CJ Spiller discussed FA today

[Luxy312]

http://www.drafttek....amneeds2014.asp

Given different Team Needs at RB, and the draft order they're in, I don't see Spiller's value. It'd be better to keep him.

Houston P5

St.Louis P6

Jackson P9

Cleveland P6

Oakland P6

Atlanta P5

T-Bay P6

Minneso P6

Buffalo P3

 

This I agree with for a couple of reasons. First, he has a lot of upside. 2 years ago when healthy, he averaged 6 YPC. He was an explosive playmaker. Trading him before last year would have been for much bigger value than many are talking about on this board. Second, what do they have to lose by keeping him? Another sub-par year and they can re-sign him to not a good deal. Return to form and they have the option of trading him for a LOT more. There's a lot of myopic Madden-esque thinkers out there for sure.

 

I don't think anyone is saying "Spiller sucks", but it's pointless to compare him to arguably the greatest running back in NFL history. Only a person who never saw Sanders play would even try to make such a comparison.

 

In the legendary 2012 season, Spiller had games of 88, 70, 70, 39, 37, and 77 yards--and the corresponding "YPC" in those games were 7.33, 5.83, 7.78, 6.5, 5.29, 5.5.

 

In his first 4 seasons, Sanders had 1470, 1304, 1548 and 1352 yards. In 10 years, he ran for at least 1300 per season 9 times--he had one year with only 1100 yards but only played 11 games.

 

He averaged more than 300 carries per year in his career. He carried the ball 343 times in his 10th and last year.

 

In his 9th year, he had 2053 yards for an average of 6.1 YPC (128 YPG). He kept up that pace over 335 carries (which is more than Spiller carried in 2011 and 2012 combined.

 

You will never see Spiller carry the ball 300 times (in one season). You won't see Spiller dodging player after player in the backfield and then running over guys downfield. You will never see a team depend on CJ Spiller for their offense. Sanders did all of these things, and because Spiller can't or doesn't does not mean he "sucks".

 

But you just can't compare two football players who are absolutely nothing alike and form a convincing argument about either of them.

 

You obviously didn't watch him play that much based on that comment. Barry was never a power running back. It's the reason he WAS caught in the backfield for a loss more than any player in the history of the NFL. He NEVER got downfield because he ran people over, but because you couldn't put a measurable hit on the guy once he got into space. In terms of how many carries Sanders got, please find me a running back TODAY that is getting 300 carries a game year in and year out. A.P. is the closest and he still falls well short. You won't, because they don't exist. Different era in football. The fact is that Sanders played for a garbage team and was pretty much the only weapon that team had, unless you wanted to mention Herman Moore, Rodney Pete or Scott Mitchell. Nice try, but doesn't hold water.

Edited April 23, 2014 by Luxy312

[FLFan]

 

 

This I agree with for a couple of reasons. First, he has a lot of upside. 2 years ago when healthy, he averaged 6 YPC. He was an explosive playmaker. Trading him before last year would have been for much bigger value than many are talking about on this board. Second, what do they have to lose by keeping him? Another sub-par year and they can re-sign him to not a good deal. Return to form and they have the option of trading him for a LOT more. There's a lot of myopic Madden-esque thinkers out there for sure.

 

 

 

You obviously didn't watch him play that much based on that comment. Barry was never a power running back. It's the reason he WAS caught in the backfield for a loss more than any player in the history of the NFL. He NEVER got downfield because he ran people over, but because you couldn't put a measurable hit on the guy once he got into space. In terms of how many carries Sanders got, please find me a running back TODAY that is getting 300 carries a game year in and year out. A.P. is the closest and he still falls well short. You won't, because they don't exist. Different era in football. The fact is that Sanders played for a garbage team and was pretty much the only weapon that team had, unless you wanted to mention Herman Moore, Rodney Pete or Scott Mitchell. Nice try, but doesn't hold water.

The most basic point is that only Barry Sanders was Barry Sanders. He was a unique talent. To some folk's logic here because Spiller does not conform to their view of a hall of fame quality RB he is useless and dead wait. The Bill's opponents would love it if Spiller were not on this team. He is electric and a threat to score on every play, yet since he does not live up to their ideals, many fans devalue him. I choose to enjoy him while I can in a Bills uniform. Once he hits free agency he will be gone.

[3rdand12]

That was my biggest issue with Hackett. You need to get Spiller 15-20 touches and catches are better because it puts him in space and limits the hits he takes. I pray Hackett is studying film of 2012 Spiller.

I am not sitting next to Nate , but I would bet my chickens , Hackett is Very aware of what Spiller did under Chan and what did not happen under Hackett.

[Luxy312]

The most basic point is that only Barry Sanders was Barry Sanders. He was a unique talent. To some folk's logic here because Spiller does not conform to their view of a hall of fame quality RB he is useless and dead wait. The Bill's opponents would love it if Spiller were not on this team. He is electric and a threat to score on every play, yet since he does not live up to their ideals, many fans devalue him. I choose to enjoy him while I can in a Bills uniform. Once he hits free agency he will be gone.

 

Every player is unique, but it is useful to compare styles or running. The verdict is out on whether "he will be gone" none the less. Depends on what he does in his next 2 seasons (which he's under contract for). 6 years of hit and miss performance and injuries will not get him a lot of looks.

[Mr. WEO]

This I agree with for a couple of reasons. First, he has a lot of upside. 2 years ago when healthy, he averaged 6 YPC. He was an explosive playmaker. Trading him before last year would have been for much bigger value than many are talking about on this board. Second, what do they have to lose by keeping him? Another sub-par year and they can re-sign him to not a good deal. Return to form and they have the option of trading him for a LOT more. There's a lot of myopic Madden-esque thinkers out there for sure.

 

 

 

You obviously didn't watch him play that much based on that comment. Barry was never a power running back. It's the reason he WAS caught in the backfield for a loss more than any player in the history of the NFL. He NEVER got downfield because he ran people over, but because you couldn't put a measurable hit on the guy once he got into space. In terms of how many carries Sanders got, please find me a running back TODAY that is getting 300 carries a game year in and year out. A.P. is the closest and he still falls well short. You won't, because they don't exist. Different era in football. The fact is that Sanders played for a garbage team and was pretty much the only weapon that team had, unless you wanted to mention Herman Moore, Rodney Pete or Scott Mitchell. Nice try, but doesn't hold water.

 

Sanders didn't run over guys like Jim Brown did. He jumped over them, stepped over them as they lunged at him--literally ran over or around. He was caught in the backfield because his line was so bad, not because he wasn't strong enough to run forward. Also, when the same guy is getting the ball more than 30 times a game year after year, and there no other credible offensive threats on the team, it's not hard for teams to defend this type of offense.

 

No, other than maybe AP, backs don't have to run 300 times a game, which is why comparing Spiller's 6 yards a carry in a single season on only 200 carries (and look at that distribution in 2012) to Sanders's is pointless. I'm confident in concluding that even if it was somehow physically possible for Spiller to carry the ball 345 times in a season, his YPC would be no where near 6.

 

Because of all of the above, bringing up Sanders as the "negative yardage leader of all time" as a negative qualifyer in order to shine Spiller in a better light fails soundly. Really, who on earth is sitting around saying, of Sanders, "yeah, but he lead the league in negative yardage"? No one, other than some at this place.

[thewildrabbit]

I am telling you right now, He is trade bait come May 8th. just wait and see. I can see him packaged with another pick to move up or for say a 2nd or 3rd rounder to the right team (Raiders?)

If that were the case then why wouldn't they make a deal with the Eagles who clearly wanted him. The Bills refused to even converse on the subject.

 

I think Spiller could still be a dominate primary back if utilized properly...a bulldozer he ain't!

 

 

CJ just might be the player, along with two #1s and a 2nd, to make the deal with Houston. Eerily similar to the Bennett deal in '87.

 

GO BILLS!!!

For who? If it isn't for an Andrew Luck type QB then its 3 wasted first round picks....and a 2nd. Since there is no Andy Luck in this draft, Whaley couldn't be this lame.

[Luxy312]

Sanders didn't run over guys like Jim Brown did. He jumped over them, stepped over them as they lunged at him--literally ran over or around. He was caught in the backfield because his line was so bad, not because he wasn't strong enough to run forward. Also, when the same guy is getting the ball more than 30 times a game year after year, and there no other credible offensive threats on the team, it's not hard for teams to defend this type of offense.

 

No, other than maybe AP, backs don't have to run 300 times a game, which is why comparing Spiller's 6 yards a carry in a single season on only 200 carries (and look at that distribution in 2012) to Sanders's is pointless. I'm confident in concluding that even if it was somehow physically possible for Spiller to carry the ball 345 times in a season, his YPC would be no where near 6.

 

Because of all of the above, bringing up Sanders as the "negative yardage leader of all time" as a negative qualifyer in order to shine Spiller in a better light fails soundly. Really, who on earth is sitting around saying, of Sanders, "yeah, but he lead the league in negative yardage"? No one, other than some at this place.

 

Confident in speculating you mean. There is no conclusion you can draw from your analogy as there is no data. Your "conclusion" wouldn't pass the smell test in small court. I have at least constructed a sound argument based on ample data points.

[FLFan]

 

 

Every player is unique, but it is useful to compare styles or running. The verdict is out on whether "he will be gone" none the less. Depends on what he does in his next 2 seasons (which he's under contract for). 6 years of hit and miss performance and injuries will not get him a lot of looks.

Yes, every player is unique, but Barry Sanders is an all time great and the comparisons being made are meaningless. Spiller has an opt out clause after 2014 which he will most certainly take if he has a good year and the Bills do not offer an extension of what he perceives reasonable value, which seems unlikely. As for the injury bit, Spiller has missed all of two games in 4 years. Pretty impressive for a running back actually. He played through a high ankle sprain last year and still led the team in rushing and averaged 4.6 yards per carry. "Getting looks" will not be an issue unless he blows out a knee this year. Your arguments actually go to my point - Bills fans tend to devalue their own.

 

[Luxy312]

Yes, every player is unique, but Barry Sanders is an all time great and the comparisons being made are meaningless. Spiller has an opt out clause after 2014 which he will most certainly take if he has a good year and the Bills do not offer an extension of what he perceives reasonable value, which seems unlikely. As for the injury bit, Spiller has missed all of two games in 4 years. Pretty impressive for a running back actually. He played through a high ankle sprain last year and still led the team in rushing and averaged 4.6 yards per carry. "Getting looks" will not be an issue unless he blows out a knee this year. Your arguments actually go to my point - Bills fans tend to devalue their own.

 

You can only compare the data you have. Sure Barry is great. No question one of the best ever. He wasn't a bread and butter runner though. 3-6 yards a carry wasn't his way. He was -3, -2, +20. People on this board want to somehow say "nevermind" to Spiller's big runs just the same. Ludicrous and asinine. THAT is the comparison. Not 300 carries a year. They have the same style. In traffic, they suck. BOTH suck in traffic. Barry is more proven at sucking in traffic than Spiller, no question as he is more proven long term on the productive side. Spiller can opt out, but he can't preclude the Bills from tagging him. The simple act of "opting out" doesn't automatically make him a free agent. Oh, and reiterating a point. Neither of these runners "ran over" anyone. Watch football people!

[Section242]

If that were the case then why wouldn't they make a deal with the Eagles who clearly wanted him. The Bills refused to even converse on the subject.

 

I think Spiller could still be a dominate primary back if utilized properly...a bulldozer he ain't!

 

 

For who? If it isn't for an Andrew Luck type QB then its 3 wasted first round picks....and a 2nd. Since there is no Andy Luck in this draft, Whaley couldn't be this lame.

 

Exactly. His best season most would agree he was underused. The idea of a primary back as was even 10 years ago is gone. Rather than compare him to maybe the greatest RB ever and how he was used; Hackett should study how Westbrook was used in Philly. The Bills have one game breaker on the team and that's Spiller. Where he was drafted is held against him as if it was his fault the Bills took him with Jackson and Lynch. Running backs aren't getting huge 2nd contracts.

 

If Spiller wants to hit free agency he's going to have to have an enormous year. Other than that it'd be in the best interest of him and probably the team to get something done.

[K-9]

If that were the case then why wouldn't they make a deal with the Eagles who clearly wanted him. The Bills refused to even converse on the subject.

 

I think Spiller could still be a dominate primary back if utilized properly...a bulldozer he ain't!

 

 

For who? If it isn't for an Andrew Luck type QB then its 3 wasted first round picks....and a 2nd. Since there is no Andy Luck in this draft, Whaley couldn't be this lame.

 

Clowney.

 

Was Polian "that lame" for the Bennett trade? The trade that completely shifted the balance of power first in the AFCE and then in the AFC? It's funny because I distinctly remember people saying Polian had lost his mind as well, that the Bills had mortgaged their future at the time. Whaley should be as crazy.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[smapdi]

It boggles my mind you guys want to get rid of our most explosive weapon on offense. He is in the prime of his career at 26-27 years old & has proven he can be a game changing type player. The Bills also are one of the most run oriented teams in the league.. do you guys like Fred Jackson can carry this offense at his age?

 

 

I don't even see the ppint in trading him. He's worth a 1st to this team but would probably only fetch a 2nd after his injury plagued season. You're going to end up having to spend that pick on a RB to replace him. A completely unproven player who hasn't done anything in the NFL.

 

 

Spiller isn't the problem on this offense. The terrible run blocking by the line & Hacketts head scratching play calling were the major issues. Get someone like Matthews to play RT & Niklas to block from the TV spot and we have a very scary rushing attack

[1B4IDie]

Maybe a team like Denver that would mortgage its future for a SB win before Manning is gone. Each season is do or die with them. Spiller would be an outstanding addition to their offense. For other teams not in that scenario, I don't think they would give up a 1st. or 2nd, this year.

Good point. Spiller played multiple games as a WR in 2011.

He is very versatile and in Denver/Seattle/New England/New Orleans he can add a dynamic threat to a team that is already a contender. His type of play can bolt on to any offense.

 

If he hires Eugene "go to free agency" Parker no team will trade for him. If he hires an agent that will sign a long term with the new team there is a chance for a trade.

 

It depends on how teams value Spiller but to your point a team that it is not a contender on 2014 would make little sense to trade for Spiller.

 

Maybe #9 and Spiller to Atlanta at #6 to move up if Watkins/Robinson/Mathews/Evans/Mack/Clowney is still on the board.

 

Atlanta has a QB and WRs and knew how to use Jaquiz Rodgers. Plus they think they will be a quick turn around team.

They could still get Mosley Barr or a DB at #9.

[1B4IDie]

It boggles my mind you guys want to get rid of our most explosive weapon on offense. He is in the prime of his career at 26-27 years old & has proven he can be a game changing type player. The Bills also are one of the most run oriented teams in the league.. do you guys like Fred Jackson can carry this offense at his age?

 

 

I don't even see the ppint in trading him. He's worth a 1st to this team but would probably only fetch a 2nd after his injury plagued season. You're going to end up having to spend that pick on a RB to replace him. A completely unproven player who hasn't done anything in the NFL.

 

 

Spiller isn't the problem on this offense. The terrible run blocking by the line & Hacketts head scratching play calling were the major issues. Get someone like Matthews to play RT & Niklas to block from the TV spot and we have a very scary rushing attack

No one wants to get rid if Spiller but the tea leaves are pointing to a Spiller exit after the 2014 season.

So do you try to get something for him before he walks is the point?

[Mr. WEO]

Confident in speculating you mean. There is no conclusion you can draw from your analogy as there is no data. Your "conclusion" wouldn't pass the smell test in small court. I have at least constructed a sound argument based on ample data points.

 

"Small court"?

 

Anyway, no data? I psoted my data. The data you posted consisted of "most negative yards in history" and "5.1 yards per carry".

 

You can only compare the data you have. Sure Barry is great. No question one of the best ever. He wasn't a bread and butter runner though. 3-6 yards a carry wasn't his way. He was -3, -2, +20. People on this board want to somehow say "nevermind" to Spiller's big runs just the same. Ludicrous and asinine. THAT is the comparison. Not 300 carries a year. They have the same style. In traffic, they suck. BOTH suck in traffic. Barry is more proven at sucking in traffic than Spiller, no question as he is more proven long term on the productive side. Spiller can opt out, but he can't preclude the Bills from tagging him. The simple act of "opting out" doesn't automatically make him a free agent. Oh, and reiterating a point. Neither of these runners "ran over" anyone. Watch football people!

 

You just lost all credibility.

[C.Biscuit97]

We have some posters here who just love to argue for the sake of arguing. At no point did I say Spiller was as good as Barry Sanders. Some posters reading comprehension sucks.

[Sisyphean Bills]

If they package CJ for anything less than a first rounder, that would be a disaster. Almost as big of a disaster as it was when they drafted a RB at 9 in the first place.

 

Is this based on Marshawn Lynch only being worth a 4th rounder?

 

Yes, every player is unique, but Barry Sanders is an all time great and the comparisons being made are meaningless. Spiller has an opt out clause after 2014 which he will most certainly take if he has a good year and the Bills do not offer an extension of what he perceives reasonable value, which seems unlikely. As for the injury bit, Spiller has missed all of two games in 4 years. Pretty impressive for a running back actually. He played through a high ankle sprain last year and still led the team in rushing and averaged 4.6 yards per carry. "Getting looks" will not be an issue unless he blows out a knee this year. Your arguments actually go to my point - Bills fans tend to devalue their own.

May be a phenomena not exclusively held by the fans.

[Bill from NYC]

May be a phenomena not exclusively held by the fans.

 

How many players in recent years have fetched a first round pick via a trade?

[Sisyphean Bills]

How many players in recent years have fetched a first round pick via a trade?

I was referring to "playing hardball" with your best self-developed players there.

 

As far as getting a 1st rounder for Spiller, that's a pipe dream in my opinion.