RD1, Pick #4: WR Sammy Watkins - Clemson

[26CornerBlitz]

Or at the very least researched why he was catching so many balls behind the LOS. Which is a pretty simple answer. Because press coverage, which is how defenses covered Waktins his freshman year, wasn't working. He'd blow past it. Hence cover 2 and 3 and giving him a cushion. And the offense smartly said, "Ok, if you're going to give us 5 yards every time, we'll take it".

 

Exactly my point. The guy is acting as if Watkins is a one trick pony. IMO it is an intellectually lazy and/or dishonest piece of journalism.

[Kelly the Dog]

 

Then if it we had nobody to trade with, I would have stayed at nine and picked Ebron. I was just thinking that if it took Cleveland only a 5 to move up one spot, maybe it would take only a 3 to move up two.

 

 

 

Sammy had some crappy games, too.

 

 

 

Did you really watch all the Clemson games?............I'd like there to be a system where we pick out players when they're freshmen, but they don't join us until junior or senior year. That way, I'd watch all of our prospects. Like the minors in baseball.......... The way it is now, I'm like damn - I wish I watched Clemson! Or whatever our pick of the year is from.

No, I didn't. But I did watch a lot of them, and I read a lot, and I listen, and I remember. And I strongly believe that if the writer of that article did the same, he would not have come to that conclusion without context. It's very valid to say that he is not likely to gain the YAC on screen passes in the NFL like he did in college.

 

But that seems to be the thesis of the entire argument why his play may not translate, and that is simply flat wrong. That implies that is all he can do, or the major element of his game that does not translate to the pros. But that is not at all the major element of his game. It was in his senior year because, as has been stated a lot here, Sweeney decided to take what was given to him. In fact, Watkins said after he was drafted he didn't even like doing it, he wanted to run the regular routes and looks forward to the Bills so he won't have to run as many screens.

[All_Pro_Bills]

He's not saying the quick screen won't work in the NFL game, he saying it won't work at that frequency. Show me a #1 receiver that catches ~60% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage. Can you picture any receiver in the NFL catching that many passes behind the line of scrimmage? What works great in the ACC doesn't always work in the NFL, that's what he's essentially saying.

I think the 60% figure is a result of taking what the defense gives you. One possible explanation is that defenses were afraid to get beat deep so they played well off the line. Another factor might be that tackling proficiency at the pro level is a lot higher than at the college level. And on and on.

 

My problem with most of these 'experts' is they take one or two data points, put a lot of untested assumptions around it, and then draw some speculative conclusion.

[QCity]

But the percentage of passes like that which he caught in college had ZERO to do with his other abilities as a WR that do translate, all of which he excels at. It was lazy reporting just looking at statistics. There is nothing at all in his tool set and skills that says he will not be able to run NFL routes and be productive. He did that fabulous, too. The only reason for the high percentage, according to him and his coach and just watching the games, was because other teams would not take that away because they were scared of him. That is not a deficiency is his game.

 

Yeah, but I never said any of that. Someone said the writer thinks "the quick screen doesn't work in the NFL." I said he interpreted that wrong, and that the writer is saying it won't work at the frequency it does in the ACC.

[Kelly the Dog]

Yeah, but I never said any of that. Someone said the writer thinks "the quick screen doesn't work in the NFL." I said he interpreted that wrong, and that the writer is saying it won't work at the frequency it does in the ACC.

Fair enough. But what you did say was show me a WR that catches 60% of his passes behind the LOS. That implies that you were doing the same thing as the writer was, saying Sammy isn't going to be able to do that, so his transition is suspect. Otherwise, why make that 60% connection directly to him, or not say something like "Not that I expect Watkins to be used like that."

[QCity]

Fair enough. But what you did say was show me a WR that catches 60% of his passes behind the LOS. That implies that you were doing the same thing as the writer was, saying Sammy isn't going to be able to do that, so his transition is suspect. Otherwise, why make that 60% connection directly to him, or not say something like "Not that I expect Watkins to be used like that."

 

I made the 60% connection to him because there is no way in hell a #1 WR is going to catch 60% of his passes behind the LoS in the NFL. I don't think anyone who is sane would argue that. I do think he has the skillset to be a great WR in the NFL.

[Jon in Pasadena]

What stinks for me is that "Your an idiot" is a long standing tradition here on the wall. I will often spell it that way just to make myself and a few others here smirk. But I never know when someone else writes it that way whether they are paying homage, or, well, an idjit.

Oh common, man!

[Deranged Rhino]

I made the 60% connection to him because there is no way in hell a #1 WR is going to catch 60% of his passes behind the LoS in the NFL. I don't think anyone who is sane would argue that. I do think he has the skillset to be a great WR in the NFL.

After saying you didn't say that, you just turned around and said essentially what Kelly was trying to point out is lazy thinking. :lol:

[QCity]

After saying you didn't say that, you just turned around and said essentially what Kelly was trying to point out is lazy thinking. :lol:

 

Well, I guess I should of said "Yeah, but I never said any of that and I agree with most of your points except the one about the statistics."

[Deranged Rhino]

 

 

Well, I guess I should of said "Yeah, but I never said any of that and I agree with most of your points except the one about the statistics."

Fair. I'm not trying to pick on you, you might end up being right -- but you're one of the only people who believe Watkins lack the skills set to be a number 1 WR in the nfl. I know it's your opinion and you're entitled to it, but it's so far outside the view of the overwhelming majority of not only fans and armchair gms but real gms and talent evaluators.

 

If he will become a number one is a question until he answers it of course, but Watkins clearly has all the measurables that the position requires. From his size and speed to his experience and hands to his blocking -- he can play inside or outside -- what is missing that makes you so sure that he's not capable of being a number one in the league?

[3rdand12]

That's a way of figuring out who "won" the trade (for lack of a better word) but it doesn't tell you if the trade was better for the Bills than standing pat because the Bills wouldn't have drafted the same players (or made the same moves) as Cleveland.

 

I read somewhere from an unnamed Bills front office member that the Bills likely would have drafted Ebron or Beckham Jr. (he said likely Ebron) if they hadn't been able to make the trade. Comparing Watkins to those two seems like a more accurate measure at least in the short run. If either of those guys ends up being comparable to Watkins by themselves then it's pretty obvious the Bills made the wrong move given they could have had either and their picks next year.

 

Since nobody knows what the picks will be next year, to me the question is: Is Watkins so much better than Ebron or Beckham Jr. that the gap between them is worth the 1st and 4th picks in next year's draft. Looking at it with only the pre-draft info I have to say it's a close call. I have no faith in Ebron at all, the guy can't catch the ball and while I like Beckham nothing about him makes me scream, "wow."

 

In the final tally it, obviously, also matters where the Bills would have drafted next year. If they have a top 5 pick it becomes iffy, even if Watkins appears to have a wide gap between him and those other guys.

Very much matters where the Browns pick i think to properly value the trade . but any one of us can pick the theories apart and put them back together again differently . And they still make sense of sorts.

my favorite take away is that..

The Bills "went for it ". Very much change of direction then i am used to. This is huge drama in my mind and it shows up hear on the forum .

Important and defining for Whaley AND Brandon .

How can you not start to like these guys.

 

Browns draft around twenty. Bills contend for a playoff spot if not actually grab one !

And alot of us have a new favorite player to go nuts over.

Well done .

By my perception of the general mood around here , the Bills hit it out of the park .

 

Starting to think so

[3rdand12]

The Jerseys will also have the RCW patch on them.

this alone is a fine reason for me to get my first one .

 

I'm convinced that Ross Cockrell kicked Mike Evans arse in the bowl game.

LOL !

 

What stinks for me is that "Your an idiot" is a long standing tradition here on the wall. I will often spell it that way just to make myself and a few others here smirk. But I never know when someone else writes it that way whether they are paying homage, or, well, an idjit.

To pull if off correctly i beleive it's "your and idiot ' the and part really sends it home i feel

Steve appears on the fence with the sarcasm.

[smapdi]

Warning signs for Bills' top pick

 

Sammy Watkins' impact appears unlikely to equal price Buffalo paid

 

http://insider.espn....id?refresh=true

 

Watkins gained 71.3 percent of his receiving yards after the catch (YAC). That's an absurd number. Watkins will not come close to those numbers in the NFL, where most wide receivers average less than 40 percent in YAC. The hidden source of Watkins' YAC is just how often he catches short passes. We're not just talking about 4-yard curls either. According to STATS LLC, Watkins caught 58 of his 101 receptions (57.4 percent) on passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage. That's often a quick screen. Again, this will not work in the NFL.

 

This silly notion I've been seeing that Watkins is a product of Clemson's spread/screens and won't be effective in the NFL is bunk. Clemson's coach was on WGR during the draft and addressed this criticism. To paraphrase, he basically stated that the high number of screen passes caught by Sammy his senior year was a product of the way defenses were playing him.

 

DC's were absolutely terrified of Watkin's down the field by his senior year so they gave him a ton of cushion; 7-10 yards the CB's were playing off of him because of his speed. Clemson was more then happy to just start throwing screens to a wide open Watkins due to this huge cushion. Why wouldn't you throw to a wide open Sammy Watkins over and over if that's what the defense was giving you?? He is such a tremendous player after the catch, that he can turn those 2 yard screens into 15+ yard chunks with no problem.

 

Just go look at what he did as a freshmen. He can run any route you want him to. The fact that he was just destroying CB's down the field was the reason he was given such a huge cushion his senior season.

 

That is why I love this pick. He is a legitimate elite WR. He can do it all and score from anywhere. He has the height and athleticism to out jump CB's down the field. He has the size to run through them on screens. He has the agility of a RB with the ball in his hands.. just look at some of the cuts he makes in the highlight reels. Defenses are going to learn pretty quickly that you either give him a hefty cushion or he is going to run right by your CB. This will lead to having to shade the safety to his side of the field opening up all types of space for his teammates. He truly will make the entire offense more dangerous just by being on the field.

[Deranged Rhino]

This silly notion I've been seeing that Watkins is a product of Clemson's spread/screens and won't be effective in the NFL is bunk. Clemson's coach was on WGR during the draft and addressed this criticism. To paraphrase, he basically stated that the high number of screen passes caught by Sammy his senior year was a product of the way defenses were playing him.

 

DC's were absolutely terrified of Watkin's down the field by his senior year so they gave him a ton of cushion; 7-10 yards the CB's were playing off of him because of his speed. Clemson was more then happy to just start throwing screens to a wide open Watkins due to this huge cushion. Why wouldn't you throw to a wide open Sammy Watkins over and over if that's what the defense was giving you?? He is such a tremendous player after the catch, that he can turn those 2 yard screens into 15+ yard chunks with no problem.

 

Just go look at what he did as a freshmen. He can run any route you want him to. The fact that he was just destroying CB's down the field was the reason he was given such a huge cushion his senior season.

 

That is why I love this pick. He is a legitimate elite WR. He can do it all and score from anywhere. He has the height and athleticism to out jump CB's down the field. He has the size to run through them on screens. He has the agility of a RB with the ball in his hands.. just look at some of the cuts he makes in the highlight reels. Defenses are going to learn pretty quickly that you either give him a hefty cushion or he is going to run right by your CB. This will lead to having to shade the safety to his side of the field opening up all types of space for his teammates. He truly will make the entire offense more dangerous just by being on the field.

Spot on.

 

He'll make every player on the offense look better in the process. From the line to the QB to the RBs, Watkins will change the way teams match up against the Bills. That's the definition of an impact player -- and he'll do this from day one. Doesn't mean he'll be a superstar right away, but as Kelly said earlier, he'll have an immediate impact just by his reputation and desire to get better every time he steps onto the field.

[26CornerBlitz]

If you watched the Bills behind the scenes draft video, this isn't news to you:

 

Bills tried to trade up to No. 1 for Sammy Watkins

The Buffalo Bills desperately wanted Sammy Watkins.

 

In a fantastic behind-the-scenes video published on the team's official website, director of player personnel Jim Monos said the team tried to get all the way to No. 1 to get their receiver.

 

"We went with Houston right off the bat," Monos said. "We tried to go to No. 1. They weren't having it. They knew who they wanted, so we started working our way right down."

[Maury Ballstein]

Quick screens don't work in the NFL. Somebody should tell the patriots*.

 

Let Peyton Manning know also while you're at it.

 

Come on papazoid. Get on the bus gus.

Edited May 15, 2014 by Ryan L Billz

[3rdand12]

Spot on.

 

He'll make every player on the offense look better in the process. From the line to the QB to the RBs, Watkins will change the way teams match up against the Bills. That's the definition of an impact player -- and he'll do this from day one. Doesn't mean he'll be a superstar right away, but as Kelly said earlier, he'll have an immediate impact just by his reputation and desire to get better every time he steps onto the field.

It will take a couple of games to show him off. kinda like Chan and Spiller. But once the defenses respect our man # 14 !

So much more is possible due to the current surrounding cast on offense. Hells Bells i thought we were going to have a good year with the receivers before Bills "mortgaged the future ' !

[RuntheDamnBall]

That is a nonsense criticism by someone who didn't follow what was going on in the actual games.

See, that's really surprising coming from an ESPN insider.

[YoloinOhio]

This silly notion I've been seeing that Watkins is a product of Clemson's spread/screens and won't be effective in the NFL is bunk. Clemson's coach was on WGR during the draft and addressed this criticism. To paraphrase, he basically stated that the high number of screen passes caught by Sammy his senior year was a product of the way defenses were playing him.

 

DC's were absolutely terrified of Watkin's down the field by his senior year so they gave him a ton of cushion; 7-10 yards the CB's were playing off of him because of his speed. Clemson was more then happy to just start throwing screens to a wide open Watkins due to this huge cushion. Why wouldn't you throw to a wide open Sammy Watkins over and over if that's what the defense was giving you?? He is such a tremendous player after the catch, that he can turn those 2 yard screens into 15+ yard chunks with no problem.

 

Just go look at what he did as a freshmen. He can run any route you want him to. The fact that he was just destroying CB's down the field was the reason he was given such a huge cushion his senior season.

 

That is why I love this pick. He is a legitimate elite WR. He can do it all and score from anywhere. He has the height and athleticism to out jump CB's down the field. He has the size to run through them on screens. He has the agility of a RB with the ball in his hands.. just look at some of the cuts he makes in the highlight reels. Defenses are going to learn pretty quickly that you either give him a hefty cushion or he is going to run right by your CB. This will lead to having to shade the safety to his side of the field opening up all types of space for his teammates. He truly will make the entire offense more dangerous just by being on the field.

I posted on here before the Orange Bowl that I had no doubt they would run the all-screen pass offense on OSU and they did. Why? Because OSU can't stop it and they had shown that over 2 years of film. They also didn't have a single DB who could match up with Watkins so they had to play off of him. The number of screens they will run will depend on the matchup and the opponent. Clearly NFL DBs are going to line up and play press man on him, but, he is extremely effective at press coverage which is one reason he was such a hot commodity. As a rookie, he isn't going to win all those matchups, but consider he is certainly not our only option and both Woods and Williams are borderline #1s IMO. If teams want to put their best guy on Watkins, fine with me.

[QCity]

Fair. I'm not trying to pick on you, you might end up being right -- but you're one of the only people who believe Watkins lack the skills set to be a number 1 WR in the nfl. I know it's your opinion and you're entitled to it, but it's so far outside the view of the overwhelming majority of not only fans and armchair gms but real gms and talent evaluators.

 

If he will become a number one is a question until he answers it of course, but Watkins clearly has all the measurables that the position requires. From his size and speed to his experience and hands to his blocking -- he can play inside or outside -- what is missing that makes you so sure that he's not capable of being a number one in the league?

 

No, no, no, you've been misinterpreting my rants in other threads. I'm negative on the Watkins trade, but not the player himself. I think Watkins has the skillset to be a great #1 WR in the league, I even mentioned it to Kelly in the last post you quoted me in. Giving up next years #1 is what bothers me to no end, but I don't want to get into it and derail this thread - you've read my reasons why in other threads.

 

It may sound like I'm down on Watkins because I've previously stated that you can realistically expect him to touch the football 4-5 times a game this year. That's not so much a knock on Sammy as it is the result of playing in a Hackett-coached run-first offense with an unproven 2nd year QB. I honestly think that's a realistic expectation for his 1st year on this team. I'm very confident he's the best receiver in this class, but I'm not certain he will lead them all statistically this year - someone with a Pro Bowl QB (Cook, Adams) could easily put up better numbers than him this year.