Coach Tuesday Posted May 11, 2014 Posted May 11, 2014 Don't underestimate the marketing motives behind this deal. The Bills are desperate for some marketable stars, esp with the ownership transition and need to move product this year. And oh, they just happen to have a marketing wiz running operations. Not that I don't like the player - I do. Just saying there are a lot of factors in play here.
Buffalo_Stampede Posted May 11, 2014 Posted May 11, 2014 Don't underestimate the marketing motives behind this deal. The Bills are desperate for some marketable stars, esp with the ownership transition and need to move product this year. And oh, they just happen to have a marketing wiz running operations. Not that I don't like the player - I do. Just saying there are a lot of factors in play here. If Marketing was their goal they would drafted Johnny Football or in the past Tebow.
dave mcbride Posted May 11, 2014 Posted May 11, 2014 (edited) Data show inverse relationship between drafting receivers and wins When Tom Brady won Super Bowls, it was not with Randy Moss or Wes Welker. It was when the team invested money in its defense instead. When Eli Manning won his two Super Bowls, remember who his WRs were? Two over-the-hill guys (Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer) in 2007, and undrafted rookie Victor Cruz playing in his first full season in 2011. And the biggest knock on the Seahwaks heading into their Super Bowl with the Broncos was that they didn’t have enough receiver talent to keep up with Peyton’s loaded corps. How did that work out? http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/nfl/2014-05-07/nfl-draft-2014-wide-receivers-sammy-watkins-rams-wr-analysis Um, not true. The Giants spent a #1 on Hakeem Nicks, who had 1200 yards in that 2011 Super Bowl season. In the Giants' four playoff games in 2011, Nicks was spectacular: 28 receptions for 444 yards and 4 TDs. That is, to repeat, spectacular. (Extrapolated over a full season, that rate leaves him with 112 catches, 1776 yards, and 16 TDs.) They also spent a 2 on Toomer, and while they didn't draft Burris, he was a major FA acquisition for them (and he was a #5 overall). The Seahawks spent a first, fourth, and seventh round pick on their most talented receiver, Percy Harvin. Harvin missed just about all of the season, but was a difference maker in the Super Bowl. In the Seahawks' playoff game against the Saints, they moved the ball well when Harvin was in the game. When he went out, their offense went south and NO almost came back from a huge deficit. Edited May 11, 2014 by dave mcbride
starrymessenger Posted May 11, 2014 Posted May 11, 2014 Perfectly stated. The pompom waving crowd doesn't seem to understand this. Last years class is not comparable to this years. Any of the top 6-7 guys could have been # 1s last year. Just look at the players not the draft order. Would anyone credibly compare DJ with Watkins as a prospect. I wouldn't.
papazoid Posted May 12, 2014 Posted May 12, 2014 I'm always going to post my opinion, whether it's approval or criticism of the Bills. I'm a Bills fan until death, but I will never be a blind cheerleader. If reading negative opinions about the team affects you that deeply, you're going to have a bad time regardless of which site you visit. As stated above, the Julio Jones trade is only used as a comparison because they are both WRs - the circumstances are completely different. Atlanta was a playoff team looking for the last piece of the puzzle to win a SB, and they already had their franchise QB in place. The pick they gave up in the first round was a low pick and at the time next year's pick was also expected to be a low one. A better comparison is the Dion Jordan trade last year. Miami moved up from #12 (lower than us) to #3 (higher than us) and it only cost them a future 2nd rounder. Cleveland knew we were desperate to win now and transitioning owners, and they took advantage of the situation and dragged Whaley out behind the woodshed on this deal. If EJ snaps his leg in preseason or doesn't pan out (I know, I know - that's impossible, right?) we are in big trouble and we may not have the ammunition to remedy the problem in next year's draft. JMHO of course. USA Today says buffalo's first round pick next year will be 4th overall in their 2015 mock draft http://q.usatoday.com/2014/05/11/2015-nfl-mock-draft-florida-state-qb-jameis-winston-slips-out-of-top-5/
Bill from NYC Posted May 13, 2014 Posted May 13, 2014 (edited) USA Today says buffalo's first round pick next year will be 4th overall in their 2015 mock draft http://q.usatoday.com/2014/05/11/2015-nfl-mock-draft-florida-state-qb-jameis-winston-slips-out-of-top-5/ If EJ doesn't improve, this prediction is not at all out of the realm of possibility. And this is why I frowned on the trade. NOT because Watkins isn't "good." He could be good or even GREAT but if the Bills lose football games it is a moot point. Edited May 13, 2014 by Bill from NYC
Dawgg Posted May 13, 2014 Posted May 13, 2014 The Falcons moved up 21 spots -- from 27th to sixth -- to select Jones. Here is deal that the Falcons swung with the Cleveland Browns for Jones back in 2011: Falcons received: 2011 first-round selection (No. 6; used to select Julio Jones) Browns received: 2011 first-round selection (No. 27; later traded to Kansas City; Browns moved up to No. 21 to select Phil Taylor) 2011 second-round selection (No. 59; used to select Greg Little) 2011 fourth-round selection (No. 124; used to select Owen Marecic) 2012 first-round selection (No. 22; used to select Brandon Weeden) 2012 fourth-round selection (No. 118; later traded to Minnesota) Meanwhile, the Bills moved up five spots on Thursday night to select Watkins: Bills received: 2014 first-round selection (No. 4; used to select Sammy Watkins) Browns received: 2014 first-round selection (No. 9; later traded to Minnesota; Browns moved up to No. 8 to select Justin Gilbert) 2015 first-round selection 2015 fourth-round selection Essentially, the Falcons moved up 16 more spots in the first round than the Bills did, with the difference in the trades being Atlanta's current-year second- and fourth-round selections included in the deal. I heard the Browns initially wanted this years first and third round picks and next years first ,Whaley called their bluff ( still on the phone with just minutes remaining ) and the rest is history.... We already got next years 4th rounder back in the Stevie Johnson trade to the Niners. Yawn. The Falcons were a playoff team, thus reducing the risk of giving up next year's first rounder. The Bills are a team coming off a 6-10 season with a unproven QB. The Falcons took a prudent risk given the information they had at the time and given where they were as a team. The Bills took a stupid risk given the information they had at the time and given where they were as a team.
Nitro Posted May 13, 2014 Posted May 13, 2014 (edited) We'll just agree to disagree. That $1 analogy is nowhere close to the situation. It's not a lottery ticket gamble, it's a 50-50 gamble. Don't know where you got the origninal quote attributed to me...but I did not write it. FYI. Edited May 13, 2014 by Nitro
Kelly the Dog Posted May 13, 2014 Posted May 13, 2014 Don't know where you got the origninal quote attributed to me...but I did not write it. FYI. I see that now. Really strange. I was responding directly to QCity and not you. His quote is a few up from mine, he was responding to me, and your name isn't even in his post. I have no idea how that happened. Oh well.
johnwalter Posted May 13, 2014 Posted May 13, 2014 But we got the 4th back. So we only 'Gave up' Next years 1st. And Who says we need it or won't get it back? this is not a valid argument. "we got the 4th back" by back giving up other assets in an unrelated trade, so this may not be factored into the cost/benefit analysis of the cleveland trade being discussed.
dave mcbride Posted May 13, 2014 Posted May 13, 2014 (edited) To be perfectly honest, passing judgment on this trade is just stupid. It's no better than a post-draft day grade from Pete Prisco. Let's see how Watkins does and the Bills do and then circle back. Seriously. It's really tiresome. Neither Dawgg, Kelly, Bill, nor I - nor anyone else - knows if this was a good trade or not right now. A little humility with regard to our prognosticating skills would be welcome. Edited May 13, 2014 by dave mcbride
papazoid Posted May 13, 2014 Posted May 13, 2014 To be perfectly honest, passing judgment on this trade is just stupid. It's no better than a post-draft day grade from Pete Prisco. Let's see how Watkins does and the Bills do and then circle back. Seriously. It's really tiresome. Neither Dawgg, Kelly, Bill, nor I - nor anyone else - knows if this was a good trade or not right now. A little humility with regard to our prognosticating skills would be welcome. of course it is fair game to have an "initial" judgement/reaction to this trade. just realize it is NOT the "final" judgement which won't be known for years. take the Julio jones trade, the initial judgement was each team did well. the current judgement is that it is totally lopsided in Atlanta's favor as Julio became a pro bowler and Cleveland whiffed on their draft picks. Buffalo got fleeced when looking solely at the draft value chart. Watkins must become a pro bowler for it to be worth the extra 1st & 4th round picks they gave up irregardless if Cleveland hits or misses on the draft picks they got.
Green Lightning Posted May 13, 2014 Posted May 13, 2014 There's no such word as irregardless. Regardless, the only true answer is that time will tell.
Nitro Posted May 13, 2014 Posted May 13, 2014 Perspective. The draft, even the first round, is a gamble. If the Bills make the play offs, next year's first will be at least 20th. Here is the past 10 #20 selection: 2005 Marcus Spears DE LSU 2006 Tamba Hali DE Penn St. 2007 Aaron Ross CB Texas 2008 Aqib Talib CB CB 2009 Brandon Pettigrew TE Oklahoma State 2010 Kareen Jackson CB Alabama 2011 Adrian Clayborn DE Iowa 2012 Kendall Wright WR Baylor 2013 Kyle Long OG Oregon It is a mixed bag of good and bad. Time will tell if the trade was a success, failure or a wash.
truth on hold Posted May 13, 2014 Posted May 13, 2014 Perspective. The draft, even the first round, is a gamble. If the Bills make the play offs, next year's first will be at least 20th. Here is the past 10 #20 selection: 2005 Marcus Spears DE LSU 2006 Tamba Hali DE Penn St. 2007 Aaron Ross CB Texas 2008 Aqib Talib CB CB 2009 Brandon Pettigrew TE Oklahoma State 2010 Kareen Jackson CB Alabama 2011 Adrian Clayborn DE Iowa 2012 Kendall Wright WR Baylor 2013 Kyle Long OG Oregon It is a mixed bag of good and bad. Time will tell if the trade was a success, failure or a wash. I think you'll find that pretty much any level of draft ... pretty much mixed bag. But pundits are acting like we gave up a sure 1st ballot HoF'er in 2015
Luka Posted May 13, 2014 Posted May 13, 2014 Bills get young QB a once every 5-10 year prospect to throw the ball to, bitching and complaining ensues. Not surprising. The Bills gave up alot less to get as good of a receiver. A true #1 guy the Bills have lacked since Moulds.
TC in St. Louis Posted May 13, 2014 Posted May 13, 2014 If you examine EJ's first season, I think you'll find he did a pretty good job. When he was healthy, he had some very solid games, and he did have some nice deep throws. He's a great athlete. I think he came back a week too early for the Pittsburgh game. That was rough. Look what he did to the Jets....and Carolina. Compare his first season with Troy Aikman 1-15. Joe Montana didn't get rolling till his 3rd year. EJ's got great size, is super smart, and is dedicated to his team. I think the future with him is bright. We just drafted 3 gargantuan and talented human beings to add to a Pro Bowl calibre center and left tackle. We will build a wall in front of EJ. The year the Skins pasted the Bills in the Super Bowl Mark Rypien was sacked 8 times. All year. That's what we're building here. A giant wall to keep EJ safe from harm. And our defense is going to be better. Bring it, bitches.
Dean Cain Posted May 13, 2014 Posted May 13, 2014 Watkins will be better than our #9 pick, #1 2015, & #4 2015, combine.
KollegeStudnet Posted May 13, 2014 Posted May 13, 2014 (edited) In the long run, this team secured one of the top talents, top offensive playmaker and the premier blue chip WR of the draft. Overall, for it to make sense. The Bills will have to have a 10-6 or 11-5 record in 2014, to make Cleveland's traded first pick seem realistically feasible in the trade (pick in the 25-32 range). I like the pick. Proven route runner, playmaker and has dominated at high levels. What's not to love by snagging a talent like that? Edited May 13, 2014 by KollegeStudnet
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