Cost of Watkins = Typical Media Bias against Buffalo

[bbb]

What if he puts up 1300 yards and we make the playoffs?

 

That likely would mean EJ plays well, and I will VERY gladly eat crow. I so hope it works.

[Koufax]

What if he puts up 1300 yards and we make the playoffs?

 

Who was the last rookie WR to put up 1300 yards? Sammy's production in 2014 matters a lot less than his development into a real superstar AND the team doing well in 2014. I think both of those things could realistically happen.

 

Otherwise, it was a reckless move made by a front office gasping for straws facing job insecurity amindst an uncertain ownership situation.

 

Let me complete the thought. If the season goes South (like most seasons have) or if EJ gets injured and we see Thad Lewis or Jeff Tuel in there, that first round pick could become a top 10 selection making it an atrocious move by our (former) GM.

 

Reckless seems a little bold and excessive, but it certainly has some risk and I don't love the move.

 

We improve this year very clearly (got a player not available at #9 and gave up no additional 2014 picks) and got a guy who seems to have star potential and was not a reach at the pick where he was selected. I prefered Mack at #4, but don't follow it closely enough to think I'm right about that.

 

The are several ways this turns out to be a bad deal:

 

1) if one of the players we were realistically targeting at #9 (Ebron, Beckham, Martin) proves to be a real star, and Watkins isn't better or enough better to justify paying to move up.

 

2) if one of the players we were might have realistically considered at #4 (Mack) proves to be significantly better in the NFL than Watkins.

 

3) 2014 goes horribly and instead of giving up the #18 or #23 pick to move up like we hope, we give up another top 10 pick. This is the one you mention.

 

#1 seems to be one bbb's worry, but I don't see it. I liked players we could have had at #9, but am still bullish on Watkin's future. Anything can happen, but this isn't the real risk.

 

#2 could go either way, and I like Mack, but I don't think your draft day expectations are for anybody available at #4 to be a clearly better football player over the next 5-8 years.

 

So it all comes down to #3, what you expect of the 2014 season, what we expect of EJ, etc. If EJ were to prove to be a bust, we won't be drafting his replacement in 2015, but I think that would be a premature evaluation anyway and I am fine with that. But if 2014 is a disaster and that pick is worth a lot, we get caught having paid more than we thought at the time of the trade, and it will mean less total talent on our roster over the next five years than if we hadn't made the trade.

 

If that pick is in the 20s, I think everyone will be happy with the trade (because of what picking in the 20s means), and if it is a top 10 pick, everybody will hate it because of what that means. In the teens is where there will be more room to evaluate and disagree.

[Rob's House]

 

 

That likely would mean EJ plays well, and I will VERY gladly eat crow. I so hope it works.

 

You really wouldn't have to eat crow. It would certainly take the sting out of the price, but it wouldn't necessarily mean your strategy wouldn't have been preferable. If Beckham, Evans, or Enron puts up similar numbers it could still throw the decision into question.

 

Personally, I'm ok with the move, but I don't love it.

[bbb]

Who was the last rookie WR to put up 1300 yards? Sammy's production in 2014 matters a lot less than his development into a real superstar AND the team doing well in 2014. I think both of those things could realistically happen.

 

 

 

Reckless seems a little bold and excessive, but it certainly has some risk and I don't love the move.

 

We improve this year very clearly (got a player not available at #9 and gave up no additional 2014 picks) and got a guy who seems to have star potential and was not a reach at the pick where he was selected. I prefered Mack at #4, but don't follow it closely enough to think I'm right about that.

 

The are several ways this turns out to be a bad deal:

 

1) if one of the players we were realistically targeting at #9 (Ebron, Beckham, Martin) proves to be a real star, and Watkins isn't better or enough better to justify paying to move up.

 

2) if one of the players we were might have realistically considered at #4 (Mack) proves to be significantly better in the NFL than Watkins.

 

3) 2014 goes horribly and instead of giving up the #18 or #23 pick to move up like we hope, we give up another top 10 pick. This is the one you mention.

 

#1 seems to be one bbb's worry, but I don't see it. I liked players we could have had at #9, but am still bullish on Watkin's future. Anything can happen, but this isn't the real risk.

 

#2 could go either way, and I like Mack, but I don't think your draft day expectations are for anybody available at #4 to be a clearly better football player over the next 5-8 years.

 

So it all comes down to #3, what you expect of the 2014 season, what we expect of EJ, etc. If EJ were to prove to be a bust, we won't be drafting his replacement in 2015, but I think that would be a premature evaluation anyway and I am fine with that. But if 2014 is a disaster and that pick is worth a lot, we get caught having paid more than we thought at the time of the trade, and it will mean less total talent on our roster over the next five years than if we hadn't made the trade.

 

If that pick is in the 20s, I think everyone will be happy with the trade (because of what picking in the 20s means), and if it is a top 10 pick, everybody will hate it because of what that means. In the teens is where there will be more room to evaluate and disagree.

 

That is not my worry. That might happen, but it wouldn't bother me as much as the whole EJ thing. If we were set at QB, I would love this move.

 

You really wouldn't have to eat crow. It would certainly take the sting out of the price, but it wouldn't necessarily mean your strategy wouldn't have been preferable. If Beckham, Evans, or Enron puts up similar numbers it could still throw the decision into question.

 

Personally, I'm ok with the move, but I don't love it.

 

That's true............But, either way, I don't want my fears to come true. I want EJ to be the guy I thought he would be a year ago, but that he hasn't proved to be yet.

[Dawgg]

That is not my worry. That might happen, but it wouldn't bother me as much as the whole EJ thing. If we were set at QB, I would love this move.

 

 

 

That's true............But, either way, I don't want my fears to come true. I want EJ to be the guy I thought he would be a year ago, but that he hasn't proved to be yet.

 

The bolded part above reflects exactly how I feel. When the Falcons made the trade up for Julio Jones, they had a franchise QB in place. When Whaley made this trade, they have a QB they really like, but the jury is still out. They simply should/could have taken Ebron and called it a day. Ebron would help EJ develop and next year's first round pick is still in the bank account should EJ have a setback of some kind. With an uncertain QB situation, the risk-reward simply doesn't favor this trade. I hope with all my might that this trade turns out well but I stand by my assertion that this was not a good risk to take given where the team is today.

[CodeMonkey]

The bolded part above reflects exactly how I feel. When the Falcons made the trade up for Julio Jones, they had a franchise QB in place. When Whaley made this trade, they have a QB they really like, but the jury is still out.

That's exactly the difference that a lot of people don't quite grasp and what makes this move ballsy, and very risky. If Manuel turns it around this season and becomes a viable NFL QB then Whaley comes off as a genius. If not, he is a moron. Let's hope for genius.

[Kelly the Dog]

That's exactly the difference that a lot of people don't quite grasp and what makes this move ballsy, and very risky. If Manuel turns it around this season and becomes a viable NFL QB then Whaley comes off as a genius. If not, he is a moron. Let's hope for genius.

How exactly is he a moron if EJ is not a viable QB, but Watkins is great, and then the Bills trade for or sign a veteran "viable QB" in FA (which is more likely because of Watkins being there?

[CodeMonkey]

How exactly is he a moron if EJ is not a viable QB, but Watkins is great, and then the Bills trade for or sign a veteran "viable QB" in FA (which is more likely because of Watkins being there?

Viable QBs do not grow on trees (unfortunately or we would not be having this conversation). By giving up next years 1st and 4th round picks he greatly reduces his chances of trading for one, even if one did come on the market. That means the Bills more than likely would have to get one in FA, which is even more rare. Or wait for 2016 and try again.

 

Whaley gambled on his read of Manuel. We should see if his gamble paid off this season.

Edited May 20, 2014 by CodeMonkey

[JESSEFEFFER]

Alex Smith, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, maybe Carson Palmer. Teams move on from veteran QBs with nice NFL resumes all the time. Maybe it's injury, or salary cap numbers, or a new GM wanting to start over. Before there was only the draft in terms of building a roster. Now, due to the salary cap and free agency, there are other options.

[Dawgg]

How exactly is he a moron if EJ is not a viable QB, but Watkins is great, and then the Bills trade for or sign a veteran "viable QB" in FA (which is more likely because of Watkins being there?

You're essentially taking Watkins being great as a given. There's risk inherent in any draft pick, even the very best ones. CJ Spiller was supposed to be a rookie of the year Adrian Peterson type talent. Hasn't quite materialize (yet).

 

In trading up for Watkins, Whaley is banking on a) Watkins being great b) EJ establishing himself as a franchise QB and c) The Bills 2014 record being such that the 1st rounder given up is in the latter half of the round.

 

Not a good risk to take given where the franchise is. When Dimitroff pulled off that trade for the Flacons, I had no problem with it because the franchise QB had been established. If I'm a Browns fan, I love this trade.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

You're essentially taking Watkins being great as a given. There's risk inherent in any draft pick, even the very best ones. CJ Spiller was supposed to be a rookie of the year Adrian Peterson type talent. Hasn't quite materialize (yet).

 

In trading up for Watkins, Whaley is banking on a) Watkins being great b) EJ establishing himself as a franchise QB and c) The Bills 2014 record being such that the 1st rounder given up is in the latter half of the round.

 

Not a good risk to take given where the franchise is. When Dimitroff pulled off that trade for the Flacons, I had no problem with it because the franchise QB had been established. If I'm a Browns fan, I love this trade.

I think what Kelly is saying is that B) is irrelevant. The Bills looked at the player as an elite talent and was the highest ranked player for them in the last 2 years. They went out and got him regardless of what becomes of EJ. If they decide they need a QB the Bills will be looking to the FA market or a trade. Bradford or Alex Smith would probably be the most likely options.

 

The point being they did not think that they could pass on the player because the guy that throws him the ball may not be good enough. You don't pass up on an elite pass rusher because you have suspect CBs. You don't pass up on elite corners because your pass rush is weak. You take every opportunity to upgrade your talent especially if you like the player as much as they like Watkins.

[CodeMonkey]

I think what Kelly is saying is that B) is irrelevant. The Bills looked at the player as an elite talent and was the highest ranked player for them in the last 2 years. They went out and got him regardless of what becomes of EJ. If they decide they need a QB the Bills will be looking to the FA market or a trade. Bradford or Alex Smith would probably be the most likely options.

 

The point being they did not think that they could pass on the player because the guy that throws him the ball may not be good enough. You don't pass up on an elite pass rusher because you have suspect CBs. You don't pass up on elite corners because your pass rush is weak. You take every opportunity to upgrade your talent especially if you like the player as much as they like Watkins.

Experience also shows that because more picks will miss than hit, you don't spend more than 1 pick on a player unless your are very VERY sure the player will be elite and in a position of great impact. It all depends upon your philosophy I guess. Mine is that Whaley made a high risk for high reward move and I hope he was right!

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Experience also shows that because more picks will miss than hit, you don't spend more than 1 pick on a player unless your are very VERY sure the player will be elite and in a position of great impact. It all depends upon your philosophy I guess. Mine is that Whaley made a high risk for high reward move and I hope he was right!

I agree that there is always risk but Watkins is probably as safe a prospect as there has been in years (he and Jake Mathews). Obviously he has a high ceiling but it is his floor that seperates him from most prospects. He may never be a HOF player but I think that the absolute worst case scenario would be Stevie Johnson's career. His ceiling is Fitzgerald (and Watkins is more athletic).

[Steve in Carolina]

I love the Sammy pic, I however wonder if we didn't get duped on the compensation for the pick. I saw reports yesterday that Atlanta was going to give a 3rd round pick to Jacksonville to move from 6 to 3, but Jacksonville, who was ready to make the deal, bailed in fear that someone else would reach up and grab Bortles before they got a chance.

You can say Watkins was the best player in the draft, but we still took him at 4 and gave up WAY more than Atlanta was giving up to move above that.

 

I think Whaley made a desperate move and got taken a bit. Now I just hope to hell Sammy is so good that next year we don't care.

LINK

[GA BILLS FAN]

I agree that there is always risk but Watkins is probably as safe a prospect as there has been in years (he and Jake Mathews). Obviously he has a high ceiling but it is his floor that seperates him from most prospects. He may never be a HOF player but I think that the absolute worst case scenario would be Stevie Johnson's career. His ceiling is Fitzgerald (and Watkins is more athletic).

I agree with Code Monkey's logic. I think the issue all of us on the anti-trade side of this argument, is as follows: If EJ isn't the franchise QB, your next shot at an elite 1st round QB is 2016. Like it or not, the jury is out on EJ and his risk of failure is pretty high. That, in and of itself makes the trade high risk. The other part of the trade I struggle with is whether the delta between Watkins and the player that would have been available at 9 was worth the price of a 2015 1st by itself (not factoring in EJ's performance). So, is Sammy that much better than Ebron, Beckham, Lewan or Mosley ? Those are 2 BIG IF's and questions that are very rational. Lastly, I personally think you make this type of high risk move when you feel you are a player away at a particular position to compete for a Super Bowl. All rational though says the Bills are not at that point, yet. Now, the FO might think they are, but OBJECTIVE analysis says otherwise. While every one likes to pooh-pooh national media, I am hard pressed to find anyone outside the Bills fan base who is on board. NOW, in the end, the Bills FO might be right, EJ is the guy and Sammy is a star and this was indeed the right time to "roll the dice". I hope that's true, but a betting man would not take that wager, so why did Russ and the Doug's ?

[Kirby Jackson]

 

I agree with Code Monkey's logic. I think the issue all of us on the anti-trade side of this argument, is as follows: If EJ isn't the franchise QB, your next shot at an elite 1st round QB is 2016. Like it or not, the jury is out on EJ and his risk of failure is pretty high. That, in and of itself makes the trade high risk. The other part of the trade I struggle with is whether the delta between Watkins and the player that would have been available at 9 was worth the price of a 2015 1st by itself (not factoring in EJ's performance). So, is Sammy that much better than Ebron, Beckham, Lewan or Mosley ? Those are 2 BIG IF's and questions that are very rational. Lastly, I personally think you make this type of high risk move when you feel you are a player away at a particular position to compete for a Super Bowl. All rational though says the Bills are not at that point, yet. Now, the FO might think they are, but OBJECTIVE analysis says otherwise. While every one likes to pooh-pooh national media, I am hard pressed to find anyone outside the Bills fan base who is on board. NOW, in the end, the Bills FO might be right, EJ is the guy and Sammy is a star and this was indeed the right time to "roll the dice". I hope that's true, but a betting man would not take that wager, so why did Russ and the Doug's ?

I am skeptical (and always have been on EJ). I do not think tht you can let his question marks preclude you from acquiring this type of talent. I had heard leading up to the draft how much the Bills wanted him. If EJ isn't the answer they will have options. This team is built to win in the next few years so they won't want to be bringing another young guy along. They will get someone for 4-5 years (maybe longer if Bradford).

[GA BILLS FAN]

I am skeptical (and always have been on EJ). I do not think tht you can let his question marks preclude you from acquiring this type of talent. I had heard leading up to the draft how much the Bills wanted him. If EJ isn't the answer they will have options. This team is built to win in the next few years so they won't want to be bringing another young guy along. They will get someone for 4-5 years (maybe longer if Bradford).

But, let's say for sake of argument that EJ continues to struggle like he did last year --- and Bills fail to make playoffs, and are 6-10 or 7-9 --- then what ? There is no chance for a franchise QB in 2015 --- I'm not saying you draft from the position of fear that EJ ISN'T the guy --- but, I wouldn't part with that #1 for any player in the 2014 draft at this stage of the team's rebuild --- instead, sit at 9, and let draft come to you --- or move up a couple of spots for the cost of a 2nd or 3rd in 2015

[Kirby Jackson]

But, let's say for sake of argument that EJ continues to struggle like he did last year --- and Bills fail to make playoffs, and are 6-10 or 7-9 --- then what ? There is no chance for a franchise QB in 2015 --- I'm not saying you draft from the position of fear that EJ ISN'T the guy --- but, I wouldn't part with that #1 for any player in the 2014 draft at this stage of the team's rebuild --- instead, sit at 9, and let draft come to you --- or move up a couple of spots for the cost of a 2nd or 3rd in 2015

I am saying that the franchise QB will be a current starter in the league, not a draft pick.

[Wayne Cubed]

But, let's say for sake of argument that EJ continues to struggle like he did last year --- and Bills fail to make playoffs, and are 6-10 or 7-9 --- then what ? There is no chance for a franchise QB in 2015 --- I'm not saying you draft from the position of fear that EJ ISN'T the guy --- but, I wouldn't part with that #1 for any player in the 2014 draft at this stage of the team's rebuild --- instead, sit at 9, and let draft come to you --- or move up a couple of spots for the cost of a 2nd or 3rd in 2015

 

If the Bills finish at 6-10 or 7-9, even if they had their pick in 2015, they wouldn't be in a position to draft a "franchise QB." If this past year is any indication it wouldn't put them anywhere nearer to the top of the draft. If there is a "franchise guy" or 2, they would likely go 1,2. Sorry, but the Bills wouldn't be able to move that high. First the team picking 1 or 2 would probably want that QB for themselves. Second, if that team didn't want a QB and was willing to trade, I'm sure there would be teams closer to 1, 2 looking for a QB that could offer a better trade, i.e. meaning team picking at 1 could move to 3 or 4, let's say, instead of 9.

[GA BILLS FAN]

I am saying that the franchise QB will be a current starter in the league, not a draft pick.

Who ? . . . Romo by trade ? Pretty slim pickings on 2015 UFA's http://overthecap.com/freeagents.php?Position=QB&Year=2015 --- in my world, franchise QB is the 1st, 2nd and 3rd things on the priority list to build winner --- get one, and the rest is easy to compete for playoffs---- build a decent team around one and you have SB contender --- --- it's an easy recipe to win, but VERY difficult to do ---