pick on an aging Drew Bledsoe, a 1st round pick on Losman, and a 3rd round pick on Trent Edwards. Then they awarded a starter-caliber contract to Ryan Fitzpatrick.

 

I correctly predicted the failure of Hobart, Bledsoe, Losman, and Fitzpatrick. I incorrectly placed hope in Johnson, Holcomb, and Edwards. By no means am I perfect or close to perfect. But neither is the Bills' front office.

None of the people paid to assess EJ were involved in any of the items you mentioned.

 

I completely agree Thad is a solid backup.

Edited June 17, 2014 by YoloinOhio

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

 

 

Yards per attempt is a good starting point for evaluating QB play. For example: Trent Edwards has a career average of 6.5 yards per attempt; Losman 6.6 yards per attempt. While he was here, Fitzpatrick typically averaged 6.7 - 6.8 yards per attempt. On the other hand, Tom Brady has a career average of 7.5 yards per attempt; Peyton Manning 7.6 yards per attempt, Drew Brees 7.5 yards per attempt; Jim Kelly 7.4 yards per attempt, and Kurt Warner 7.9 yards per attempt. Yards per attempt isn't an exact tool. You can't say, for example, that Peyton Manning was slightly better than Tom Brady due to the small difference in yards per attempt.

 

In terms of the eyeball test, Thad Lewis looked to me like he was playing at a higher level than Manuel. The fact that Lewis also put up a higher yards per attempt than Manuel confirms my subjective assessment of the two QBs. But are there other important numbers I'm neglecting?

 

Manuel threw 11 TDs to 9 INTs; for a 1.2 TD/INT ratio. Lewis threw 4 TDs to 3 INTs for a 1.3 TD/INT ratio. Not a huge difference there. Manuel took 28 sacks on 306 attempts, for a 9.1% sack rate. Lewis took 18 sacks on 157 attempts for an 11.4% sack rate. A slight advantage goes to Manuel on that one. Manuel averaged 3.5 yards per rush; compared to 2.2 yards per rush for Thad Lewis. That's another advantage for Manuel.

 

But despite the difference in sack percentage and yards per rushing attempt; I think it's clear that during 2013 Thad Lewis outperformed Manuel by a substantial margin. 1.0 yards per attempt separates Trent Edwards from Tom Brady. 0.5 yards per attempt separates Manuel's performance in 2013 from Thad Lewis'. Manuel's edge over Lewis in sack avoidance and running the ball is worth something, but not 0.5 yards per attempt.

 

Drew Brees had a YPA of 6.2 year 2 and 5.9 year 3. Year one he played 1 game.

 

ONE EARLY CAREER SEASON IS INCONCLUSIVE. Especially ROOKIE seasons.

 

His YPA in 4 home games by the way, was 7.4. This is interesting because a rookie on the road in a no huddle with limited communication would be expected to struggle. This split gives founds a least a little optimism.

 

 

Edited June 17, 2014 by over 20 years of fanhood

[chris heff]

 

 

> If Thad was a better or even as good of an NFL QB as EJ he would be competing for the starting job here, or somewhere else.

 

Unless EJ improves substantially on his rookie performance, he won't be the long-term answer as a starter. Or probably even as a backup. The Bills' front office is obviously confident he will improve; which is why they didn't draft his replacement; and why they traded away next year's #1 pick. Whether this confidence is justified remains to be seen.

 

I also think it's clear NFL GMs underestimated Thad Lewis. I'm not suggesting he's the long-term answer as starter. But he'd be a solid backup; and should have been more sought-after prior to the 2013 season.

 

> it is that the people paid to make those assessments made it and I don't need to do my own assessment

 

The people paid to make these assessments used a 2nd round pick on Todd Collins, a 3rd round pick on Billy Joe Hobart, a 1st round pick on Rob Johnson, a 1st round pick on an aging Drew Bledsoe, a 1st round pick on Losman, and a 3rd round pick on Trent Edwards. Then they awarded a starter-caliber contract to Ryan Fitzpatrick.

 

I correctly predicted the failure of Hobart, Bledsoe, Losman, and Fitzpatrick. I incorrectly placed hope in Johnson, Holcomb, and Edwards. By no means am I perfect or close to perfect. But neither is the Bills' front office.

 

So based on your track record there is a 43% chance you are wrong about Manuel.

 

Now that I think about I believe Bledsoe should be thrown out. He did take the Patriots to a Super Bowl, I don't think he can be labeled a failure. Not that Bledsoe is either of these guys but Unitas was not successful with the Chargers nor was Namath with the Rams.

 

Therefore your track record is 50%.

Edited June 17, 2014 by chris heff