Kipers Hair Posted May 20, 2014 Posted May 20, 2014 The. Bills coming in at 6.5...I'll put a hundy on the over... http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/05/nfl-2014-win-totals-las-vegas-hilton-carolina-panthers
GA BILLS FAN Posted May 20, 2014 Posted May 20, 2014 I just saw this, too. They predict the Bills at 6.5 wins, good enough to tie Cleveland. This would be a Cleveland dream scenario as they would have 4th and 5th pick in 2015 draft and a Buffalo nightmare scenario.
NDBUFFCUSEFAN Posted May 20, 2014 Posted May 20, 2014 The. Bills coming in at 6.5...I'll put a hundy on the over... http://ftw.usatoday....rolina-panthers Usually I love hammering homers who take the over but this year I am skeptical, I figured 7.5 was the number.
Rocky Landing Posted May 20, 2014 Posted May 20, 2014 If I recall, that is exactly what it was last year.
Fingon Posted May 20, 2014 Posted May 20, 2014 I don't put much stock in Vegas lines. They aren't really projections of what they think will happen, but merely the points that they expect 50 percent of the public will bet on the over and 50 on the under. There's a reason lines move as people bet on one outcome significantly more than the other.
Rocky Landing Posted May 20, 2014 Posted May 20, 2014 On a lighter note, we are 80/1 to win the Super Bowl, a slight improvement over last year.
SBUffalo Posted May 20, 2014 Posted May 20, 2014 My original guess was 5-11 or 6-10, but I've recently started feeling more optimistic. I said 8-8 after the draft, and I'll stick with that.
mrags Posted May 20, 2014 Posted May 20, 2014 10 wins possibly 11 who are you and what have you done with Kellyto83TD???
Phlegm Alley Posted May 20, 2014 Posted May 20, 2014 I don't put much stock in Vegas lines. They aren't really projections of what they think will happen, but merely the points that they expect 50 percent of the public will bet on the over and 50 on the under. There's a reason lines move as people bet on one outcome significantly more than the other. The teams with the highest odds last year, in the eyes of Vegas, came to fruition, as they correctly picked the NFL's Final Four, based on odds.
PromoTheRobot Posted May 20, 2014 Posted May 20, 2014 The teams with the highest odds last year, in the eyes of Vegas, came to fruition, as they correctly picked the NFL's Final Four, based on odds. Well then why play the games?
HurlyBurly51 Posted May 20, 2014 Posted May 20, 2014 I just saw this, too. They predict the Bills at 6.5 wins, good enough to tie Cleveland. This would be a Cleveland dream scenario as they would have 4th and 5th pick in 2015 draft and a Buffalo nightmare scenario. That'll be fun.
boyst Posted May 20, 2014 Posted May 20, 2014 HHouston with Fitz at the helm. Ha. Imagine them hitting the playoffs! Agree on the Panthers, I hope Cam doesn't waste away there
jimmy10 Posted May 20, 2014 Posted May 20, 2014 On a lighter note, we are 80/1 to win the Super Bowl, a slight improvement over last year. Huh. I was in Vegas a few weeks ago and got 60/1. Laid down $50.
maryland-bills-fan Posted May 20, 2014 Posted May 20, 2014 This is the betting line. It is where they think most people will put their money, not what they think the finial records will be. Actually it is not a guess at where 50% of the people will bet, because the odds they publish has to leave a profit for Vegas.
eball Posted May 20, 2014 Posted May 20, 2014 I'm sure everyone noticed that the money line for Bills over 6.5 is -130 -- which means you're paying 30% juice for that bet. The under is even money.
mannc Posted May 20, 2014 Posted May 20, 2014 The teams with the highest odds last year, in the eyes of Vegas, came to fruition, as they correctly picked the NFL's Final Four, based on odds. And the same four picked this year, too. But it's pretty hard to disagree. I would be absolutely shocked if neither SF nor SEA is in the Super Bowl this year. Only slightly less shocked if someone other than Denver or NE makes it in the AFC, although those two teams don't look as strong as the top dogs in the NFC. Is the NFL becoming more predictable, like the NBA, where you are pretty certain at the beginning of the year who the top four teams will be?
Fingon Posted May 20, 2014 Posted May 20, 2014 The teams with the highest odds last year, in the eyes of Vegas, came to fruition, as they correctly picked the NFL's Final Four, based on odds. The teams with the highest odds are the teams that the public expects to be good this year. Vegas may think the Browns will win 9 games this year, but if they can't get equal bettors on both sides the line won't be 9 games. Lines don't move because the line-setters suddenly get new info on a team and change their minds, they move because the bets are coming in favoring one side over the other.
jimmy10 Posted May 20, 2014 Posted May 20, 2014 You mean odds in Vegas are supposed to reflect/direct bettors' behavior, and not actually predict what's going to happen? I choose not to believe that. Instead, I will go start another thread about how Las Vegas disrespects us, in addition to ESPN, Jerry Jones and the Freemasons.
plenzmd1 Posted May 20, 2014 Posted May 20, 2014 (edited) The teams with the highest odds are the teams that the public expects to be good this year. Vegas may think the Browns will win 9 games this year, but if they can't get equal bettors on both sides the line won't be 9 games. Lines don't move because the line-setters suddenly get new info on a team and change their minds, they move because the bets are coming in favoring one side over the other. This is not exactly right. For these over under win totals, the 6.5 will NEVER move. What will move is the juice one pays to place the bet. As EBall pointed out, one needs to bet $130 right now on the over to win $100.If sentiment shifts over the next 3 months that makes the bet more attractive, that $130 might move to $150 or $160. And, Vegas overall does not care near as much about a 50/50 line as every one thinks. These guys are sharps that run the casinos, and they know the public for the most part will lose betting football. They make lines where they hope they don't cant hammered by the sharps betting the right side on Monday before the rest of dolts bet the wrong side on Saturday and Sunday. Not unusual for a book to have 75% of the money on one side, and they they are comfortable with that as long as the money comes from slubs like us, not the guys who make a living betting. Only thing the books really hate is favorites winning more than 50% of the NFL games, as the majority of Saturday Sunday bettors play the favorites.If favorites are wining at a 60% clip, Vegas is getting murdered. Edited May 20, 2014 by plenzmd1
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