Gregg Easterbrook on the Watkins Pick

[Bill from NYC]

Honest question - In your opinion, which single 1st round pick would make the Bills more likely to make the playoffs than Watkins?

 

Forgive me if this response appears to be avoding the question.....

 

This draft was absolutely stacked with wide receivers. The question becomes just how much better is Watkins than all the others? They traded away a 2015 first round pick that could possibly be a low one. It could also be a top 5.

 

What does this mean to me? It means that if we stood pat, we could have conceivably drafted a good OT and WR in the first two rounds, and had a much needed first rounder if Manuel is injured or busts out.

If Watkins is great, EJ gets a lot better AND this results in the Bills making the playoffs, then it will have been a good trade. But that's a tall order. Possible, but certainly not a given.

[Kelly the Dog]

 

 

Forgive me if this response appears to be avoding the question.....

 

This draft was absolutely stacked with wide receivers. The question becomes just how much better is Watkins than all the others? They traded away a 2015 first round pick that could possibly be a low one. It could also be a top 5.

 

Given the choice, do you want to drive a Ferrari or a really nice hybrid Prius?

[mannc]

_{I'm happy with the Watkins pick, but I think Mack would have been better. The Bills D-line is not going to be as good as it was last year, and a strong LB crew would have made up the difference. (Williams*2 will be fine, but Dareus is going to have another loopy year after his recent arrest, and there's no good RDE on the roster.) I think Mack is going to be as good on defense as Watkins will be on offense.}

Trading away an extra number one pick to move up to select a linebacker (from a minor football conference, no less) would have been an all-time draft gaffe. I have serious reservations about the Watkins trade, but in today's game, the value of a game-breaking WR like AJ Green or Julio Jones is second only to a franchise QB. They must be game-planned for and they open up the field for everyone else. If Watkins is that type of receiver--and the available evidence suggests that he is--then he could very well be worth the price paid. A linebacker, no matter how good, will never have that sort of impact.

[RuntheDamnBall]

Given the choice, do you want to drive a Ferrari or a really nice hybrid Prius?

Taurus for me.

[Kelly the Dog]

 

Taurus for me.

That's Chris Hogan.

[K-9]

If we simply exchanged draft positions with Cleveland and chose Watkins at four, with no other consideration, would that have been a great pick? If so, why?

 

GO BILLS!!!

[RuntheDamnBall]

That's Chris Hogan.

But I'll tell you what, the Taurus runs like a Lambo on Fridays.

[Fan in Chicago]

Forgive me if this response appears to be avoding the question.....

 

This draft was absolutely stacked with wide receivers. The question becomes just how much better is Watkins than all the others? They traded away a 2015 first round pick that could possibly be a low one. It could also be a top 5.

 

What does this mean to me? It means that if we stood pat, we could have conceivably drafted a good OT and WR in the first two rounds, and had a much needed first rounder if Manuel is injured or busts out.

If Watkins is great, EJ gets a lot better AND this results in the Bills making the playoffs, then it will have been a good trade. But that's a tall order. Possible, but certainly not a given.

 

First of all no apologies necessary.

My question was in response to your post where I thought you were implying there was a no-miss prospect in this years who we could have obtained at #9 and who would help us get to the playoffs. I now see that it was not your implication.

Long before the draft, I wanted the Bills to draft a LB, WR/TE and OL with our first three picks (in any order). I am very very happy that it is indeed how it turned out. I am also happy that we did not give up picks this year to move up for Watkins.

 

I am on board with your concern regarding potentially needing the #1 next year to use for a QB. The way I see it, we will need a QB if EJ sucks this year. In which case, we will be again drafting in the top 10. with no #1 pick, we will be in the 33-42 range of picks. Say we move up into the first round at 20-25 pick, we will need our 2nd rounder or a player. That range has produced some decent QBs in the past (not named JP LOsman). So while this is just a mind exercise, the situation is not as lost as most believe it to be.

[1B4IDie]

Forgive me if this response appears to be avoding the question.....

 

This draft was absolutely stacked with wide receivers. The question becomes just how much better is Watkins than all the others? They traded away a 2015 first round pick that could possibly be a low one. It could also be a top 5.

 

What does this mean to me? It means that if we stood pat, we could have conceivably drafted a good OT and WR in the first two rounds, and had a much needed first rounder if Manuel is injured or busts out.

If Watkins is great, EJ gets a lot better AND this results in the Bills making the playoffs, then it will have been a good trade. But that's a tall order. Possible, but certainly not a given.

If you're going bring up hypotheticals be more specific. Who could the Bills have gotten that is just as good as Watkins without giving up the 2015 1st?

 

We know the players selected. We know that the Browns said they had Watkins on their card for the 4th overall pick. So With Watkins at #4 to the Browns and Mike Evans gone at #7. Who is your pick at #9? Who is the pick at #41?

 

The Bills got two of the best players in the draft in Watkins and Kuoandjio. The ceiling on Watkins and Kuoandjio's potential is exponentially higher imo than anyother Tackle WR combo that was available. We also know the draft points breakdown. If the Bills pick in the 20s then they actually make out on the trade with Cleveland.

 

The 2015 first round pick isn't going to help the Bills make the Playoffs in 2014. Sammy Watkins and Kuandjio do have a chance to help the Bills make the playoffs in 2014.

 

OBD is trying to break this playoff drought it reflects poorly on anyone that tries to second guess a front office that is clearly making bold moves to win now. But if you're going to second guess them be more specific in your second guess. Make a statement. Its easy to sit on the sidelines and criticise without saying anything specific. "we could have conceivably drafted a good OT and WR in the first two rounds"

The fact is the Bills did but who specifically are you suggested alternatives?

[Kelly the Dog]

 

But I'll tell you what, the Taurus runs like a Lambo on Fridays.

Meh. Fridays are glorified walk-throughs. Players are done by noon.

[section122]

 

If the Bills make the playoffs, I will be happy with this trade. If not, I will view it as a folly. Either way, it strongly appears to be a desperation move for the brass to stay employed, rather than one that was in the long term interest of this franchise.

 

We shall see.

It appears though from the tenor of this post you already have made up your mind that this wasn't a good trade. It doesn't appear to be a desperation move to me at all. They saw a guy they wanted and got him. Whether they make the playoffs doesn't make the difference on whether or not it was a good trade. Sammy Watkins being a difference maker and how good he is will determine that. If he is a guy who is a stud and everything he is supposed to be then the trade will have been a good one. There are too many moving parts on a football team and season to pin the entirety of it on one player.

 

Also the trade of next years pick allowed the team to get better this year. By keeping the 2nd rounder the Bills were able to fix a glaring hole (rt) to make the team stronger for this upcoming year. It is a pick your poison here of either trading away a chance at being better this year or giving up a higher pick for next year. They chose (for once) to make strides to get better this year. One first round draft pick isn't mortgaging anything anyway.

 

In the simplest terms, the risk is that we won't get an adequate return on our investment. Our first, and fourth round picks in the next draft is our investment, which will be compounded if we have a dire need, say, at quarterback. The absolute worst case scenario is that Watkins gets hit by a train, and we get absolutely nothing for our investment. But, a more plausible scenario is that EJ plays below expectations, or gets injured again, we don't see a significant increase in our passing game, we miss out on a quality, first-round quarterback selection in the 2015 draft, and we start the 2015 season with very poor options at quarterback. That is a very real risk.

Than getting hit by a train yes of course. It is just as plausible that Manuel will have a good season and take steps forward (and even more so imo) that he will suck terribly. He didn't even suck last year. His numbers were very in line with what should be expected of a rookie qb. Add in the fact that he has been given many more tools (stud wr, o-line help, revamping of lb crew, dedicated qb coach, etc..) and I think he will progress this year.

 

As for the 2015 first round qb selection I would like to say that the last 2 years were supposed to be very strong qb drafts when viewed a year out. Neither turned out to be that way. There is no guarantee that next year will either. Right now it looks like Hundley, Winston, and Mariota are the guys. If they are as good as advertised they wouldn't be available to the Bills save for a trade up or a severe bottoming out for the team. If they aren't they may be available at the bottom of the first where the Bills can trade back up and get them if they decide to go that course.

 

It seems like most people against the trade are already convinced that Manuel isn't the guy. The team isn't.

[Rockinon]

This Watkins trade didn't really thrill me, but it is growing on me. When I saw how many new OLmen we got this year, I began to realize that the Bills are trying very hard to fix the offense. This team has been loaded with talent at skill positions for some time. Not over the top talented but one can argue that our RBs are among the best in the league. The WR position has seen infusion of young talent over the last couple of years. I know people think of our TE position as a weakness.....i don't really agree with that. No, we don't have a league leading pass catcher there. We do have a team leading receiver there.

 

I have been concerned about OL more than anything in recent years. There have been arguments on both sides of this topic, but I can only think of one way to describe our offensive line......small and weak. That just changed. The offense's woes could very well have ended with the new additions here.

 

Back to Watkins. I saw how EJ struggled to get the ball to Stevie last year. He was trying to use him as his clutch receiver a lot, but they just never really got things going. Some of it was EJ and some of it was Stevie. Either way, they just didn't seem to click. Watkins is a receiver that gets after the football. EJ just seems like he needs one good mister clutch to toss to. That, so far appears to be just what Watkins is. Yep, this trade is kind of growing on me.

[Orton's Arm]

If you're going bring up hypotheticals be more specific. Who could the Bills have gotten that is just as good as Watkins without giving up the 2015 1st?

 

We know the players selected. We know that the Browns said they had Watkins on their card for the 4th overall pick. So With Watkins at #4 to the Browns and Mike Evans gone at #7. Who is your pick at #9? Who is the pick at #41?

 

The Bills got two of the best players in the draft in Watkins and Kuoandjio. The ceiling on Watkins and Kuoandjio's potential is exponentially higher imo than anyother Tackle WR combo that was available. We also know the draft points breakdown. If the Bills pick in the 20s then they actually make out on the trade with Cleveland.

 

The 2015 first round pick isn't going to help the Bills make the Playoffs in 2014. Sammy Watkins and Kuandjio do have a chance to help the Bills make the playoffs in 2014.

 

OBD is trying to break this playoff drought it reflects poorly on anyone that tries to second guess a front office that is clearly making bold moves to win now. But if you're going to second guess them be more specific in your second guess. Make a statement. Its easy to sit on the sidelines and criticise without saying anything specific. "we could have conceivably drafted a good OT and WR in the first two rounds"

The fact is the Bills did but who specifically are you suggested alternatives?

 

> But if you're going to second guess them be more specific in your second guess. Make a statement.

 

How about this scenario. The Bills package the ninth overall pick, plus this year's third rounder, to move up for Evans. Then they take Kuandjio in the second.

 

With a plan like that, the Bills would still have a first round pick in next year's draft. That could come in very handy if Manuel doesn't work out. Or very handy even in the unlikely event he does.

 

How big will the difference be between Watkins and Evans? I don't know. Evans has better height; and that's a major point in his favor. Perhaps major enough to balance out some of the other areas in which Watkins has the edge.

 

Sometimes, you're better off with one elite player than two guys who are merely good. If the Bills put the "elite" label on Watkins, and the "merely good" label on Evans, then that might explain why they did what they did. But I'm not 100% sold on the idea those labels are accurate.

[Rocky Landing]

Than getting hit by a train yes of course. It is just as plausible that Manuel will have a good season and take steps forward (and even more so imo) that he will suck terribly. He didn't even suck last year. His numbers were very in line with what should be expected of a rookie qb. Add in the fact that he has been given many more tools (stud wr, o-line help, revamping of lb crew, dedicated qb coach, etc..) and I think he will progress this year.

 

As for the 2015 first round qb selection I would like to say that the last 2 years were supposed to be very strong qb drafts when viewed a year out. Neither turned out to be that way. There is no guarantee that next year will either. Right now it looks like Hundley, Winston, and Mariota are the guys. If they are as good as advertised they wouldn't be available to the Bills save for a trade up or a severe bottoming out for the team. If they aren't they may be available at the bottom of the first where the Bills can trade back up and get them if they decide to go that course.

 

It seems like most people against the trade are already convinced that Manuel isn't the guy. The team isn't.

I think I often come off as being an EJ hater. I'm not. My point in my doom and gloom scenario (not the one where Watkins gets hit by a train, but the one where EJ plays below expectations) isn't that I think it's going to happen, or that I am against the Watkins trade. (For the record, I didn't like it wham it happened, but I'm excited by it, and looking forward to see how it pans out.) My point is that it was a high risk/high return investment. Everyone knows what the potential return is-- and I'm certainly not ignoring that. But, I think a lot of fans with the rose colored glasses are utterly denying the level of risk.

 

I think you're right that a lot of people who were against the trade have no faith in EJ. I think others are simply unconvinced, and wary of the cost.

Edited May 15, 2014 by Rocky Landing

[Bill from NYC]

The Bills got two of the best players in the draft in Watkins and Kuoandjio. The ceiling on Watkins and Kuoandjio's potential is exponentially higher imo than anyother Tackle WR combo that was available.

 

I think that the above is part of where we differ.

 

I have been an Alabama Crimson Tide Fan for decades. I have seen virtually every game that Koundjio has ever played. He is a good player and a great kid, but he was far from the best blocker in this draft. In 2012, he was the 4th best blocker on his team. Remember, he played with a pre-injury Barrett Jones, Chance Warmack and DJ Fluker. They had already won with Jones at LT. Again, I always liked the kid and will root for him as hard as any fan here, but he isn't a star studded player. At least not yet.

 

As far as the receivers, time will tell if Watkins blows away every other receiver that was drafted after him. I hope that he does!!! That said, he will not if there are issues at QB, and I think that both of us can acknowledge that this possibility certainly does exist.

 

So no, I was not into this trade. So what? What matters is the Bills making the playoffs because they cannot go anywhere without doing so. I don't freaking care if Watkins is "GOOD" and the team is 6-10. If things go right and we can watch playoffs in January instead of posting about who is good, the trade will have been successful.

[machine gun kelly]

 

I mean usually there are few moves where you're like ouch not so sure about that but right now on paper these are strong aggressive moves that can add more Ws to the team. (Both figuratively and figuratively??)

 

People have gotten their panties in a bunch about letting Byrd walk and Flipping Stevie Johnson for Bryce Brown. But those two players were key figures in the perpetual 6-10 teams. I think Watkins, Williams, Bryce Brown, Spikes, Preston, and Kuoandjio can get to 6-10 just fine and maybe even flip that to 10-6 if everything gels.

 

I can't wait for September for a change.

 

I'm with you. We keep talking about developing a talented team and we need more bodies, but now we need special players to flip the switch. If you think about it, between the trades and draft we gained 9 players, and gave up two next year. We also picked up Graham, Spikes, Williams ( the G) and Rivers. Now I don't understand the Rivers and Williams lineman pick up, but overall we gained some talent. Good CB can play FS so if Graham is not a drop off from Byrd, and we gained these middle linebackers, we may have improved even more than before.

 

We have to hope two of the three OL workout to be starters. I believe watching Watkins he will be a stud. I want to see a 10-6 record and watch the pundits all change their minds.

 

I don't want the new owner to change leadership. These guys need more time to build the team. The constant changing is our biggest problem outside of the poor choices of course,

[The Jokeman]

No. They said he was incredibly fast but unlikely to be a workhorse. Weak between the tackles. Called a faster Reggie Bush most frequently.

 

I feel like scouting on CJ hit the nail on the head.

 

Yet some scouting reports also called CJ the next Marshall Faulk. That said I said in my final mock prior to the draft that the two guys we should have been choosing between was Spiller and Dez Bryant. At that time I sided with Dez since Stevie was still an unknown and we had Lynch and Jackson in the fold. Sadly we went Spiller, traded Lynch and the rest is history.

[1B4IDie]

I think that the above is part of where we differ.

 

I have been an Alabama Crimson Tide Fan for decades. I have seen virtually every game that Koundjio has ever played. He is a good player and a great kid, but he was far from the best blocker in this draft. In 2012, he was the 4th best blocker on his team. Remember, he played with a pre-injury Barrett Jones, Chance Warmack and DJ Fluker. They had already won with Jones at LT. Again, I always liked the kid and will root for him as hard as any fan here, but he isn't a star studded player. At least not yet.

 

As far as the receivers, time will tell if Watkins blows away every other receiver that was drafted after him. I hope that he does!!! That said, he will not if there are issues at QB, and I think that both of us can acknowledge that this possibility certainly does exist.

 

So no, I was not into this trade. So what? What matters is the Bills making the playoffs because they cannot go anywhere without doing so. I don't freaking care if Watkins is "GOOD" and the team is 6-10. If things go right and we can watch playoffs in January instead of posting about who is good, the trade will have been successful.

And that is the bottom. If the Bills make the playoffs and Watkins is on IR all season. (Knock on wood) the trade still works out Trade Value wise.

 

One Bills Drive is all in for 2014. I don't know the last time I have ever seen that. I mean seriously, I can't remember when I knew without a shadow of a doubt that the front office was trying to win now and not "Build for the future".

 

Now its up to Morrone to get the players prepared for 2014.

 

It could blow up in their face but atleast they're trying to do something different to win now.

 

Everyone knows that EJ is the Grenade Pin. Most, me included, don't think he can do it but that doesn't mean I'm going to **** on him for trying.

 

If EJ is not the man then Whaley will be shown the door by new ownership (which clearly is a mistake imo)

 

The good news though is with Watkins, Williams, Woods, CJ, and Bryce Brown and a line of Cordy Glenn, Kouandjio, Wood most Free Agent QBs would love to join the team in 2015. If Bradford gets tossed aside, or Kirk Cousins gets free they may see that the Bills are built to win now. They just need a QB. That to me is the worst case scenario in 2015. Winston is going #1 overall no matter how many crab cakes he steals and Marriato isn't guaranteed to be any better than EJ. This team couldn't get the 1st overall pick if it tried. So I don't really believe the 2015 1st would have put the Bills in a position to draft a QB anyway.

 

Just win baby.

Edited May 15, 2014 by Why So Serious?

[jumbalaya]

another way to look at 2015 draft picks...with all of the underclassmen moving into the 2014 draft the 2015 pool is pretty diluted. A mid round one pick in 2015 might really only translate into a round 2 talent in a normal year; the 2015 round 4 pick might only be a round 5 talent in a normal year. Now if we go 3-13 that's a whole new story. But I think we will make it to 8-8 which is a big leap.

[Kelly the Dog]

The fact is, no matter who you are and what you think of the trade, if in three years* Sammy Watkins is a consensus elite player in this league, you're going to think of this as a pretty good if not great trade. And if he is just a pretty good or average WR in this league, you're going to think it was a pretty bad or terrible trade. There isn't much wiggle room.

 

*I say three years, although it may happen sooner than that. He's likely not going to be "elite" his rookie season, but we should see a lot of signs this year, very good play, and approaching if not gaining elite status by next year. People will surely argue over that, too, but that's why there are message boards and why we come here.