Gregg Easterbrook on the Watkins Pick

[frogger]

I feeling like when Watkins catches the ball, he turns almost into a running back, lowering his shoulder on a DB.

[MDH]

They traded a 5th rounder this year for a 7th rounder this year and a 5 rounder next year. That doesn't sound like something one would do if they were only concerned about this year.

 

Then again, I hated this trade but that's a different discussion.

[Kelly the Dog]

They traded a 5th rounder this year for a 7th rounder this year and a 5 rounder next year. That doesn't sound like something one would do if they were only concerned about this year.

 

Then again, I hated this trade but that's a different discussion.

The first part is a really good point.

 

The second part is a problem; with you.

[Sherrif John Brown]

Please just watch... he has speed, power & hands! he will be a star. Just watch the video Watch his hands & Power. we all know he is fast. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Kjkh3yV8YA

 

Watch the run at the 2:30 mark and tell me you're not excited! Go Bills..

[Bill from NYC]

 

I don't really believe that at all.

 

No? Didn't you (not me) once post that you thought the chances of EJ being a franchise qb were well less than 50%? I do NOT want to misquote you. Please notice that the comment was in question form. Will you like this trade if he tanks?

 

Coaches and GMs on the Bills have a horrible track record of getting equal or better jobs when the leave Buffalo. Right? Wade and Pettine did well. A majority of the rest are out of the game entirely.

 

The chances of Marrone and Brandon (the Syracuse connection) getting other jobs at an equal level are slim to none. It's tougher to predict wrt Whaley, but I have a hard time picturing teams beating down his door to hire him as their GM.

So yes, it really does appear that this was a move to salvage their shaky careers.

 

If the Bills make the playoffs, I will be happy with this trade. If not, I will view it as a folly. Either way, it strongly appears to be a desperation move for the brass to stay employed, rather than one that was in the long term interest of this franchise.

 

We shall see.

 

 

[PromoTheRobot]

I don't buy that the threat of being fired motivated this draft. They could be fired either way with a new owner. Why risk your career making stupid moves? New owner or not, I think Whaley would make the same deals.

[3rdand12]

High risk/high reward.

no risk

through the roof reward

[3rdand12]

That, unfortunately, is one of the elements of the trade-up that makes it a high risk.

This is true from the fans and pundits view point .

Well said in that case

 

Mortgage the future to win now by engaging in modest activity in FA and acquiring a 20 year old rookie WR. Something doesn't add up there.

 

If they had traded future draft picks for some veteran WR maybe I could see it, but Watkins is clearly a player acquired with the next 12 years in mind. He's a good 5-7 years away from his physical prime.

Lets hope so LoL.

High ceiling baby !

[texasabres]

High risk/high reward.

 

From management's perspective, I don't see the risk. If you lose next year, everyone is fired by the new owner. If you win, new owner will want to sell tickets and offset the lack of a 1st round pick with $$$$ in free agency. The risk is on the fans' side. If he sucks, we have nothing to talk about leading up to the draft and a long offseason. It also likely means EJ sucked and we don't have a way to replace him (not even $$$$ buys a top flight QB).

[Rocky Landing]

From management's perspective, I don't see the risk. If you lose next year, everyone is fired by the new owner. If you win, new owner will want to sell tickets and offset the lack of a 1st round pick with $$$$ in free agency. The risk is on the fans' side. If he sucks, we have nothing to talk about leading up to the draft and a long offseason. It also likely means EJ sucked and we don't have a way to replace him (not even $$$$ buys a top flight QB).

In the simplest terms, the risk is that we won't get an adequate return on our investment. Our first, and fourth round picks in the next draft is our investment, which will be compounded if we have a dire need, say, at quarterback. The absolute worst case scenario is that Watkins gets hit by a train, and we get absolutely nothing for our investment. But, a more plausible scenario is that EJ plays below expectations, or gets injured again, we don't see a significant increase in our passing game, we miss out on a quality, first-round quarterback selection in the 2015 draft, and we start the 2015 season with very poor options at quarterback. That is a very real risk.

[Lurker]

I don't buy that the threat of being fired motivated this draft. They could be fired either way with a new owner. Why risk your career making stupid moves? New owner or not, I think Whaley would make the same deals.

I'd go so far to say that Whaley felt empowered (by Russ) to go for the long ball in this draft, rather than dink'n and dunk'n to cover his backside.

 

I really do think that Brandon is operating in more than 'employee' mode here. He's the surrogate for the trust that will have the final say on what kind of owner takes up the ball from Ralph...

 

That is a very real risk.

This team has been risk adverse since Polian. Sometimes you need to roll the dice and put the kids' new shoe money on the table.

 

It's a risky game, with short careers and a need for luck (which you can work hard to shape) in every season. Let's win the Super Bowl, not the Actuarial Bowl...

[Rocky Landing]

 

 

 

This team has been risk adverse since Polian. Sometimes you need to roll the dice and put the kids' new shoe money on the table.

 

It's a risky game, with short careers and a need for luck (which you can work hard to shape) in every season. Let's win the Super Bowl, not the Actuarial Bowl...

I agree with this. I wasn't at all happy with the trade when it went down, but it's exciting as hell. ALL IN!

[Kelly the Dog]

No? Didn't you (not me) once post that you thought the chances of EJ being a franchise qb were well less than 50%? I do NOT want to misquote you. Please notice that the comment was in question form. Will you like this trade if he tanks?

 

Coaches and GMs on the Bills have a horrible track record of getting equal or better jobs when the leave Buffalo. Right? Wade and Pettine did well. A majority of the rest are out of the game entirely.

 

The chances of Marrone and Brandon (the Syracuse connection) getting other jobs at an equal level are slim to none. It's tougher to predict wrt Whaley, but I have a hard time picturing teams beating down his door to hire him as their GM.

So yes, it really does appear that this was a move to salvage their shaky careers.

 

If the Bills make the playoffs, I will be happy with this trade. If not, I will view it as a folly. Either way, it strongly appears to be a desperation move for the brass to stay employed, rather than one that was in the long term interest of this franchise.

 

We shall see.

i like EJ. Have no idea if he will be a franchise QB or not. He has a decent shot at it. I don't ever recall saying he had a less than 50-50 shot though. 50-50 maybe because any first round QB is about 50-50. I liked a lot of what I saw last year, and didn't like a good portion, too. But it all comes with context. Half a training camp, injured three times, first year coach, first year OC with no QB coach, his veteran starter hurt and gone before he started, both RBs hurt, three WRs hurt, a few OL hurt. No one could have played well under all of those circumstances.

 

We'll see what he does this year. He has the right attitude. I'm cautiously optimistic.

 

But the trade is independent of EJ even though they did it partly to get him some more weapons. If EJ tanks, he is gone and there will likely be a new starter. But Watkins will be here for 5-10 years regardless of who the QB is. The team has one star, IMO, and that is Mario Williams. They have a couple who could be stars but the next one is very likely to be Sammy Watkins.

 

I don't at all think that they made the trade to save their jobs. If that were the case, Whaley would be sabotaging his own career, which is a very bright one. Another poster today mentioned that trading a 5th rounder for a 7th and next years 5th does NOT sound like someone only concerned about this year, especially with a lot of good players available in the 5th round this year.

 

They were not going to trade for Mack, or Matthews or Robinson. It was only for a star player, Clowney or Watkins. That was clear in the draft video. That also does not sound like someone only concerned for their job (they would have done it for other guys, too, like Mack.)

 

I think Whaley has done a terrific job in the time he has been here and in charge. His track record on trades, the ones we know of, has been stellar. Lets see how the next 4-5 play out. I'm betting he's going to look pretty good.

Edited May 14, 2014 by Kelly the Dog

[Orton's Arm]

No? Didn't you (not me) once post that you thought the chances of EJ being a franchise qb were well less than 50%? I do NOT want to misquote you. Please notice that the comment was in question form. Will you like this trade if he tanks?

 

Coaches and GMs on the Bills have a horrible track record of getting equal or better jobs when the leave Buffalo. Right? Wade and Pettine did well. A majority of the rest are out of the game entirely.

 

The chances of Marrone and Brandon (the Syracuse connection) getting other jobs at an equal level are slim to none. It's tougher to predict wrt Whaley, but I have a hard time picturing teams beating down his door to hire him as their GM.

So yes, it really does appear that this was a move to salvage their shaky careers.

 

If the Bills make the playoffs, I will be happy with this trade. If not, I will view it as a folly. Either way, it strongly appears to be a desperation move for the brass to stay employed, rather than one that was in the long term interest of this franchise.

 

We shall see.

 

> Will you like this trade if [Manuel] tanks?

 

I hate to give a weasel answer to such a good question. But I will--it depends.

 

Any time you have an elite talent at WR, you want to pair him with a very good or great quarterback. A mediocre QB means the WR's talent is largely being wasted. Those who are pessimistic about Manuel--as I am--probably expect the first few years of Watkins' career to be wasted in this way.

 

How quickly can Watkins be paired with a real QB? I don't know. If we're lucky, Whaley will draft a Pro Bowl QB two years from now. That would solve a lot of problems. It would also make the Watkins trade look like a brilliant move. The combination of a Pro Bowl QB and an elite WR can be devastating; especially if your team also has a real offensive line.

 

But let's say the Bills experience mediocre QB play for the next ten years. In a scenario like that, the Watkins trade becomes much harder to justify. Both because the Watkins draft picks could have been used on a QB. And because an elite WR without a real QB isn't going to reach his full potential.

[Chandler#81]

I don't buy that at all, either. Is losing 1 first round pick really leaving a future GM or coach a mess? It is not as though the roster doesn't have plenty of talent to work with. I just think those critiquing this move have an exaggerated sense of how much value a first round pick automatically has. Its' the player, not the pick.

 

I would bet, knowing what they know now, there are more than a few GM's who would trade their 2013 first round pick for, say, Kiko Alonso. There is "first round talent" to be found throughout the draft, just as there is 2nd-7th talent drafted in the first round every year. If they believe in Watson as much as it appears (and the Bills aren't the only ones who seem to view him as a generational type talent) then a first round and a 4th round pick, IMO, is a pretty modest price to pay.

Yeah, but.. If there's any truth/if it turns out that new ownership wants to go in a different direction, regardless of this years' outcome, I fear it would be many years before we're relevant. In two short years, Whaley & Co. have designed this team in a very specific way -with monster brawlers on the OL to feature a predominately run offense and a versatile aggressive defense. if anybody comes in here and clean sweeps because they want a pass-happy offense and a 3-4 defense, the current roster would have to be gutted. Ergo, I give no value to those who claim it's 'win or die and damn the future!' I don't know how we'll measure up this year but I really like our chances with this roster. If there's any substantial upgrade in Manuel's performance, we're heading for the playoffs. -especially so if there's added teams to the tournament this year, which seems likely.

[BillsVet]

Right. Like Terry Pegula.

 

The point is, since it's very likely going to be someone local, there is a decent to good chance that he already likes Whaley a helluva lot. And the conventional wisdom or the history says element of this guy is going to want to clean house or hire his own guys is not necessarily the case at all.

 

Most fans and people paying close attention to the team do like him a lot. You may not, or you may have a legitimate "show me the baby" outlook toward him -- and surely, whether you like him or not, if this team doesn't take a major step up this season it doesn't matter if you like him or not, he is likely going to be gone when a new owner comes in. But it does matter that the new guy is close already (unless, of course, it is not a local and that doesn't seem likely at this point).

 

Pegula is using the exception to prove the rule. Most new owners want their guys running the team and even Pegula hired Ted Black upon taking over and Larry Quinn left.

 

Whaley is an improvement over Nix, who wasn't developing a plan to building a team. There's no doubt about that. I simply put a lot of stock into track record and right now he doesn't have a

[Steve O]

Great analysis. Watkins' play will soon make every talking head that chastized the Bills for taking him eat their words.

Hope you're right and I'm wrong. Will gladly change my mind on the pick/trade if it works out like the Bennett trade, which I was as upset about as this trade.

[Sisyphean Bills]

Yeah, but.. If there's any truth/if it turns out that new ownership wants to go in a different direction, regardless of this years' outcome, I fear it would be many years before we're relevant. In two short years, Whaley & Co. have designed this team in a very specific way -with monster brawlers on the OL to feature a predominately run offense and a versatile aggressive defense. if anybody comes in here and clean sweeps because they want a pass-happy offense and a 3-4 defense, the current roster would have to be gutted. Ergo, I give no value to those who claim it's 'win or die and damn the future!' I don't know how we'll measure up this year but I really like our chances with this roster. If there's any substantial upgrade in Manuel's performance, we're heading for the playoffs. -especially so if there's added teams to the tournament this year, which seems likely.

 

The poisoning the water hole idea isn't completely baseless, though. New ownership is unlikely to invest a cool $1B on this franchise and have zero ideas. They will talk to people outside the Bills organization. And, mortgaged drafts may cool the heels of an outsider just a little as to the attractiveness of the job. On the other hand, it's entirely possible they could be talked around the problem of a couple missing picks too.

[Kelly the Dog]

If EJ fails, it's now going to be much, much easier to convince a FA veteran QB to come here with Sammy Watkins, the rest of the receiving corps, as well as a few monsters protecting him up front.

[eball]

i like EJ. Have no idea if he will be a franchise QB or not. He has a decent shot at it. I don't ever recall saying he had a less than 50-50 shot though. 50-50 maybe because any first round QB is about 50-50. I liked a lot of what I saw last year, and didn't like a good portion, too. But it all comes with context. Half a training camp, injured three times, first year coach, first year OC with no QB coach, his veteran starter hurt and gone before he started, both RBs hurt, three WRs hurt, a few OL hurt. No one could have played well under all of those circumstances.

 

We'll see what he does this year. He has the right attitude. I'm cautiously optimistic.

 

Given all of that, I'm curious as to which rookie QBs anyone thinks *would* succeed. It's really unbelievable, seeing it all put together in one sentence. Talk about a virtually impossible situation.