Did the Bills pay too much to move up for Watkins?

[bills_fan]

I think Sammy is gonna be good, but he needs to be Megatron 2 in order to justify this payment. And we are not just one player away either. Reading Peter King's piece this morning on it, Whaley sounded like an idiot fan rather than a GM who is supposed to be above the fray.

 

I may love Sammy as a player, but I hate the cost of the move-up.

[Pneumonic]

It seems fine now but, not having a #1 this time next year, it will suck. Unless the lost pick is @ 32.

[May Day 10]

you cant really hate the move until you:

 

Know where the Bills fall in the 2015 draft order, and also see the players available at that spot.

 

It is kind of a gamble. The Bills are betting on themselves to be decent which I like. I think its time we get over the defeatist attitude as well. Watkins seems like an extremely safe pick with a very high ceiling. Very happy getting him and he adds a lot of octane into the offense. Also has the Clemson connection (and ACC Connection) with a few players which maybe can help gel.

 

 

There are also 2 "side affects".

 

1. I wont have to root against the Bills in any way this season for draft spot.

2. We wont have to hear as much draft hype on WGR, etc for months on end when they move the draft to the end of May next year

[Nostradumbass]

Idiot move by an idiot GM

 

Any objective study of drafting in the past 30 years contiually show two things to be evident

 

- NFL teams rarely have a talent evaluation edge

- the only proven way to beat the draft is to have more picks

 

To make the determination that Watkin's value to the team will exceed that of the player you would get at 9 + the player we would have gotten next year is ridiculous

 

Sammy Watkins is as probable to be Braylon Edwards as he is AJ Green

[YoloinOhio]

Mike Rodak ‏@mikerodak 1h

Comparing the Bills’ trade for Sammy Watkins with the Falcons’ 2011 deal for Julio Jones: http://es.pn/SHQL8M

[BillsFanNC]

When you haven't made the playoffs since freaking 1999, all conventional wisdom goes out the window. There is no such thing as too high a price. How can any move and its associated cost SET BACK a team that has been irrelevant since Slick Willy was in the White House?

[ICanSleepWhenI'mDead]

The general rule is that a 1st next year is worth a 2nd this year, so no I don't think they gave up too much. I would rather have my 2nd round pick this year.

If it's true that the talent in this years draft runs much deeper than the talent expected to be available in next year's draft, then you can make a rational argument that, at least for this particular year, "a 1st next year is worth a 2nd this year."

 

But that's not what you're saying. By saying it's a "general rule," you're claiming that you should always discount next year's picks by 1 round.

 

The OP also claims that picks in a draft 1 year later should be discounted - - by 50% of their point value on the trade chart.

 

I realize that both of you may have read these claims somewhere, but what's the logic behind that thinking? Why is a pick a year in the future ALWAYS worth so much less than a pick now? I'm curious about the rationale, because that makes no sense to me.

 

I can see how future picks are always worth less to the GM, because he might get fired before next year's draft comes around. But if you aren't a Bills employee, how does that make any sense?

 

Do Olympic athletes win gold medals with successively slower times every four years? Is the general population of college age kids becoming gradually less athletically capable over time?

 

Please give me some rational explanation for why a future pick in any given round should ALWAYS be evaluated at a discount compared to this year's pick in the same round. I don't think that makes any sense.

Edited May 9, 2014 by ICanSleepWhenI'mDead

[K-9]

Heard all this 27 years ago when, coming off a 4-12 season and still several players away, people cried and complained about not having a #1 pick in the '88 draft, let alone not having a #1 AND #2 in '89. How'd that 2nd round pick turn out in '88?

 

Point is, next year is a totally INDETERMINATE value at this time. Watkins is the essence of DETERMINATE quality: a generational talent and best offensive player available in this year's draft.

 

So go on lamenting losing something you don't even know about yet, while the rest of us enjoy the very REAL talent we acquired.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Edited May 9, 2014 by K-9

[GA BILLS FAN]

This move is akin to hitting on 17 when the dealer is showing a 6. Bad move. Can it work, yes, but you make moves like this over and over and you will bust. Again, big difference between BOLD and RECKLESS. I'm all for calculated risk, but I'd much rather have Lewan (or Mosley or Ebron) and my 1st next year than Watkins. Poor judgment, especially wen our own GM says there wasn't much difference between Sammy and the next WR.

Edited May 9, 2014 by TXBILLSFAN

[C.Biscuit97]

This move is akin to hitting on 15 when the dealer is showing a 6. Bad move. Can it work, yes, but you make moves like this over and over and you will bust. Again, big difference between BOLD and RECKLESS. I'm all for calculated risk, but I'd much rather have Lewan (or Mosley or Ebron) and my 1st next year than Watkins. Poor judgment, especially wen our own GM says there wasn't much difference between Sammy and the next WR.

 

Lewan is whatever. There are Lewans everywhere. IF Watkins lives up to his rating, he's a lot rarer to find.

[K-9]

Idiot move by an idiot GM

 

Any objective study of drafting in the past 30 years contiually show two things to be evident

 

- NFL teams rarely have a talent evaluation edge

- the only proven way to beat the draft is to have more picks

 

To make the determination that Watkin's value to the team will exceed that of the player you would get at 9 + the player we would have gotten next year is ridiculous

 

Sammy Watkins is as probable to be Braylon Edwards as he is AJ Green

 

The success that all three have had to this relative point in their careers suggests otherwise. Yes, all picks are a crapshoot to some degree. But neither Julio Jones or Braylon Edwards were as accomplished through their junior years as Watkins. Not even close, really.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Edited May 9, 2014 by K-9

[YoloinOhio]

Lewan is whatever. There are Lewans everywhere. IF Watkins lives up to his rating, he's a lot rarer to find.

Let's hope not. He has a mustache tattoo on his finger. He is ultra creepy.

Edited May 9, 2014 by YoloinOhio

[Rivermont Mike]

Wahhhhhhhh. We're going to be 6-10 and now we've given up a silver-bullet "savior" first round for next year, and we've lost 1000 points and there's no value and blah blah blah blah blah....

 

Wahhhhhhhh. I'm not convinced that EJ is a good quarterback and we should have done our usual inconsequential drafting because next the QB pool is going to be awesome and his knees are going to crash and burn and blah blah blah....

 

Wahhhhhhhh. The FO guys are a bunch of jerks who know nothing about football and I know better and I would have drafted _______ and we'd have our high first round pick next year and then we'd be awesome...

 

Sheesh. We just drafted *the* playmaker of the 2014 Draft and instead of enjoying it, we're trying to save draft picks like a Depression-era grammy tucking dollar bills away in a sugar bowl on the top shelf "just in case."

 

Not this guy. I want EJ to be on the phone with Watkins today and throwing footballs to him as soon as possible. I want it to be September so I can drive up to the Lazy Parrot in Charlottesville, grab a Blue, and watch the games. #&%^ this negative nonsense. GO BILLS! Wildcard this year!

[May Day 10]

Im normally very negative when it comes to the Bills, but I love this. I cant wrap my head around why/how so many are down on it.

[mannc]

If it's true that the talent in this years draft runs much deeper than the talent expected to be available in next year's draft, then you can make a rational argument that, at least for this particular year, "a 1st next year is worth a 2nd this year."

 

But that's not what you're saying. By saying it's a "general rule," you're claiming that you should always discount next year's picks by 1 round.

 

The OP also claims that picks in a draft 1 year later should be discounted - - by 50% of their point value on the trade chart.

 

I realize that both of you may have read these claims somewhere, but what's the logic behind that thinking? Why is a pick a year in the future ALWAYS worth so much less than a pick now? I'm curious about the rationale, because that makes no sense to me.

 

I can see how future picks are always worth less to the GM, because he might get fired before next year's draft comes around. But if you aren't a Bills employee, how does that make any sense?

 

Do Olympic athletes win gold medals with successively slower times every four years? Is the general population of college age kids becoming gradually less athletically capable over time?

 

Please give me some rational explanation for why a future pick in any given round should ALWAYS be evaluated at a discount compared to this year's pick in the same round. I don't think that makes any sense.

I think the rationale is sort of a "time value of money" type thing: Would you rather have $1 million right now, or $1.2 million next year? Obviously, $1 million cash right now is worth more than a promise to pay $1 million next year. And then there is the uncertainty surrounding future picks. How high (or low) will the pick be? Will it be a strong draft, or a weak one? Will I still be the GM next year when the bill comes due? A pick next year, no matter how high, doesn't help my team this year. Of course, the flip side is what made the deal attractive to Whaley: giving up next year's pick doesn't hurt my team this year and if I don't win this year, I won't be around next year anyway. I think all those things factor into the equation. Is it exactly a one-round discount? Who knows. But that's the conventional wisdom.

[YoloinOhio]

Wahhhhhhhh. We're going to be 6-10 and now we've given up a silver-bullet "savior" first round for next year, and we've lost 1000 points and there's no value and blah blah blah blah blah....

 

Wahhhhhhhh. I'm not convinced that EJ is a good quarterback and we should have done our usual inconsequential drafting because next the QB pool is going to be awesome and his knees are going to crash and burn and blah blah blah....

 

Wahhhhhhhh. The FO guys are a bunch of jerks who know nothing about football and I know better and I would have drafted _______ and we'd have our high first round pick next year and then we'd be awesome...

 

Sheesh. We just drafted *the* playmaker of the 2014 Draft and instead of enjoying it, we're trying to save draft picks like a Depression-era grammy tucking dollar bills away in a sugar bowl on the top shelf "just in case."

 

Not this guy. I want EJ to be on the phone with Watkins today and throwing footballs to him as soon as possible. I want it to be September so I can drive up to the Lazy Parrot in Charlottesville, grab a Blue, and watch the games. #&%^ this negative nonsense. GO BILLS! Wildcard this year!

This

[Bills Fan in Beantown]

In 1987 we gave up 2 first round draft picks and a second round draft pick for the right to Biscuit. That's a taller order than what was paid Watkins. Time will tell. But Polian didn't build a dynasty by playing scared.

[YoloinOhio]

Mike Rodak ‏@mikerodak 6m

Examining the trickle-down effect of the Bills’ trade and selection of Sammy Watkins last night: http://es.pn/Rx8KgL

[GA BILLS FAN]

This

We all WANT this, some of us are just looking at this more rationally, you can call it being negative or you can open your eyes and properly evaluate this trade and scratch your head. The GM said there wasn't much difference between Watkins and the next best WR, so why give up a #1 ? Do you really think EJ has proven that he's a franchise QB and we should roll dice to give him that last piece ? I applauded the move a few years back when Atlanta traded up to grab Julio --- but Atlanta had a solid O Line, a HoF TE, an All-Pro WR and a stud RB and they were a piece or two away --- that's the difference between BOLD and RECKLESS. Think back to the late 80's when Polian went after Cornelius Bennett, because he WAS the last piece to a near dynasty -- we had our core players --- BOLD vs. RECKLESS. It's not that reckless can't work, it's just that it usually doesn't. I'm trying to think about this rationally and can't understand why they would do it, other than what others have posted, panicked about their jobs. Build until you are close, than go BOLD

Edited May 9, 2014 by TXBILLSFAN

[K-9]

We all WANT this, some of us are just looking at this more rationally, you can call it being negative or you can open your eyes and properly evaluate this trade and scratch your head. The GM said there wasn't much difference between Watkins and the next best WR, so why give up a #1 ? Do you really think EJ has proven that he's a franchise QB and we should roll dice to give him that last piece ? I applauded the move a few years back when Atlanta traded up to grab Julio --- but Atlanta had a solid O Line, a HoF TE, an All-Pro WR and a stud RB and they were a piece or two away --- that's the difference between BOLD and RECKLESS. Think back to the late 80's when Polian went after Cornelius Bennett, because he WAS the last piece to a near dynasty -- we had our core players --- BOLD vs. RECKLESS. It's not that reckless can't work, it's just that it usually doesn't. I'm thinking about this rationally

 

Properly evaluate this trade? At this point in time?

 

Bennett was the last piece? That team was coming off a 4-12 season for crissakes. People wanted to run Polian out of town on a rail. TT was a pipe dream, Lofton yet to be a Bill. Last piece? Not by a long shot.

 

Revisionist history here.

 

GO BILLS!!!