1billsfan Posted May 20, 2014 Posted May 20, 2014 I'm not going to predict the number of wins, but I'll pick the range of 9-12. I would think that with the talent on this team, the Bills believe they have a real shot to win the division this year. When was the last time this team honestly believed that? It's been over a decade at least. I just don't want them talking to reporters about how good they think they are, they should just give cookie cutter boring answers to all the questions leading up to the season. Then unload on the Bears.
jumbalaya Posted May 20, 2014 Posted May 20, 2014 take the over this year. even a blind squirrel finds an acorn now and then.
26CornerBlitz Posted May 21, 2014 Posted May 21, 2014 Oddsmaker: Raiders, Jaguars underdogs in each of first 15 games For now, here’s a listing of how often the other 30 teams are favored this season. Consider it an early measurement of public perception. Opponents are listed in order of how they appear on the club’s schedule: Buffalo Bills (6): Miami (-1), San Diego (-1), Minnesota (-2.5), N.Y. Jets (-2.5), Cleveland (-2.5), at Oakland (-1).
Billsguy Posted May 22, 2014 Posted May 22, 2014 The. Bills coming in at 6.5...I'll put a hundy on the over... http://ftw.usatoday....rolina-panthers The title of the thread, "Vegas has released their win total projections" is not valid since the Nevada sportsbooks don't project wins and losses for NFL teams. This is one of the most misunderstood aspects of setting the betting line. ESPN is also famous for spreading this misinformation. The betting line is set by the sportsbooks to to get equal betting action on both sides of the number. In the Bills case, they have determined that 50% of the betting public will pick the Bills to win more than 6.5 games and that the other 50% of the betting public will pick the Bills to win less than 6.5 games. It is purely a number to balance their betting books. The house takes 10% of all bets so they want the action to be equal on both sides so that they reduce their risk to zero. They will make a guaranteed 10% of all the action if the betting is equal. They can get really hurt if the betting is lopsided to one side or the other. In summary, the betting line is not a prediction. For example, it is wrong to hear people say the Patriots are 8.5 pts better than the Dolphins because the line is NE -8.5. This is not what the odds makers are saying at all. They are trying to even out the betting on both sides... period!
Kipers Hair Posted May 22, 2014 Author Posted May 22, 2014 The title of the thread, "Vegas has released their win total projections" is not valid since the Nevada sportsbooks don't project wins and losses for NFL teams. This is one of the most misunderstood aspects of setting the betting line. ESPN is also famous for spreading this misinformation. The betting line is set by the sportsbooks to to get equal betting action on both sides of the number. In the Bills case, they have determined that 50% of the betting public will pick the Bills to win more than 6.5 games and that the other 50% of the betting public will pick the Bills to win less than 6.5 games. It is purely a number to balance their betting books. The house takes 10% of all bets so they want the action to be equal on both sides so that they reduce their risk to zero. They will make a guaranteed 10% of all the action if the betting is equal. They can get really hurt if the betting is lopsided to one side or the other. In summary, the betting line is not a prediction. For example, it is wrong to hear people say the Patriots are 8.5 pts better than the Dolphins because the line is NE -8.5. This is not what the odds makers are saying at all. They are trying to even out the betting on both sides... period! - Not disagreeing ss it makes sense from a house betting perspective, but isn't that what the bar is - the mid point where half of the people think it's going to be over and the other half under? If the bar is too low and everybody bets the over and the house loses their shirt, the 10 percent vig means squat. The bar is set where they (this case the LV Hilton) think the win total will be around...for the Bills, 6 or 7 wins. What's the misconception?
fansince88 Posted May 22, 2014 Posted May 22, 2014 On a lighter note, we are 80/1 to win the Super Bowl, a slight improvement over last year. Mary, What are the chances that a girl like me and a guy like you would ever get together,1 in ten?....more like 1 in a Million Loyd!Soooo you are saying there is a chance!!!
eball Posted May 22, 2014 Posted May 22, 2014 This is not exactly right. For these over under win totals, the 6.5 will NEVER move. What will move is the juice one pays to place the bet. As EBall pointed out, one needs to bet $130 right now on the over to win $100.If sentiment shifts over the next 3 months that makes the bet more attractive, that $130 might move to $150 or $160. And, Vegas overall does not care near as much about a 50/50 line as every one thinks. These guys are sharps that run the casinos, and they know the public for the most part will lose betting football. They make lines where they hope they don't cant hammered by the sharps betting the right side on Monday before the rest of dolts bet the wrong side on Saturday and Sunday. Not unusual for a book to have 75% of the money on one side, and they they are comfortable with that as long as the money comes from slubs like us, not the guys who make a living betting. Only thing the books really hate is favorites winning more than 50% of the NFL games, as the majority of Saturday Sunday bettors play the favorites.If favorites are wining at a 60% clip, Vegas is getting murdered. I might save this for re-posting in the next betting thread that comes up. Folks should take note.
BuffaloBillsMagic1 Posted May 22, 2014 Posted May 22, 2014 This is not exactly right. For these over under win totals, the 6.5 will NEVER move. What will move is the juice one pays to place the bet. As EBall pointed out, one needs to bet $130 right now on the over to win $100.If sentiment shifts over the next 3 months that makes the bet more attractive, that $130 might move to $150 or $160. And, Vegas overall does not care near as much about a 50/50 line as every one thinks. These guys are sharps that run the casinos, and they know the public for the most part will lose betting football. They make lines where they hope they don't cant hammered by the sharps betting the right side on Monday before the rest of dolts bet the wrong side on Saturday and Sunday. Not unusual for a book to have 75% of the money on one side, and they they are comfortable with that as long as the money comes from slubs like us, not the guys who make a living betting. Only thing the books really hate is favorites winning more than 50% of the NFL games, as the majority of Saturday Sunday bettors play the favorites.If favorites are wining at a 60% clip, Vegas is getting murdered. I am actually going to Vegas tonight for first time. Where do I go to place this bet on the over?????I think it is a sure thing.
plenzmd1 Posted May 22, 2014 Posted May 22, 2014 Las Vegas hilton sets the line I believe, but you should be able to place the bet at any sports book. As EBAll mentioned , you will have to hand over &130 to place a $100 bet. If you win your ticket is then worth $230.
Big Turk Posted May 22, 2014 Posted May 22, 2014 I don't put much stock in Vegas lines. They aren't really projections of what they think will happen, but merely the points that they expect 50 percent of the public will bet on the over and 50 on the under. There's a reason lines move as people bet on one outcome significantly more than the other. Yup, lines are to get people betting
KD in CA Posted May 22, 2014 Posted May 22, 2014 take the over this year. even a blind squirrel finds an acorn now and then. Blind squirrel must also be deaf and dumb by now if he's bet the over on the Bills for the last 15 years.
BarleyNY Posted May 22, 2014 Posted May 22, 2014 This season comes down to EJ Manuel IMO. The defense is geared toward pass rush and defending a team that throws a lot. If the offense can help put teams in position to have to throw (Bills ahead late in games, Bills ahead by a wide margin at any point or just in a shoot out) then the defense can pin its ears back and look out. This defense will close games out. That's what Indy did with Manning. Their defense was built for shoot outs. But if EJ doesn't come through, then opposing teams will run on the Bills. They were susceptible to the run last season and I don't see any reason to expect otherwise this season. Other teams will be able to chew the clock in tight games and close out games when they are ahead late. EJ and the Bills passing attack have their work cut out for them and I think the season goes how they go.
White Linen Posted May 22, 2014 Posted May 22, 2014 who are you and what have you done with Kellyto83TD??? Isn't that the truth? He went from - I hate everything this team does and has ever done - to - we're a contender for the division.
Hazed and Amuzed Posted May 23, 2014 Posted May 23, 2014 This season comes down to EJ Manuel IMO. The defense is geared toward pass rush and defending a team that throws a lot. If the offense can help put teams in position to have to throw (Bills ahead late in games, Bills ahead by a wide margin at any point or just in a shoot out) then the defense can pin its ears back and look out. This defense will close games out. That's what Indy did with Manning. Their defense was built for shoot outs. But if EJ doesn't come through, then opposing teams will run on the Bills. They were susceptible to the run last season and I don't see any reason to expect otherwise this season. Other teams will be able to chew the clock in tight games and close out games when they are ahead late. EJ and the Bills passing attack have their work cut out for them and I think the season goes how they go. I don't know bro, I think the Bills have done a couple of things to get better at stopping the run. I think the Schwartz hire, the Spikes and Rivers signing and Preston Brown being drafted we're all intended to make this run D better. Will it work? I have no clue. Detroit was 6th against the run last year and I'll take out front 7 over theirs anytime. Branch Williams Dareus Williams Alonso Spikes Rivers/Lawson/Hughes Should be able to make an improvement over last year
Alphadawg7 Posted May 23, 2014 Posted May 23, 2014 The. Bills coming in at 6.5...I'll put a hundy on the over... http://ftw.usatoday....rolina-panthers IMO this is a slam dunk bet...take the over. I am going to put some money on this, thanks for the heads up. The only way I see us winning 6 games or less is if we are ravaged by injuries again. This team was 5 plays away from winning 10 games despite 5 different QB's (4 of which were 3rd stringers or worse).
Passepartout Posted May 23, 2014 Posted May 23, 2014 Well hopefully that EJ can really do well in his sophomore year. As it will be up to him. And the OL to protect him!
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