Magox Posted May 12, 2014 Posted May 12, 2014 (edited) In order for it to be worth the heavy price tag, Sammy would have to become a perennial pro bowler. Having said that, he passes the eye ball test, his acceleration is top notch, he is good sized, very good speed, great character and phenomenal production throughout almost all of his career. I happen to believe he was worth the risk. Edited May 12, 2014 by Magox
Awwufelloff Posted May 12, 2014 Posted May 12, 2014 (edited) Here is my reasoning. Pick 9 this year which we traded netted Anthony Barr (LB). Pick 19 this year (About where we should finished) netted Ja-Wawn James (OT). Would you rather have these two guys or Sammy Watkins. It's a pretty easy decision for me, I'd rather have Sammy 10 times out of 10. In fact the OT we got in the 2nd round I prefer over James. Edited May 12, 2014 by Awwufelloff
Big C Posted May 12, 2014 Posted May 12, 2014 Here is my reasoning. Pick 9 this year which we traded netted Anthony Barr (LB). Pick 19 this year (About where we should finished) netted Ja-Wawn James (OT). Would you rather have these two guys or Sammy Watkins. It's a pretty easy decision for me, I'd rather have Sammy 10 times out of 10. In fact the OT we got in the 2nd round I prefer over James. \ Agreed! James should have actually been an option in round 2, but I think the Dolphins reached a little. Either way, I love what we got.
Canadian Bills Fan Posted May 12, 2014 Posted May 12, 2014 I think by trading next years #1, I think Whaley might be saying that they are giving EJ three years to prove himself CBF
Big C Posted May 12, 2014 Posted May 12, 2014 I think by trading next years #1, I think Whaley might be saying that they are giving EJ three years to prove himself CBF Lets also consider how many starting QBs have been drafted after round 1 in today's league. If EJ doesn't pan out, we really don't have very many needs outside of QB going into next year barring some sort of catastrophe.
Canadian Bills Fan Posted May 12, 2014 Posted May 12, 2014 (edited) Interesting article regarding Rookie of the year odds as well as other stat odds http://fansided.com/...-evans-favored/ Anyone know if Watkins will be returning kicks/punts? CBF Edited May 12, 2014 by Canadian Bills Fan
DrDawkinstein Posted May 12, 2014 Posted May 12, 2014 Here is my reasoning. Pick 9 this year which we traded netted Anthony Barr (LB). Pick 19 this year (About where we should finished) netted Ja-Wawn James (OT). Would you rather have these two guys or Sammy Watkins. It's a pretty easy decision for me, I'd rather have Sammy 10 times out of 10. In fact the OT we got in the 2nd round I prefer over James. Interesting take. I'd take Sammy every time.
bbb Posted May 12, 2014 Posted May 12, 2014 Lets also consider how many starting QBs have been drafted after round 1 in today's league. If EJ doesn't pan out, we really don't have very many needs outside of QB going into next year barring some sort of catastrophe. Which is why we needed our number one. Per NFL power rankings of QBs, 4 of the top 5, 9 out of top 12 and 12 out of top 16 QBs are first round picks. So, yeah, you have your Colin K, Brady and Wilson, but you have to play the odds.
Beerball Posted May 12, 2014 Author Posted May 12, 2014 Anyone know if Watkins will be returning kicks/punts? CBF Please God no.
Peter Posted May 12, 2014 Posted May 12, 2014 (edited) I am with those who think we probably gave up too much to move up fewer picks than the Dolphins did last year as I recall. Nevertheless, I love the fact that Sammy is on our team. He seems like a great kid, comes from a good family, has tons of talent, and grew up as a Bills fan. There is nothing not to like about the player and the person. Edited May 12, 2014 by Peter
QCity Posted May 12, 2014 Posted May 12, 2014 Which means that you have invested one draft pick in that player. We invested two firsts and one fourth in Watkins. The result of the trade Whaley actually made is exactly the same as it would be if Cleveland stayed at #4 overall, selected Watkins with that pick, and then traded Watkins to us for 2 firsts and a fourth. By the end of the month there will be posters arguing that it's really like giving up a 2016 5th round pick.
papazoid Posted May 12, 2014 Posted May 12, 2014 I think by trading next years #1, I think Whaley might be saying that they are giving EJ three years to prove himself CBF if the Bills miss the playoffs this year.....whaley won't be around to give EJ a third year.
Kelly the Dog Posted May 12, 2014 Posted May 12, 2014 (edited) if the Bills miss the playoffs this year.....whaley won't be around to give EJ a third year. While that seems to be the semi-consensus around here, mostly because of the Watkins trade/risk, and especially because of the common occurrence that new ownership most often tends to hire new guys, I wouldn't be too sure about either of them. Because new ownership almost for sure are going to be a Buffalo led group, they will not only be very familiar with Whaley already, but probably, like most reasonable fans here, think he is a breath of fresh air and very good at his job. Therefore, IMO, he especially will get a fair shot at keeping it. I wouldn't be surprised if Brandon stays, too, although may not keep his power and title (meaning he won't be running the franchise or the President with all the power to hire and fire). It would be different if Trump comes in, or an outsider with a desire to keep the team here but no intimate knowledge of the team over the last 25 years. I think Whaley stays, at least another year, almost no matter what. Edited May 12, 2014 by Kelly the Dog
3rdand12 Posted May 13, 2014 Posted May 13, 2014 (edited) Watkins. The more time that passes by the more i absorb info about this kid , i might be getting a crush on him. Was not thrilled with the pick but understood the thinking behind it ( game changer tied to EJ directly ) Now i think he might be every bit of a number # 1 pick. Also that Bills did a damned decent job this draft. Time will tell of course . i hope they can keep this group together and prove it on the field. finallly Edited May 13, 2014 by 3rdand12
bbb Posted May 13, 2014 Posted May 13, 2014 Yeah, I like this year's draft a lot.............It's next year's that I hate already!
SBUffalo Posted May 13, 2014 Posted May 13, 2014 (edited) (No, I didn't do that) Edited May 13, 2014 by SBUffalo
Mikie2times Posted May 13, 2014 Posted May 13, 2014 Which means that you have invested one draft pick in that player. We invested two firsts and one fourth in Watkins. The result of the trade Whaley actually made is exactly the same as it would be if Cleveland stayed at #4 overall, selected Watkins with that pick, and then traded Watkins to us for 2 firsts and a fourth. Now thump your chest some more and tell us how smart you are. Your line of thinking is correct in some ways and flawed in others. Yes, the trade is technically the same as us giving 2 first round picks and a fourth to Cleveland under a scenario in which Cleveland Drafted Sammy Watkins and traded him to us. But Cleveland did not draft Sammy Watkins, more importantly the bills were getting one first round pick no matter what. Neither of which you factor into this equation. You got 1 addition (Sammy Watkins our guaranteed 1st round pick ) - 2 Subtractions, next years 1st round pick and the 4th round pick. The net loss is the 1st round pick and the 4th round pick. We had no net loss regarding this years 1st round selection. In fact we had a net gain. Let's look at this in more detail not factoring in any weight to future years picks being worth less then current years picks. The scale teams use to value selections has the following.... 4th Pick = 1800 points 9th Pick = 1350 points So the Bills gained 450 points this year according to the standardized scale teams use. In 2015 the Bills will lose both a 1st round pick and a 4th round pick. If we draft between 15th to 20th next year it will result in a max loss of 1125 points at 15 at 20 it's 912 points. So if you don't factor in a following years pick to be more devalued (which it is) the Bills would lose an average of 1018.5 Points in 2015 if you feel they will average between the 15th and 20th slot. They Gained 450 in 2014. So the net difference is - 568.5. Now, I'm of the mindset that Sammy Watkins was a #1 or #2 OVR draft pick. This just happened to be an insanely talented draft. So if he does in fact have the value of a #1 or #2 the Bills get an additional 800 to 1200 points in draft pick value. Which would put them well ahead even under conditions that aren't accurate (again, future picks are valued less). I tend to think the Bills got a guy more likely to be a 1 or 2 type then a number 4. Just because something costs a lot, it doesn't mean you still didn't get a great deal.
SBUffalo Posted May 13, 2014 Posted May 13, 2014 The way I always think about the draft is that you're trading a pick for a player. KzooMike - that's some impressive work, but the net loss includes the 4th pick. The terminology when drafting a player is that you "used" that pick on him, but it's the same idea as trading it.
OCinBuffalo Posted May 13, 2014 Posted May 13, 2014 The way I always think about the draft is that you're trading a pick for a player. KzooMike - that's some impressive work, but the net loss includes the 4th pick. The terminology when drafting a player is that you "used" that pick on him, but it's the same idea as trading it. What it comes down to is: are the 3 players(notice I didn't say picks...) that Cleveland/whoever will ultimately select with our picks...better than Watkins. Essentially: would you rather have those 3, or Watkins? The only way the Bills lose the trade? IF those three >Watkins. If they are =, or <, then the Bills win the trade, because if 1 player = 3? You make that trade 100% of the time. If you can put that much value into one player, on a roster of 11? You can always get people who are worth 1 player, in lots of places, the draft is just 1. You rarely get 1 player who is worth 3. RG3 is the perfect example: he is not worth the 5 players given up to get him. In fact, they need the 5 lost players to put around him now. Lost trade. (And really, other than Peyton Manning, who is worth 5 players?)
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