ESPN Insider--some doubt as to how Watkins game translates at NFL leve

[BillsVet]

A front office that has presided over 3 straight 6-10 seasons?

 

If you consider Brandon, 5 seasons with no more than 6 wins.

 

I can't believe people are comparing the Julio Jones trade to Buffalo's deal for Watkins. At the same time, the elite receivers in the NFL are great assets to have. But last year, Atlanta (Jones), Detroit (C. Johnson), Dallas (Bryant), Houston (A. Johnson), Chicago (Marshall/Jeffrey), Cincinnati (A. Green) and Cleveland (Gordon) won a combined 0 playoff games. One could make the case D. Thomas in Denver is a #1, but I think some of that is due to Peyton Manning.

 

Only Cincinnati made the post-season, losing to SD in the wild card round. Yet, the premier teams seem to get by without a true #1: New England, Seattle, San Francisco, Green Bay, Baltimore, and New Orleans. I think that says a great deal about team building strategy and the trends around the league.

[CA OC Bills Fan]

On Sirius XM last night, Gil Brandt and (I think) Alex Marvez were talking about the trade. Based on earlier comments, I believed Gil thought it was a bad move on Buffalo's part. He asked Alex, "Do you think they gave up too much if they make the playoffs." Then went on to say he wrote an article earlier in the day saying that he believes Buffalo will make the playoffs this year because of this trade. Alex was skeptical, saying he doesn't believe the Bills can win the division and doesn't think there will be two playoff teams from the AFC East, but Gil stuck to his opinion.

[Rocky Landing]

High Risk/High Reward... (deja vu)...

[FireChan]

Could you please explain how they went "all in him"

 

Did they trade all their draft picks this year? Next year?

 

 

 

You know...this would make more sense if this was the ONLY thing the bills have done this offseason.....

 

Im not going to get into the list because Im sure you already know....but we have made moves in trades, and free agents......and we had ALL of our draft picks this year except for a 6th......

 

This team is better at nearly every position then it was last year and this is WITHOUT the Sammy Watkins pick

 

Uh, we gave up a first and a fourth to trade him? That's a lot of confidence in a prospect. If your definition of "all-in" needs us to give up 14 picks, then no, I guess we didn't go all in.

 

Let's put it this way. If he busts, it will be one of the worst busts in Bills history. Because it doesn't just cost us 1 pick, it cost us 3.

Edited May 15, 2014 by FireChan

[Kelly the Dog]

What's really going to be uber-annoying is during next year's draft, if and when Sammy Watkins has finished his rookie season and didn't catch 100 passes for 1500 yards and 10 TDs, all the naysayers are going to say, "See?! He's not Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald! I told you so! It was a stupid trade!"

 

When, of course, in their rookie seasons, Calvin Johnson was 48-756-4 and Larry Fitzgerald was 58-780-8, and both clearly showed flashes that they were going to be superstars.

[Mickey]

Fair enough. I hope he turns into a Hall of Fame player and that the Bills never look back. But this was a pretty reckless trade to make for a non-QB and if I'm a Browns fan, I feel very good about the chances of next year's pick being a good one.

Playing it safe is what they have been doing and that has led to one 6-10 season after another. Risk nothing and you gain nothing. What you see as reckless, I see as bold. I would rather see them take risks and win big or fail big than watch them guarantee us another 5 years of mediocrity.

[billsgpr88]

So you are telling me you wouldn't have made that trade for AJ Green or Julio Jones?

 

 

 

Yeah, they really bet the farm...I guess when teams just draft a player in round 1 that contributes nothing which happens all the time, like Aaron Maybin, its just a bad pick, but when they use it to get a pretty much sure-fire WR stud, its "mortgaging the future"....

 

 

Exactly. one thing that is never mentioned in the national media: How many busts are there every year in the first 10 picks? The heavy criticism of trading the first round completely disregards the possibility of that pick being a bust. They criticize the present and completely forget about the past. There's no memory and no accountability in the world of sports writing.

[NoSaint]

Lmao!!! Seriously? Supposed to be the best WR prospect in 5 years and because the Bills drafted him, now there is "doubt" as to how good he will be...

 

GTFO...let me guess Mike "nose up the Patriots @ss" Rodak wrote this?

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/10927729/nfl-sammy-watkins-impact-not-equal-price-buffalo-bills-paid

 

to be fair, people were saying the other side of the story before the draft -- go check out the predraft threads with doubts about his height, and links to articles about that, and his catches behind the line etc..... you can find someone on both sides of just about any topic.

[Dr. Fong]

I'd love to see something written by this guy prior to the draft voicing concern over Watkins. Because I didn't see a single thing talking about he might not be what he's advertised to be. As far as the first round pick next year, I don't think it's going to be a top 10 pick and even if it were I'd rather have Cyrus Kuandjio this year than wait for a rookie next year. They kept the second round pick in what was pretty universally billed as a very deep draft. I'm good with it all around.

[A Dog Named Kelso]

Fair enough. I hope he turns into a Hall of Fame player and that the Bills never look back. But this was a pretty reckless trade to make for a non-QB and if I'm a Browns fan, I feel very good about the chances of next year's pick being a good one.

 

Having multiple high picks does not ensure a team will succeed. Look at the Browns and Jags for that. How many top 15 picks have they had it the past 7 years? The correct picks are what matters. Losing one first round pick(if you are picking correctly) is better than five(if you are picking poorly). If the Bills believe he is a player worth two 1st round picks the question isn't if he is worth it, the question is do you believe they made the pick correctly.

 

Also, where were the concerns of Watkins by these experts before the draft?

Edited May 15, 2014 by A Dog Named Kelso

[Deranged Rhino]

I'd love to see something written by this guy prior to the draft voicing concern over Watkins. Because I didn't see a single thing talking about he might not be what he's advertised to be. As far as the first round pick next year, I don't think it's going to be a top 10 pick and even if it were I'd rather have Cyrus Kuandjio this year than wait for a rookie next year. They kept the second round pick in what was pretty universally billed as a very deep draft. I'm good with it all around.

 

Your logic and sound thinking has no place in this forum.

[Fan in Chicago]

If you consider Brandon, 5 seasons with no more than 6 wins.

 

I can't believe people are comparing the Julio Jones trade to Buffalo's deal for Watkins. At the same time, the elite receivers in the NFL are great assets to have. But last year, Atlanta (Jones), Detroit (C. Johnson), Dallas (Bryant), Houston (A. Johnson), Chicago (Marshall/Jeffrey), Cincinnati (A. Green) and Cleveland (Gordon) won a combined 0 playoff games. One could make the case D. Thomas in Denver is a #1, but I think some of that is due to Peyton Manning.

 

Only Cincinnati made the post-season, losing to SD in the wild card round. Yet, the premier teams seem to get by without a true #1: New England, Seattle, San Francisco, Green Bay, Baltimore, and New Orleans. I think that says a great deal about team building strategy and the trends around the league.

 

So, who do you propose the Bills should have drafted this year ? How about last year ?

 

And, Crabtree, Boldin are not #1 receivers ?

 

What are you realy complaining about and what do you think the Bills should have done differently the past two years ?

[CountryCletus]

 

They do, of course. But man I have to tell you, the last 14 seasons has me wondering at times

 

I admit, I love me some Kool Aid, but right now I feel it... The turning of a corner... Something is happening in that locker room and the product on the field is going to be completely different than what we've seen in a long LONG time!

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

 

 

You, and a lot of others, simply can't come to grips with the fact the Bills have evaluated their roster differently than you have.

 

They think they have their QB (it doesn't matter what you or I think).

 

They think the team will contend for the playoffs.

 

If they are correct, the 1st round pick they gave up to get a stud on the roster will be in the 20s -- not top 10.

 

Those are FACTS -- not the ramblings of a homer or pie-in-the-sky musings.

 

Just enjoy the freaking season and see if their calculated gamble (that isn't much of a gamble) pays off.

 

Great post. Reality is reality whether we agree with the prognosis of not. The position at OBD is crystal clear.

 

And I, like most non-sulker non-eeyore types, don't spend a lot of time worrying about whether they are right or wrong in May. That is kind of what the season is for.

 

In the mean time it's fun to think they had a plan and executed it. So they are really 100% accountable. No circumstances to point to as victims if it doesn't play out.

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

Great post. Reality is reality whether we agree with the prognosis of not. The position at OBD is crystal clear.

 

And I, like most non-sulker non-eeyore types, don't spend a lot of time worrying about whether they are right or wrong in May. That is kind of what the season is for.

 

In the mean time it's fun to think they had a plan and executed it. So they are really 100% accountable. No circumstances to point to as victims if it doesn't play out.

 

Agree with your post, and the post from Kelly T. Dogg that sparked your reply. The other dawgg doesn't like the trade, and that's fine, but I read a couple posts where he called the trade 'reckless'. Call me crazy, but the trade appeared to be anything BUT reckless. In fact, it appears to have been considered, designed and executed flawlessly by the front office. Time will tell if it was the right choice, but that's the same for every draft every time every year. Seems to me Whaley et al have a plan, have faith in EJ and are trying to build a team around him.

[papazoid]

this trade UP was more about Russ & Doug taking their only shot at keeping their jobs with new ownership.

 

 

if the Bills make the Playoffs they have a chance....slim, but they do have a chance at staying.

 

if the Bills miss the playoffs they are both gone.

 

Sammy Watkins is going to be a nice player. he will need to become a pro bowler to justify the high cost.

[GunnerBill]

CJ Spiller was once considered the most dynamic player in the draft. I think Watkins is a very very very good player. But that doesn't make it a good trade. The old regime would have sat tight at 9 and reached for a player with a late first round grade (see: Donte Whitner). The new regime actually knows how to draft well, which is all the more reason why I think this trade was reckless.

 

You have to consider where the franchise is when making the trade. 3 straight 6-10 seasons. "Potential" franchise QB, yet unproven. Questionable depth. This makes it a high risk trade because the probability of another subpar season is by no means insignificant. Under these circumstances, do you surrender next year's first rounder to move up 5 spots? I don't think so and nor would most top front offices.

 

I think you have described the trade in two different ways here. I don't agree with your first description, I do however, agree with your second description. Reckless means careless and rash, it implies a lack of calculation. I don't believe that is a fair interpretation. The Bills had clearly been calculating this move for a number of weeks if not longer. Had they traded up successfully for Carlos Hyde in the second giving up their 3 and 4 I think that would have been somewhat reckless. It was an "oh crap here goes the run on running backs let's do it now" type decision. The fact that they were originally offering their 3rd and 5th and got more desperate to the point that they were offering their 3rd and 4th demonstrates that to an extent.

 

However, whilst Watkins I believe was high risk.... but a calculated high risk. The Bills had done their planning and their homework properly, they knew what they thought the consequences of the trade would be and had reconciled themselves with them (as you state maybe easier to do that when you think you might not be around to face the music).

 

It's worth saying that like C.Biscuit I had doubts about the trade up as a strategy and I also share some of the doubts about Watkins game translating (or at least doing so quickly). My take on the whole thing is that it's nice to see a young GM willing to show the courage of his convictions.

 

We might simply be having a linguistic debate about the meaning of reckless here, but I think that is a step further than high risk and it's a step I can't quite get to on this trade.

[bisonbrigade]

Success will seal the lips of the haters.

[QB Bills]

It will prove to be another typical Bills blunder in a few years. A few intelligent posters are here trying to explain to some of you why and you don't seem to get it.

 

This team that is "going all in" for the playoffs let their all pro safety walk for nothing and traded their best receiver for nothing. There will be growing pains for Watkins this year and I don't think anyone would have expected him to make Stevie irrelevant in year one, if ever.

[The Wiz]

Things that are believable according to numeric rank:

72. Y2K Bug

156. Mayan Calendar = end of the world

342. Rapture

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