Rocky Landing Posted May 14, 2014 Posted May 14, 2014 (edited) This is the perfect description of a front office that operates out of fear. You simply can't do that. Ever. You either have faith in your process and belief in the players you select and the price you sometimes pay to select them, or you don't. All this gnashing of teeth over a future pick for a future player that doesn't even exist yet, is a waste of time. It simply can't be quantified until all the facts are in. GO BILLS!!! That's really not true. We can easily place a value on future picks. (And the FO better be doing just that!) And, we can certainly discus how our current situation, and other likely scenarios will affect the value of our future picks. It's an interesting discussion. This thread is all about the perceived value of our trade-up for Watkins. How can we discus that trade, if we don't discus the potential value of what we invested? Edited May 14, 2014 by Rocky Landing
John from Riverside Posted May 14, 2014 Posted May 14, 2014 If EJ doesnt pan out If EJ doesnt pan out If EJ doesnt pan out This is a horse that has been beaten to death....sent to the glue factory.....put back together again in a paper machey horse....then set on fire Why is it so hard to understand that this is the QB that this leadership group has hooked their cart to.....and that he probably not only gets this year but THE FOLLOWING YEAR as well due to the injury plagued shortened first year season....... Kevin Kolb was brought in to be the transition guy......when he got hurt EJ got thrown into the fire earlier then they anticipated.....but now we are past that first stage and now they are just looking for EJ to show progression. Look at the OL Look at the recievers Look at the running game THey have effectively built this team up AROUND the young quarterback
Buftex Posted May 14, 2014 Posted May 14, 2014 (edited) I still don't like the cost of the trade. Is Watkins that much better than Beckham? ...who we could have gotten at 9. I have read numerous "experts" on Watkins, and nearly every one seems to feel that Watkins was far and away the best receiver in this years draft, many claim he is the best of the last 5 drafts...and some felt like he was the best player in this draft, regardless of position. One guy (Mel Kiper Jr from ESPN) says that Watkins is the best "run after the catch" receiver he has seen in his 36 years of covering the NFL draft. So, it sounds like the prevailing attitude amongst "experts" (fwiw) is that he is that much better than Beckham..and Evans, Lee, etc etc If you stop and think about it, this may be the first time since the Bills drafted Bruce Smith, or OJ Simpson before him, that the Bills have walked out of the draft with arguably the most coveted player in the draft class. I know, I know....people will say it is irrelevant because our QB sucks. While I don't believe that to the case, supposing it is...look at the highlights on this kid. For as many rainbow passes he caught and took to the house, he had just as many screen passes thrown his way, where he separated the defense and passed through multitudes of defenders...he really doesn't need a lot of time or space to make something happen. He really is like an elite speed running back at WR. And, he shows a knack for fighting for poorly thrown passes... Relax a little and try to enjoy... Edited May 14, 2014 by Buftex
bbb Posted May 14, 2014 Posted May 14, 2014 I have read numerous "experts" on Watkins, and nearly every one seems to feel that Watkins was far and away the best receiver in this years draft, many claim he is the best of the last 5 drafts...and some felt like he was the best player in this draft, regardless of position. One guy (Mel Kiper Jr from ESPN) says that Watkins is the best "run after the catch" receiver he has seen in his 36 years of covering the NFL draft. So, it sounds like the prevailing attitude amongst "experts" (fwiw) is that he is that much better than Beckham..and Evans, Lee, etc etc If you stop and think about it, this may be the first time since the Bills drafted Bruce Smith, or OJ Simpson before him, that the Bills have walked out of the draft with arguably the most coveted player in the draft class. I know, I know....people will say it is irrelevant because our QB sucks. While I don't believe that to the case, supposing it is...look at the highlights on this kid. For as many rainbow passes he caught and took to the house, he had just as many screen passes thrown his way, where he separated the defense and passed through multitudes of defenders...he really doesn't need a lot of time or space to make something happen. He really is like an elite speed running back at WR. And, he shows a knack for fighting for poorly thrown passes... Relax a little and try to enjoy... I haven't been able to watch highlights. I know he's great in open space and YAC, etc. But, is he like Eric Moulds where you can throw in to him in the end zone, and even though he's totally covered, he's the one who is going to come down with the ball?
Rocky Landing Posted May 14, 2014 Posted May 14, 2014 If EJ doesnt pan out If EJ doesnt pan out If EJ doesnt pan out This is a horse that has been beaten to death....sent to the glue factory.....put back together again in a paper machey horse....then set on fire Why is it so hard to understand that this is the QB that this leadership group has hooked their cart to.....and that he probably not only gets this year but THE FOLLOWING YEAR as well due to the injury plagued shortened first year season....... Kevin Kolb was brought in to be the transition guy......when he got hurt EJ got thrown into the fire earlier then they anticipated.....but now we are past that first stage and now they are just looking for EJ to show progression. Look at the OL Look at the recievers Look at the running game THey have effectively built this team up AROUND the young quarterback That's not exactly true. There was quite a bit of speculation, right up until Kolb's injury (I'm not even sure which one!), as to who would be the starting QB last season. I would say that a clear majority of people on this forum argued adamantly that EJ should start right away, and anything else would be a waste of time. You might have been one of them. I was not-- and I felt distinctly in the minority.
K-9 Posted May 14, 2014 Posted May 14, 2014 That's really not true. We can easily place a value on future picks. (And the FO better be doing just that!) And, we can certainly discus how our current situation, and other likely scenarios will affect the value of our future picks. It's an interesting discussion. This thread is all about the perceived value of our trade-up for Watkins. How can we discus that trade, if we don't discus the potential value of what we invested? Please tell me the value of the 2015 #1 pick we traded to Cleveland. Right now that "value" begins and ends with Sammy Watkins, the only "known" value in the equation at present. We can discuss the trade all we want. The value of the trade won't be known until there are certain quantifiers in place. GO BILLS!!!
Dorkington Posted May 14, 2014 Posted May 14, 2014 That's not exactly true. There was quite a bit of speculation, right up until Kolb's injury (I'm not even sure which one!), as to who would be the starting QB last season. I would say that a clear majority of people on this forum argued adamantly that EJ should start right away, and anything else would be a waste of time. You might have been one of them. I was not-- and I felt distinctly in the minority. It certainly helped that EJ looked better than Kolb from the start.
Buftex Posted May 14, 2014 Posted May 14, 2014 (edited) I haven't been able to watch highlights. I know he's great in open space and YAC, etc. But, is he like Eric Moulds where you can throw in to him in the end zone, and even though he's totally covered, he's the one who is going to come down with the ball? Yes, he has a great vertical leap, great concentration, and will fight for the ball in the air. I have heard him compared to Larry Fitzgerald, not just for the obvious hair reasons. Btw- Mike Williams also possesses this Mouldian skill that you speak of.... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Kjkh3yV8YA Edited May 14, 2014 by Buftex
John from Riverside Posted May 14, 2014 Posted May 14, 2014 It certainly helped that EJ looked better than Kolb from the start. I thought he did as well....but I really feel that Maroone was trying to give Kolb every chance to compete....right up to when he got hurt again. I really feel that they wanted to ease Manuel along it just didnt work out that way.....it didnt ruin Manuel it got him live game snaps in his first year And now he is ready to rock and roll
Rocky Landing Posted May 14, 2014 Posted May 14, 2014 (edited) Please tell me the value of the 2015 #1 pick we traded to Cleveland. Right now that "value" begins and ends with Sammy Watkins, the only "known" value in the equation at present. We can discuss the trade all we want. The value of the trade won't be known until there are certain quantifiers in place. GO BILLS!!! This is an absolutely silly post. Of course we can (and should) speculate on the future value of our two 2015 picks that we invested. The "value begins and ends with Sammy Watkins...(?)" I don't even know what that means. But, the assertion that you can't speculate on the value of anything until all of the "known values in the equation" are... er, "known" or something, is worthy of a face palm-- Look, here's a handy Draft Pick Value Chart: http://harvardsports...draftvalue1.jpg I'm not sure what any of that means, but I think it's pretty funny that it even exists. So, no, I can't tell you the precise value of the 2015 #1 pick we traded to Cleveland. It would be silly to try. No one can say exactly what the ROI will be on Watkins until it happens. If we did, there would be nothing to debate! But there is plenty of information, and various scenarios that make it worthy of discussion and speculation. Future values are always based on speculation-- even investments with guaranteed returns. Edited May 14, 2014 by Rocky Landing
K-9 Posted May 14, 2014 Posted May 14, 2014 This is an absolutely silly post. Of course we can (and should) speculate on the future value of our two 2015 picks that we invested. The "value begins and ends with Sammy Watkins...(?)" I don't even know what that means. But, the assertion that you can't speculate on the value of anything until all of the "known values in the equation" are... er, "known" or something, is worthy of a face palm-- Look, here's a handy Draft Pick Value Chart: http://harvardsports...draftvalue1.jpg I'm not sure what any of that means, but I think it's pretty funny that it even exists. So, no, I can't tell you the precise value of the 2015 #1 pick we traded to Cleveland. It would be silly to try. No one can say exactly what the ROI will be on Watkins until it happens. If we did, there would be nothing to debate! But there is plenty of information, and various scenarios that make it worthy of discussion and speculation. Future values are always based on speculation-- even investments with guaranteed returns. Key word being: speculate. Like I said, we can speculate all we want. That's what I said previously as well. But it doesn't mean anything. What means something at this point is the very real, tangible asset we acquired in the form of Sammy Watkins. That is not subject to speculation. GO BILLS!!! I thought he did as well....but I really feel that Maroone was trying to give Kolb every chance to compete....right up to when he got hurt again. I really feel that they wanted to ease Manuel along it just didnt work out that way.....it didnt ruin Manuel it got him live game snaps in his first year And now he is ready to rock and roll Marrone did give Kolb every chance. Manuel produced more with his reps than Kolb did and earned the job. Not something the coaches wanted, ideally, but that was the reality. It's too bad, too, because EJ could have used a redshirt season. GO BILLS!!!
thewildrabbit Posted May 15, 2014 Posted May 15, 2014 When the Falcons made the Julio Jones trade, people said much the same thing they're saying now. Great player, but they paid too much ... Jones will have to be sensational to make this a worthwhile trade. It's got nothing to do with bias against the Bills. It's got to do with what a risk we took by giving away that 2nd 1st rounder. It's too early to know if there's an Andrew Luck next year. And even if there were, we wouldn't be bad enough to get him. You don't need an Andrew Luck. A Kaepernick or a Dalton would be OK. But it's not just a QB. One thing that will absolutely be true is that after next year we'll have at least one real need and that a 1st round pick would be a terrific chance to address that need. Safety? DE? Slot receiver? TE? Or something less predictable, WR maybe if Williams gets arrested? Or yeah, QB? Right now, we don't know. But it'll be something. Ya know, five draft picks is what the Falcons paid for Jones, and he is a pro bowl WR. But was he worth what they paid? The #26 pick in the first round, the #59th in the second round, the #124 in the 4th round. Then the next year they gave up Atlanta's first and fourth round selections. so, swapped #1's, a #1 the next year, a #2, and two fourth rounders. They moved down 20 spots for a #1, #2, 2 #4's. Now this year they could have drafted WR Mike Evans at #6, and instead took an OT. This was a 13-3 Atlanta team in 2010, and there were no free agent WR's?? Like Vincent Jackson, Brandon Marshall that were both free agents that year. They could have saved a bunch of picks just by grabbing the right free agent. This year the Bills could have broken the bank to sign DeSean Jackson away from the Eagles. just sayin...or, is this team still defined by how much money they can save on players. Bye Stevie. Shifting gears, I can remember back to the 2009 draft, and all the talk, discussions in this forum about needing a pass rusher. The biggest thing I heard was "you can't teach speed"! Clearly Dick Jauron fell in love with Aaron Maybin, and his speed, then drafted him with the #11 pick. Then two picks later the Redskins picked a real pass rusher in Brian Orakpo. Then two picks after that Brian Cushing was drafted by the Texans. Like I said, the media is so conditioned to see the Bills picks blow up in their faces, that you could call it a "conditioned response". You can't really fault anyone that isn't a Bills fan from finding fault with this trade. I just hope that all this love for Sammy Watkins isn't a blind kind of love, as I see that he had a drug problem back in 2012, and was suspended by the team, and missed games from it. With Watkins almost 60% of his catches were from screen plays, and another 13% he caught passes within the first five yards of the line of scrimmage. That is 70% of the passes he caught last year. There is little doubt that the kid flourished in that Clemson offensive scheme. Now, what happens when he gets jammed at the line, and doesn't even see the ball with the first five yards? He only averaged 10% at 5-10, 11-20, 20+ yards. Think about what its like for college players that are playing against other players that will never see the NFL unless they buy tickets like everyone else. Its a bunch of college boys playing against college boys. There is a world of difference between what a player does in college vs playing in NFL against professionals. Don't get me wrong here, as I like the kid a lot. His favorite NFL team was Bills since he was a little kid. I hope he makes the pro bowl this year. I just gotta wonder if the Bills wouldn't have been better off staying at #9, and drafting Odell Beckham Jr, Taylor Lewan or trading back picking up an extra #2. Time will tell. Now everyone can't wait for September. Including me.
bbb Posted May 15, 2014 Posted May 15, 2014 Yes, he has a great vertical leap, great concentration, and will fight for the ball in the air. I have heard him compared to Larry Fitzgerald, not just for the obvious hair reasons. Btw- Mike Williams also possesses this Mouldian skill that you speak of.... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Kjkh3yV8YA I still haven't seen what I'm looking for. The first highlight came the closest. With one guy pretty much covering him..........Tons of great running in that video...........Larry Fitz has two inches on Sammy. Hopefully, Sammy's leaping makes up for that.
Thurman#1 Posted May 15, 2014 Posted May 15, 2014 +1 Whaley is in good company when it comes to bucking the consensus opinion of the experts. In 1985 I recall that Bill Walsh's judgment was questioned for trading up in the 1st round and taking a little known receiver from a small college named Jerry RIce from Mississippi Valley State. Walsh had no 1st rounder in the 1986 draft as a result of the trade. It would make a good story if it were true. But it's not. In fact, we gave up more for Sammy than the 9ers gave up for Rice. The 9ers switched first round picks and gave up a 2nd in the same year, with the Patriots. They didn't give away their next year's first rounder. The next year, they traded down twice, ending up with no first round pick, but that had nothing to do with the Rice deal.
Thurman#1 Posted May 15, 2014 Posted May 15, 2014 (edited) Sorry, but you have the semantics screwed up. The proper English is that we spend this years first and gave up next year's first round pick. When you "give up" pick(s), the universal understanding is that you gave the pick(s) to some other team in order to improve your situation. So you "give up" your seventh round pick to move up and swap picks with another team. IF you want to say that the language is that we "gave up" our third round pick to the league to draft Preston Brown, well go ahead. You might be the only person saying it that way. No, that is NOT the "universal" understanding, it's yours. "Give up," simply means relinquish. You have to relinquish your pick to get your guy. You have to relinquish your money if you want the candy bar. "Give up," can also mean to "devote to a particular purpose or use." Either of those uses is perfectly legit when used to say that we gave up two firsts and a 4th for Watkins. Perfectly reasonable to say that last year we gave up the 16th pick for EJ. Not the commonest usage. But perfectly legit. It certainly helped that EJ looked better than Kolb from the start. He didn't. Remember, at the time, the defense was throwing all their blitzes and schemes at Kolb, but they didn't blitz Manuel, he simply wasn't ready to handle it. So yeah, EJ had a bit more success in camp before his injury, but that wasn't because he was playing better. Edited May 15, 2014 by Thurman#1
Thurman#1 Posted May 15, 2014 Posted May 15, 2014 (edited) Key word being: speculate. Like I said, we can speculate all we want. That's what I said previously as well. But it doesn't mean anything. What means something at this point is the very real, tangible asset we acquired in the form of Sammy Watkins. That is not subject to speculation. GO BILLS!!! If that's how you want to look at speculation, sure. But it's only speculation that Sammy Watkins will have a great NFL career. No way to be sure of it. Pure speculation. So you're using speculation as much as anyone speculating on the worth of next year's pick. It's all speculation and guesswork when you're trying to predict the future. exactly! and Whaley is in his second year as a GM. Then considering the past 14 years of bad drafting the pundits think how can anyone be excited about this draft. Whaley is entering his 12th month as GM. He's running his first draft, which was scary but also more or less unconnected to the 14 previous years. Fair enough, though, that he doesn't get any benefit of the doubt yet. The only ones who do are guys with solid track records. Edited May 15, 2014 by Thurman#1
NastyNateSoldiers Posted May 15, 2014 Posted May 15, 2014 We should of just offered Stevie J and 2nd&3rd rounder next yr to Cleveland. That's the most I would have paid.
K-9 Posted May 15, 2014 Posted May 15, 2014 If that's how you want to look at speculation, sure. But it's only speculation that Sammy Watkins will have a great NFL career. No way to be sure of it. Pure speculation. So you're using speculation as much as anyone speculating on the worth of next year's pick. It's all speculation and guesswork when you're trying to predict the future. I'd be interested in hearing about what I have speculated concerning Sammy Watkins' career. I haven't. Watkins is simply the only tangible asset regarding the trade. Next year's first round pick simply can't be quantified at this point. Here is some speculation for you though: given all I've heard about Sammy Watkins from a couple guys I really trust, there won't be a receiver available in next year's draft that comes close to approaching him in terms of ability, both demonstrated on the college level and in his potential as a pro. Indeed, there may not a player at ANY position, who will enter next year's draft with as high a grade as Watkins garnered this year. Such is what the scouting community thought of Watkins coming out. Please understand that I fully appreciate the very subjective nature of the scouting business. But even given all his hoopla, I think Watkins is UNDER-valued by a fair portion of the fanbase simply BECAUSE of the trade and what we invested in the pick vs. his actual ability. GO BILLS!!!
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