Cost of Watkins = Typical Media Bias against Buffalo

[thewildrabbit]

Hmmm I don't seem to recall the media bias against Buffalo when they made the playoffs regularly... The Bills have sucked for a decade and a half. What do you expect? Win some games and they will get some respect.

exactly!

 

and Whaley is in his second year as a GM. Then considering the past 14 years of bad drafting the pundits think how can anyone be excited about this draft.

[Kirby Jackson]

exactly!

 

and Whaley is in his second year as a GM. Then considering the past 14 years of bad drafting the pundits think how can anyone be excited about this draft.

It doesn't change their job though. Their job is to evaluate the picks. Take Kiper for example (not to keep picking on him) but he had Watkins as his 2nd best player (I believe). Mel said that he was ahead of Julio Jones coming out and right where AJ Green was. Then he had Cyrus Kuoandijo as his 32nd ranked player that the Bills traded back for and still got at a position of need. So they got his 2nd best player at 4 and his 32nd best player at 45, both at positions of need and received a C-? In addition, they got two other offensive linemen with tons on talent (plus question marks) and a couple of rotational defensive players. It just doesn't make sense. Edited May 14, 2014 by Kirby Jackson

[thewildrabbit]

It doesn't change their job though. Their job is to evaluate the picks. Take Kiper for example (not to keep picking on him) but he had Watkins as his 2nd best player (I believe). Mel said that he was ahead of Julio Jones coming out and right where AJ Green was. Then he had Cyrus Kuoandijo as his 32nd ranked player that the Bills traded back for and still got at a position of need. So they got his 2nd best player at 4 and his 32nd best player at 45, both at positions of need and received a C-? In addition, they got two other offensive linemen with tons on talent (plus question marks) and a couple of rotational defensive players. It just doesn't make sense.

It does Kirby when you factor in the #1 & #4 picks in 2015 they gave up. Like I've stated before, the Dolphins traded up from 12 to 3 last year, and it only cost them one second rounder.

 

Buddy Nix is probably spinning from that trade up because he loves his picks, and wants players to fall to him.

 

I admit It was a gutsy move on Whaley's part to make that move up, as he is betting his future on EJ, and Sammy. Bills fans simply don't want to think about the bad that can happen. This time of year every Bills fan is eternally optimistic about the upcoming season, and frown on anyone that says otherwise.

 

It just so happens that this year they have some actual reasons to be optimistic, as they have enough talent on both sides of the ball to have a winning season. IMO.

[Kirby Jackson]

It does Kirby when you factor in the #1 & #4 picks in 2015 they gave up. Like I've stated before, the Dolphins traded up from 12 to 3 last year, and it only cost them one second rounder.

 

Buddy Nix is probably spinning from that trade up because he loves his picks, and wants players to fall to him.

 

I admit It was a gutsy move on Whaley's part to make that move up, as he is betting his future on EJ, and Sammy. Bills fans simply don't want to think about the bad that can happen. This time of year every Bills fan is eternally optimistic about the upcoming season, and frown on anyone that says otherwise.

 

It just so happens that this year they have some actual reasons to be optimistic, as they have enough talent on both sides of the ball to have a winning season. IMO.

I'm with you that the talent is there for a winning season. It really is in EJ's hands. I hope that he develops.

 

Kiper also gave ATL a hard time about the Julio trade I believe. He was wrong. The price was high but you pay for elite players in the draft or you never get them. Watkins is about as safe as a rookie can be and was the highest rated player on the Bills board over the last 2 years. I am not sure about prior to that but I am pretty sure Luck had a higher grade.

 

I'm not trying to be overly optimistic but they did not deserve the 2nd lowest draft grade. That's why he is getting killed on social media. If he would have said something like "I love the players but they paid a high price so I give them a B" no one would have questioned it. They got an elite talent and good players at need positions.

 

My issue is that the national pundits claim to be experts but aren't at all on any team. There is so much coverage on the local level now that the fans are so much more educated than the "experts." We are not learning anything from them or their analysis. While I don't really care about their opinions I care that they don't take the time to formulate well reasoned opinions.

[The Bunk]

You can't compare what Buffalo did to get Watkins to what ATL did to land Julio. The Falcons already had an established franchise passer in Matt Ryan, Buffalo's QB situation is far more murky. Most peoples' issue with Buffalo giving up the 2015 1st rounder is if Manuel doesn't look like the future we'll need another QB and won't have a top 15 pick to use to potentially land one. My thought is as long as EJ stays healthy and makes progress he was getting 2015 anyways so Whaley and co probably figured the 2015 1st was worth the risk since they didn't plan on needing/drafting a QB then anyways. If it doesn't work out we'll have a whole new staff in here and they'll have their own 2016 1st round pick to use on their own QB if EJ doesn't pan out.

[Rob's House]

Bottom line is we spent 2 first round picks to upgrade from Stevie Johnson to Sammy Watkins. There could be very good reasons for it, but on paper it hardly looks like a no-brainer. It's not surprising the media (most of whom aren't biased against, or even give half a **** about the Bills) aren't gushing over the move. How many of you were hoping we'd trade next year's 1st to move up for Watkins before you heard it announced?

[bbb]

Payton Manning and Drew Brees were NOT acquired by their current teams via the draft - circumstances led these veterans to free agency where they signed - BINGO. Similar events might free up a Big Ben or a Sam Bradford etcccc next year

Neither the Saints nor the Broncos used a top draft choice to get their QB - they got them by signing on the free agent market.

Kurt Warner went to the Cardinals in the same way.

Brady - 6th rd pick

Brees - free agency

Manning - Free Agency

Rogers - 20+ pick in rd1

Koepernick - 2nd rd

Wislon - 3rd rd

 

I keep saying - it's all about the odds. The odds are much better that you're going to draft your franchise QB in the first round than you're going to get one in free agency.

 

In the 2011 Draft, the Falcons traded their 2011 1st round pick and 4th round pick plus their 2012 1st and 4th round picks for the right to draft Julio Jones. Most thought they gave up too much then.

 

At the time, Jason Kirk of SBNation wrote:

 

They had their QB all set! :wallbash:

[Wing Man]

I'm not much of a conspiracy theorist when it comes to the media, but in this case, I'm all in. Winning solves these problems, but the ESPN's crack smokers, and this year in particular, CBSSports, have it in for Buffalo and every move they make. Sammy Watkins' career is forever tainted by being selected by the Bills and his failure will be a powerful object lesson in how not to be drafted by a NFL team. For God's sake, don't be great in college because Buffalo could select you and it will somehow be a quick path to football oblivion. No one is aware that there is a franchise in Buffalo to begin with, aren't they some sort of arena league team? So when a college player is stunned to learn they have been selected in the draft by an NFL team that has been in the league since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger, earlier than the Bucs, Panthers, Jaguars, Texans, Ravens (moved from Cleveland), Colts (moved from Baltimore), Rams (moved from LA), Cardinals (moved from St. Louis), Titans (moved from Houston), the second coming of the Cleveland Browns, and the DEFENDING SUPER BOWL CHAMPION Seahawks, well it's time to break out the crying towels. And the seventh angel will descend in the form of Mel Kiper and execute his wrath upon all Western New York, and there will be wailing and gnashing of teeth. An under appreciated and rabid fan base will inexplicably be draped in sackcloth and ashes. All will bow down to Kiper and McShay and despair.

 

We drafted a Hall of Fame running back the last year we didn't have a first or fourth round pick in the draft. Cornelius Bennett was the second overall pick in the 1987 NFL Draft by the Indianapolis Colts. He never played a down for them and was dealt to the Bills for Greg Bell (to the LA Rams), two first round draft picks and a second rounder in 1988. This supremely expensive three way trade including the LA Rams (the Rams sent fumble machine Eric Dickerson to the Colts as part of the deal) was manufactured by nobody GM Bill Polian. Bennett played in five Super Bowls, four with the Bills and one with Atlanta. That was a genius trade then but would be classified as an insane exchange today. How do you give away the store for a player that isn't a quarterback? What do you do the next year without a first round pick? Gee, I don't know, how about draft Thurman Thomas? The Bills would surely be crippled for a decade by a deal like that. Nevermind the four Super Bowls, that's got to be the worst trade ever followed by the worst draft ever because Bills.

 

Watkins has every bit as much, if not more potential as Biscuit did then. They are clearly setup for major improvements along the offensive line and stole a terrific DB in Ross Cochrane. The Whaley-Marrone strategy looks to be molding together. Will it work? Who can say. But it's going to be a whole lot more interesting than drafting Odell Beckham, Jr. or Eric Ebron and trying to stop Sammy Watkins when we play the Lions this year.

 

Hey ESPN, CBS, bite me.

[DefenseWinzChampionshipz]

And the sad thing is local media is whining as well. We gave up two #1 picks for a guy that most likely (according to EVERY 'expert') will become an elite player. But Buffalo gave up too much? What is an elite player that other teams must game plan for worth?

 

I don't remember anywhere near the angst from NFLN, ESPN Etal. about the Julio Jones trade and they gave up essentially THREE #1's a #2 etc. But why is this? Because its BUFFALO!

 

All of a sudden this 'elite' player who many teams had #1 Overall on their board 'must work out to justify the cost'? Um this is the same guy you guys were touting as either the top guy or top 2 in your analysis and mock drafts right? The same guy who the experts said would be an elite WR, that would excel in the NFL, a 'No miss prospect'? But all of a sudden he must work out?

 

Typical Bull **** bias toward the Bills and it has been glaring from that pick through now when the media and some fans are still whining about it. Sometimes you just have to pull the trigger. Who knows who we get next year and honestly I dont give a damn about the 2015 draft at all. I want to win NOW. I want to see significant progress NOW. And if whaley is good he will keep the quality talent he knows can fit our system and win (within reason...) and he can find talent in the 2nd round on next year. If we have a playoff team THIS year, adding to it in the future is much easier...the core of the playoff team is already in place!

 

Look Whaley has put together a team that should gel pretty damn well before that really crappy December run. If we get a RT And Guard that start and kick ass, along with The running game improving and Watkins, Wood, Williams and Goodwin kicking ass along with FINALLY stopping the run much better than we did, then this team is light years ahead of even last year. And to me that means playoffs.

 

Ill just say it right now, (and I get these are two if's) IF the team stays healthy, and IF the new guys Gel... We beat NE for the AFCE Title. Yes I said it, we will win the AFC East division title.

 

Its on like a Mofo!

 

Whaley did his job almost PERFECT. The free agency was great IMO and the offseason is still on and going as we traded a draft pick next year for Bryce Brown (who after reading up on and watched videos on I'm very excited about).

 

Whaley did what we needed him to do and that's make the team better, help EJ out by protecting him and giving him better weapons and defend the run better.

 

This team is EJ's (to win or lose).

[Kirby Jackson]

Bottom line is we spent 2 first round picks to upgrade from Stevie Johnson to Sammy Watkins. There could be very good reasons for it, but on paper it hardly looks like a no-brainer. It's not surprising the media (most of whom aren't biased against, or even give half a **** about the Bills) aren't gushing over the move. How many of you were hoping we'd trade next year's 1st to move up for Watkins before you heard it announced?

I'm on record as wanting them to trade up for Watkins. I was hoping to keep next year's 1 but was fine with this year's 2. As it turns out they may have been better off keeping their 2. They ended up getting Cyrus Kuoandijo & Cyril Richardson by keeping their 2nd. Those 2 guys will be long term starters on the OL IMO.

 

In terms of Watkins I really don't know what to say to those that question it. Maybe people simply haven't seen enough of him? This guy isn't a pretty good player that will be another Stevie (in all likelihood). He will make a Fitzgerald like impact. Watkins really is the most talented player that this team has drafted since Thurman (IMO).

 

In addition, he is a guy that does his work after the ball in his hands. He will be successful with any QB because of that. You saw Stevie struggle last year because his game is predicated on precise route running. When you have a QB with accuracy issues that will negatively impact the precise route runner. Sammy will be used like Edleman but way, way more explosive after the catch. He runs like a RB in the open field and through tackles. They will get the ball in his hands and let him make plays. I love Stevie (more than most on here) but there is no comparison between the 2.

 

I feel like I have a pretty good grasp of the Bills (much better than Mel) and for me it was a no brainer. I was told before the draft that if the Bills had an opportunity to get Watkins they would "sprint to the podium and start celebrating." That is how they feel about the player and that is good enough for me.

Edited May 14, 2014 by Kirby Jackson

[gobilz]

Yikes how many posts for the same thing. Yes they gave up next years #1 so they gave up one additional #1 pick, correct. But in addition to next years #1, they used this years #1 as well. 1+1=2. That's their basis for saying 2 picks. Simple semantics people.

try counting with your fingers next time

[All_Pro_Bills]

You can't compare what Buffalo did to get Watkins to what ATL did to land Julio. The Falcons already had an established franchise passer in Matt Ryan, Buffalo's QB situation is far more murky. Most peoples' issue with Buffalo giving up the 2015 1st rounder is if Manuel doesn't look like the future we'll need another QB and won't have a top 15 pick to use to potentially land one. My thought is as long as EJ stays healthy and makes progress he was getting 2015 anyways so Whaley and co probably figured the 2015 1st was worth the risk since they didn't plan on needing/drafting a QB then anyways. If it doesn't work out we'll have a whole new staff in here and they'll have their own 2016 1st round pick to use on their own QB if EJ doesn't pan out.

The problem with that theory, the Bills will 'need' that 1st rounder to select a QB, is that there is no clear franchise Andrew Luck type QB waiting to come out next season. There are a few prospects but no clear cut sure things and certainly nobody rated high enough to use the 1st overall pick in the draft. So even if they kept next years 1st there is no guarantee that anybody better is going to be available via the draft in 2015.

Dropping their grade because they 'gave up too much' is outside the process of evaluating the picks. First, you are looking at who they drafted not how they acquired those picks. That is more evaluating the GM's job than his picks. Second, how do these guys know how much is too much? Were they particpating in the trade discussions with the teams at the draft? Do they know the offers and counteroffers? Its just an uninformed opinion about the trade and an assumption that those future picks are going to derive some greater value than anyone can possibly evaluate until the picks are made next year. So if anything, they should lower the Bills grade next season, but this season, no because the trade did not cost anything of significance in 2014 while providing a greater benefit. The cost of that move will be borne next year because what the Bills did was borrow from the future for today.

Here's the other thing. These draft evaluators are injected their expectation of the Bills 2014 seaon into their thinking. What they're saying is the Bills are going to have another losing season this year and end up with a top 10 pick in 2015 which they traded to Cleveland. EJ is not going to improve because we did not like that pick in 2013 and if we change our mind and say he's going to improve that would be an admission that our evalutation of that pick in 2013 was wrong and we will not admit our mistakes. And Watkins is not going to do anything to improve the Bills records. So they gave up 'too much'. But go to the exteme opposite and make the assumption the Bills make the playoffs and the pick is now a high 20's pick. How does the cost look now?

Edited May 14, 2014 by All_Pro_Bills

[ALF]

If the Bills make the playoffs this coming season , Whaley will be a genius. I hope it happens.

[MDH]

It doesn't change their job though. Their job is to evaluate the picks. Take Kiper for example (not to keep picking on him) but he had Watkins as his 2nd best player (I believe). Mel said that he was ahead of Julio Jones coming out and right where AJ Green was. Then he had Cyrus Kuoandijo as his 32nd ranked player that the Bills traded back for and still got at a position of need. So they got his 2nd best player at 4 and his 32nd best player at 45, both at positions of need and received a C-? In addition, they got two other offensive linemen with tons on talent (plus question marks) and a couple of rotational defensive players. It just doesn't make sense.

 

The sad truth is that the pundits will look at who did the drafting and grade accordingly. If a GM with a great track record is behind the draft they're more likely to improve the grade. Pundits, like most people, cover their a$$es as much as possible. It's easy to pick on the downtrodden.

 

I watched a few shows on NFL network about past drafts the other day and they covered 1994. That's the year Kiper ripped the Colts for not drafting Heath Shuler or Trent Dilfer in the top 8 picks. Whoops.

[Thurman#1]

And the sad thing is local media is whining as well. We gave up two #1 picks for a guy that most likely (according to EVERY 'expert') will become an elite player. But Buffalo gave up too much? What is an elite player that other teams must game plan for worth?

 

I don't remember anywhere near the angst from NFLN, ESPN Etal. about the Julio Jones trade and they gave up essentially THREE #1's a #2 etc. But why is this? Because its BUFFALO!

 

All of a sudden this 'elite' player who many teams had #1 Overall on their board 'must work out to justify the cost'? Um this is the same guy you guys were touting as either the top guy or top 2 in your analysis and mock drafts right? The same guy who the experts said would be an elite WR, that would excel in the NFL, a 'No miss prospect'? But all of a sudden he must work out?

 

Typical Bull **** bias toward the Bills and it has been glaring from that pick through now when the media and some fans are still whining about it. Sometimes you just have to pull the trigger. Who knows who we get next year and honestly I dont give a damn about the 2015 draft at all. I want to win NOW. I want to see significant progress NOW. And if whaley is good he will keep the quality talent he knows can fit our system and win (within reason...) and he can find talent in the 2nd round on next year. If we have a playoff team THIS year, adding to it in the future is much easier...the core of the playoff team is already in place!

 

Look Whaley has put together a team that should gel pretty damn well before that really crappy December run. If we get a RT And Guard that start and kick ass, along with The running game improving and Watkins, Wood, Williams and Goodwin kicking ass along with FINALLY stopping the run much better than we did, then this team is light years ahead of even last year. And to me that means playoffs.

 

Ill just say it right now, (and I get these are two if's) IF the team stays healthy, and IF the new guys Gel... We beat NE for the AFCE Title. Yes I said it, we will win the AFC East division title.

 

Its on like a Mofo!

 

 

When the Falcons made the Julio Jones trade, people said much the same thing they're saying now. Great player, but they paid too much ... Jones will have to be sensational to make this a worthwhile trade.

 

It's got nothing to do with bias against the Bills. It's got to do with what a risk we took by giving away that 2nd 1st rounder.

 

The problem with that theory, the Bills will 'need' that 1st rounder to select a QB, is that there is no clear franchise Andrew Luck type QB waiting to come out next season.

 

 

It's too early to know if there's an Andrew Luck next year. And even if there were, we wouldn't be bad enough to get him. You don't need an Andrew Luck. A Kaepernick or a Dalton would be OK.

 

But it's not just a QB. One thing that will absolutely be true is that after next year we'll have at least one real need and that a 1st round pick would be a terrific chance to address that need. Safety? DE? Slot receiver? TE? Or something less predictable, WR maybe if Williams gets arrested? Or yeah, QB? Right now, we don't know. But it'll be something.

Edited May 14, 2014 by Thurman#1

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

When the Falcons made the Julio Jones trade, people said much the same thing they're saying now. Great player, but they paid too much ... Jones will have to be sensational to make this a worthwhile trade.

 

It's got nothing to do with bias against the Bills. It's got to do with what a risk we took by giving away that 2nd 1st rounder.

 

 

 

 

It's too early to know if there's an Andrew Luck next year. And even if there were, we wouldn't be bad enough to get him. You don't need an Andrew Luck. A Kaepernick or a Dalton would be OK.

 

But it's not just a QB. One thing that will absolutely be true is that after next year we'll have at least one real need and that a 1st round pick would be a terrific chance to address that need. Safety? DE? Slot receiver? TE? Or something less predictable, WR maybe if Williams gets arrested? Or yeah, QB? Right now, we don't know. But it'll be something.

I think we should worry about next year's needs at the time. We can still make trades to move in the draft to fill needs next season.

[JESSEFEFFER]

I think many people overestimate the value of a 1st round pick. because they overestimate the value of the draft. Salary cap restraints mean that free agency is a much more legitimate part of building a team. Less money devoted to rookie contracts = more money for free agents. Due to the way contracts are designed, some pretty good players get cut during training camp.

 

Yeah, the Bills blew the Maybin pick but I think most would agree that trading for Hughes pretty much negated that mistake. Hughes was everything they could have hoped Maybin would be.

 

Mel Kiper has made a career out of covering the NFL draft and having opinions about it. It's probably a VERY lucrative one considering that there is no real penalty fro being wrong, unlike the real scouts and GMs. I think the spectacle of the draft is such that fans do the same.

 

This is all to say that surrendering a 1st round pick is not a franchise killer. There are other means to getting a new QB for 2015 other than a top 10 pick, if they so desire and the new QB will have Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin and maybe Mike Williams to throw to and what will probably be an upper echelon o-line to protect him.

Edited May 14, 2014 by JESSEFEFFER

[K-9]

.... But it's not just a QB. One thing that will absolutely be true is that after next year we'll have at least one real need and that a 1st round pick would be a terrific chance to address that need. Safety? DE? Slot receiver? TE? Or something less predictable, WR maybe if Williams gets arrested? Or yeah, QB? Right now, we don't know. But it'll be something.

 

This is the perfect description of a front office that operates out of fear. You simply can't do that. Ever. You either have faith in your process and belief in the players you select and the price you sometimes pay to select them, or you don't. All this gnashing of teeth over a future pick for a future player that doesn't even exist yet, is a waste of time. It simply can't be quantified until all the facts are in.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Scenario one: We have the ninth pick and use it on Sammy Watkins because he fell to us (unlikely). Then next year we use our number one to draft Joe Schmoe. Scenario two: We trade our one and four from next year and swap spots 4 for 9 and draft Sammy, because it was unlikely he would be there at 9. In both we drafted Sammy with OUR pick. In one the pick was in our spot(unlikely), in the other we paid a price to move up 5 spots. What is different? instead of drafting Joe Schmoe number one next year Cleveland will. That was the cost, our 4 and 9 next year. Our pick this year didn't cost a thing, it was ours either way. I don't understand why people keep saying we gave away 2 number ones. No we didn't- we got Sammy and gave away ONE number one!! Saying this years number one was part of the cost ridiculous. Using the logic some are using, RG3 cost FOUR number ones. The pick to draft him and the three to move up. Charging The Bills 2 number ones because they actually drafted the guy they traded for is ludicrous.

Edited May 14, 2014 by 75Bills

[bbb]

Schmoe is going to be a bust anyways!