dave mcbride Posted May 10, 2014 Posted May 10, 2014 I'm going to assume for a second that stevie has a solid year and his pick becomes a 3. Next year, the bills should end up with the following: One second rounder 3 third rounders (one normal one; one comp for Byrd because we did not match him with an equivalent FA; and one for Stevie. 0 fourth rounders 2 fifth rounders 1 sixth rounder 1 seventh rounder That's 8 picks, and four in rounds 2 and 3. For those who criticize the Watkins trade because it kills our draft next season, I ask you to consider the evidence. Great job by Whaley.
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted May 10, 2014 Posted May 10, 2014 Don't we lose the Stevie pick for Bryce brown trade?
Buffalo Barbarian Posted May 10, 2014 Posted May 10, 2014 our pick for Stevie went to the Eagles for RB Bryce Brown doubt we get a third for Byrd, we got nothing for Levitre
Ed_Formerly_of_Roch Posted May 10, 2014 Posted May 10, 2014 (edited) OP is assuming the Stevie pick becomes a third, then the B Brown pick becomes a 2016 pick as we no longer have a 4th rounder to send to the Eagles, so then would have three 3rd round picks in 15. If it is SF' 4th rounder likely would be a rather low pick, not that high or low matters much in 4th round Edited May 10, 2014 by Ed_Formerly_of_Roch
dave mcbride Posted May 10, 2014 Author Posted May 10, 2014 Not true. We only lose the pick if it remains a 4. If Johnson has a solid season, it's a 3. We won't be able to trade a 4th to the eagles because we won't have one. That's why there's a proviso for a 2016 3rd rounder instead.
Ed_Formerly_of_Roch Posted May 10, 2014 Posted May 10, 2014 So why is that? What are the rules as to when you do or don't get picks?? From what I can figure the rules seem to be if the player left Buffalo, there are no picks period! No pick for Byrd. Sorry.
dave mcbride Posted May 10, 2014 Author Posted May 10, 2014 How do you figure? The bills didn't sign any non-cut FAS of even remotely comparable worth.
Deranged Rhino Posted May 10, 2014 Posted May 10, 2014 I'd like to see what the qualifiers are for the Stevie trade. Considering he's the same sort of receiver as the other Niner wide outs, I'm not sure there will be enough footballs in SF for him to hit the numbers he needs to to turn that pick into a 3rd. I imagine it'll be tough to accomplish.
NoSaint Posted May 10, 2014 Posted May 10, 2014 So why is that? What are the rules as to when you do or don't get picks?? From what I can figure the rules seem to be if the player left Buffalo, there are no picks period! We signed a lot of guys and lost few. The first bar you have to clear is that you have to lose more than you sign. When you are constantly swapping schemes, not drafting great etc.... You tend not to do well on the equation. How do you figure? The bills didn't sign any non-cut FAS of even remotely comparable worth. Yes, but volume of signings is the first qualifier before quality is discussed.
dave mcbride Posted May 10, 2014 Author Posted May 10, 2014 Not true. You ONLY get comp picks for when a FA leaves after his contract ends. Guys who are released don't count. It depends on whether they're cuts or true FAs. I do think quality counts, iirc. It depends on whether they're cuts or true FAs. I do think quality counts, iirc.
NoSaint Posted May 10, 2014 Posted May 10, 2014 (edited) Not true. You ONLY get comp picks for when a FA leaves after his contract ends. Guys who are released don't count. I know. I've done about a dozen threads on this annually. It's really easy. Google the process. Volume is the first qualifier. Expiring contracts we signed - spikes, Dixon, rivers, graham, and Williams. Ones we lost signed by other teams- moats carrington Byrd. If you sign more you are ineligible. If you are equal you can get a 7, based on quality gaps... If you lose more they start matching up guys and you get ones based on the value of the contracts of the unmatched players Edited May 10, 2014 by NoSaint
Hplarrm Posted May 10, 2014 Posted May 10, 2014 I gave up on predicting compensation results when the Bills were awarded a 3rd round pick for losing Friggin Lonnie. Its a black box.
maryland-bills-fan Posted May 10, 2014 Posted May 10, 2014 The compensation is for LOST free agents! Not for trades.
NoSaint Posted May 10, 2014 Posted May 10, 2014 I gave up on predicting compensation results when the Bills were awarded a 3rd round pick for losing Friggin Lonnie. Its a black box. I promise, it's incredibly simple. People project it with great accuracy for a reason. Fans repeating that it's a great mystery just makes it so no one takes the time to learn the process which isn't actually hard....
HurlyBurly51 Posted May 10, 2014 Posted May 10, 2014 We'll have ammo to move back into the first if we want to.
Manther Posted May 10, 2014 Posted May 10, 2014 I'm going to assume for a second that stevie has a solid year and his pick becomes a 3. Next year, the bills should end up with the following: One second rounder 3 third rounders (one normal one; one comp for Byrd because we did not match him with an equivalent FA; and one for Stevie. 0 fourth rounders 2 fifth rounders 1 sixth rounder 1 seventh rounder That's 8 picks, and four in rounds 2 and 3. For those who criticize the Watkins trade because it kills our draft next season, I ask you to consider the evidence. Great job by Whaley. We could lose a 4th for Bryce. Maybe a pick the following year. We do NOT get a pick for Byrd.
Hplarrm Posted May 10, 2014 Posted May 10, 2014 The thing which is likely to make the 2015 draft a horrible thing is the overhype and often silly speculation about who we will select with our 1st round choice. With no1st rounder next year, it actually may be quite nice as any speculation will be quite silly. On the other hand, the absence of a 1st round pick will be no damper whatsoever and the hype just spins off into madness. I'm going to assume for a second that stevie has a solid year and his pick becomes a 3. Next year, the bills should end up with the following: One second rounder 3 third rounders (one normal one; one comp for Byrd because we did not match him with an equivalent FA; and one for Stevie. 0 fourth rounders 2 fifth rounders 1 sixth rounder 1 seventh rounder That's 8 picks, and four in rounds 2 and 3. For those who criticize the Watkins trade because it kills our draft next season, I ask you to consider the evidence. Great job by Whaley.
dave mcbride Posted May 10, 2014 Author Posted May 10, 2014 Ok, I googled it. Here's what bleacher report, which we can't link to, says: "Compensatory draft pick determinations are based on the salary, playing time and postseason honors of the free agents each team lost during the previous offseason. For example, the Pittsburgh Steelers should receive one of the top compensatory picks after losing wide receiver Mike Wallace to the Miami Dolphins via free agency." So honestly, I don't know.
NoSaint Posted May 10, 2014 Posted May 10, 2014 Ok, I googled it. Here's what bleacher report, which we can't link to, says: "Compensatory draft pick determinations are based on the salary, playing time and postseason honors of the free agents each team lost during the previous offseason. For example, the Pittsburgh Steelers should receive one of the top compensatory picks after losing wide receiver Mike Wallace to the Miami Dolphins via free agency." So honestly, I don't know. Because you used bleacher. Use any of the ones that regularly predict the picks months early.
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