Report: Bills attempted to trade up for Carlos Hyde

[The Big Cat]

You have some decent points but Spiller having a lousy? 4.6 and nearly a 1,000 yards is a lousy year? The guy put up 100+ on the Panthers (6.4), the 2nd best defense in the NFL. His last carry against the Browns was a 54 yard touchdown. Why do you think that was? Because he was ineffective? Or because he was hurt? He also shares time with a very good rb who needs to get his carries.

 

But let's compared resumes. Spiller was the best offensive player in his draft, a top 10 pick, averages 5.1 ypc for his career, and made a pro bowl gaining 1200 yards at 6 ypc. Hackett ran those powerhouse offenses at Cuse and had a dad that got him where he is. I have hopes for Hackett but because of his playcalling and Spiller's injuries, he limited one of the best weapons in the NFL.

 

Right, and I'll concede that Hackett probably would have had more success with Spiller out of the spread. But is that what we really want?

 

Also, the play against the Browns was a broken play that he bounced to the outside and found daylight. Again, I LOVE the fact that we have a guy who can do that, but a much more impressive run with his long run for TD against the Falcons. THAT'S the kind of vision and patience, that if shown consistently, would make this guy a !@#$ing God among men.

 

And let me be clear: 933 yards and 2 TD's is lousy...for CJ Spiller. And that's all he should be compared against.

[Kelly the Dog]

 

 

Well, I guess one is not allowed to be critical of Stevie's antics and knack for blowing it when it counts most and make the argument you made above.

 

My position on Stevie was firm. His contributions were nice but not great, and he was too much of a liability. There's really nothing left to say on the matter.

 

As far as Spiller goes, I'm fully confident and optimistic he'll put up monster numbers in our run heavy offense. I want him to. Of course I do. But he has a lot left to prove. He's had more bad years than good, and he had a pretty lousy one last year. Now he's headed into his fifth year. I don't know why fans get so upset with my patience for him wearing thin.

 

 

 

And that's completely due to his ability to bust one at any time, which is why I love the fact that he's a Bill. You know as well as anyone that 4.6 was not his average carry. He could have busted a bunch of other runs last year, IF he had the vision and patience of Fred Jackson.

So in other words he's so great he should just bust long runs all the time? The fact is, he was terrible last year as you say, and he was still ninth in the league in yards per carry. Better than Fred Jackson, who is my favorite Bill. We were terrible, with no passing attack, injuries everywhere, and Spiller was on one leg and he still averaged 4.6 a carry. You guys seem to just forget that he gets yards.

 

Sure, you want a guy to be consistent. I understand that. But the facts are the facts and everyone in the league plays under the same rules, and when you get a couple hundred carries it even out. And the FACTS are, that he is at the very top of the league, the very top, and higher per carry than guys that are better than him.

[MDH]

So in other words he's so great he should just bust long runs all the time? The fact is, he was terrible last year as you say, and he was still ninth in the league in yards per carry. Better than Fred Jackson, who is my favorite Bill. We were terrible, with no passing attack, injuries everywhere, and Spiller was on one leg and he still averaged 4.6 a carry. You guys seem to just forget that he gets yards.

 

Sure, you want a guy to be consistent. I understand that. But the facts are the facts and everyone in the league plays under the same rules, and when you get a couple hundred carries it even out. And the FACTS are, that he is at the very top of the league, the very top, and higher per carry than guys that are better than him.

 

Does a guy who gets 1 yard a carry 19 times then busts off an 80 yard run help the offense sustain drives and win games?

 

This is obviously hyperbole but it's the type of question that has to be considered when discussing Spiller's effectiveness. It's also one of the (many) reasons the D was on the field so much last year. I'll take FJ's solid and steady production any day of the week. It puts the offense in 2nd and 5-6 instead of 2nd and 9-11. There's a big difference in the way an offense can attack a team given those down & distances.

 

I like Spiller as a 10-13 carry a game, change of pace, big play back. I wouldn't even call him a 3rd down back because he's not very good at blitz pickup. The problem is that you can get those types of backs in the 4th round and don't have to break the bank for them. It really all depends on what Spiller's contract demands are.

 

If they're reasonable then keep him around but if he's wanting money like a top 10 back then I say pass.

Edited May 14, 2014 by MDH

[The Big Cat]

Does a guy who gets 1 yard a carry 19 times then busts off an 80 yard run help the offense sustain drives and win games?

 

This is obviously hyperbole but it's the type of question that has to be considered when discussing Spiller's effectiveness. It's also one of the (many) reasons the D was on the field so much last year. I'll take FJ's solid and steady production any day of the week. It puts the offense in 2nd and 5-6 instead of 2nd and 9-11. There's a big difference in the way an offense can attack a team given those down & distances.

 

I like Spiller as a 10-13 carry a game, change of pace, big play back. I wouldn't even call him a 3rd down back because he's not very good at blitz pickup. The problem is that you can get those types of backs in the 4th round and don't have to break the bank for them. It really all depends on what Spiller's contract demands are.

 

If they're reasonable then keep him around but if he's wanting money like a top 10 back then I say pass.

 

It's not hyperbole. Not totally, at least. I'm putting together a graph to show this very point. Stand by.

[KD in CA]

It's not hyperbole. Not totally, at least. I'm putting together a graph to show this very point. Stand by.

 

Excellent. We need more graphs around here.

 

 

The graph I'd love to see is one that shows if he gets more or less effective as the game goes on and the carries pile up. My sense has always been the 5 ypc average wouldn't hold if he was really getting feature back carry #s.

[Kelly the Dog]

Does a guy who gets 1 yard a carry 19 times then busts off an 80 yard run help the offense sustain drives and win games?

 

This is obviously hyperbole but it's the type of question that has to be considered when discussing Spiller's effectiveness. It's also one of the (many) reasons the D was on the field so much last year. I'll take FJ's solid and steady production any day of the week. It puts the offense in 2nd and 5-6 instead of 2nd and 9-11. There's a big difference in the way an offense can attack a team given those down & distances.

 

I like Spiller as a 10-13 carry a game, change of pace, big play back. I wouldn't even call him a 3rd down back because he's not very good at blitz pickup. The problem is that you can get those types of backs in the 4th round and don't have to break the bank for them. It really all depends on what Spiller's contract demands are.

 

If they're reasonable then keep him around but if he's wanting money like a top 10 back then I say pass.

That's why you pair him up with Fred Jackson, Bryce Brown or Carlos Hyde. I don't think anyone is saying give CJ the ball 25 times a game, and if they are they are nuts (hardly anyone gets it 25 times a game, but that's a different discussion).

 

in 2012, when he was healthy and we had a decent line (remember last year we had no LG instead of Andy Levitre, a struggling Urbik and a terrible Pears) Spiller averaged 6.0 yards a carry. And people complain that he got 2-0-16 to get that 6.0 yards a carry.

 

You know what three straight carries of 2-0-16 get you? A first down every single time.

 

Again, I understand the argument. Any coach would rather have a player get 4 yards a time for three carries than 0-0-12. But Spiller is here to be a game breaker. That's why we have Fred Jackson, to be the 4-4-4 guy.

 

I can't friggin' wait to have Watkins and MWilliams on the field, with Woods or Goodwin in the slot, a massive OL with Kujo and with CWilliams or Richardson at OG and Spiller in the backfield healthy. Not to mention a healthy training camp for the QB and the entire team with a coach and OC who are not learning on the job. When that happens, watch out. He's going to run wild.

[MDH]

I can't friggin' wait to have Watkins and MWilliams on the field, with Woods or Goodwin in the slot, a massive OL with Kujo and with CWilliams or Richardson at OG and Spiller in the backfield healthy. Not to mention a healthy training camp for the QB and the entire team with a coach and OC who are not learning on the job. When that happens, watch out. He's going to run wild.

 

Yeah, I like the talent as well. I just hope they can all contribute at a reasonably high level right away. That's 3 rookies we're counting on to solidify previously weak positions. Hopefully they're up to the task.

[Kelly the Dog]

Excellent. We need more graphs around here.

 

 

The graph I'd love to see is one that shows if he gets more or less effective as the game goes on and the carries pile up. My sense has always been the 5 ypc average wouldn't hold if he was really getting feature back carry #s.

Last year, first half 4.1, second half 5.2.

[Buftex]

a) I suspect that it's Jackson that they are trying to replace. If they wanted to get rid of Spiller they would've traded him to the Eagles when they were interested.

b) Anyone who thinks that Spiller is a bust should have the misfortune of seeing him in an offense like Philadelphia's. He would lead the league in rushing and people at TBD would be crying.

 

I don't know man. I like Spiller a lot... but just listening to Marrone throughout the 2013 season, I got the distinct impression that Marrone was not impressed with him. I would not have surprised, nor will I be surprised (just disappointed) if he is traded, or allowed to leave via free agency. Spiller, by his own admission as I recall, owned up to bouncing outside too much this past season, but as has been noted, he was likely trying to avoid some contact, and his instincts were telling him that his speed could get him around the corner... he seemed to have broken this tendency, but it was back in 2013.

 

I do think the offensive play calling (for many reasons) did not really do Spiller a lot of favors. There was never any attempt to get him into space, as Chan was able to do. I think the running game play-calling lacked some imagination last season. I am willing to give Hackett some slack, as there was a lot to overcome for an inexperienced OC.

[C.Biscuit97]

That's why you pair him up with Fred Jackson, Bryce Brown or Carlos Hyde. I don't think anyone is saying give CJ the ball 25 times a game, and if they are they are nuts (hardly anyone gets it 25 times a game, but that's a different discussion).

 

in 2012, when he was healthy and we had a decent line (remember last year we had no LG instead of Andy Levitre, a struggling Urbik and a terrible Pears) Spiller averaged 6.0 yards a carry. And people complain that he got 2-0-16 to get that 6.0 yards a carry.

 

You know what three straight carries of 2-0-16 get you? A first down every single time.

 

Again, I understand the argument. Any coach would rather have a player get 4 yards a time for three carries than 0-0-12. But Spiller is here to be a game breaker. That's why we have Fred Jackson, to be the 4-4-4 guy.

 

I can't friggin' wait to have Watkins and MWilliams on the field, with Woods or Goodwin in the slot, a massive OL with Kujo and with CWilliams or Richardson at OG and Spiller in the backfield healthy. Not to mention a healthy training camp for the QB and the entire team with a coach and OC who are not learning on the job. When that happens, watch out. He's going to run wild.

 

Great points. I'd also add that touches just aren't handoffs (up the middle was the favorite one). It's catches, which IMO, make Spiller even more dangerous because he's in space and doesn't have to take big hits.

 

Rbs who average 6 ypc on 200 carries are extremely rare. What do you guys think Sean Payton would do with Spiller? He is basically a bigger, faster version of Sproles. Hackett, along with Spiller's injury, did a poor job of using him. Also, how many sets of 2 backs with Spiller and Jackson did we ever see? Hackett lacked creativity last year. I hope he opens it up more.

[auburnbillsbacker]

Spiller 2 season ago was elite. Last season he was solid. If they Bills find a way to pass the ball more consistently down the field next season you will see things really open up for Spiller. I hope Watkins helps with that goal. As for Hyde, I wish the Bills would have been able to trade up for him. He would have been 3rd string this season, but would probably compliment Spiller in year 2. I do think the Bills should resign Spiller. It would be my guess that he would receive a reasonable salary. RBs have not received big deals recently.

[The Big Cat]

I promised there would be graphs.

 

Here's how CJ arrived at his 4.6 ypc compared to Shady McCoy (5.1 ypc), Jamaal Charles (5.0 ypc) and two other backs who also ran for 4.6 ypc, Matt Forte and Alfred Morris.

 

The bars represent the percentage of carries at the designated yardage found in the x label.

 

 

The data shows us precisely what we'd expected: Spiller as a disproportionately high number of weak carries (0 yds and 2 yds) but also has a disproprotinate number of long carries (his 77 was longest of this group).

Edited May 15, 2014 by The Big Cat

[Kelly the Dog]

Actually it looks like Spiller gets more two and three yards carries than any of them, too. As well as longer ones and negative ones. Which seems to prove overall, well, not much.

[The Big Cat]

Actually it looks like Spiller gets more two and three yards carries than any of them, too. As well as longer ones and negative ones. Which seems to prove overall, well, not much.

 

Yeah, but those are league-accurate hex codes.

[CountryCletus]

never did or has. Even in his monsterous year, Fred was having great numbers as well. So do we praise CJ for being so great? Or give the line and the playcalling praise?

 

The fact is, CJ has never distanced himself. The fact is, as an early 1st round pick (with the exception of 1 season) has been a disappointment. The fact is, regardless of how much fine he's missed, if we keep making "he had an ankle injury all season" type of excuses then what are we really getting???

 

I hate to bring it up becauE he's no longer on the team. The horse is beat to a pulp at this point. But if people were complaining about Stevie's production (absolutely nothing to do with his on/off field antics) then we should all be lining up at OBD with pitchforks looking to oust CJ.

 

Is it too late to pile on? I'm pretty sure that I can echo a lot of what's already been stated...

 

Personally, I like CJ... Do I think he's worth top 5 money? Nope! Do I think he's capable of too 5 production? YES! I think that is the difference between SJ and CJ... SJ was never going to be a top 5 talent at his position... It's quite possible that CJ had just hit a few years of bad luck. If injuries continue to pile up limiting his production, I think his contract should reflect that. I will be the first person on here complaining if we give him a huge payday, but in full disclosure, I will be the first person on here bitching if we let him walk.

 

You can't find backs with CJ's skill in the 4th round like you can the bigger power backs... It just doesn't happen... The Combination of adequate size, speed and elusiveness is not easily found... Sometimes he's so elusive that he even eludes the active roster...

 

[atlbillsfan1975]

Spiller is the Adam Dunn of football. He will hit a bunch of homers but also lead the league in strike outs

[The Big Cat]

Spiller is the Adam Dunn of football. He will hit a bunch of homers but also lead the league in strike outs

 

Yeah, not only did he have the longest run of the group above (77), he also had the second longest (61) and the shortest (-9).

[Wayne Cubed]

Yeah, but those are league-accurate hex codes.

 

C'mon man, where's the x and y axis labels? How about a graph title? I appreciate the hex color codes though.

[The Big Cat]

And again, this concept is used to deflect the value of his "yards per carry" since he doesn't steadily earn 4.6 yards each time he touches the ball. I understand most backs don't, but CJ (as the charts above indicate) really does have top-heavy gains which skew how his production looks on paper.

 

 

C'mon man, where's the x and y axis labels? How about a graph title? I appreciate the hex color codes though.

 

[C.Biscuit97]

I promised there would be graphs.

 

Here's how CJ arrived at his 4.6 ypc compared to Shady McCoy (5.1 ypc), Jamaal Charles (5.0 ypc) and two other backs who also ran for 4.6 ypc, Matt Forte and Alfred Morris.

 

The bars represent the percentage of carries at the designated yardage found in the x label.

 

 

The data shows us precisely what we'd expected: Spiller as a disproportionately high number of weak carries (0 yds and 2 yds) but also has a disproprotinate number of long carries (his 77 was longest of this group).

 

Wow, you need to get some. Just kidding and appreciate the work.

 

Here's my problem with that and why I defend guys like Spiller and Stevie Johnson (though they are very different players because CJ has more natural talent). Of those guys you listed, Spiller played with the worst oline and worst QBs. It's not mutually exclusive. Spiller won't be a better player with a running threat like RG3? Spiller won't be better behind a very good KC oline? Spiller couldn't put up monster #s in Philly's system behind maybe the best oline in football? And he still averaged 4.6!

 

For some reason, some Bills fans like to put down their good players. Stevie Johnson wasn't Calvin Johnson but he'd be a good #2 and a great #3. IMO, Spiller is a top 5 explosive player in this league. But he plays on a group that hasn't been that good. Chris Johnson averaged 3.9 ypc playing with Fitz. Spiller averaged 6 ypc. He's a damn good player and hopefully with a better oline and a real downfield passing game, things will be opened up quite a bit.