Sammy Watkins Trade - Draft Pick Value

[1B4IDie]

Sorry for the new thread but I searched the forum and could not find the Draft Pick Trade Value breakdown. It may have been folded into another thread. So I did a breakdown myself.

 

I think this thread should stay separate for posterity but I'll leave this up to the Mods. I have my spreadsheet so I can find it in the future if I need it.

 

It was posted somewhere that the Bills break even on the trade if they pick in the 20s. I took that post at face value. It is not true.

 

Actually the Bills cannot break even in the Draft Pick Value chart no matter where they pick.

 

I used the charts on these 3 links:

 

http://profootballta...ft-trade-chart/

http://www.draftcoun...Value-Chart.php

http://sports.espn.g...tory?id=2410670

 

The Bills Received the 2014 #4 pick worth 1,800 points

 

The Browns Received the 2014 #9 pick worth 1350

The Browns Received the 2015 1st round pick pick worth 3000-590 points

The Browns Received the 2015 4th round pick worth 112-44 points

 

Meaning if the Bills draft #32 in 2015 the Browns will receive 1,984 points

 

Obviously if the Bills earn the #32 pick the trade was worth it.

 

To the Poster that posted a break even point how did they get that break even point? Am I missing something in the point breakdown?

 

Also Does anyone know how to post a spreadsheet it always comes in funky like this:

Cleveland Browns Buffalo Bills 2015 Pick Delta
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 3000 2015 4th 112 Total 4,462 2014 #4 1800 1 -2,662
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 2600 2015 4th 108 Total 4,058 2014 #4 1800 2 -2,258
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 2200 2015 4th 104 Total 3,654 2014 #4 1800 3 -1,854
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 1800 2015 4th 100 Total 3,250 2014 #4 1800 4 -1,450
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 1700 2015 4th 96 Total 3,146 2014 #4 1800 5 -1,346
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 1600 2015 4th 92 Total 3,042 2014 #4 1800 6 -1,242
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 1500 2015 4th 88 Total 2,938 2014 #4 1800 7 -1,138
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 1400 2015 4th 86 Total 2,836 2014 #4 1800 8 -1,036
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 1350 2015 4th 84 Total 2,784 2014 #4 1800 9 -984
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 1300 2015 4th 82 Total 2,732 2014 #4 1800 10 -932
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 1250 2015 4th 80 Total 2,680 2014 #4 1800 11 -880
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 1200 2015 4th 78 Total 2,628 2014 #4 1800 12 -828
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 1150 2015 4th 76 Total 2,576 2014 #4 1800 13 -776
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 1100 2015 4th 74 Total 2,524 2014 #4 1800 14 -724
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 1050 2015 4th 72 Total 2,472 2014 #4 1800 15 -672
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 1000 2015 4th 70 Total 2,420 2014 #4 1800 16 -620
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 950 2015 4th 68 Total 2,368 2014 #4 1800 17 -568
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 900 2015 4th 66 Total 2,316 2014 #4 1800 18 -516
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 875 2015 4th 64 Total 2,289 2014 #4 1800 19 -489
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 850 2015 4th 62 Total 2,262 2014 #4 1800 20 -462
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 800 2015 4th 60 Total 2,210 2014 #4 1800 21 -410
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 780 2015 4th 58 Total 2,188 2014 #4 1800 22 -388
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 760 2015 4th 56 Total 2,166 2014 #4 1800 23 -366
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 740 2015 4th 54 Total 2,144 2014 #4 1800 24 -344
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 720 2015 4th 52 Total 2,122 2014 #4 1800 25 -322
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 700 2015 4th 50 Total 2,100 2014 #4 1800 26 -300
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 680 2015 4th 49 Total 2,079 2014 #4 1800 27 -279
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 660 2015 4th 48 Total 2,058 2014 #4 1800 28 -258
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 640 2015 4th 47 Total 2,037 2014 #4 1800 29 -237
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 620 2015 4th 46 Total 2,016 2014 #4 1800 30 -216
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 600 2015 4th 45 Total 1,995 2014 #4 1800 31 -195
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 590 2015 4th 44 Total 1,984 2014 #4 1800 32 -184

Edited May 20, 2014 by Why So Serious?

[Malazan]

People discussed the points quite a bit in the Watkins thread.

[Jauronimo]

For posterity?

[1B4IDie]

For posterity?

This trade will be talked about on TBD for years, maybe even generations.

[qblax16]

Also consider that the Bills had Sammy as #1 on there board, and considered going to #1 to get him. For argument purposes you could say the bills valued him at 3,000 points. Looks like that would make it worth it to them if the pick 7th or later next year.

 

Again, just throwing that out there, not really taking a side on this one until I see some action! My 3 Clemson Alum Co-Workers seem to think it's worth it ha!

[Cash]

I believe the "break even" breakdown requires the old chestnut of draft trade accounting, namely discounts on future picks. Basically, for every year in the future a pick is, you knock a round off its value in the Jimmy Johnson Trade Chart. This is why everyone in the Watkins thread was screaming that we only gave up a 2nd round pick, even though we actually gave up a first round pick. If we had traded our first-rounder in 2016, that would be "discounted" to the value of a 3rd-round pick in 2014. You sometimes see teams trade next year's first-rounder for a pick during the second round (invariably because a player with a "first round grade" was available -- as though there won't be any players with first round grades in the first round next year?), and it's considered a fair swap by the JJ chart.

 

Of course, some people (including me) think that discounting future picks is nonsensical, especially from a fan's perspective. It's possible that a coach or GM can really put a lower value on a future pick that he may not be around to execute, but barring extreme age or terminal illness, we fans can be pretty sure that we'll still be fans of the team by the time the next draft rolls around. So why should we consider next year's first only as valuable as this year's second? If another team offered the Bills a future first for their current second, wouldn't you want them to take it every single year?

 

Relevant to this discussion: http://grantland.com/features/nfl-draft-michael-sam-gay-trades/

 

Scroll down to "The Worst Trades of the 2014 NFL Draft" -- we rated as the #2 biggest overpay if we give up the 12th pick next year. On the plus side, "if the Bills make the playoffs, it's only a marginally aggressive move," which I think we'd all be okay with.

[mrags]

When you go up that high in the draft for a guy that's supposed to be a generational talent ... All draft pick value charts get thrown out the window.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

When you trade draft picks a year out they are figured to be worth one round lower. So to "balance the equation" you need to take the value of the Bills 9th pick in the first round plus the value of the ninth pick in the 2nd and the 5th round, since it's next years first and fourth Add them up, then compare to the value of the 4th overall in the first round, that shoud roughly balance it.

 

Obvliosly neither team know where the Bill's we be picking next year, but since there are 32 total picks and they chose 9th this year, the odds are in favor of those being alower pick next year, just because more room to improve vs regress.

 

For two reasons you take one round lower in value, the unknowns of where the pick will be, and because it's a year out devalues the picks

[JESSEFEFFER]

Picks in future drafts are generally discounted. Maybe its better to say that picks in a current draft have more value. Whaley obviously believes it as he wanted to retain their 2014 picks and managed to keep them out of the trade.

[JESSEFEFFER]

Also, consider this. With the 41st pick the Bills traded down to 44 and got the extra 5th. These became Kouwandjio and Richardson. These two players give them a chance to have a better starting offensive line this year along with better depth. In this regard having the 4th best OT prospect this year is better that the 1st or 2nd OT next year. The "bird in the hand > two in the bush" philosophy.

 

I prefer this one: The value of a nail now versus a box of them later:

 

 

 

 

For want of a nail the shoe was lost,

for want of a shoe the horse was lost,

for want of a horse the knight was lost,

for want of a knight the battle was lost,

for want of a battle the kingdom was lost.

So a kingdom was lost—all for want of a nail.

 

 

-JLA: The Nail

[Dragonborn10]

Actually it is a time value of money calculation. If you knew thew interest rate(discount rate) that draft picks earned from year to year you could more accurately determine the true present value of next years first and fourth round picks.

 

So since the OP valued the 2015 1st round pick the same as a 2014 pick (1350 points for a #9 in both years) his/her analysis is wrong.

 

Now you can close the thread.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

If he's an elite star that gets the team over the hump it's great value, if he busts it was reckless.

 

What ever analysis might say Andrew luck is worth I doubt the colts would trade him.

 

Picks vs other picks are certainly a currency. Once picks are traded again, this time for a specific player, the picks value is now forever married to that player and the actual value he generates over his career determines whether the selection was appropriately valued or not.

 

By example, i suspect the bills could have traded kiko plus the bills #9 to Cleveland for that #4 pick.

 

Since kiko was a second round pick I bet on paper with your chart it would be a great deal for buffalo. So tell me would you make that trade?

 

[yungmack]

This is all Wall Street-style derivatives nonsense. The only value of any pick is in the results: if the Bills become one of the top teams in the league, then Watkins and all the other picks were a bargain; if they continue to struggle to reach 500, then the picks were all over-valued. Had the Bills stayed at 9 and had Watkins still been there and they picked him and he was a bust, then what was the "value?" I'd take about a decade of picking "lower value" players from 28 to 32 in the draft over wringing my hands about moving up or down near the top of the draft. The value of each pick is what each team decides it is worth to them. Period.

[Jauronimo]

When its all said and done, I think this whole Watkins trade just might go down as the most important thing to ever happen, ever.

Edited May 20, 2014 by Jauronimo

[Dragonborn10]

This is all Wall Street-style derivatives nonsense. The only value of any pick is in the results: if the Bills become one of the top teams in the league, then Watkins and all the other picks were a bargain; if they continue to struggle to reach 500, then the picks were all over-valued. Had the Bills stayed at 9 and had Watkins still been there and they picked him and he was a bust, then what was the "value?" I'd take about a decade of picking "lower value" players from 28 to 32 in the draft over wringing my hands about moving up or down near the top of the draft. The value of each pick is what each team decides it is worth to them. Period.

It is not non-sense. It is classic futures and commodities trading. You have to know the value of anything you trade. The OP has assigned the wrong value to next years picks thus the analysis of an unequal trade is wrong.

[Jauronimo]

This is all Wall Street-style derivatives nonsense. The only value of any pick is in the results: if the Bills become one of the top teams in the league, then Watkins and all the other picks were a bargain; if they continue to struggle to reach 500, then the picks were all over-valued. Had the Bills stayed at 9 and had Watkins still been there and they picked him and he was a bust, then what was the "value?" I'd take about a decade of picking "lower value" players from 28 to 32 in the draft over wringing my hands about moving up or down near the top of the draft. The value of each pick is what each team decides it is worth to them. Period.

It is not non-sense. It is classic futures and commodities trading. You have to know the value of anything you trade. The OP has assigned the wrong value to next years picks thus the analysis of an unequal trade is wrong.

The only articles I've found which discuss the methodology employed in developing either of the predominant draft trade value charts have nothing to do derivatives, commodities or futures trading. Do either of you have link which delves into how derivative valuation concepts are used to value draft picks?

[The Wiz]

When its all said and done, I think this whole Watkins trade just might go down as the most important thing to ever happen, ever.

obviously.

[K-9]

Picks in future drafts are generally discounted. Maybe its better to say that picks in a current draft have more value. Whaley obviously believes it as he wanted to retain their 2014 picks and managed to keep them out of the trade.

 

The best part about this trade, other than getting Watkins, is that we retained our 2nd rounder this year. In the deepest draft in a dozen years, that's saying something. Next year's draft will not be as deep.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[1B4IDie]

Actually it is a time value of money calculation. If you knew thew interest rate(discount rate) that draft picks earned from year to year you could more accurately determine the true present value of next years first and fourth round picks.

 

So since the OP valued the 2015 1st round pick the same as a 2014 pick (1350 points for a #9 in both years) his/her analysis is wrong.

 

Now you can close the thread.

 

I've never heard of discounting by a round. I do remember someone saying that you discount future picks by 50%.

 

Boom thats how you get the break even point at the 20s:

 

Traditional Chart 50% discount
Cleveland Browns Buffalo Bills 2015 Pick Delta
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 1500 2015 4th 56 Total 2,906 2014 #4 1800 1 -1,106
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 1300 2015 4th 54 Total 2,704 2014 #4 1800 2 -904
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 1100 2015 4th 52 Total 2,502 2014 #4 1800 3 -702
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 900 2015 4th 50 Total 2,300 2014 #4 1800 4 -500
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 850 2015 4th 48 Total 2,248 2014 #4 1800 5 -448
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 800 2015 4th 46 Total 2,196 2014 #4 1800 6 -396
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 750 2015 4th 44 Total 2,144 2014 #4 1800 7 -344
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 700 2015 4th 43 Total 2,093 2014 #4 1800 8 -293
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 675 2015 4th 42 Total 2,067 2014 #4 1800 9 -267
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 650 2015 4th 41 Total 2,041 2014 #4 1800 10 -241
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 625 2015 4th 40 Total 2,015 2014 #4 1800 11 -215
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 600 2015 4th 39 Total 1,989 2014 #4 1800 12 -189
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 575 2015 4th 38 Total 1,963 2014 #4 1800 13 -163
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 550 2015 4th 37 Total 1,937 2014 #4 1800 14 -137
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 525 2015 4th 36 Total 1,911 2014 #4 1800 15 -111
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 500 2015 4th 35 Total 1,885 2014 #4 1800 16 -85
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 475 2015 4th 34 Total 1,859 2014 #4 1800 17 -59
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 450 2015 4th 33 Total 1,833 2014 #4 1800 18 -33
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 437.5 2015 4th 32 Total 1,820 2014 #4 1800 19 -20
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 425 2015 4th 31 Total 1,806 2014 #4 1800 20 -6
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 400 2015 4th 30 Total 1,780 2014 #4 1800 21 20
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 390 2015 4th 29 Total 1,769 2014 #4 1800 22 31
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 380 2015 4th 28 Total 1,758 2014 #4 1800 23 42
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 370 2015 4th 27 Total 1,747 2014 #4 1800 24 53
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 360 2015 4th 26 Total 1,736 2014 #4 1800 25 64
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 350 2015 4th 25 Total 1,725 2014 #4 1800 26 75
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 340 2015 4th 24.5 Total 1,715 2014 #4 1800 27 86
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 330 2015 4th 24 Total 1,704 2014 #4 1800 28 96
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 320 2015 4th 23.5 Total 1,694 2014 #4 1800 29 107
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 310 2015 4th 23 Total 1,683 2014 #4 1800 30 117
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 300 2015 4th 22.5 Total 1,673 2014 #4 1800 31 128
2014 #9 1350 2015 1st 295 2015 4th 22 Total 1,667 2014 #4 1800 32 133

 

Which begs the question, Why would you discount a future pick by a round?

Edited May 20, 2014 by Why So Serious?

[BarleyNY]

I think the Bills paid dearly for Watkins, but I think that the most accurate way to value this trade from the Bills' standpoint is to look at the player they got for what they paid, not the pick they got. You trade back for picks and, often, one of a group of players. You trade up for a specific player. The success of this trade on the Bills' side will be whether or not Watkins was worth two firsts and a forth. The Browns got the 9th pick which they used, along with a fifth, to get the player they wanted - Gilbert. They also got Buffalo's first and fourth next year. The first-round pick I'm sure has some sort of average value, but there is the chance that it could be a high one worth a lot. If it is it is likely because EJ isn't panning out or because he got injured again. And that's the big risk for the Bills.