"Draft Value" is dumb. Take BPA and dont look back

[maddenboy]

My thing has been this. For more than a decade.

 

I think "draft value" is kinda stupid in the first round (other than RB of course - never ever take a RB in the first round. Ever. Seriously). People say "oh, you cant take a RT or TE or OG at 9," etc. I understand its a risk/reward thing. But if you cant find good players (meaning you cant properly estimate the reward), then hire better scouts.

 

If you look back at past 1st round drafts, maybe 10-12 of the 32 guys turn out to be worth anything. If you think you know who one of those guys is, take him. Whether you pick 1, or 9, or 25. For example, look at this "crock-of-shtt" draft. There arent really 5 guys worth a damn in the first round:

 

http://www.nfl.com/d...aft?season=2008

 

And if you tell me that Kiper-types said "oh, flacco isnt a good value at 11" or "Ryan Clady isnt good value at 11" I'd say you're stupid. Again. Only a handful of these guys will be worth a damn. No matter where you pick, if you think a guy will be a true NFL player, take him and never look back. Seriously, scroll through the first 3-4 rounds of that draft and really see how much garbage there is.

 

If you draft enuf guys who are worth a damn, regardless of position or Kiper-esque "value," and hire decent coaches, you will soon have a good team.

 

(I guess this is another way of saying to take BPA, almost regardless of position. And I kinda trust Whaley to do this. If he thinks HaHa is the best true NFL player still remaining at 9, i'll try my best to be cool with that)

Edited April 23, 2014 by maddenboy

[1B4IDie]

My thing has been this. For more than a decade.

 

I think "draft value" is kinda stupid in the first round (other than RB of course - never ever take a RB in the first round. Ever. Seriously). People say "oh, you cant take a RT or TE or OG at 9," etc. I understand its a risk/reward thing. But if you cant find good players (meaning you cant properly estimate the reward), then hire better scouts.

 

If you look back at past 1st round drafts, maybe 10-12 of the 32 guys turn out to be worth anything. If you think you know who one of those guys is, take him. Whether you pick 1, or 9, or 25. For example, look at this "crock-of-shtt" draft. There arent really 5 guys worth a damn in the first round:

 

http://www.nfl.com/d...aft?season=2008

 

And if you tell me that Kiper-types said "oh, flacco isnt a good value at 11" or "Ryan Clady isnt good value at 11" I'd say you're stupid. Again. Only a handful of these guys will be worth a damn. No matter where you pick, if you think a guy will be a true NFL player, take him and never look back. Seriously, scroll through the first 3-4 rounds of that draft and really see how much garbage there is.

 

If you draft enuf guys who are worth a damn, regardless of position or Kiper-esque "value," and hire decent coaches, you will soon have a good team.

 

(I guess this is another way of saying to take BPA, almost regardless of position. And I kinda trust Whaley to do this. If he thinks HaHa is the best player still remaining at 9, i'll try my best to be cool with that)

How enlightened.

Coming from the "I don't want the 3rd best in Madden rating" of anything. If you keep this type of reasonable thinking up I'd suggest that you can change your handle to MaddenMan

Yes rankings and ratings are not the only determining factor in the draft. Rankings and ratings are tools that a decision maker may use to make a decision but they are not gospel. They are just one tool GMs may be looking at other qualities of the person as well as measurable and scout rankings. The GM should decide to draft the human being that they believe will help their team the most.

Edited April 23, 2014 by Why So Serious?

[maddenboy]

I'm not really speaking to GMs. I'm sure they dont read this board much.

 

I'm speaking to fans, like the excellent ones here at TBD, who often say we cant draft this-or-that at 9 because the value isnt there.

 

I'm arguing for a change to that thinking. I'm arguing for BPA (which was not my original intention, but i'm forced to admit is the result of what i'm saying). I'm arguing for real NFL players and i'm arguing for a front office who will pull the trigger, regardless of draft slot or conventional thinking.

 

Its kinda like if your wife is a gourmet chef. You dont go to the market thinking "i'm going to buy broccoli because we're out of broccoli" or "I'm going to buy shrimp because its on sale." Rather, you should think "i'm going to buy the best, freshest food they have, almost regardless of price, and trust my wife to make something delicious with it." Because buying something almost-rotten because its a "value" is dumb.

Edited April 23, 2014 by maddenboy

[maryland-bills-fan]

Your argument is self destructing. You argue that "....Iwhich is stating that we can not predict which player is going to live up to his perceived potential...... and then proceed to argue that we CAN predict who the best player available IS and we should take that guy. Be consistent or go to Washington and join the ruling elites!

Edited April 23, 2014 by maryland-bills-fan

[maddenboy]

wait. What?

 

I am not saying we cannot predict which player will live up to potential.

 

I'm saying we can. But to say "this player will be excellent, but we cant take him at 9 because he's a RT or OG, etc." is the problem.

 

5 years from now we will look back at this first round draft and see that only 7-10 players were worth a shtt. If you keep drafting real NFL players, regardless of position, instead of Aaron Maybin or John McCargo, you will soon have a good team.

Edited April 23, 2014 by maddenboy

[Johnny Hammersticks]

What if there was the best field goal kicker ever? I mean, like a guy who can consistently drill FG's from 70+ yards. Do we take him at 9?

[Kellyto83TD]

My thing has been this. For more than a decade.

 

I think "draft value" is kinda stupid in the first round (other than RB of course - never ever take a RB in the first round. Ever. Seriously). People say "oh, you cant take a RT or TE or OG at 9," etc. I understand its a risk/reward thing. But if you cant find good players (meaning you cant properly estimate the reward), then hire better scouts.

 

If you look back at past 1st round drafts, maybe 10-12 of the 32 guys turn out to be worth anything. If you think you know who one of those guys is, take him. Whether you pick 1, or 9, or 25. For example, look at this "crock-of-shtt" draft. There arent really 5 guys worth a damn in the first round:

 

http://www.nfl.com/d...aft?season=2008

 

And if you tell me that Kiper-types said "oh, flacco isnt a good value at 11" or "Ryan Clady isnt good value at 11" I'd say you're stupid. Again. Only a handful of these guys will be worth a damn. No matter where you pick, if you think a guy will be a true NFL player, take him and never look back. Seriously, scroll through the first 3-4 rounds of that draft and really see how much garbage there is.

 

If you draft enuf guys who are worth a damn, regardless of position or Kiper-esque "value," and hire decent coaches, you will soon have a good team.

 

(I guess this is another way of saying to take BPA, almost regardless of position. And I kinda trust Whaley to do this. If he thinks HaHa is the best true NFL player still remaining at 9, i'll try my best to be cool with that)

 

I would say honestly after reading this post, you stick to your namesake and let the real GM's keep making the decisions.

[Best Player Available]

What if there was the best field goal kicker ever? I mean, like a guy who can consistently drill FG's from 70+ yards. Do we take him at 9?

well Oakland took the polish cannon at 17 and that worked out.

[maddenboy]

What if there was the best field goal kicker ever? I mean, like a guy who can consistently drill FG's from 70+ yards. Do we take him at 9?

 

Seriously? Heck yeah. All I have to do is cross midfield and I have a sure 3 points,. Duhhh.

 

But to your actual point, I did say that RB is excepted from the discussion. Of course punter and kicker and gunner, etc. are also excepted.

 

I'm just saying that out of the first 32 guys on May 8, only a handful will be worth anything down the road. If you, as a front office, think you know who one of those guys is, take him regardless of what kiper or TBD or anybody else says.

 

Dont gamble, basically. We arent just 1 or 2 players away. Gimme some solid drafts. gimme some real NFL players, and zero gamble players.

[GunnerBill]

I think what you are essentially asking for goes further than BPA. You are asking for a "safest BPA" attitude to drafting. Because you are (rightly) saying that there are maybe 15 out of 32 first rounders each year that live up to something close to that billing. So take the OT's this year for example. The perception is very much that Greg Robinson has the potential to be an elite NFL tackle... but it would be at least a bit of a risk to take him because as a pass blocker he isn't there yet. If I'm a GM maybe I think Robinson has a 75% chance of being a 100% player, whereas I think Jake Matthews has a 95% chancwe of being an 80% player. Now I know you are saying disregard positions, I'm just using that as an example, substitute Robinson for Manziel or Watkins if you like. From what you've said I think you would be in favour of drafting Matthews in that scenario, because I (as an imaginairy GM) believe I've found a guy there who is pretty much a slam dunk NFL level talent.

Edited April 23, 2014 by GunnerBill

[BillsBytheBay]

I think all of this value, and movment up and down the board is just the perspective of outsiders. I'd be willing to bet that in any GM's scouting dept, or draft room, perspectives are very different.

[thebandit27]

What if there was the best field goal kicker ever? I mean, like a guy who can consistently drill FG's from 70+ yards. Do we take him at 9?

 

Interestingly enough, there are only 2 players from the 1st round of the 2000 draft still playing in the NFL...Sebastian Janikowski and John Abraham. Now, I'm not advocating taking a kicker in the 1st round, but I do find it interesting that he's one of the two the last men standing.

 

As a sidebar: I've always felt that there's got to be someone, somewhere on this earth with the ability to make 70-yard FGs consistently and the desire to make money doing it...if I were a GM, I'd have a scout on staff that did nothing but travel the globe looking for this person. Then again, I'm kind of crazy, so...

[PromoTheRobot]

Mel Kiper and the "media draft complex" have invented a universe of meaningless concepts like draft value. It's the equivalent of bragging you saved 50 cents on a pound of bologna. To me the only thing that matters is does the player you drafted or signed as a UDFA help you win. I don't care if every draft pick is a bust if every UDFA signing makes you a Super Bowl contender. Only the result matters, not how you got there.

[NoSaint]

Mel Kiper and the "media draft complex" have invented a universe of meaningless concepts like draft value. It's the equivalent of bragging you saved 50 cents on a pound of bologna. To me the only thing that matters is does the player you drafted or signed as a UDFA help you win. I don't care if every draft pick is a bust if every UDFA signing makes you a Super Bowl contender. Only the result matters, not how you got there.

 

 

he certainly didnt create it, hes just shown it to the fans. where things run a bit amuck is fans thinking that hes presenting fact, and not simply opinion. sure the results are important but the way you achieve results is by being successful in the team building process.

[Section242]

My thing has been this. For more than a decade.

 

I think "draft value" is kinda stupid in the first round (other than RB of course - never ever take a RB in the first round. Ever. Seriously). People say "oh, you cant take a RT or TE or OG at 9," etc. I understand its a risk/reward thing. But if you cant find good players (meaning you cant properly estimate the reward), then hire better scouts.

 

If you look back at past 1st round drafts, maybe 10-12 of the 32 guys turn out to be worth anything. If you think you know who one of those guys is, take him. Whether you pick 1, or 9, or 25. For example, look at this "crock-of-shtt" draft. There arent really 5 guys worth a damn in the first round:

 

http://www.nfl.com/d...aft?season=2008

 

And if you tell me that Kiper-types said "oh, flacco isnt a good value at 11" or "Ryan Clady isnt good value at 11" I'd say you're stupid. Again. Only a handful of these guys will be worth a damn. No matter where you pick, if you think a guy will be a true NFL player, take him and never look back. Seriously, scroll through the first 3-4 rounds of that draft and really see how much garbage there is.

 

If you draft enuf guys who are worth a damn, regardless of position or Kiper-esque "value," and hire decent coaches, you will soon have a good team.

 

(I guess this is another way of saying to take BPA, almost regardless of position. And I kinda trust Whaley to do this. If he thinks HaHa is the best true NFL player still remaining at 9, i'll try my best to be cool with that)

 

Jake Long, Chris Long, Matt Ryan, Clady, Rodgers-Cromartie, Talib, Mayo, McKelvin, Albert, Flacco, Brown, Chris Johnson. All twelve are decent players. Guys like Mike Williams WR, Aaron Curry, Glenn Dorsey, Michael Huff, Robert Gallery were "safe" picks or in some cases listed as BPA by some draft "experts."

 

So draft good players and you're going to have a good team? I'd say draft a good QB and everything else will fall into place. Like the previously mentioned Matt Ryan turning Atlanta around after that team being a disaster.

[ny33]

My thing has been this. For more than a decade.

 

I think "draft value" is kinda stupid in the first round (other than RB of course - never ever take a RB in the first round. Ever. Seriously). People say "oh, you cant take a RT or TE or OG at 9," etc. I understand its a risk/reward thing. But if you cant find good players (meaning you cant properly estimate the reward), then hire better scouts.

 

If you look back at past 1st round drafts, maybe 10-12 of the 32 guys turn out to be worth anything. If you think you know who one of those guys is, take him. Whether you pick 1, or 9, or 25. For example, look at this "crock-of-shtt" draft. There arent really 5 guys worth a damn in the first round:

 

http://www.nfl.com/d...aft?season=2008

 

And if you tell me that Kiper-types said "oh, flacco isnt a good value at 11" or "Ryan Clady isnt good value at 11" I'd say you're stupid. Again. Only a handful of these guys will be worth a damn. No matter where you pick, if you think a guy will be a true NFL player, take him and never look back. Seriously, scroll through the first 3-4 rounds of that draft and really see how much garbage there is.

 

If you draft enuf guys who are worth a damn, regardless of position or Kiper-esque "value," and hire decent coaches, you will soon have a good team.

 

(I guess this is another way of saying to take BPA, almost regardless of position. And I kinda trust Whaley to do this. If he thinks HaHa is the best true NFL player still remaining at 9, i'll try my best to be cool with that)

 

Regarding the bolded text above: Do you follow the N.F.L.?

 

While there were quite a few busts in 2008's first round, there are certainly more than five players worth a first-round pick, and more than five players worth their draft slots.

 

Chris Long is one of the best defensive ends in the league.

 

Matt Ryan is a top-ten quarterback.

 

Jerod Mayo has been a great LB for the Patriots.

 

Flacco won a Super Bowl.

 

Ryan Clady is one of the best offensive tackles in the game.

 

Jake Long has been hit by injuries recently, but he is still a top OT and is certainly not a bust, though the Dolphins would certainly prefer to have drafted Ryan.

 

Chris Johnson had some great years and was worth his draft slot.

 

Aqib Talib has been a top-five CB some years despite his legal troubles.

 

Cherilus and Albert are solid, but not star, tackles who have proven to be worth mid-first-round picks.

 

Unless you expect every first-round pick to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer, there are certainly more than five "worthy" first-round picks, and there are certainly a few more players from that draft worth their draft slot.

[yungmack]

"Draft Value" and "BPA" are dependent on the needs of the team doing the drafting. Back when SF had both Montana and Young, would they have drafted another QB just because he was the BPA? No. And as to never taking a RB in the first round, what if you had the chance to grab the second coming of Jim Brown, Cookie Gilchrist, Earl Campbell or OJ Simpson? Sounds like you'd pass on them but I would run up to the podium to put in the card.

[OCinBuffalo]

You cannot take "value" out of the draft.

 

That is because pick #1 will always be more valuable than pick #2, pick #2 more so than pick #3, and so on. The value of the #9 pick is the same, every year. So is the value for every other pick. This is why: the Draft Value Chart is used, and used consistently. The myth is that it isn't used, or we've moved on, has been dispelled.

 

Thus, your premise is retarded. Draft value is reality. It is inherent to the draft. Therefore, it is neither dumb nor smart, and can never be. It simply: is.

 

Moving on, no, your other comments make little sense. If we are sitting at 9, and the players available to us, in our opinion, do not rate a #9 pick, or, the ones that do play a position we already have solid starter+depth at, then the ONLY logical thing to do is to attempt to trade down. Let somebody else overpay, in terms of the value of the 9th pick, for a lesser player. However, unlike the Raiders last year, we are not desperate, so, if we do not get the right value coming back from the trade down, Whaley will stay put at 9, and just pick somebody.

 

EDIT: And that is something every Bills fan has to accept. We have about an = chance of getting value at 9, as we do not getting it, and whether we do is completely out of the FO's control, if they sit tight. Things being out of their control? Is why I don't discount the rumor that we are trading up to #1.

 

Thus, the only way that what you want is going to happen? After draft value has been considered 3 times at least.

 

That's the key thing to remember. Last year, the Rams evaluted Tavon Austin, and decided that his value was >= to the value of their #1+#2 picks, etc. So far, it looks like the Rams overpaid for a lesser player, in terms of draft value, exactly. It looks like the Bills gained more value from that draft than the Rams, in getting EJ, Kiko, Goodwin, and Gragg, for Austin and a JAG saftey. That's how this works. The value of the picks never changes. That's the baseline. Then, you evaluate players againt that constant baseline.

 

Like it or not, this is how it works, it cannot be dumb or smart, and it will always be this way.

Edited April 23, 2014 by OCinBuffalo

[Bronc24]

I agree with the premise of BPA, but there are so many other factors involved, especially in a specialized sport like football.

 

To me, having just won my first championship as a coach after being so close many times, it comes down to up front. We can have all the bells and whistles we want, but if we aren't strong up front, we're not a championship team.

 

In the NFL, you need to win in the trenches. I have often stated it starts with the QB, and I will not undermine the importance of that, but even Brady and Manning struggle when not protected.

Edited April 23, 2014 by Bronc24

[Luxy312]

My thing has been this. For more than a decade.

 

I think "draft value" is kinda stupid in the first round (other than RB of course - never ever take a RB in the first round. Ever. Seriously). People say "oh, you cant take a RT or TE or OG at 9," etc. I understand its a risk/reward thing. But if you cant find good players (meaning you cant properly estimate the reward), then hire better scouts.

 

If you look back at past 1st round drafts, maybe 10-12 of the 32 guys turn out to be worth anything. If you think you know who one of those guys is, take him. Whether you pick 1, or 9, or 25. For example, look at this "crock-of-shtt" draft. There arent really 5 guys worth a damn in the first round:

 

http://www.nfl.com/d...aft?season=2008

 

And if you tell me that Kiper-types said "oh, flacco isnt a good value at 11" or "Ryan Clady isnt good value at 11" I'd say you're stupid. Again. Only a handful of these guys will be worth a damn. No matter where you pick, if you think a guy will be a true NFL player, take him and never look back. Seriously, scroll through the first 3-4 rounds of that draft and really see how much garbage there is.

 

If you draft enuf guys who are worth a damn, regardless of position or Kiper-esque "value," and hire decent coaches, you will soon have a good team.

 

(I guess this is another way of saying to take BPA, almost regardless of position. And I kinda trust Whaley to do this. If he thinks HaHa is the best true NFL player still remaining at 9, i'll try my best to be cool with that)

 

I honestly feel like this perspective has somehow robbed me of IQ. I'm just going to look at the last 5 years to evaluate. While every teams boards are different, I'm going to have to assume a ranking to make this point. As such, I'll take CBS Sportsline.

 

2013 - 16th pick is QB - E.J. Manuel. Board says they should have drafted FB - Kyle Juszczyk. That's great. Starting last season, we would have had Thad Lewis, Jeff Tuel and Kolb on the IR. For the record, Juszczyk wasn't even picked in the first round. Wonder why.

 

2012 - 10th pick is Stephen Gilmore. Board says they should have drafted OG - David DeCastro. He's been OK for the Steelers, but nothing really special. and was picked with the 24th pick in the draft. Riddled with injuries early in his career. On the flip side, that removes the Bills best CB from the team going into last year.

 

2011 - 3rd pick is DT - Marcel Dareus. Board says the same. Enough said.

 

2010 - 9th pick is RB - CJ Spiller. Board says Joe Haden, but he was already taken 2 picks earlier. We would have instead ended up with DE - Derrick Morgan. Essentially, we would be trading away a guy who's shown us something for a below average DE. Wonderfully done.

 

2009 - 11th pick is DE - Aaron Maybin. Draft board says WR - Jeremy Maclin. This is the only one that is definitive in terms of an improvement. Maybin was a head scratcher to say the least.

 

I'll bet you money that if you went back another 15 years that this team would look like a DISASTER if you just took BPA for every first round pick, regardless of position. By definition, position MUST come into play when assigning value. The single exception to that rule IMO is if your team is already complete top to bottom and you have no real draft needs. Therein lies the problem. There is NO team in the modern NFL that doesn't have needs. Even winning the Superbowl, Seattle will be trying to pick players at positions that they perceive as NEED to them. Johnny football could fall all the way to their pick and they're NOT picking him. Your premise = failure.