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Thinking outside the box with RD 1 picks


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I like to think outside the box whenever possible in life. I was thinking about Whaley's move to get Watkins and how so many talking heads liked the move, but said the price of an extra 1st was too high. The Bills moved up from #9 where there were no more premium players left on the board (at least in relation to their pre-draft rankings) and snagged a player that many believe is the most talented in the entire draft.

 

Okay, so here's the outside the box thinking:

 

What if the Bills made a similar move every 2 years? Every other year the team trades the next year's #1 away to move up in the draft and grab one of the top 4 or 5 players available. Over a 6 year period that would give them 4 superstars (in theory, barring busts).

 

The alternative is to stay put and take guys like Maybin, Flowers, McCargo, Losman, etc.

 

What do you think, revolutionary idea to success or pure madness?

Edited by ChevyVanMiller
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I like to think outside the box whenever possible in life. I was thinking about Whaley's move to get Watkins and how so many talking heads liked the move, but said the price of an extra 1st was too high. The Bills moved up from #9 where there were no more premium players left on the board (at least in relation to their pre-draft rankings) and snagged a player that many believe is the most talented in the entire draft.

 

Okay, so here's the outside the box thinking:

 

What if the Bills made a similar move every 2 years? Every other year the team trades the next year's #1 away to move up in the draft and grab one of the top 4 or 5 players available. Over an 8 year period that would give them 4 superstars (in theory, barring busts).

 

The alternative is to stay put and take guys like Maybin, Flowers, McCargo, Losman, etc.

 

What do you think, revolutionary idea to success or pure madness?

It is pure madness!! I kind of like it. I don't know if I would follow that pattern because I think that you need really good players and depth. I like the idea of going out and getting elite talent when you have the chance. If you use Adrian Peterson as the example he took that team to the playoffs in 2012 and they were terrible!! I know that he is an outlier but those guys can win you games. If you use QB as the example that is a no brainer. If you go pay the price for Andrew Lick you will be better.
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Hypothetically speaking, you would expect to see some improvement each year and therefore have a lower pick in each draft; this of course would require you to add more picks (2nd & 3rd rounders, possibly that year's and the following year's) to be able to move up....

 

Is that worth it - that is debatable; what isn't debatable is what to do each year when you have to give out monster contracts with a salary cap....

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Hypothetically speaking, you would expect to see some improvement each year and therefore have a lower pick in each draft; this of course would require you to add more picks (2nd & 3rd rounders, possibly that year's and the following year's) to be able to move up....

 

Is that worth it - that is debatable; what isn't debatable is what to do each year when you have to give out monster contracts with a salary cap....

 

Agreed, but my hypothesis would only be for 4 drafts. Once you have those 4 elite players you would lay off for awhile, then go back to the model once the team started slipping in the standings again.

Edited by ChevyVanMiller
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I like to think outside the box whenever possible in life. I was thinking about Whaley's move to get Watkins and how so many talking heads liked the move, but said the price of an extra 1st was too high. The Bills moved up from #9 where there were no more premium players left on the board (at least in relation to their pre-draft rankings) and snagged a player that many believe is the most talented in the entire draft.

 

Okay, so here's the outside the box thinking:

 

What if the Bills made a similar move every 2 years? Every other year the team trades the next year's #1 away to move up in the draft and grab one of the top 4 or 5 players available. Over a 6 year period that would give them 4 superstars (in theory, barring busts).

 

The alternative is to stay put and take guys like Maybin, Flowers, McCargo, Losman, etc.

 

What do you think, revolutionary idea to success or pure madness?

Well, interesting idea, but you can never let yourself get pigeon-holed into something. For instance, moving from #9 to #3 is really not all that costly. However, what if you are moving from #30 to get to that #3 spot?

 

I kind of liked Whaley's comments. He said he would do whatever he can to win now and really, that's not likely to be the same thing every time. This year had a lot of talent at OT and WR. Another draft may have more talent on the defensive side of the ball. In one draft, the guy they want won't make it to their pick and they'll need to trade up. Another draft it could be more beneficial if they move down. Just compare last year's draft to this. Both years, I think good decisions were made to put talent on this team.

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I like to think outside the box whenever possible in life. I was thinking about Whaley's move to get Watkins and how so many talking heads liked the move, but said the price of an extra 1st was too high. The Bills moved up from #9 where there were no more premium players left on the board (at least in relation to their pre-draft rankings) and snagged a player that many believe is the most talented in the entire draft.

 

Okay, so here's the outside the box thinking:

 

What if the Bills made a similar move every 2 years? Every other year the team trades the next year's #1 away to move up in the draft and grab one of the top 4 or 5 players available. Over a 6 year period that would give them 4 superstars (in theory, barring busts).

 

The alternative is to stay put and take guys like Maybin, Flowers, McCargo, Losman, etc.

 

What do you think, revolutionary idea to success or pure madness?

 

We traded up to draft McCargo.

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Per your brainstorm, it would take seven years to acquire these four superstars (and have no pick again in year 8) In eight years of gettign these superstars, as was pointed out, you would hope to have seen improvement by year 3 or 4 which means lower picks and hence the need to give up much more to move up. So that's the first problem. Second problem as also mentioned salary cap as by year eight, many of these guys will be on their second contract. Another problem once these guys are on second contract would be keeping them all.

 

If you're improving whole that superstar can make a big difference and get you over the top, you also need young cheap talent for depth too which the draft provides.

 

Agreed, but my hypothesis would only be for 4 drafts. Once you have those 4 elite players you would lay off for awhile, then go back to the model once the team started slipping in the standings again.

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I like it when there's as close to a cant miss prospect like Sammy Watkins, but guys at the top of the draft have a pretty high bust rate too. That's why you can't do it unless there is the right fit there that you feel super strongly about.

 

I love the deal for Watkins because I believe Watkins is a star. Most years, I don't think I'd have the same conviction on a player.

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Okay, so here's the outside the box thinking:

 

What if the Bills made a similar move every 2 years? Every other year the team trades the next year's #1 away to move up in the draft and grab one of the top 4 or 5 players available. Over a 6 year period that would give them 4 superstars (in theory, barring busts).

 

The alternative is to stay put and take guys like Maybin, Flowers, McCargo, Losman, etc.

 

What do you think, revolutionary idea to success or pure madness?

 

This works only with the current CBA with the rookie wage scale. This would not have been possible prior to the last CBA as teams won't be able to make 60M contracts every other year to a rookie. As these rookies start being successful, it is possible that top draft choices could become way too expensive by the next CBA

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