Kirby Jackson Posted April 30, 2014 Posted April 30, 2014 (edited) Jesus God no. The NFL is riddled with can't miss college wide receivers barely hanging onto their jobs. The Bills still need to stockpile talent, not risk multiple picks on hope. If anything trade down. It's easy to say but every draft is different. I do not think that 1 guy picked in the top 10 last year would go in the top 10 if they were in this draft (maybe Ziggy Ansah). Watkins, Mathews, Mack and Clowney are guys with extremely high floors IMO. Clowney may never reach his potential but his physical skills dictate that he will produce sacks. Those other 3 are 10 year starters with potential to be 10 year pro bowl guys. When picking in the top 10 you want a guy with upside but also a guy that doesn't have much downside. Not all prospects are the same (they are not all crapshoots). It would be shocking for example for Jake Mathews to not be a good NFL OL. He may not get a ton better but he has been bred to play the position. He may never have the career of Greg Robinson but he is a much safer pick. Edited April 30, 2014 by Kirby Jackson
KOKBILLS Posted April 30, 2014 Posted April 30, 2014 (edited) if SJ13 was in the swap then I don't see any need to trade anything past swapping 1st round picks and giving SJ13..no other draft picks would be needed for the trade...maybe a 7th for a little extra ummph..but some are saying SJ13 should be worth a 3rd at least this would still allow Cleveland to pick a good wr like Evans and the rookie pay scale would be lower due to later pick...plus theyd get a good slot reciever in SJ13..it's a win-win as far as i can tell Buffalo could even possibly get a 6th round pick back..so I can see: Bills #9 plus SJ13 for Browns #4 and #180(6th rd) Totally agree with this take... Using the Value Chart as guide the Bills...And yes I know it's only a guide...A close to even value trade would be Cleveland giving up #4 and #145 (5th), for the Bills #9, and #41...But then when you throw Johnson into the equation even that is too much for the Bills to give up...Stevie is at worst our 3rd WR, and it can be argued he's our best WR...He's had 3700 yds the past 4 years combined...He has value...Especially to a team like Cleveland...I think Stevie is worth at least Cleveland's second 3rd round pick (#83 overall)...So to me at least it would have to be #9, #41, and Stevie in return for #4, #83, and #145...Even then I don't love the trade...But at least it would be fairer... Edited April 30, 2014 by KOKBILLS
1billsfan Posted April 30, 2014 Posted April 30, 2014 (edited) Here's the thing: the general consensus is that there's 6 elite prospects in this draft. Those 6 guys are: Clowney Mack Robinson Matthews Watkins Evans Even if 2 QBs go in the top 8, I don't see any of those 6 guys sliding...odds are the Bills would have to move up to get one of them. I think the consensus is that there are 4 elite prospects...Clowney, Robinson, Watkins and Mack. Matthews and Evans are argued over from what I've read. I think that they're both on the 2nd tier level, along with players like Ebron and Donald. Edited April 30, 2014 by 1billsfan
thebandit27 Posted April 30, 2014 Posted April 30, 2014 I think the consensus is that there are 4 elite prospects...Clowney, Robinson, Watkins and Mack. Matthews and Evans are argued over from what I've read. I think that they're both on the 2nd tier level, along with players like Ebron and Donald. I would say that within the "elite" group those 4 are generally rated higher than the other two, yes. From what I've seen/heard, it's generally those 6 and then everyone else.
KOKBILLS Posted April 30, 2014 Posted April 30, 2014 Here's the thing: the general consensus is that there's 6 elite prospects in this draft. Those 6 guys are: Clowney Mack Robinson Matthews Watkins Evans Even if 2 QBs go in the top 8, I don't see any of those 6 guys sliding...odds are the Bills would have to move up to get one of them. True...But why is that even necessary? Maybe those guys are elite...We'll see...But there are very solid players behind them that will contribute to any NFL roster...#9 and #41 is too much to give up for any of these "elite" guys...I don't care who it is...This is a 6-10 team that has several needs no matter what the GM says...No one prospect is going to propel us into the playoffs...Unless EJ Manuel can still be considered a prospect...The team still needs depth and talent...I don't see why they would get enamored in the difference between supposed elite players and non-elite players in a Draft that everyone agrees is the deepest in recent memory...
thebandit27 Posted April 30, 2014 Posted April 30, 2014 True...But why is that even necessary? Maybe those guys are elite...We'll see...But there are very solid players behind them that will contribute to any NFL roster...#9 and #41 is too much to give up for any of these "elite" guys...I don't care who it is...This is a 6-10 team that has several needs no matter what the GM says...No one prospect is going to propel us into the playoffs...Unless EJ Manuel can still be considered a prospect...The team still needs depth and talent...I don't see why they would get enamored in the difference between supposed elite players and non-elite players in a Draft that everyone agrees is the deepest in recent memory... Two thoughts: 1) I agree that giving up pick #41 is too much...I would not be in favor of doing so in this draft 2) The reason a team might move up would be that they genuinely feel that the guy they're getting will be a cornerstone of their franchise for a long time, and if they can move up and get him for a reasonable cost, they'd do so
BuffaloRebound Posted April 30, 2014 Posted April 30, 2014 I think Spiller plus our 1st this year and 2nd next year to Houston is more plausible than the Cleveland trade. Wouldn't be surprised if Stevie is traded on draft day, but think Spiller is more likely to be traded. Houston has a lot of pieces already. Spiller and Fitzpatrick would be an upgrade over last year and give them a chance to compete for a playoff spot while Bortles sits for a year.
NoSaint Posted April 30, 2014 Posted April 30, 2014 Why does history teach us that? Recent history doesn't reflect that at all: 2010 Top 6 Bradford - good Suh - pro bowler McCoy - pro bowler Trent Williams - pro bowler Eric Berry - pro bowler Russell Okung - pro bowler 2011 - Top 6 Newton - pro bowler Miller - pro bowler Dareus - pro bowler AJ Green - pro bowler Peterson - pro bowler Julio Jones - pro bowler 2012 - Top 6 Luck - pro bowler RG3 - pro bowler Richardson - I'd call him a bust so far Kalil - pro bowler Blackmon - bust so far Claiborne - good and blackmon, on the field, has played very well when he can get there. talent isnt the issue, and i dont think off field stuff will be any concern for watkins.
thebandit27 Posted April 30, 2014 Posted April 30, 2014 and blackmon, on the field, has played very well when he can get there. talent isnt the issue, and i dont think off field stuff will be any concern for watkins. Very good point...I was playing it conservatively so as not to over-state my thesis...and you're right (as far as we can tell) about Watkins.
Kirby Jackson Posted April 30, 2014 Posted April 30, 2014 (edited) Two thoughts: 1) I agree that giving up pick #41 is too much...I would not be in favor of doing so in this draft 2) The reason a team might move up would be that they genuinely feel that the guy they're getting will be a cornerstone of their franchise for a long time, and if they can move up and get him for a reasonable cost, they'd do so One more thing to add to that Bandit is that with the team for sale they are in win now mode. If they can get a guy like Watkins for example that they think can produce 1,000 yards and 8 TDs as a rookie then their playoff chances are increased. They have solid WR depth but as NoSaint brought up earlier they don't have a pass catcher (TE or WR) that would rank in the top 20 at his position. If you have an opportunity to surround those solid players with a star your talent goes from pretty good to great. Edited April 30, 2014 by Kirby Jackson
dave mcbride Posted April 30, 2014 Posted April 30, 2014 (edited) True...But why is that even necessary? Maybe those guys are elite...We'll see...But there are very solid players behind them that will contribute to any NFL roster...#9 and #41 is too much to give up for any of these "elite" guys...I don't care who it is...This is a 6-10 team that has several needs no matter what the GM says...No one prospect is going to propel us into the playoffs...Unless EJ Manuel can still be considered a prospect...The team still needs depth and talent...I don't see why they would get enamored in the difference between supposed elite players and non-elite players in a Draft that everyone agrees is the deepest in recent memory... If you TRULY believe a guy is an elite, difference making talent, that he won't be there at #9, and that the choices you'll have will only be pretty good players, you make the move. When I look at trade-ups in the last decade, Darelle Revis comes to mind. The Jets TRULY believed he was one of the very best players in the draft, and they gave up a decent amount to move up and get him. Moreover, they also moved up to get David Harris in that same draft: http://www.nytimes.c...jets.html?_r=1 . I think we'd all agree that it worked out great for the Jets, who despite losing a few picks ended up with cornerstone players and a dominant defense for a number of years. Edited April 30, 2014 by dave mcbride
KOKBILLS Posted April 30, 2014 Posted April 30, 2014 Two thoughts: 1) I agree that giving up pick #41 is too much...I would not be in favor of doing so in this draft 2) The reason a team might move up would be that they genuinely feel that the guy they're getting will be a cornerstone of their franchise for a long time, and if they can move up and get him for a reasonable cost, they'd do so I would agree with #2 if it was a QB or a player like Megatron...The only player in the top 5 this year that I think will have that kind of impact is Greg Robinson...And so far I have not heard that he is the target...And even for Robinson, who I think is the best prospect in this Draft, believing he has Orlando Pace-type potential, I still would not give up #41 to get him...So...In a nutshell...If Whaley believes that about Watkins he's definitely not going to get my approval...Though admittedly he could, and should care less...
Frez Posted April 30, 2014 Posted April 30, 2014 My sources tell me........Buffalo will take Round 1. Anthony Barr Round 2. Kony Ealy The draft is deep with offensive lineman and WR's this year.
TPS Posted April 30, 2014 Posted April 30, 2014 Jesus God no. The NFL is riddled with can't miss college wide receivers barely hanging onto their jobs. The Bills still need to stockpile talent, not risk multiple picks on hope. If anything trade down. Holy crap! Look who the cat dragged in!Cheers old-timer
KOKBILLS Posted April 30, 2014 Posted April 30, 2014 (edited) If you TRULY believe a guy is an elite, difference making talent, that he won't be there at #9, and that the choices you'll have will only be pretty good players, you make the move. When I look at trade-ups in the last decade, Darelle Revis comes to mind. The Jets TRULY believed he was one of the very best players in the draft, and they gave up a decent amount to move up and get him. Moreover, they also moved up to get David Harris in that same draft: http://www.nytimes.c...jets.html?_r=1 . I think we'd all agree that it worked out great for the Jets, who despite losing a few picks ended up with cornerstone players and a dominant defense for a number of years. There's always an example from both sides (though I should add the Jets already had two 2nd round picks that year...So giving up one to get up for Revis was much easier to do)...I accept that...It's a philosophy thing with me...I don't think it's smart team building...I did not think Drafting Spiller was good team building philosophy...We won't know for a while now if in fact this does happen...But I'm more than comfortable going on record saying I'm against it...I'll take what I can get at #9 and #41 over anybody they can get at #4 and feel pretty comfortable that I did the right thing...But I admit that's just my way of looking at it...In fact, if they do it, I'll hope like hell they are right about this one... My sources tell me........Buffalo will take Round 1. Anthony Barr Round 2. Kony Ealy The draft is deep with offensive lineman and WR's this year. I would literally jump off the nearest bridge... Thing is the nearest bridge to me is not a far fall and I would likely only end up with a minor sprain... Edited April 30, 2014 by KOKBILLS
thebandit27 Posted April 30, 2014 Posted April 30, 2014 There's always an example from both sides...I accept that...It's a philosophy thing with me...I don't think it's smart team building...I did not think Drafting Spiller was good team building philosophy...We won't know for a while now if in fact this does happen...But I'm more than comfortable going on record saying I'm against it...I'll take what I can get at #9 and #41 over anybody they can get at #4 and feel pretty comfortable that I did the right thing...But I admit that's just my way of looking at it...In fact, if they do it, I'll hope like hell they are right about this one... Would you feel differently if it took, say, a 3rd rounder to move up instead? Just curious I would literally jump off the nearest bridge... Thing is the nearest bridge to me is not a far fall and I would likely only end up with a minor sprain... I wouldn't jump, but man, I'd be tempted.
Rob's House Posted April 30, 2014 Posted April 30, 2014 My sources tell me........Buffalo will take Round 1. Anthony Barr Round 2. Kony Ealy The draft is deep with offensive lineman and WR's this year. My first thought was "Oh HELL No!" but then I realized that if we took them in reverse order I'd be okay with it. Not happy, but okay.
KOKBILLS Posted April 30, 2014 Posted April 30, 2014 Would you feel differently if it took, say, a 3rd rounder to move up instead? Just curious I wouldn't jump, but man, I'd be tempted. Yes I would absolutely feel differently about a 3rd in comparison to a 2nd...I think that tips the trade in our favor because you would basically be getting the value of #52 overall for Stevie... And you should jump with me!!! It would be fun!!!
Big Turk Posted April 30, 2014 Posted April 30, 2014 Here's the thing, history teaches us that of those 6 elite prospects maybe 2 will actually turn out to be elite, 2 will turn out to be pretty good to good, and 2 will turn out to be good to busts. Trading up is for suckers. Unless its for a QB and u better be right on the pick
CountryCletus Posted April 30, 2014 Posted April 30, 2014 If Sammy Watkins is there at 4, the Bills will trade their 1st, 2nd and Stevie Johnson to Cleveland for the rights to take Sammy Watkins. Something could change, but as of today, this is on the table...Not sure this makes us better, but they see something in Sammy and envision a long term relationship with EJ and him. If Sammy is not there, they are more than happy with Matthews or Ebron at 9. No way any team gives up that much to move up 5 spots... And IF we had that deal locked up, it would be "if our guy is there at 4, would you be willing to deal?" They never mention names.... Nice shot in the dark though...
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