My issue with trading up

[maryland-bills-fan]

Next year's draft is going to be barren; as lot's of underclassman are coming out this year. Be aggressive this year; grab that star and give up a few picks in next year's draft...

No, trade down and grab several stars.

 

Look how we did last year. We traded down, got the QB they wanted, a starting LOT and nearly the rookie of the year on defense with those 3 picks in the first two rounds. Rather than one player. Duh.........

[Ronin]

That's why you have scouts. That's why you have to trust your front office.

 

LMAO

 

What is this, comedy hour.

[thewildrabbit]

I agree with you on the LG position costing us games and the WR coach mistake But Kolb getting hurt was bad luck, and Thad wasn't a rookie as you implied.

 

Also you have to remember that our scouts and GM felt EJ was the best QB in the nation (jury is still out obviously), they traded back, still got their QB, picked up an incredible LB with the free pick, and then grabbed two promising and highly regarded WR's in Woods and Goodwin with the next two picks.

 

Throw in Hughes, Lawson and Roby FA additions that were all productive NFL guys.

 

I think that's very solid, savvy front office moves not just on defense (as you agreed) but also offensively. The best college QB in the nation and two NFL starter-quality wide receivers in one draft.

 

I think Goodwin and Woods will have solid years, and if EJ does too, last year will be the best offensive draft we've had.

While the jury is out on EJ, it is also still out on Woods & Goodwin. Especially considering that is two WR's drafted in the 2nd & 3rd rounds just last year, AND they trade for WR Mike Williams this off season. Meanwhile all this talk of trading up is for who....? another WR in Sammy Watkins?

 

How many WR's do teams dress on game day, five? Stevie Johnson, Mike Williams, Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin, TJ Graham. So why all the talk about moving up to draft Sammy Watkins unless some are not getting it done.

 

 

Anyway, my point was while I think Whaley did a brilliant job in acquiring top defensive talent in free agency. He also stunk it up badly in replacing Levitre along with proper depth for that O line last year. Then this year he brought in another dumpster reclamation project in the worst player on the Rams O line last year to play LG. Which again, is not properly replacing the Bills best pass blocking linemen (Levitre) for a fleet of second year QB's.

 

I have no idea why this franchise has been so against building a top O line for so long, and so far it looks like that trend will continue again this year.

 

 

Just have the faith that with new ownership this culture of losing may finally wiped clean. So, it really doesn't matter what this regime does in its last year, as I highly doubt any of them will still be around for the 2015 season.

Edited May 2, 2014 by FeartheLosing

[Bill from NYC]

If you draft a player and he busts that's a shame but you are out just one pick. Whiff on a trade up and you burn two, three or more picks on that player.

 

Let's not forget the injury risk which is ALWAYS substantial.

[JPS]

Ahem. If you haven't been in the playoffs for 15 years, maybe its time to look back and see where you screwed up.

Right. I've been amazed at the thought of trading up as the Bills have many holes. But you know what…maybe it's time to do something different. What if DW could trade up for 2 third rounders? I'm not saying it's likely and there's no reason to debate it. But there IS a point where he's be stupid NOT to trade up.

[atlbillsfan1975]

'making a statement' is not a prudent reason for trading up. Getting an all pro that is agame changer is. The ONLY guy i see that fits that is Clowney. Even he has some questions due to how he approached last season. I feel once he is a pro he will act and be a pro. Clowney is the next premiere DE. I just do not think Buffalo is in the position to trade up and give away starters. Not when you are a 6-10 team. The Bills need another draft like last years.

[Wayne Cubed]

Right. I've been amazed at the thought of trading up as the Bills have many holes. But you know what…maybe it's time to do something different. What if DW could trade up for 2 third rounders? I'm not saying it's likely and there's no reason to debate it. But there IS a point where he's be stupid NOT to trade up.

 

I think it's entirely possible, and there is precedent with Miami last year. It's not like the Bills have been picking pro bowlers in the 3rd round recently (Graham, Sheppard who was traded away, Carrington, Youboty, Ellis). If you had the choice of taking one of those 3rd rounders or increasing your chances of hitting a home run in the 1st round, were talent is the highest, which would you choose?

[PromoTheRobot]

 

 

I think it's entirely possible, and there is precedent with Miami last year. It's not like the Bills have been picking pro bowlers in the 3rd round recently (Graham, Sheppard who was traded away, Carrington, Youboty, Ellis). If you had the choice of taking one of those 3rd rounders or increasing your chances of hitting a home run in the 1st round, were talent is the highest, which would you choose?

How far are you moving up trading a first and a third? How do you feel if it was a couple of firsts?

[KOKBILLS]

I think it's entirely possible, and there is precedent with Miami last year. It's not like the Bills have been picking pro bowlers in the 3rd round recently (Graham, Sheppard who was traded away, Carrington, Youboty, Ellis). If you had the choice of taking one of those 3rd rounders or increasing your chances of hitting a home run in the 1st round, were talent is the highest, which would you choose?

 

 

The historical dropoff...especially with the Bills...from the 2nd to the 3rd round is substantial...I'm not going to argue much about giving up a 3rd round pick...But I'll fight to the death over #41...

[Wayne Cubed]

How far are you moving up trading a first and a third? How do you feel if it was a couple of firsts?

 

To the first question, who knows how far you could move, but in last years draft Miami was able to move from 12 to 3 by swapping 1st's and giving up their 2nd. That's 9 spots for their 2nd, to get into the top 5. So the precedent is there, that it may not take as much as some believe it will to get to where the Bills want to be. IMO, I think they want to be in the top 6, so they can guarantee one of those elite players in this draft. Oakland's sitting at 5 and Cleveland at 4. I think it's completely possible to get to those positions giving up a 3rd. Especially with Oakland.

 

To the second question, I wouldn't be an advocate of that. But again, I don't think the Bills want to get to the #1 pick. Sure, they'll entertain the idea, hence the reports.

[JPS]

How far are you moving up trading a first and a third? How do you feel if it was a couple of firsts?

I think Whaley will be smart about it. He's going to say he's very interested in pick X, then offer compensation that will not cripple to growth of this team. I think giving away a 2nd or next year's 1st cripples the growth of the team and will not be seriously considered.

 

Now….two 3rds or a 3rd and a player??? Not likely, but hell yes if they go for it.

[NoSaint]

I think Whaley will be smart about it. He's going to say he's very interested in pick X, then offer compensation that will not cripple to growth of this team. I think giving away a 2nd or next year's 1st cripples the growth of the team and will not be seriously considered.

 

Now….two 3rds or a 3rd and a player??? Not likely, but hell yes if they go for it.

 

giving away a second "cripples the growth of the team" is a tad bit of hyperbole. come on guys.

 

that we might not get enough return on it is a fair discussion - but "cripples the growth of the team" is pretty ridiculous.

[Kellyto83TD]

We should trade up and get the #1 and a clear cut impact player. We lose say 2 #1's and a couple other picks so what?

 

PTR What is our record and how many playoffs have we made since 1999 with having most all of our 1st and 2nd round picks?

 

I say trade up, make a splash, take the best talent in the draft and have a DL That will hands down be the most talented in the NFL and lets try to make the playoffs NOW. Screw future years. Besides, if we have a playoff team in place, can extend our own, add a couple FA's to offset and draft well with the rest of the picks, we stay a playoff team

 

How far are you moving up trading a first and a third? How do you feel if it was a couple of firsts?

 

I trade this years first, next years first and a 3rd along with Stevie or CJ to move up to #1. Believe it or not, Houston most likely will bite as they can still get a QB at #9

[PromoTheRobot]

We should trade up and get the #1 and a clear cut impact player. We lose say 2 #1's and a couple other picks so what?

No player is ever clear cut anything.

 

PTR What is our record and how many playoffs have we made since 1999 with having most all of our 1st and 2nd round picks?

This is a false equivalency. You are suggesting the root of our failure is not trading up in drafts?

 

I say trade up, make a splash, take the best talent in the draft and have a DL That will hands down be the most talented in the NFL and lets try to make the playoffs NOW. Screw future years. Besides, if we have a playoff team in place, can extend our own, add a couple FA's to offset and draft well with the rest of the picks, we stay a playoff team

What could go wrong? I mean it's all so easy. Put all on "00" and let it ride!

 

I trade this years first, next years first and a 3rd along with Stevie or CJ to move up to #1. Believe it or not, Houston most likely will bite as they can still get a QB at #9

I'm glad you aren't the GM.

[NoSaint]

What could go wrong? I mean it's all so easy. Put all on "00" and let it ride!

 

a draft trade isnt putting your house on "00" its much more akin to putting a big bet on a poker hand. its a lot of research, and judgement, and a CALCULATED risk, not just dumb luck against incredible odds. and ill say again, i dont think its the equivalent of going all in, but it is a big play.

[YoloinOhio]

Mike Rodak ‏@mikerodak 4m

The Bills shouldn’t give up their 2015 first-round pick for Clowney, Watkins, or anyone else: http://es.pn/1kBmmBR

[PromoTheRobot]

a draft trade isnt putting your house on "00" its much more akin to putting a big bet on a poker hand. its a lot of research, and judgement, and a CALCULATED risk, not just dumb luck against incredible odds. and ill say again, i dont think its the equivalent of going all in, but it is a big play.

I'm referring to the scenario KellyTo83TD posted:

I say trade up, make a splash, take the best talent in the draft and have a DL That will hands down be the most talented in the NFL and lets try to make the playoffs NOW. Screw future years. Besides, if we have a playoff team in place, can extend our own, add a couple FA's to offset and draft well with the rest of the picks, we stay a playoff team

That is throwing your fate to the wind.

 

Take a look at this list: http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/alltimeno1

 

It's every #1 pick in NFL history. Look at the names and tell me how many of these players are worth trading a boatload of picks for? I see one name since 1990: Peyton Manning. (It's too soon to judge Andrew Luck.) Oh there are some very good players on that list too: Cam Newton, Jake Long, Mario Williams, Eli Manning. Would I trade 2 #1's and 2 #2's for them? No.

 

Now look at these names: Sam Bradford, Matt Stafford, JaMarcus Russell, David Carr, Courtney Brown, Tim Couch, KiJana Carter, Dan Wilkerson. How would you like to trade your future away for any of them?

[billykaykay]

You have to look at the delta in the draft class and the opportunity to draft a player with similar potential later in the draft.

 

Foolish people get caught up with the number of the draft pick. There is no guarantee that #3 draft pick is better than #4 or the #104 draft pick. The Bills only statement that matters is wins. Moving up is a meaningless statement if they do it for a player you can easily find later in the draft.

 

Generally if you spend two 1sts on one player it better be a franchise QB or a once in a generation player.

 

Clowney has been hyped since he was 16 years old as that type of player. I can't tell you if he is or not but a player with that type of potential would be an exception to the 2 1sts for a QB rule.

 

Trading up two 1sts for a RT, TE or LB would be beyond stupid. As much as Robinson, Ebron, and Mack are hyped. There are players that will be pro-bowl players at Rt, TE, and LB that are drafted in the 3rd round of the 2014 draft. You'd basically be spending extra picks on ESPN hype.

The Bills would be smart not to fall in love with any particular player. Trade down - get another 2 & maybe a 6. I agree with the poster who said that we must keep our 2015 #1 just in case EJ busts. 5 picks in the 1st 4 rounds sounds a lot better than 5 picks in the 1st 6 rounds.

Clowney the guy with the great measurables doesn't seem to be as good as Clowney the football player. Not saying that he is a bum. Just saying that there are players out there that could very easily be better players over the next 5 or 6 years. Kony & Donald come to mind.

[GunnerBill]

I just think we have to keep next year's #1 because we may be looking for a Quarterback. I think until you have a guy you know is your guy you have to keep that option of drafting one in the 1st the following year open. I don't want to re-open the draft a QB this year argument because I am more in favour of upgrading the talent around EJ this year for sure, and then judge him on the progress he does or doesn't make. But if there isn't any and you've gambled your next year's #1 away for Sammy Watkins then you are kinda forced to ride EJ out an extra year, or use your #2 through #7 picks next year to get up to the top 10-15 to take a Quarterback, or gamble on a likely project in the 2nd/3rd round.

[NoSaint]

 

I'm referring to the scenario KellyTo83TD posted:

 

That is throwing your fate to the wind.

 

Take a look at this list: http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/alltimeno1

 

It's every #1 pick in NFL history. Look at the names and tell me how many of these players are worth trading a boatload of picks for? I see one name since 1990: Peyton Manning. (It's too soon to judge Andrew Luck.) Oh there are some very good players on that list too: Cam Newton, Jake Long, Mario Williams, Eli Manning. Would I trade 2 #1's and 2 #2's for them? No.

 

Now look at these names: Sam Bradford, Matt Stafford, JaMarcus Russell, David Carr, Courtney Brown, Tim Couch, KiJana Carter, Dan Wilkerson. How would you like to trade your future away for any of them?

 

You are still arguing against the most extreme stance possible - that we must trade 1, 1 and 2 to get to number 1 simply because we haven't made the playoffs.

 

I'm not sure that focusing your energy on THAT discussion will prove worthwhile. If you come back to the reasonable crowd instead of arguing with the drunks under the bridge I think there is a realistic discussion that the bills (and a lot of us) are having about shipping some mess of a 2 or 3 and maybe a player to get up into the top 5 to get an elite pass rusher or receiver instead of a good one.