Did the Bills pay too much to move up for Watkins?

[YoloinOhio]

We all WANT this, some of us are just looking at this more rationally, you can call it being negative or you can open your eyes and properly evaluate this trade and scratch your head. The GM said there wasn't much difference between Watkins and the next best WR, so why give up a #1 ? Do you really think EJ has proven that he's a franchise QB and we should roll dice to give him that last piece ? I applauded the move a few years back when Atlanta traded up to grab Julio --- but Atlanta had a solid O Line, a HoF TE, an All-Pro WR and a stud RB and they were a piece or two away --- that's the difference between BOLD and RECKLESS. Think back to the late 80's when Polian went after Cornelius Bennett, because he WAS the last piece to a near dynasty -- we had our core players --- BOLD vs. RECKLESS. It's not that reckless can't work, it's just that it usually doesn't. I'm thinking about this rationally

Because IMO, the Bills are not going to use it on a QB anyway. I truly think they are not planning on drafting a QB in the 1st next year and will give EJ more than this year. I think they plan to help him with weapons like Pitt did with Big Ben rather than to assume he won't work out. I also think that whatever they planned to use that pick on next year, they are prepared to pay for in FA. I don't see it as reckless, I see it as a way to get an elite player that does not show up in every draft.

[FGD]

Looks like a good player, but hate the trade. They need bodies that can play. Their lines, especially the O-Line is weak, very little at LB and Safety and their D-Line is not that effective, especially with Darius in limbo. All this talk of being bold or cautious misses the point they need to prove they can identify talent in multiple rounds. I'd have been more impressed if they managed to trade down and gotten additional picks. This is the kind of trade to make if the Bills had a better foundation and were a pain in the ass to play against but finished 8-8, 9-7 consistently. If you are not sure about a second year QB you don't give up the pick most likely needed to draft his replacement. This is Spiller all over again. A potentially fine player drafted by the wrong team. Imagine Fred and CJ with a line that gives them a clean hole to run through without all the enemy contact in the backfield. Imagine a defense that allows the home team to score less than 21-24 consistently. Even if this guy is a total freak wide receivers do not turn 6-10 into 10-6 unless the rest of the draft is A+ and the stay really healthy. The Bills are in no position to grab a brass ring who is not a killer D-Lineman or a QB.

[YoloinOhio]

Looks like a good player, but hate the trade. They need bodies that can play. Their lines, especially the O-Line is weak, very little at LB and Safety and their D-Line is not that effective, especially with Darius in limbo. All this talk of being bold or cautious misses the point they need to prove they can identify talent in multiple rounds. I'd have been more impressed if they managed to trade down and gotten additional picks. This is the kind of trade to make if the Bills had a better foundation and were a pain in the ass to play against but finished 8-8, 9-7 consistently. If you are not sure about a second year QB you don't give up the pick most likely needed to draft his replacement. This is Spiller all over again. A potentially fine player drafted by the wrong team. Imagine Fred and CJ with a line that gives them a clean hole to run through without all the enemy contact in the backfield. Imagine a defense that allows the home team to score less than 21-24 consistently. Even if this guy is a total freak wide receivers do not turn 6-10 into 10-6 unless the rest of the draft is A+ and the stay really healthy. The Bills are in no position to grab a brass ring who is not a killer D-Lineman or a QB.

I think they are less uncertain than the fans.

[maryland-bills-fan]

If it's true that the talent in this years draft runs much deeper than the talent expected to be available in next year's draft, then you can make a rational argument that, at least for this particular year, "a 1st next year is worth a 2nd this year."

But that's not what you're saying. By saying it's a "general rule," you're claiming that you should always discount next year's picks by 1 round.

The OP also claims that picks in a draft 1 year later should be discounted - - by 50% of their point value on the trade chart.

I realize that both of you may have read these claims somewhere, but what's the logic behind that thinking? Why is a pick a year in the future ALWAYS worth so much less than a pick now? I'm curious about the rationale, because that makes no sense to me.

I can see how future picks are always worth less to the GM, because he might get fired before next year's draft comes around. But if you aren't a Bills employee, how does that make any sense?

Do Olympic athletes win gold medals with successively slower times every four years? Is the general population of college age kids becoming gradually less athletically capable over time?

Please give me some rational explanation for why a future pick in any given round should ALWAYS be evaluated at a discount compared to this year's pick in the same round. I don't think that makes any sense.

Yes, it is something that the OP read somewhere and I don't remember where that somewhere was. One thing I have done is always look at trades of draft picks and found that a 50% discount from this to next year seems to always be in the ballpark. Sorry, I don't have any data to back this up right now. Maybe after this draft, I'll play around with the last 3 years and document what is. I think that the reason for the discount is the extra year's use of the player drafted with the pick this year. (You know, if you borrow money, you do have to pay for taking the use of the money for that year and for the lender not having the use of the money for that year). Somehow the short lifetime of NLF players, coaches and GM's also plays into this. Few coaches would want to be fired for poor results this year, even if they were laying the grounds for success in the future.

[ThurmasThoman]

The thing of it is this:

 

The Bills now have phenomenal talent across the board. The question is QB play.

 

So, if EJ is absolutely horrendous this year, we're going to need a qb next year anyways, right? Well, with that being said, drafting a qb wouldnt be the answer: that would point towards another full rebuild, with a team that's built to win NOW. So the Bills would be forced to bring in a veteran qb anyways at that point--and that would be the one hole they would have to fill... so using a first round pick (even if that pick is number 1 over all) wouldn't do us much good, because by the time THAT qb developed, there would be glaring holes all over the roster again (mario, kyle, wideout, running back, etc.)

 

We're in win now mode, make no mistake. If EJ doesn't pan out, we bring in a qb with experience next year and ask him to step up. a top 5 pick wouldnt put us over the hump next year, we NEED ej to put us over the hump NOW.

 

I really can't articulate what I'm trying to get across philosophically but i hope it makes sense.

[Bronc24]

Bottom line is I don't need to care what anyone else thinks about this move, in this room or in the media. I like it. A lot. No argument will change my mind. Welcome to the Bills. Sammy!

[KOKBILLS]

I think they are less uncertain than the fans.

 

Exactly...Regardless of what some Bills fans think...and I'm not even saying they are wrong necessarily...The Bills feel very strongly that EJ will be a top NFL QB in time...They are 100% all in on EJ...So...If you're a Bills fan...Like it, or don't like it, learn to love it...Or not...

[YoloinOhio]

Exactly...Regardless of what some Bills fans think...and I'm not even saying they are wrong necessarily...The Bills feel very strongly that EJ will be a top NFL QB in time...They are 100% all in on EJ...So...If you're a Bills fan...Like it, or don't like it, learn to love it...Or not...

Yep - I am sure they know he needs to make big strides but as Whaley said they are giving him the tool to do so and he is taking it upon himself to improve as much as possible. Either way, I don't think they were as protective of next year's 1st as the fans who assumed it was being hoarded to EJ's eventual replacement. I think they are planning on not using it for a QB regardless and will supplement with FA on whatever they would have done with that pick.

[bladiebla]

It all comes down to how the team, EJ and Hackett perform this year. Ow and how the yearly change of defensive scheme will go (that must be so frustrating for our defensive players). The FO clearly is going all in and is betting on a winning season, even playoffs. The schedule is there, if the stars align we might go a long way, if that's the case then this move will be viewed as brilliant. If we end the season with another loosing record you bet the new owner will be replacing a whole damn lot in the staff and FO.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Other hinted at it, but we don't know what the price is yet...

 

If it's a 32nd and 128th pick, it's a much better deal than if it's a first and a 97th... in which case it's less favorable.

 

 

The additional point is, some players from this draft will be elite NFL players. IF Sammy becomes that, this deal will be looked upon as a pivotal moment in restoring the team to success and a bargain.

 

What the bills front office just told us is they think Watkins may become one of the elite players from this draft.

 

 

Edited May 9, 2014 by over 20 years of fanhood

[Rivermont Mike]

We all WANT this, some of us are just looking at this more rationally, you can call it being negative or you can open your eyes and properly evaluate this trade and scratch your head. The GM said there wasn't much difference between Watkins and the next best WR, so why give up a #1 ? Do you really think EJ has proven that he's a franchise QB and we should roll dice to give him that last piece ? I applauded the move a few years back when Atlanta traded up to grab Julio --- but Atlanta had a solid O Line, a HoF TE, an All-Pro WR and a stud RB and they were a piece or two away --- that's the difference between BOLD and RECKLESS. Think back to the late 80's when Polian went after Cornelius Bennett, because he WAS the last piece to a near dynasty -- we had our core players --- BOLD vs. RECKLESS. It's not that reckless can't work, it's just that it usually doesn't. I'm trying to think about this rationally and can't understand why they would do it, other than what others have posted, panicked about their jobs.

 

So, you and others who profess to be looking at this "rationally" believe that Whaley and Brandon did this to protect their jobs?! That's about as far from rational thought as I can imagine. And then you're proclaiming the move as "reckless" because we're not a piece or two away? Reckless is passing on a player who is regarded as the top playmaker in the draft and that you know you need for your second-year QB and your offense's production.

 

Yeah, Biscuit was the last missing piece, but what if he'd been a bust like so many other draft picks? That's just 20-20 hindsight, and you cannot apply *that* to the situation with Watkins. It's a totally different league now. And what if Watkins is the last piece of the puzzle that starts a new Bills multi-year run to the Super Bowl? That's no more or less rational than suggesting that two career NFL guys would make a reckless move and risk their reputations just to save their jobs.

Edited May 9, 2014 by Rivermont Mike

[yungmack]

If Bills aren't playoff bound, the new owner will clear cut the whole forest. Scorched Earth might be a little dramatic, but we'll certainly be talking about our (yet again) new GM and head coach.

And you know this how?

[maryland-bills-fan]

In 1987 we gave up 2 first round draft picks and a second round draft pick for the right to Biscuit. That's a taller order than what was paid Watkins. Time will tell. But Polian didn't build a dynasty by playing scared.

 

http://buffalowins.com/features/rebirth/rebirth-part-8-1987-the-trade.html

....But on Halloween 1987, Bills fans were treated to arguably the biggest and greatest trade in Buffalo sports history. The Bills traded RB Greg Bell, a first round draft choice in 1988, and first and second round picks in 1989 to Indianapolis for the rights to LB Cornelius Bennett, who couldn’t come to a contract agreement with the Colts after they took him at #2 overall in the 87 draft out of Alabama.

To make this trade even a bigger deal, the Colts then took this whole package from the Bills, included their own first and second round picks in 88, a second rounder in 89, and another RB Owen Gill and traded it to the Rams for superstar RB Eric Dickerson. Without over-analyzing this trade in totality for all the teams, the bottom line is this for the Bills: it was well worth the risk of lost draft choices & and injury plagued running back for the superstar player they received.......................But his impact was not just about the numbers. I think back to what Steve Tasker said at the jersey unveiling, “When Cornelius Bennett walked through that door, Bruce (Smith) went into the Hall of Fame.” Once “Biscuit” got here, other teams’ offenses could no longer just focus on Bruce. It was a scary proposition – Smith on one side at RDE and Bennett on the other at the LOLB position. Cornelius had to be one of the best pure pass rushing linebackers ever.

 

Two points. This is really a poor example of trade value.

 

Bell was drafted in 1988 in the first round by the Bills

The Bills packaged this with their first and second round picks in 1988. (#26 and #53, worth 1080 points or ~~ the #12 pick)

Bennett was drafted (Colts) with the second pick in 1987 (2600 points)

 

How do you compare players traded and who have played in the league with draft points?

It was a 3-way trade as well.

 

Second point, is that the value of Bennett was magnified for the Bills by having Bruce there on the other side. Usually filling holes is a good draft strategy. Sometimes adding strength to strength and getting dominate in one area works well for getting success. Watkins AND Williams AND Woods with Stevie in the slot (and 1 or 2 burners on the bench) might overload other teams and lead to success.

[GA BILLS FAN]

Properly evaluate this trade? At this point in time?

 

Bennett was the last piece? That team was coming off a 4-12 season for crissakes. People wanted to run Polian out of town on a rail. TT was a pipe dream, Lofton yet to be a Bill. Last piece? Not by a long shot.

 

Revisionist history here.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Revisionist history ? --- That 1987 team had Conlan, Odomes, Bentley, Metz, Bruce, Hull, Kelly, Talley, Wolford, etc. etc. --- they went 7-8 and once they added Thurman in '88, they went 12-4 and the rest, as they say is history. So, MAYBE you could argue that Thurman was the final piece and Bennett was the 2nd from final piece, but hell, you have a team with a HoF QB, HoF DE, HoF WR and pieces like Conlan, Odomes, Wolford, Talley, Hull etc. --- PUHLLLEEASSE -- that 1987 team was VERY CLOSE ---- the Bennett trade at the time was viewed universally as a BOLD move by POLIAN ---- not a reckless move ---revisionist history, check the facts --- run Polian out of town ? --- I don't even know where to start on that one

[Pneumonic]

In 1987 we gave up 2 first round draft picks and a second round draft pick for the right to Biscuit. That's a taller order than what was paid Watkins. Time will tell. But Polian didn't build a dynasty by playing scared.

 

True but Polian had the great benefit of being able to build a dynasty in an era that wasn't restricted by cap space and which didn't place near the value on draft picks as today's NFL does.

[Big C]

And you know this how?

 

For real. We have one of the best RB duos, now with Watkins one of the best WR corps, a fairly excellent defense and we can patch the OL and TE position in the draft. EJ has to be about as good as Andy Dalton to get into the playoffs. Even Christian Ponder got into the playoffs behind a strong run game and decent defense. We can do it.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

 

Revisionist history ? --- That 1987 team had Conlan, Odomes, Bentley, Metz, Bruce, Hull, Kelly, Talley, Wolford, etc. etc. --- they went 7-8 and once they added Thurman in '88, they went 12-4 and the rest, as they say is history. So, MAYBE you could argue that Thurman was the final piece and Bennett was the 2nd from final piece, but hell, you have a team with a HoF QB, HoF DE, HoF WR and pieces like Conlan, Odomes, Wolford, Talley, Hull etc. --- PUHLLLEEASSE -- that 1987 team was VERY CLOSE ---- the Bennett trade at the time was viewed universally as a BOLD move by POLIAN ---- not a reckless move ---revisionist history, check the facts --- run Polian out of town ? --- I don't even know where to start on that one

 

They went 7-8?

[maryland-bills-fan]

Who are these draft pundits? Every grade I've seen other than Prisco gave the Bills an A and many references what a great deal it was by not giving up any additional picks in this years draft.

 

Also, draft value charts are stupid and I can tell you the only people who care about them are the media and fans. Draft value charts have no factors for the quality of the prospect, the quality of the drafts in question, team needs, team projections, team expectations, risks in moving out of a spot, targeted players, etc.

 

In other words there is a complete lack of common sense and rational thinking, hence why no one really puts too much stock in them outside the fans and media.

 

Bills got a steal by not having to give up any additional picks in this draft which is regarded as one of the best and deepest in years. Truth is, we won six games with a twice injured rookie QB, 3 scrub 3rd string QBs, and a total decimation of injuries to every starter at every skill position on both sides of the ball. We are closer than people think to being a good football team. And we damn near won about 6 other games despite all that.

 

Great move Bills! Whaley and co have been impressive if you ask me

see http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/167606-rankingsratings-from-the-experts/

[Big C]

They went 7-8?

 

There was a brief player strike that year.

[billsgpr88]

Prisco gave the move a C-.

 

Hilarious. He might as well just give it an A or an F. Sammy has never played an NFL down and we have no idea who would be on the board next year in the first and 4th round when it was our turn to pick.

 

Instant draft grades are a joke.

 

yeah, that guy is invariably critical of the bills. I think he picked the bills lose damn near every games last year, I think I follow what he says just to see him proven wrong. Who cares what he says, that tanorexic looks like a block of cheddar cheese