maryland-bills-fan Posted May 9, 2014 Author Posted May 9, 2014 For real. We have one of the best RB duos, now with Watkins one of the best WR corps, a fairly excellent defense and we can patch the OL and TE position in the draft. EJ has to be about as good as Andy Dalton to get into the playoffs. Even Christian Ponder got into the playoffs behind a strong run game and decent defense. We can do it. Something I wonder about is the following. What is going on with Harrison? They haven't done a medical discharge thing on him and he looked like a viable starter at LEFF offensive tackle last year. Are the Bills hiding that he is the in-house replacement for Pears, just to blow smoke in everybody's face? Secondly, J.J. Unga l(6'5" #320) looked like a monster in what little I saw of him last year. Are these guys the sleepers and maybe we aren't really thinking o-line in this draft?
Big C Posted May 9, 2014 Posted May 9, 2014 Something I wonder about is the following. What is going on with Harrison? They haven't done a medical discharge thing on him and he looked like a viable starter at LEFF offensive tackle last year. Are the Bills hiding that he is the in-house replacement for Pears, just to blow smoke in everybody's face? Secondly, J.J. Unga l(6'5" #320) looked like a monster in what little I saw of him last year. Are these guys the sleepers and maybe we aren't really thinking o-line in this draft? Well, they have said that Chris Williams was brought in to play LG, but he was a tackle in college and played RT for some of his time in the NFL. Maybe there is something else we're not privy to. I can't imagine them not addressing OL at all in the draft, but maybe they are looking TE or DE in round 2. After last year's LG fiasco, I can't imagine them being overconfident in their on-hand talent.
K-9 Posted May 9, 2014 Posted May 9, 2014 Revisionist history ? --- That 1987 team had Conlan, Odomes, Bentley, Metz, Bruce, Hull, Kelly, Talley, Wolford, etc. etc. --- they went 7-8 and once they added Thurman in '88, they went 12-4 and the rest, as they say is history. So, MAYBE you could argue that Thurman was the final piece and Bennett was the 2nd from final piece, but hell, you have a team with a HoF QB, HoF DE, HoF WR and pieces like Conlan, Odomes, Wolford, Talley, Hull etc. --- PUHLLLEEASSE -- that 1987 team was VERY CLOSE ---- the Bennett trade at the time was viewed universally as a BOLD move by POLIAN ---- not a reckless move ---revisionist history, check the facts --- run Polian out of town ? --- I don't even know where to start on that one Revisionist history ? --- That 1987 team had Conlan, Odomes, Bentley, Metz, Bruce, Hull, Kelly, Talley, Wolford, etc. etc. --- they went 7-8 and once they added Thurman in '88, they went 12-4 and the rest, as they say is history. So, MAYBE you could argue that Thurman was the final piece and Bennett was the 2nd from final piece, but hell, you have a team with a HoF QB, HoF DE, HoF WR and pieces like Conlan, Odomes, Wolford, Talley, Hull etc. --- PUHLLLEEASSE -- that 1987 team was VERY CLOSE ---- the Bennett trade at the time was viewed universally as a BOLD move by POLIAN ---- not a reckless move ---revisionist history, check the facts --- run Polian out of town ? --- I don't even know where to start on that one They were 4-12 in 1986 and were half way through a strike-shortened season in '87 when Polian pulled the trigger. There were more than a fair share of naysayers, just like today, that immediately concluded Polian gave up way too much and more than a few thought he should be fired for giving away the farm on an unproven team with holes yet to fill. TT wasn't even a gleam in anybody's eye and I would argue that the acquisition of Lofton was the final piece. Yes, they had talent, especially on defense, just like today's team, but to suggest that the city and fans were on board with the trade en masse, IS revisionist. It's just easy to forget all the pissed off people 27 years after the fact who don't care to admit it now because of how it all turned out with that squad. The larger point is, NOBODY can even begin to determine anything about this trade. The ONLY thing that can be determined is that we were willing to pull the trigger to acquire the best offensive talent in the draft. Just like Polian did when he acquired the best defensive talent in he '87 draft. GO BILLS!!!
purple haze Posted May 9, 2014 Posted May 9, 2014 A few thoughts: -Watkins is going to be a star. -If they get to the playoffs it isn't too much because the pick will be in the low 20's in all likelihood. -If EJ develops it won't matter because this team will have lots of talent. They can address needs in FA next year if necessary plus have a 2nd & 3rd where they can find 2 starters. I do not expect this team to need more than 2 starters next year. If 1 of those is a RB they can get one of the best in the draft in the 2nd (probably not Gurley but lots of value for RB in the 2nd). -As of right now I think that they could use 2 OL (1 in, 1 out), a DE, a LB, a TE and a punter). They still have 5 more picks in this draft plus a trade chip in Stevie. While the price was high IF EJ develops than they will be fine. If they are without a QB and without a 1st they are going to need to explore veteran options (Cutler, Romo, Alex Smith, Cousins, and even Matt Ryan) are guys that I could see potentially becoming available. Their other option is to add another QB at some point in this draft and who knows that guy may develop. I would love Aaron Murray but I don't think that they should take a QB before the 4th. I think Logan Thomas would be more of an option the Bills would look at. Great arm strength, size and mobility. Inconsistent mechanics and results. A guy who, based on physical talent, would be a better development prospect than Tuel. But not consistent enough for folks to think he would threaten EJ’s job when camp starts. But could be developed into a trade chip three years from now or be the option if EJ goes belly up.
Billsguy Posted May 9, 2014 Posted May 9, 2014 Many draft pundits claim that this trade was poorly done by the Bills and that they gave up too much to move up. The actual difference in points between #9 and #4 is {1800-1350) = 450 points. The Bills swapped the first round picks and in addition gave up the 2015 first and fourth round picks. How should we evaluate the cost for next year’s picks.? The usual assumption is that the Bills would finish the 2015 season with the same draft position, so using that criteria and the “standard assessment” of discounting next year’s picks by 50% of their value, then the Bills spend 717 points in order to move up 450 points. A bad deal. The view of Whaley is that the Bills will have a much better record next year, so the deal is not so bad. Here is the cost of next year’s 1st and 4th round picks [@ 50% discount] compared to possible draft slots that the Bills might attain next year. 2015 Finish ......……value of 1st & 4th .......................…..overpayment .......................................................overpayment in terms of a draft pick ============================================= 9…….....717…..…....267…………….top 3rd round pick 10……....691…..…....241 11……...655….....….215 12……...639….....…189………………middle 3rd round pick 13……...613……....163 14.……..587….....…137 15……...561…….....111……………..top 4th round pick 16…..….535……......85 17…..…509…….......59……………..~ middle 4th round pick 18..…….483……......33……………….middle 5th round pick 19……...470….....….20………………middle 5th round pick 20……...456…....……6……………….lower 7th round pick 21……...430…..…..-20 22…...…419……....-31 23……...408……...-42 24……..397……....-53 25……..386…....…-64 26……..375…...….-75 27….….365…….....-86 28……..354……....-96 29……..344.…….-107 30……..333..……-117 31……..323…..…-128 32……..317…….-133 So for the Bills to break even on the draft value chart, they would have to get to the #20th best record (Cardinals) with about a 10-4 record- win 6 more games. If they go 8-8 and match Pittsburg #15 spot, then the overpayment is a pick at the top of the 4th round. These are not gamebreakers- if the Bills improve their record. Another question is whether it was a good idea to give up a chance to draft an extra player in the first and third round next year. I don't think so. I believe the Bills overpaid, but the men who made the deal (Brandon and Whaley) will likely be gone next year when the Bills have no 1st or 4th rounder. The new owner will most likely bring his own management team and they will have to deal with the empty cupboard. Party today and don't worry about tomorrow. A recipe for success? I don't think so. A 6-10 team gambling like this is not a smart move, but it does smell like desperation. Desperation is an emotional response and not an intellectual one. I would have drafted with my head and not my heart. There is a reason why some teams always manage to fail and others always manage to succeed. Look at Jax drafting Bortles at #3. Does it sound smart or desperate? Jax stinks for a reason and they proved it again. Top draft picks are the lifeblood of an NFL team. If you give them away, you won't succeed. Washington suffered greatly by giving all those top picks to the Rams to get Robert Griffin. It is a bad strategy on the whole.
OCinBuffalo Posted May 9, 2014 Posted May 9, 2014 (edited) Can we just call the "we just traded away our 100% lock to replace EJ, by trading away next year's 1st" argument out for approaching the ridiculous? The 1st we traded away had a 10% chance of functioning as designed, and therefore isn't even close to a "lock". 1. Worst case EJ play scenario: It's not gonna be top 5. It's probably not even gonna be top 10. So, the notion that it could be automagically turned into a 10 year answer at QB is franky: silly. There's a chance it could have been. Yeah: a 10% chance. So many things have to go right, or actually, wrong, for that pick to have had a viable chance of getting us an Andrew Luck, it's practically worthless to even consider. Too many dependencies. Too many more likely outcomes. 2. Spare me the Russel Wilson/Colin Kaepernick argument. Russel Wilson was taken with a 3rd, not a 1st. Kap = 2nd. We still have our 3rd, and 2nd...but not our 4th. Howard Simon trotted out this have-it-both-ways argument this morning. You can't talk about later pick QBs, and ingore that we still have the later picks they were taken at, at the same time. 3. Even if we did take a QB, and it was a "lock"...I have one thing to say to you: Butt-Fumble. Sanchez was a Top 5 "lock". There's no way anyone can guarantee that the guy we might get in the top 5, with the 1st we traded, will be better than EJ. And, if you can? Then that guy is going #1-2 overall. What realistic chance does this team have of going 1-15 this year, and thus being in line for #1-2 overall in 2015? See? When you look at this in terms of probability? 10% chance is being generous. So enough of pretending that we "gave away our EJ replacement" pick. There's a 90% chance that is false. Edited May 9, 2014 by OCinBuffalo
MikeSpeed Posted May 9, 2014 Posted May 9, 2014 As a fan I feel like we mortgaged the future for a WR because it is a big risk. But if I were Whaley I would have done the same thing. He could care less what happens next year because he might not be here next year. Therefore he would put all his chips in the pot and even borrow some that he doesn't have to worry about paying back (next years picks). What does he have to lose? A rookie QB this years most likely isn't going to help the team this year get to the playoffs anyways, so go all in on EJ in the hope that he becomes really good. Get weapons and do whatever to make the team a good as you can with what you have to work with. If the Bills make the playoffs the trade was worth it and you can deal with next years draft next year. If they don't make the playoffs most likely the new owner will replace him anyways, so why would he care that the Bills don't have a 1 and 4 round pick next year. So as a fan I'm holding my breath, but because I understand the logic involved I'm not upset.
scotty0424 Posted May 9, 2014 Posted May 9, 2014 It's a high price, but I'm glad the Bills did it. The conservative, plodding one-piece-at-a-time approach is not getting it done, a lot like a Ryan Fitzpatrick offense. This move is the Bills stretching the field, their deep ball. They're gambling that Sammy Watkins can bring a fire to the team that's been missing. They've got the weapons, it's now up to the coaches to make it happen.
CardinalScotts Posted May 9, 2014 Posted May 9, 2014 (edited) I was shocked they were able to keep the second rounder, our first round pick next year will be Sammy Watkins 21 years old coming with a year of NFL experience. As Bills fans we become so used to the draft our time to part take- forget winning i want my selections! For me you can take the selections I want to win Edited May 9, 2014 by CardinalScotts
ICanSleepWhenI'mDead Posted May 9, 2014 Posted May 9, 2014 I think the rationale is sort of a "time value of money" type thing: Would you rather have $1 million right now, or $1.2 million next year? Obviously, $1 million cash right now is worth more than a promise to pay $1 million next year. . . . Actually, $1 million cash right now is worth more than $1 million in cash next year because of inflation. You don't even have to compare (1) cash in hand, with (2) a mere promise to pay the same amount of cash in the future, to reach that conclusion. Unless you think the NFL will fold before next year's draft, the comparison is between a pick this year and a pick next year - - not between a pick this year and a mere promise that you'll be allowed to make a pick next year. But the whole "time value of money" thing is a false analogy. Money has value because you can exchange it for stuff. Money has "time value" because $100 will usually buy you less pencils a year from now than it will today, because inflation will make the cost of each pencil higher a year from now. But draft picks are different. The #1 overall pick in this year's draft can be exchanged for the best player in this year's draft. The #1 overall pick in next year's draft can be exchanged for the best player in next year's draft. So unless you have some reason to think that the overall talent level of football players is declining each year, the #1 overall pick next year is generally worth just as much as the #1 overall pick this year (in terms of the amount of talent it can add to your team). Sometimes conventional wisdom is a whole lot more conventional than it is wise.
OCinBuffalo Posted May 9, 2014 Posted May 9, 2014 Actually, $1 million cash right now is worth more than $1 million in cash next year because of inflation. You don't even have to compare (1) cash in hand, with (2) a mere promise to pay the same amount of cash in the future, to reach that conclusion. Unless you think the NFL will fold before next year's draft, the comparison is between a pick this year and a pick next year - - not between a pick this year and a mere promise that you'll be allowed to make a pick next year. But the whole "time value of money" thing is a false analogy. Money has value because you can exchange it for stuff. Money has "time value" because $100 will usually buy you less pencils a year from now than it will today, because inflation will make the cost of each pencil higher a year from now. But draft picks are different. The #1 overall pick in this year's draft can be exchanged for the best player in this year's draft. The #1 overall pick in next year's draft can be exchanged for the best player in next year's draft. So unless you have some reason to think that the overall talent level of football players is declining each year, the #1 overall pick next year is generally worth just as much as the #1 overall pick this year (in terms of the amount of talent it can add to your team). Sometimes conventional wisdom is a whole lot more conventional than it is wise. Yes. The value of the pick is absolute. However, who posesses that #1 overall pick: changes. Same thing for every other #1 pick. So, pretending that there is a set value of our #1 pick....next year? Doing it wrong. We don't know, and won't know, the RELATIVE value of the pick we've given away until next December. It's a bet. You may be betting that the value is ~10 overall. Someone else would take that bet, and bet against you. As with any bet, we can't know the outcome, until we know the outcome: that's what makes it a bet. However, if you want to bet that the value of the pick we traded away is top 5? I will take that bet right friggin now! My wager: 100 naked Youtube pushups!
voodoo poonani Posted May 9, 2014 Posted May 9, 2014 I don't know in which thread this belongs, but what does Sammy Watkins have to do to justify the trade and the pick? 1600 yards and 16 touchdowns (100 yards and 1 TD per game)? 1200 yards and 12 touchdowns (75 yards and 0.75 TD per game)? 800 yards and 8 touchdowns (50 yards and 0.5 TD per game)? Be the difference maker in 4 games? Be the difference maker in 3 games? Be the difference maker in 2 games? Be the difference maker in 1 game?
Matt in KC Posted May 9, 2014 Posted May 9, 2014 I don't know in which thread this belongs, but what does Sammy Watkins have to do to justify the trade and the pick? 1600 yards and 16 touchdowns (100 yards and 1 TD per game)? 1200 yards and 12 touchdowns (75 yards and 0.75 TD per game)? 800 yards and 8 touchdowns (50 yards and 0.5 TD per game)? Be the difference maker in 4 games? Be the difference maker in 3 games? Be the difference maker in 2 games? Be the difference maker in 1 game? 1200 yards and 12 touchdowns (75 yards and 0.75 TD per game)? Be the difference maker in 2 games The above in his rookie year should shut people up (though of course won't for everyone).
Mr. WEO Posted May 9, 2014 Posted May 9, 2014 The "mortgaging the future" talk is a riot. It has no meaning. Giving up a 1st round pick (who cares about a future 4th) on a team with a spotty draft history in the first round for the top offensive player in the draft is the definition of value. There were a ton of posters who were happy to blow a top 9 pick on an O-lineman! And the 4th best one at that! Now there are complaints about spending an extra top pick on an actual impact player at an actual impact position? Crazy.
voodoo poonani Posted May 9, 2014 Posted May 9, 2014 1200 yards and 12 touchdowns (75 yards and 0.75 TD per game)? Be the difference maker in 2 games OK, taking last season's record*, that gets us to 8-8. Probably not enough to make the playoffs even if they're expanded. *I acknowledge the team isn't the same (FA, Draft, injuries), but the same is for the other 31 teams who all consider themselves to have improved.
John from Riverside Posted May 9, 2014 Posted May 9, 2014 OK, taking last season's record*, that gets us to 8-8. Probably not enough to make the playoffs even if they're expanded. *I acknowledge the team isn't the same (FA, Draft, injuries), but the same is for the other 31 teams who all consider themselves to have improved. That would mean something if they hadnt already made a lot of moves on a young team to improve it...... Watkins isnt the only move...... Free Agents? Trade? Young team getting a year more mature?
reddogblitz Posted May 9, 2014 Posted May 9, 2014 This pick is out of desperation for Brandon to prove to new owner that team is a playoff caliber, he doubled down to make playoffs now and mortgage a bit of this franchise's future. I think it was too much and I question the motivation. While I appreciate that the FO is now trying to win now, it does kindof tick me off a little that it took Ralph dieing for them to figure that out.
BobbyC81 Posted May 9, 2014 Posted May 9, 2014 Teams that win championships don't sit around and just take what comes to them you have to gamble once in a while . Whaley & company have just shown the Bills fan base that things have truly changed at the GM level & i'm liking what i've seen so far . The current regime probably isn't concerned beyond this year. With an impending sale, if it did happen soon and get approved in October, their jobs are probably safe for the 2014 season, unless they start like 0-6. Beyond that, the new owner may want to clean house and hire his own people, especially if the playoff drought continued. Looks like they may be going for it.
maryland-bills-fan Posted May 9, 2014 Author Posted May 9, 2014 Actually, $1 million cash right now is worth more than $1 million in cash next year because of inflation. You don't even have to compare (1) cash in hand, with (2) a mere promise to pay the same amount of cash in the future, to reach that conclusion. Unless you think the NFL will fold before next year's draft, the comparison is between a pick this year and a pick next year - - not between a pick this year and a mere promise that you'll be allowed to make a pick next year. But the whole "time value of money" thing is a false analogy. Money has value because you can exchange it for stuff. Money has "time value" because $100 will usually buy you less pencils a year from now than it will today, because inflation will make the cost of each pencil higher a year from now. But draft picks are different. The #1 overall pick in this year's draft can be exchanged for the best player in this year's draft. The #1 overall pick in next year's draft can be exchanged for the best player in next year's draft. So unless you have some reason to think that the overall talent level of football players is declining each year, the #1 overall pick next year is generally worth just as much as the #1 overall pick this year (in terms of the amount of talent it can add to your team). Sometimes conventional wisdom is a whole lot more conventional than it is wise. Hey, inflation rates are small compared to interest rates.
GA BILLS FAN Posted May 9, 2014 Posted May 9, 2014 They were 4-12 in 1986 and were half way through a strike-shortened season in '87 when Polian pulled the trigger. There were more than a fair share of naysayers, just like today, that immediately concluded Polian gave up way too much and more than a few thought he should be fired for giving away the farm on an unproven team with holes yet to fill. TT wasn't even a gleam in anybody's eye and I would argue that the acquisition of Lofton was the final piece. Yes, they had talent, especially on defense, just like today's team, but to suggest that the city and fans were on board with the trade en masse, IS revisionist. It's just easy to forget all the pissed off people 27 years after the fact who don't care to admit it now because of how it all turned out with that squad. The larger point is, NOBODY can even begin to determine anything about this trade. The ONLY thing that can be determined is that we were willing to pull the trigger to acquire the best offensive talent in the draft. Just like Polian did when he acquired the best defensive talent in he '87 draft. GO BILLS!!! There are several BIG differences between the two situations, Bennett trade and Watkins trade -- (1) Bills knew back then that they had a franchise QB, their were NO QUESTIONS about that. There are still tons of questons about EJ. That is my biggest problem with this trade. If EJ had played like Russell Wilson, or Kaepernick or Luck -- I'd say, roll the dice, we are close --- there is more evidence to suggest EJ is NOT the guy, than he is the guy. So, why not build the rest of the team -- see that EJ proves he's the guy and then go BOLD next draft ?
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