thebandit27 Posted June 2, 2014 Posted June 2, 2014 and with these numbers Buffalo is still considered one of the smallest TV markets in the league.....which is what the league looks at That cannot be anything other than good for Buffalo, which was the #11 TV market in the league last year: http://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/news/2014/01/15/jaguars-finish-no-27-in-nfl-tv-ratings.html
May Day 10 Posted June 2, 2014 Posted June 2, 2014 I see it as if the NFL wants to keep the Bills in Buffalo in good faith, and the Wilsons/The Trust are also doing the same, I will show my appreciation with my wallet moving into the future as well as generational pass-down. If they are going to try to milk every penny and find reasons our "market" doesnt "deserve" a team, then really, screw off. It really isnt anything I would want to support anyways and the NFL will be dead to me.
Buftex Posted June 2, 2014 Posted June 2, 2014 Seriously, if you were one of the mega billionaires what do you care or worry about if the stadium is empty for a number of years? What p****s me off is that right after the bills are sold and then moved the NFL will enact rules to make moving a team more difficult. ...I mean jeepers you can just feel it's going to happen. Btw, all the while as the sales process plays itself out a few silent voices descending on deaf ears will try and remind purchasers and nfl fans that there are 7-10 million people within 100 miles of Buffalo to no avail. I know, it is all about money... and it may not mean much, but I don' think the NFL wants to go through what they did when the Oilers moved from Houston to Tennessee. Olilers played a lame-duck season in Houston, and it was pretty ugly. Bad PR for the league, on top of everything else...can't imagine them being to excited about going through that for 5 years. I don't know...this whole topic is hard for me to keep up with (I don't like thinking about the end of the movie where the team leaves, though I know it is a possibitly), so forgive me if I am missing something...but I viewed the Bills going up for sale, and predictions that the sale would happen relatively quickly, to mean that the chances of the team leaving were pretty minimal.
Ronin Posted June 2, 2014 Posted June 2, 2014 (edited) Yep. I don't see it. There are way too many variables (Oakland and SD among them) for this to really work unless you have a crazy multi-billionaire who is prepared to do this at all costs. I'm not saying that that person doesn't exist, but it's just as likely that the NFL doesn't want to work with someone who is hell-bent on killing a brand regionally for six years just to court the LA market long-term. I mean, there are empty stadiums, but there is also the prospect of destroying all the regional interest that has been cultivated state-wide and north of the border. I see Toronto as really the only viable relocation prospect, and the one to get nervous about -- mostly because I could see the league buying and selling the notion that Toronto is in the same regional base as Buffalo. Another good point. If some knucklehead wants to offer $2B for the Bills, I could see the Rams or Jags owner calling him up and offering the franchise for $1.8B. You guys need to start thinking outside the box here as it were. This article mentions L.A. in passing, and everyone ignores the primary points of the piece or report. Not to mention the financial and economic circumstances of the region. This team ain't goin' to L.A. There are other options. It's also not going to sell for $2B, but it may very well sell for $1.2B, and it's almost certainly going to sell for more than the reported $800M that it's worth, and if it does, the more it sells for the more likely the team leaves. I'm sure we'll learn more in a few weeks given the rate at which this is moving now that enough time has passed since Wilson kicked, and when we do, I think that we'll find that all of those that insist that the team is staying will be enlightened to modern day economics and politics. Once again, if Buffalo had no team today, the odds of putting it here would be zero given the other options. That means that it makes more financial sense to put it elsewhere. At this point let's just hope, even if it's against hope, Whaley didn't whiff on Manuel as it would appear is the case, and that Watkins really isn't a gimmick Spiller-type of draft pick. If the team is going to leave it would be nice if it weren't run into the ground by morons that think that they know more than the collective wisdom of the league since its founding before it does. Edited June 2, 2014 by TaskersGhost
PromoTheRobot Posted June 2, 2014 Posted June 2, 2014 I know, it is all about money... and it may not mean much, but I don' think the NFL wants to go through what they did when the Oilers moved from Houston to Tennessee. Olilers played a lame-duck season in Houston, and it was pretty ugly. Bad PR for the league, on top of everything else...can't imagine them being to excited about going through that for 5 years. I don't know...this whole topic is hard for me to keep up with (I don't like thinking about the end of the movie where the team leaves, though I know it is a possibitly), so forgive me if I am missing something...but I viewed the Bills going up for sale, and predictions that the sale would happen relatively quickly, to mean that the chances of the team leaving were pretty minimal. Probably thinking that could be a stick to break the lease.
Ronin Posted June 2, 2014 Posted June 2, 2014 I know, it is all about money... and it may not mean much, but I don' think the NFL wants to go through what they did when the Oilers moved from Houston to Tennessee. Olilers played a lame-duck season in Houston, and it was pretty ugly. Bad PR for the league, on top of everything else...can't imagine them being to excited about going through that for 5 years. I think that applies more to the way that the NFL was 20+ years ago and not so much today. The spending for stadiums, with the accompanied corruption at all levels, has gotten well out of hand. Today it's all about the billionaires and the NFL's owners, these guys look longer term. Probably thinking that could be a stick to break the lease. What do you mean? You're the only other person besides myself that seems to think that this notion that the team is guaranteed to be here 'til 2020 is hardly certain if I read that correctly.
RuntheDamnBall Posted June 2, 2014 Posted June 2, 2014 You guys need to start thinking outside the box here as it were. This article mentions L.A. in passing, and everyone ignores the primary points of the piece or report. Not to mention the financial and economic circumstances of the region. This team ain't goin' to L.A. There are other options. It's also not going to sell for $2B, but it may very well sell for $1.2B, and it's almost certainly going to sell for more than the reported $800M that it's worth, and if it does, the more it sells for the more likely the team leaves. I'm sure we'll learn more in a few weeks given the rate at which this is moving now that enough time has passed since Wilson kicked, and when we do, I think that we'll find that all of those that insist that the team is staying will be enlightened to modern day economics and politics. Once again, if Buffalo had no team today, the odds of putting it here would be zero given the other options. That means that it makes more financial sense to put it elsewhere. Actually, it only means that it makes more financial sense in this hypothetical, which doesn't factor in the many aforementioned costs associated with a relocation. We've also already passed around the idea that a prospective owner isn't really buying this thing to make great financial sense. It's a vanity play, to some extent. But I'm also sure they aren't trying to lose their ass on it. It would take many years in the imagined new location to emerge from the red.
Pondslider Posted June 2, 2014 Posted June 2, 2014 That cannot be anything other than good for Buffalo, which was the #11 TV market in the league last year: http://www.bizjourna...tv-ratings.html I'm far from a ratings expert, so someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that really comparing apples to oranges? Yes the Bills have high TV ratings for the area because so many people in Buffalo watch the team on Sundays, but even if the team had slightly lower ratings in a bigger area they'd still (in theory) be reaching more people than they are in Buffalo. And reaching more people means more money for advertising etc.
thebandit27 Posted June 2, 2014 Posted June 2, 2014 What do you mean? You're the only other person besides myself that seems to think that this notion that the team is guaranteed to be here 'til 2020 is hardly certain if I read that correctly. Many of us are still waiting for you to supply any fact-based rationale for why you believe this...
Wayne Cubed Posted June 2, 2014 Posted June 2, 2014 and with these numbers Buffalo is still considered one of the smallest TV markets in the league.....which is what the league looks at Actually Toronto isn't considered part of the Buffalo market. If it was, that would put it 4th among the league.
Ronin Posted June 2, 2014 Posted June 2, 2014 I see it as if the NFL wants to keep the Bills in Buffalo in good faith, and the Wilsons/The Trust are also doing the same, I will show my appreciation with my wallet moving into the future as well as generational pass-down. If they are going to try to milk every penny and find reasons our "market" doesnt "deserve" a team, then really, screw off. It really isnt anything I would want to support anyways and the NFL will be dead to me. Everyone's too emotional in their positions on this. No one, besides us and local and regional politicians with other interests, cares about our "market." Every market is what it is, nothing more, nothing less. The Bills had the third least operating income in 2012, the last year of reported data. That means that there's greater potential elsewhere.
zonabb Posted June 2, 2014 Posted June 2, 2014 If I understand things correctly though, the blackout rule would mean that unless the new top 32 market location actually sold out the games, there would be no local product on TV in those markets anyway(at least for home games). Furthermore, revenue sharing means that the NFL owners would make less money unless the number of seats sold(& merchandise) was more than the previous location. The owner of the moved team would likely be very happy regardless as the mega dollar luxury boxes(& stadium advertising) don't come under the revenue sharing rules and they can keep all of those massive profits for themselves. My point here being that there are many financial reasons for an NFL owner to want to move to a big market area but that doesn't necessarily mean that the NFL(the other 31 owners) will make more money out of a team moving locations. If there is no significant new revenue for the NFL I doubt they would give the okay for a team to move. The key point is market size as a proxy for potential. People are more interested to things locally so having a team in LA with a metro population of 17M+ represents many more new potential fans, corporate sponsors, ad sale prices no TV, etc. The opposite of true here, our local market has a fixed size with people who are fans or aren't, making it have very limited potential. I've heard people argue that "well we have a higher percentage of fans in the population". Maybe. but 50% of 2.5M (the market size when considering the 75 mile market buffer) is 1.25 million. Only 10% of the LA market means 1.7M and that is more money, more ads, more corporate sponsorships.... The bottomline is, the NFL isn't stupid, they know that large markets matter. The question is how much do they matter is they're talking about a global product now? If they, as many owners seem to speak about, are inclined to get into the largest markets absent a single utterance of expansion, the small market teams, unfortunately, are doomed without a local benefactor. And even with a local benefactor, if the NFL is willing to support the relocation of historic franchises like Buffalo, then no out of town interest is going to be outbid by a local person looking to lose money.
thebandit27 Posted June 2, 2014 Posted June 2, 2014 I'm far from a ratings expert, so someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that really comparing apples to oranges? Yes the Bills have high TV ratings for the area because so many people in Buffalo watch the team on Sundays, but even if the team had slightly lower ratings in a bigger area they'd still (in theory) be reaching more people than they are in Buffalo. And reaching more people means more money for advertising etc. You're reading it correctly...actually the article mentions that specifically (comparing the Jets/Giants market to Pittsburgh/New Orleans). Point being that the TV market here is strong. I'll see if I can find the revenue statistics to show how the actual TV dollars compare...
The Wiz Posted June 2, 2014 Posted June 2, 2014 Actually Toronto isn't considered part of the Buffalo market. If it was, that would put it 4th among the league. And if it was, I believe the team could move there without a relocation fee.
Wayne Cubed Posted June 2, 2014 Posted June 2, 2014 I'm far from a ratings expert, so someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that really comparing apples to oranges? Yes the Bills have high TV ratings for the area because so many people in Buffalo watch the team on Sundays, but even if the team had slightly lower ratings in a bigger area they'd still (in theory) be reaching more people than they are in Buffalo. And reaching more people means more money for advertising etc. I posted this is another thread: If we go by the numbers listed in TaskersGhost and it's just local TV market, the higher percentage only helps. If I do the percentages against what is considered local(Toronoto is not unfortunatley) the Bills had more eyes watching in WNY than Arizona, Tampa Bay, Miami, Jacksonville and St. Louis all of which have much higher viewing populations. Not to mention they beat everyone who was below, except New Orleans. All of this on the end of a 6-10 record and not including a hugh metro area like Toronto. It moves them much higher on the list. The high percentage only helps the NFL. They sell there entire percentage not just individual cities.
thebandit27 Posted June 2, 2014 Posted June 2, 2014 You're reading it correctly...actually the article mentions that specifically (comparing the Jets/Giants market to Pittsburgh/New Orleans). Point being that the TV market here is strong. I'll see if I can find the revenue statistics to show how the actual TV dollars compare... Here's what I found: http://www.forbes.com/nfl-valuations/list/#page:1_sort:5_direction:desc_search: On a pure dollar-for-dollar basis, the Bills rank 22nd in revenue in the NFL, ahead of much larger markets like SF, SD, Atlanta, KC, and St. Louis http://www.forbes.com/pictures/emdm45jfem/1-green-bay-packers/ In terms of revenue dollars-per-fan, taken according to the metropolitan area populace, the Bills rank 3rd in the NFL: http://www.forbes.com/pictures/emdm45jfem/the-nfls-most-valuable-fans/ I don't know if that helps put things into a better format for comparison, but that's what I found in a really quick search.
Pondslider Posted June 2, 2014 Posted June 2, 2014 I posted this is another thread: The high percentage only helps the NFL. They sell there entire percentage not just individual cities. Interesting thanks.
Ronin Posted June 2, 2014 Posted June 2, 2014 (edited) Many of us are still waiting for you to supply any fact-based rationale for why you believe this... I'll answer with a question, and a couple of related questions. Have you ever heard of a buyout of a lease? Have you ever heard of politicians being corrupt after the fact and having taken money or bribes of some sort for some action taken? Do you really believe that those involved in the sale of the team have you and the rest of us fans anywhere near their top priority in determining what happens to this team and who it is sold to? We can start with Mary Wilson and those on the trust. Do you really think that their first priority is not money? If you can't connect those dots, I simply don't know what to say. Leases are bought out all the time. I've laid out this scenario several times, but you and others talk as if any would-be new owner would have no leverage at all, and I'm talking behind closed doors. They would have leverage. You can ignore that, which I've expressed numerous times already, and apparently you do ignore it. But that's to your own detriment then. I've said this too, just like they said shortly after Wilson kicked that the team wouldn't be sold for years, and everyone here and other Bills forums believed that, I believe that I was the only one saying "nonsense," and that the team would be sold sooner than that. I'm sure you disagreed then too, but it happened. Now they're saying presumably by October. Not saying that will definitely happen, but I did say that it wouldn't take the years that they said. Same thing with this notion on the lease. There are a hundred ways to break a lease. Even 2020 requires a buyout. Let me throw this out, suppose an owner, possibly supported by other league owners, says we'll double (or whatever) the 2020 buyout, and quietly lines the pockets of the politicians making the decision, if you let us out now (or sooner) you don't think that this would be a factor? If you don't then you'd have to be naive in a world whereby money trumps integrity and ethics on a daily basis now at that level. And if it was, I believe the team could move there without a relocation fee. Where did you hear/read that? Have you got a link? If that's the case, I'd put odds on that the team is going to Toronto. Edited June 2, 2014 by TaskersGhost
zonabb Posted June 2, 2014 Posted June 2, 2014 That cannot be anything other than good for Buffalo, which was the #11 TV market in the league last year: http://www.bizjourna...tv-ratings.html And dropping.... which you didn't mention... probably as a result of an aging population. As I just wrote in another thread.... these are meaningless rankings because they measure the percentage of viewers. So Buffalo as a high percentage, lets arbitrarily say 50% of the 2.5M or 1.25M. That number is obviously used as a proxy for fans but the NFL sees it as a proxy for income. What if in LA, which every says isn't an NFL market, they weekly pulled on 15% of the population. That's 15% of 17M people, or 2.55M people, or equivalent to everyone on the Bills market watching! Yeah this doesn't include the southern Ontario market and the numbers would be higher but the point is, simple math folks. From a business standpoint, you can't argue that big cities mean big money and big profits.
Ronin Posted June 2, 2014 Posted June 2, 2014 Here's what I found: http://www.forbes.co...on:desc_search: On a pure dollar-for-dollar basis, the Bills rank 22nd in revenue in the NFL, ahead of much larger markets like SF, SD, Atlanta, KC, and St. Louis http://www.forbes.co...en-bay-packers/ In terms of revenue dollars-per-fan, taken according to the metropolitan area populace, the Bills rank 3rd in the NFL: http://www.forbes.co...-valuable-fans/ I don't know if that helps put things into a better format for comparison, but that's what I found in a really quick search. Where's the profit chart? For years we've heard about how we cannot compete for coaches because the team doesn't make enough money to pay the better coaches. Same implicitly goes for GMs and subsequently players too. Hence their decision to part ways with Stevie. The implication here is that if the team stays it will be more of the same regarding its competitiveness. That sounds like the best case here. I may be in an extreme minority on this one, but if the team stays and all we're going to get is the same garbage that's made the Bills the most futile team historically outside of the Polian era, then I don't really care either way. I don't buy garbage products from other companies, I don't see why anyone would buy a garbage product simply because they live in a geographical area or are from that area. If a business wants my dollar its going to have to provide something I want. I don't want to be a fan that's a laughing stock for the rest of the world. I don't to get all excited hoping that my team can muster a half a dozen competitive games every Sunday hoping to make the playoffs or perhaps merely log a winning record by a fluke. It doesn't have to be every season, but at some point, unless the team starts winning, it really doesn't matter whether or not it moves. I'm also not going to "pre-pay" (via PSLs or anything else) for the hopes that somewhere down the road the team will eventually be good when there's no evidence that it's even headed in that direction. Again, I'm sure I'm in a minority there. At least this fool and his money aren't soon parted. The key point is market size as a proxy for potential. People are more interested to things locally so having a team in LA with a metro population of 17M+ represents many more new potential fans, corporate sponsors, ad sale prices no TV, etc. The opposite of true here, our local market has a fixed size with people who are fans or aren't, making it have very limited potential. I've heard people argue that "well we have a higher percentage of fans in the population". Maybe. but 50% of 2.5M (the market size when considering the 75 mile market buffer) is 1.25 million. Only 10% of the LA market means 1.7M and that is more money, more ads, more corporate sponsorships.... The bottomline is, the NFL isn't stupid, they know that large markets matter. The question is how much do they matter is they're talking about a global product now? If they, as many owners seem to speak about, are inclined to get into the largest markets absent a single utterance of expansion, the small market teams, unfortunately, are doomed without a local benefactor. And even with a local benefactor, if the NFL is willing to support the relocation of historic franchises like Buffalo, then no out of town interest is going to be outbid by a local person looking to lose money. One of the more intelligent posts I've read. You know, things were just too happy around here lately. It's nice to have some "bad news" to energize folks. Nothing like a good old fashioned TBD freak out. lmao
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