ESPN Insider--some doubt as to how Watkins game translates at NFL leve

[K-9]

Completely disagree. By your logic:

 

If the Bills could trade Kiko Alonso for a 2015 5th round pick, nobody can evaluate that as a bad trade until we get to Day 3 of the 2015 draft and see who's available on the board in the 5th round.

 

Decisions are made based on risk tolerance and currently available information. Whaley surrendering a 2015 1st rounder when his QB has yet to prove himself is a dangerous move and assumes that (a) EJ is a franchise QB and (b) The Bills, coming off a 6-10 season are on the cusp of the playoffs and © Watkins will help them get there in 2014 even though many great WR prospects take time to adjust to the NFL game

 

Bad risk but it apparently has gotten BILLS fans excited because the move was "bold"

 

Again, another description of how a front office should make decisions based on fear. YOU CAN'T DO THAT!

 

"Ooh, I'm afraid to take a chance on acquiring elite talent at other positions because my QB, going into his 2nd year, MAY not be good enough. Let's just wait and see until we know better." As laughable as that is, that's what everyone who somehow needs to link the Watkins trade with EJ Manuel and a future QB available in a future draft that WE CAN'T EVEN IDENTIFY YET, is saying.

 

Building a team is not a linear process. You don't acquire positions in order. It can't be done. In the meantime, acquire the best talent you can at EVERY position.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Edited May 16, 2014 by K-9

[PromoTheRobot]

 

A front office that has presided over 3 straight 6-10 seasons?

Which front office are you referring to? The one that took over one year ago? Quite a trick squeezing 3 whole seasons into one year.

[Wayne Cubed]

Completely disagree. By your logic:

 

If the Bills could trade Kiko Alonso for a 2015 5th round pick, nobody can evaluate that as a bad trade until we get to Day 3 of the 2015 draft and see who's available on the board in the 5th round.

 

Decisions are made based on risk tolerance and currently available information. Whaley surrendering a 2015 1st rounder when his QB has yet to prove himself is a dangerous move and assumes that (a) EJ is a franchise QB and (b) The Bills, coming off a 6-10 season are on the cusp of the playoffs and © Watkins will help them get there in 2014 even though many great WR prospects take time to adjust to the NFL game

 

Bad risk but it apparently has gotten BILLS fans excited because the move was "bold"

 

So because the Bills don't know if EJ is a franchise QB and they came off a 6-10 season, they should just wallow in their own self pity? No need to acquire talent at other positions or take risks at improving the team with elite talent.

 

It's funny, but the Bills of the past would go out and get "elite" talent in the 3rd year of a rebuild (Mario Williams, TO, etc.). Make a big splash. But they do it in year 2 of a build and it's considered too risky.

Edited May 16, 2014 by Wayne Cubed

[Dawgg]

Again, another description of how a front office should make decisions based on fear. YOU CAN'T DO THAT!

 

"Ooh, I'm afraid to take a chance on acquiring elite talent at other positions because my QB, going into his 2nd year, MAY not be good enough. Let's just wait and see until we know better." As laughable as that is, that's what everyone who somehow needs to link the Watkins trade with EJ Manuel and a future QB available in a future draft that WE CAN'T EVEN IDENTIFY YET, is saying.

 

Building a team is not a linear process. You don't acquire positions in order. It can't be done. In the meantime, acquire the best talent you can at EVERY position.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

Of course, projecting the use of next year's first rounder is a hypothetical exercise. And being bold is great - I'm the last person to suggest a lame, conservative course of action. I just think this type of trade was reckless. I believe that trading a future first rounder to move up 5 spots for a WR when the team has a pretty good chance of missing the playoffs (again) is not a prudent risk to take. I of course hope I am dead wrong.

 

I guess it's a matter of what the alternatives were. I agree with the Bills' desire to surround EJ with playmakers. What's the better outcome?

 

(1)

 

Watkins + No 2015 1st rounder

 

or

 

(2)

 

Ebron + 2015 1st rounder

 

If the Bills were a playoff team the year before or if EJ had established himself as the franchise QB, I'd take (1). Given where the Bills are today, I'd take (2) and I'm of course hoping that this trade proves me dead wrong

[dave mcbride]

I share those thoughts. WR is definitely important, no doubt about that - but is it so valuable that you should surrender next year's first round pick? Especially when your QB has yet to establish himself as a franchise QB? It was a reckless risk given where the franchise sits today. Again, I hope I'm wrong and Watkins pushes the team to a playoff berth but even the very best receivers take some time to acclimate the NFL game (Julio Jones included).

I generally agree with your perspective in theory, but I've thought for a while now that the Bills lacked elite skill players for too long and that it hampered the entire offense. They really haven't had top receiving threat since Moulds prior to his early 2003 injury, and coincidentally enough 2002 is the last time the Bills finished in the top 13 teams of the league for offense. The position really, really matters, I think, and I also believe that Watkins is a phenomenal player. I wasn't sold on either Ebron or Beckham as elite talents, so I was OK with the deal.

 

EDIT: In Moulds great years - 1998-2002 - the Bills finished 6th, 9th, 11th, 13th, and 11th in yards. In 2003, he was injured in game 5 and never returned to his former self. They finished 30th that year and in every year since they haven't finished above 19th except for one season: 2011, when they finished 14th. Hell, they even moved the ball in 2001, finishing with a higher ranking than they did even in 2011 despite racking up only 3 wins.

 

http://www.pro-footb....com/teams/buf/

Edited May 16, 2014 by dave mcbride

[Dawgg]

So because the Bills don't know if EJ is a franchise QB and they came off a 6-10 season, they should just wallow in their own self pity? No need to acquire talent at other positions or take risks at improving the team with elite talent.

 

Taking Ebron (or whoever Whaley and Co deems worthy) at #9 while maintaining a 2015 1st round draft asset is hardly wallowing away in self pity.

[dave mcbride]

Taking Ebron (or whoever Whaley and Co deems worthy) at #9 while maintaining a 2015 1st round draft asset is hardly wallowing away in self pity.

See my post above.

[Wayne Cubed]

Taking Ebron (or whoever Whaley and Co deems worthy) at #9 while maintaining a 2015 1st round draft asset is hardly wallowing away in self pity.

 

Yes, but Whaley and Co. deemed that they weren't comfortable taking someone at #9, hence the move up and Watkins selection.

[mannc]

I generally agree with your perspective in theory, but I've thought for a while now that the Bills lacked elite skill players for too long and that it hampered the entire offense. They really haven't had top receiving threat since Moulds prior to his early 2003 injury, and coincidentally enough 2002 is the last time the Bills finished in the top 13 teams of the league for offense. The position really, really matters, I think, and I also believe that Watkins is a phenomenal player. I wasn't sold on either Ebron or Beckham as elite talents, so I was OK with the deal.

 

http://www.pro-footb....com/teams/buf/

Still not sold on the trade, because I'm not sure Watkins is THAT much better than the other options at 9, but you are right: WR really, really matters--second only to QB. Look what AJ Green has done for the Bengals. Makes everyone on the field better. If you are going to pay a bundle to move up, move up for a game-breaking WR, not a lineman or linebacker. Obviously, it's OK to move up for a (perceived) franchise QB, too, but the price is much steeper (see Griffin III, Robert).

[Rocky Landing]

Again, another description of how a front office should make decisions based on fear. YOU CAN'T DO THAT!

 

"Ooh, I'm afraid to take a chance on acquiring elite talent at other positions because my QB, going into his 2nd year, MAY not be good enough. Let's just wait and see until we know better." As laughable as that is, that's what everyone who somehow needs to link the Watkins trade with EJ Manuel and a future QB available in a future draft that WE CAN'T EVEN IDENTIFY YET, is saying.

 

Building a team is not a linear process. You don't acquire positions in order. It can't be done. In the meantime, acquire the best talent you can at EVERY position.

 

GO BILLS!!!

That's really just hyperbole. You're equating risk assessment, and valuation with fear. There's a big difference between fear and rationality, just like there is a big difference between courage and recklessness. Your continued assertion that we can't make any judgement on the value of future drafts because we don't know who will be in that draft is silly. To say that we can't, or shouldn't make any predictions of future needs, even based on our current roster, is short-sighted. To say that anyone debating such subjects is operating out of fear is insulting.

 

For the record, I am happy with the Watkins trade. But, I see no problem with evaluating its value based on how it fits with our current roster, and plausible future needs-- including EJ Manuel, and the quarterback position.

[John from Riverside]

Which front office are you referring to? The one that took over one year ago? Quite a trick squeezing 3 whole seasons into one year.

 

Dont you know....no matter who is in charge and for how long they are totally responsible for all the previous losing years....

 

It doesnt matter if they have drafted great.....traded great....and make smart moves since their short time stint so far.....they are responsibble no matter what!

[C.Biscuit97]

I posted this in the Watkins thread but it fits this thread perfectly:

 

Clemson's coach was on WGR during the draft and addressed this criticism. To paraphrase, he basically stated that the high number of screen passes caught by Sammy his senior year was a product of the way defenses were playing him.

 

DC's were absolutely terrified of Watkin's down the field by his senior year so they gave him a ton of cushion; 7-10 yards the CB's were playing off of him because of his speed. Clemson was more then happy to just start throwing screens to a wide open Watkins due to this huge cushion. Why wouldn't you throw to a wide open Sammy Watkins over and over if that's what the defense was giving you?? He is such a tremendous player after the catch, that he can turn those 2 yard screens into 15+ yard chunks with no problem.

 

Just go look at what he did as a freshmen. He can run any route you want him to. The fact that he was just destroying CB's down the field was the reason he was given such a huge cushion his senior season.

 

That is why I love this pick. He is a legitimate elite WR. He can do it all and score from anywhere. He has the height and athleticism to out jump CB's down the field. He has the size to run through them on screens. He has the agility of a RB with the ball in his hands.. just look at some of the cuts he makes in the highlight reels. Defenses are going to learn pretty quickly that you either give him a hefty cushion or he is going to run right by your CB. This will lead to having to shade the safety to his side of the field opening up all types of space for his teammates. He truly will make the entire offense more dangerous just by being on the field.

 

Excellent post and it makes me feel better because the amount of short passes he caught were a concern. Too often, the Bills have gotten picked apart because they were giving giant cushions. It'd be nice to get 10 yards and take what the defense gives us for once.

[kickedface]

so what i'm gathering here is that either the bills are going to win it all this year or they are going to suck worse than any previous team. hmm i guess that can work, though i like to think its somewhere in the middle there. but what do i know, i don't work for any teams front office or espn or any other equivalent.

[Dawgg]

I generally agree with your perspective in theory, but I've thought for a while now that the Bills lacked elite skill players for too long and that it hampered the entire offense. They really haven't had top receiving threat since Moulds prior to his early 2003 injury, and coincidentally enough 2002 is the last time the Bills finished in the top 13 teams of the league for offense. The position really, really matters, I think, and I also believe that Watkins is a phenomenal player. I wasn't sold on either Ebron or Beckham as elite talents, so I was OK with the deal.

 

EDIT: In Moulds great years - 1998-2002 - the Bills finished 6th, 9th, 11th, 13th, and 11th in yards. In 2003, he was injured in game 5 and never returned to his former self. They finished 30th that year and in every year since they haven't finished above 19th except for one season: 2011, when they finished 14th. Hell, they even moved the ball in 2001, finishing with a higher ranking than they did even in 2011 despite racking up only 3 wins.

 

http://www.pro-footb....com/teams/buf/

 

Maybe you're right. I sure as hell hope you're right! But it seemed that by all accounts the Bills were very comfortable taking Ebron if they couldn't get Sammy Watkins. I think this trade centers around a single question:

 

What's the probability next year's pick ends up in the Top 10?

 

I personally think that probability is high because of uncertain at QB situation with no credible backup, lack of depth on the roster (still one more draft away), difficult schedule, and recent performance coming off 6-10 season).

 

The Bills brass, on the other hand, thinks it's low.

[FireChan]

The Bills brass also realizes that the NFL is win or get out. Fans are already considering a rebuild in two years. The FO isn't. They're considering this next season in a vacuum. Whaley isn't concerned about 2016, he needs to win now.

[Dawgg]

The Bills brass also realizes that the NFL is win or get out. Fans are already considering a rebuild in two years. The FO isn't. They're considering this next season in a vacuum. Whaley isn't concerned about 2016, he needs to win now.

So he goes all-in on a player at a position where the very best prospects often take a year or two to develop into the studs that they are?

[dave mcbride]

Maybe you're right. I sure as hell hope you're right! But it seemed that by all accounts the Bills were very comfortable taking Ebron if they couldn't get Sammy Watkins. I think this trade centers around a single question:

 

What's the probability next year's pick ends up in the Top 10?

 

I personally think that probability is high because of uncertain at QB situation with no credible backup, lack of depth on the roster (still one more draft away), difficult schedule, and recent performance coming off 6-10 season).

 

The Bills brass, on the other hand, thinks it's low.

 

We shall see. It'll be fun to watch if nothing else.

[3rdand12]

Maybe you're right. I sure as hell hope you're right! But it seemed that by all accounts the Bills were very comfortable taking Ebron if they couldn't get Sammy Watkins. I think this trade centers around a single question:

 

What's the probability next year's pick ends up in the Top 10?

 

I personally think that probability is high because of uncertain at QB situation with no credible backup, lack of depth on the roster (still one more draft away), difficult schedule, and recent performance coming off 6-10 season).

 

The Bills brass, on the other hand, thinks it's low.

Thats the plan Dawgg

 

So he goes all-in on a player at a position where the very best prospects often take a year or two to develop into the studs that they are?

Thats the trick. this kid is very likely to just step in and garner respect from Defenses. NFL ready and climbing.

Not sure they are right or wrong but you are correct in what the Bills are thinking by now.

[K-9]

That's really just hyperbole. You're equating risk assessment, and valuation with fear. There's a big difference between fear and rationality, just like there is a big difference between courage and recklessness. Your continued assertion that we can't make any judgement on the value of future drafts because we don't know who will be in that draft is silly. To say that we can't, or shouldn't make any predictions of future needs, even based on our current roster, is short-sighted. To say that anyone debating such subjects is operating out of fear is insulting.

 

For the record, I am happy with the Watkins trade. But, I see no problem with evaluating its value based on how it fits with our current roster, and plausible future needs-- including EJ Manuel, and the quarterback position.

 

Not hyperbole at all. You don't last long in the league when you have paralysis of analysis. Can't run a FO while being afraid to make moves.

 

But like I said in another thread, we are looking at things from two entirely different perspectives.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Big C]

I think even with poor QB play we can make like the 2012 Vikings and slip into the playoffs with a great running game, good defense and our own Percy Harvin in the form of Sammy Watkins (who will ideally make it through the whole season of course).