KOKBILLS Posted May 1, 2014 Posted May 1, 2014 You have to wonder what OBD is collectively thinking right now. With the owner passing last month all of them must be concerned about their future and the likelihood is they aren't going deep in the playoffs this coming season. They want to make both an impact and have a splash to impress future ownership they can get it done. And trading away a first next season with another pick this year is the price they might be willing to pay to do it. This is the strangest off-season in the history of the team for the obvious reason. And that's going to affect their decision making process. Agreed... And I'm not in the position Brandon, Whaley, and Marrone are in...So it's easy for me... But in all seriousness...If I was Whaley...I would first and foremost be hoping Evans slides to #9...If it cost me no more than a 3rd I would consider moving up to Atlanta's spot...The chances of a 3rd round pick ever becoming a regular starter is only around 30% I think...So I'm not opposed to trading a 3rd for a player like Evans... If not, I would much rather trade down a bit, hopefully grabbing an extra 2nd round pick, and bet on my scouting department going 3-3 in order to finally vault this team into Playoff contention...I would envision a trade down to the mid teens ending up with something like Martin/Ebron/maybe even Kouandjio in the 1st, and two from Amaro/Jordan Matthews/Seferian-Jenkins/Latimer/Chrichton/Hyde etc. in the 2nd...That would be my plan...I think it's safer, and smarter in the long run...And if you hit on all three picks it's a massive boost...
Dorkington Posted May 1, 2014 Posted May 1, 2014 I haven't seen any trade up scenarios that'd land us a player that'd single handedly change the course of this franchise. Why? Because none of the QBs in this draft are guarantees, and honestly I can't say that any would be better than EJ's potential. Frankly, I'm hoping we trade back, pick up a bunch of depth players.
NoSaint Posted May 1, 2014 Posted May 1, 2014 Agreed... And I'm not in the position Brandon, Whaley, and Marrone are in...So it's easy for me... But in all seriousness...If I was Whaley...I would first and foremost be hoping Evans slides to #9...If it cost me no more than a 3rd I would consider moving up to Atlanta's spot...The chances of a 3rd round pick ever becoming a regular starter is only around 30% I think...So I'm not opposed to trading a 3rd for a player like Evans... If not, I would much rather trade down a bit, hopefully grabbing an extra 2nd round pick, and bet on my scouting department going 3-3 in order to finally vault this team into Playoff contention...I would envision a trade down to the mid teens ending up with something like Martin/Ebron/maybe even Kouandjio in the 1st, and two from Amaro/Jordan Matthews/Seferian-Jenkins/Latimer/Chrichton/Hyde etc. in the 2nd...That would be my plan...I think it's safer, and smarter in the long run...And if you hit on all three picks it's a massive boost... If that department that your banking on going 3/3 says there's someone worth moving up for.... Seems like if trust them there too. Trust your boards and scouting/valuations being the big thing.
All_Pro_Bills Posted May 1, 2014 Posted May 1, 2014 I agree with this. I like Watkins as much as anybody and he was my first choice starting the "draft season". But there is no way I'd give away either this year's 2nd pick or next year's 1st round pick to get him. The simple reason is that IMO Eric Ebron's "floor" is he's going to be to be very near as effective as Watkins will be and Ebron should be there at #9. There should also be a very good OL prospect at the #44 pick that I'm counting on the Bills drafting. Would I trade this year's 3rd rounder, next year's 2nd rounder and Stevie for trading up to pick Watkins? That would be a possibility. Initially I wasn't sold on the idea of picking a TE at #9 but I've warmed up to Ebron after doing some thinking on the impact of guys like Gronkowski, Graham, and Davis. I can't see trading up when the 'grade' between picks is so small and the draft is pretty deep. More importantly is the goal, not to accumulate talent but to take the division title away from New England. So do you think the moves in free agency and adding Watkins, while surrendering some other picks that can be used to address other needs is enough to knock NE off the mountain in the AFC East? I don't think so because you need to set and achieve goals to win and to me the goals should be these below: Goal #1 - Improve the run defense. Because NE has not beaten the Bills recently as a result of Brady's outstanding play but rather through running the ball with outstanding results. Stopping their stretch play and draws. Forcing more 3rd and longs needs to happen. They added Spikes and Rivers. Do they need to do more via the draft? Goal #2 - Get the defense off the field on 3rd down. For all the sacks this defense gave up two many big plays of 20+ yards on the ground and through the air. Added the 2 LBs and Graham but lost Byrd. Do they need to do more via the draft? Goal #3 - Get more out of the QB position. Manuel showed some flashes of great play but was inconsistent and bad at times missing time with injuries. Draft isn't going to help here unless we look at a project for the long term and back up for now. Goal #4 - Protect the QB and increase running backs yards BEFORE contact rushing. Statistically the BIlls ranked high in the rushing attack but this was helped by a high number of carries and the running backs themselves gaining a lot of yardage after contact. You could probably count on one hand how many times FJ or CJ didn't get hit in the backfield on running plays. The QB played the part of a tackling dummy for most of the season. Its hard to believe any other team had their QBs hit more. They added Chris Williams to the O-line. Is that enough? Here a definite no. You'd think they'd be targeting an OT in round 2 if they go Ebron in round 1. But if you trade up that might mean no number 2 or maybe number 3 pick. Goal #5 - Add some offensive weapons. Here you might want to consider trading up for Watkins. But looking at the whole team from a perspective of 22 starters would his contribution be so much greater than that gained from Ebron and keeping those additional picks to address other areas? Moving up doesn't make sense to me.
BillsVet Posted May 1, 2014 Posted May 1, 2014 I haven't seen any trade up scenarios that'd land us a player that'd single handedly change the course of this franchise. Why? Because none of the QBs in this draft are guarantees, and honestly I can't say that any would be better than EJ's potential. Frankly, I'm hoping we trade back, pick up a bunch of depth players. Depending on how things shake out next Thursday, that's probably the best option. But I don't see anyone wanting to trade to 9. It's no man's land because by then the elite prospects are gone and the value for the next rung of players isn't enough to give up a 2nd IMO. I guess we'll see though because strange things happen.
Reed83HOF Posted May 1, 2014 Posted May 1, 2014 Next year's draft is going to be barren; as lot's of underclassman are coming out this year. Be aggressive this year; grab that star and give up a few picks in next year's draft...
KOKBILLS Posted May 1, 2014 Posted May 1, 2014 (edited) If that department that your banking on going 3/3 says there's someone worth moving up for.... Seems like if trust them there too. Trust your boards and scouting/valuations being the big thing. Fair enough...But I would be seriously surprised if that was the case...Especially in this Draft...Which is why I would still be shocked if the Bills gave up #41...It just does not seem to be the type of move Whaley would risk...I think, in general, scouts want more picks...Owners and Execs are more apt to get enamoured with a single guy...And that guy is more often a QB anyway...But we'll see...I like Watkins a lot...I simply have a fundamental belief that #9 and #41 combined will be better than any single player in this Draft...But I can also see how it would work out IF in fact Watkins becomes an All Pro... Edited May 1, 2014 by KOKBILLS
PromoTheRobot Posted May 1, 2014 Author Posted May 1, 2014 (edited) @ PromoTheRobot Apr 30 @ SalSports @ manecci Look how bent out of shape people get when a 3rd flops. What happens when you spend a 1, 1 & 2 and get average or worse? Sal Capaccio @ SalSports Apr 30 @ PromoTheRobot @ manecci You're assuming he flops. What of he flops, what if he flops? OK. What of he's a superstar? I know he could flop @ PromoTheRobot 19h @ SalSports @ manecci Spend 3 high draft picks on one player he better be an all pro. Anything less and you have wasted those picks. Michael Necci @ manecci 13h @ PromoTheRobot @ SalSports The draft is a gamble, you can say what you just said about any pick at any point in the draft. @ PromoTheRobot 6h @ manecci @ SalSports Flipping a coin is a gamble: 1-in-2. Spinning a roulette wheel is a gamble: 1-in-38. Which do you bet your team on? Sal Capaccio @ SalSports 6h @ PromoTheRobot @ manecci …I don't need to be convinced of the gamble it is. I know that. I'm telling you I think they should take it. Edited May 1, 2014 by PromoTheRobot
NoSaint Posted May 2, 2014 Posted May 2, 2014 (edited) Not to be rude PTR but I feel like instead of realizing some people are ok with different risk tolerances you are trying to explain what the incredibly obvious risk is, which comes off a little condescending in that exchange. Clearly if you trade up you have more on the line with the pick. Everyone here and in twitter clearly understands that. Likewise a high price free agent better perform great if you give him guaranteed dollars. Sometimes you have to make a bold move and hit on it if you want to be great. Whether or not Watkins is your guy, you'll have to take some chances - and it'll suck when you miss but I dont think its the crippling effect you portray. You could miss on 9 and 41 and still be a competitive team. Seattle gave big bucks to Flynn, traded for whitehurst, and started a 3rd round rookie qb- they swung and missed a few times but hit a homerun eventually. They also traded premium picks and gave huge dollars to a similar WR with waaaay more baggage and less durability. He missed the whole year and they were still great. 1 move wrong won't kill you but the right one can make a HUGE positive difference, if we see that guy (whether Watkins or clowney or Mack or someone in free agency or 2014s draft) I hope they go get him even if it's risky (I also don't think 1, 1 & 2 is really in the discussion here) Edited May 2, 2014 by NoSaint
Manther Posted May 2, 2014 Posted May 2, 2014 so, you're sayin' we should have thrown the Miami & Panther games? Ya, we should have thrown the 2nd game of the season.
PromoTheRobot Posted May 2, 2014 Author Posted May 2, 2014 Not to be rude PTR but I feel like instead of realizing some people are ok with different risk tolerances you are trying to explain what the incredibly obvious risk is, which comes off a little condescending in that exchange. Clearly if you trade up you have more on the line with the pick. Everyone here and in twitter clearly understands that. Likewise a high price free agent better perform great if you give him guaranteed dollars. Sometimes you have to make a bold move and hit on it if you want to be great. Whether or not Watkins is your guy, you'll have to take some chances - and it'll suck when you miss but I dont think its the crippling effect you portray. You could miss on 9 and 41 and still be a competitive team. Seattle gave big bucks to Flynn, traded for whitehurst, and started a 3rd round rookie qb- they swung and missed a few times but hit a homerun eventually. They also traded premium picks and gave huge dollars to a similar WR with waaaay more baggage and less durability. He missed the whole year and they were still great. 1 move wrong won't kill you but the right one can make a HUGE positive difference, if we see that guy (whether Watkins or clowney or Mack or someone in free agency or 2014s draft) I hope they go get him even if it's risky (I also don't think 1, 1 & 2 is really in the discussion here) I find that people only look at the positive outcome and ignore the odds of getting that outcome. And you are incorrect about making a wrong move. It could definitely set your team back years if you whiff on a huge trade up. Optimism runs high going into the draft. It's like FAO Schwartz at Christmas time. All those shiny new football players. We imagine all of them will be great. Some we feel are automatic slam dunks. No one wants to be reminded how so-and-so was such a big draft hype and did nothing in the NFL. I am risk averse. I don't believe you have to make a bold move to build a team. In fact I see such a move as desperation. And to say we have to do something bold because of "14 years no playoffs" is absolutely the worst reason to make a move! PTR
machine gun kelly Posted May 2, 2014 Posted May 2, 2014 I find that people only look at the positive outcome and ignore the odds of getting that outcome. And you are incorrect about making a wrong move. It could definitely set your team back years if you whiff on a huge trade up. Optimism runs high going into the draft. It's like FAO Schwartz at Christmas time. All those shiny new football players. We imagine all of them will be great. Some we feel are automatic slam dunks. No one wants to be reminded how so-and-so was such a big draft hype and did nothing in the NFL. I am risk averse. I don't believe you have to make a bold move to build a team. In fact I see such a move as desperation. And to say we have to do something bold because of "14 years no playoffs" is absolutely the worst reason to make a move! PTR Nothing against the previous post, but I agree with PTR. I've made comments if it were two second rounders over two years I can see the Clowney move, but multiple 1st rounders and a later round makes no sense. Look at the Carson Palmer trade and how many high end picks Cincy has and how it is helping that team. Conversely, look at Oakland's desperation and how they are in a position as bad as us. If Houston goes with Manzel and the Rams were reasonable, I would say maybe, but of too rich, then no, and just use Whaley's skills which have been sharp the couple of year's and we win by adding talent.
NoSaint Posted May 2, 2014 Posted May 2, 2014 I find that people only look at the positive outcome and ignore the odds of getting that outcome. And you are incorrect about making a wrong move. It could definitely set your team back years if you whiff on a huge trade up. Optimism runs high going into the draft. It's like FAO Schwartz at Christmas time. All those shiny new football players. We imagine all of them will be great. Some we feel are automatic slam dunks. No one wants to be reminded how so-and-so was such a big draft hype and did nothing in the NFL. I am risk averse. I don't believe you have to make a bold move to build a team. In fact I see such a move as desperation. And to say we have to do something bold because of "14 years no playoffs" is absolutely the worst reason to make a move! PTR Lucky I never implied that reason. Even remotely. Ultimately what the discussion comes down to is you are more risk averse- which is fine. If presented with "collect picks because you are bound to miss" or "identify great talents to fit your team and put yourself in positions to obtain them" I'd much rather the latter is our GMs philosophy. We did it to get our qb last year and it added a pick, maybe this year it costs a pick.... We will see what opportunities exist soon enough (up, down or at 9)
KOKBILLS Posted May 2, 2014 Posted May 2, 2014 Not to be rude PTR but I feel like instead of realizing some people are ok with different risk tolerances you are trying to explain what the incredibly obvious risk is, which comes off a little condescending in that exchange. Clearly if you trade up you have more on the line with the pick. Everyone here and in twitter clearly understands that. Likewise a high price free agent better perform great if you give him guaranteed dollars. Sometimes you have to make a bold move and hit on it if you want to be great. Whether or not Watkins is your guy, you'll have to take some chances - and it'll suck when you miss but I dont think its the crippling effect you portray. You could miss on 9 and 41 and still be a competitive team. Seattle gave big bucks to Flynn, traded for whitehurst, and started a 3rd round rookie qb- they swung and missed a few times but hit a homerun eventually. They also traded premium picks and gave huge dollars to a similar WR with waaaay more baggage and less durability. He missed the whole year and they were still great. 1 move wrong won't kill you but the right one can make a HUGE positive difference, if we see that guy (whether Watkins or clowney or Mack or someone in free agency or 2014s draft) I hope they go get him even if it's risky (I also don't think 1, 1 & 2 is really in the discussion here) I totally agree with you on the Seattle front...But what they did to insure none of those moves had a crippling effect was to stockpile Draft picks...39 picks over the past 4 years makes gambling a heck of a lot safer than trading away #41 overall coming off a 6-10 season and only coming out of the deepest Draft in recent memory with a total of 5 picks... I just don't think the fact that the two best teams in football (Seattle and San Fran) combined for a total of 75 Draft picks in the past 4 years can be ignored...I think its proof positive that great teams still build through the Draft by stockpiling...I think it's exactly what the Bills should do...At the very least until they actually make the Playoffs instead of talking about how close they are to doing so...
NoSaint Posted May 2, 2014 Posted May 2, 2014 (edited) I guess, ultimately, if you don't trust your guys to know when it's worth it to pull the trigger on a trade up, why trust them with your picks or to trade down? I'm not saying these guys are can't miss or the type you move for, but if they believe that Watkins is great and they will only be getting good players at 9 and their 2 or 3 that they trust that judgement and go get him. We have A LOT of good players now, more than I think this board often realizes, I am very much picking up the vibe that they see a couple SPECIAL players that they are lacking. What if we give up a 1 and 3 and then trade back from 41 for an extra 4? Same volume of picks, just resorted? Edited May 2, 2014 by NoSaint
BuffaloRebound Posted May 2, 2014 Posted May 2, 2014 Here's what we have left if we trade up 1........... #1 and nothing and nothing next year and no first in 2016 2........... #2, #73, 5th 7th, LOSE next year’s 1st round pick 3.............#3, 5th, 7th 4.............#4, #73 4th, 7th 5.............#5, #41, 5th 7th 6.............#6, #41, 4th, 5th 7.............#7, #41, #73 8.............#8, #41, #73, 4th 9.............#9, #41, #73, 4th, 5th, 7th If we do actually trade up into the top 4, I think it involves Stevie or Spiller. Bortles/Manziel, Spiller, and next year's 2nd for Clowney (this trade would be consummated after Houston selects Clowney and we select one of the QB's - can't see Houston trading with us unless they know they can get Manziel or Bortles). #9, Stevie, and a 3rd for Cleveland's #4. Getting up to #5, 6, or 7 will probably not cost more than a 3rd rounder. If I were Whaley, this years 2nd rounder and next years 1st rounder would be off limits. Everything else including Stevie and Spiller would be fair game.
PromoTheRobot Posted May 2, 2014 Author Posted May 2, 2014 No Saint, you didn't imply the Bills had make a move because of the playoff drought but Sal did.
KOKBILLS Posted May 2, 2014 Posted May 2, 2014 What if we give up a 1 and 3 and then trade back from 41 for an extra 4? Same volume of picks, just resorted? I can pretty much live with most move-up scenarios as long as they don't involve giving up #41 this year...Just too much talent in this Draft to give up #41 IMHO...3rd round picks don't usually have nearly the impact a 2nd round pick does historically...Not to mention a high 2nd like the Bills hold...And trading down in the 2nd this year is not all that bad...The Bills could still get a very good player later in the 2nd...
Nitro Posted May 2, 2014 Posted May 2, 2014 No one in this draft inspires me go to WOW. It is a deep draft and moving up to get a player when the differences between the top talent at each position is minimal. I subscribe to the sit at 9 and take the best player off the board. If you can get more draft picks to drop to no farther than 15th, go for it. The Bills are in a very good position.
GunnerBill Posted May 2, 2014 Posted May 2, 2014 (edited) Depending on how things shake out next Thursday, that's probably the best option. But I don't see anyone wanting to trade to 9. It's no man's land because by then the elite prospects are gone and the value for the next rung of players isn't enough to give up a 2nd IMO. I guess we'll see though because strange things happen. I think it's a possibility if Lewan is still there. There are a couple of teams, New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys who need a big, nasty guy to come in and play left tackle immediately. They wouldn't have to give up a bunch to get there.... I think the Giants could do it for a 4th (maybe a 3rd) the Cowboys maybe would have to give up their 2nd rounder, but that trade favours the Bills so maybe they give up the 2nd rounder but swap 3rds..... If only 1 QB goes and the three tackles, two receivers, two pass rushers have all gone then I think someone coming up to trade with the Bills is unlikely. In that scenario I agree with your no mans land comment. Edited May 2, 2014 by GunnerBill
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