If We Pass on Ebron .... We Will Regret it

[Rocky Landing]

My position is that if the Bills are truly sold on EJ as their starter this year, and are putting all their eggs in that one, questionable basket, they should be drafting the best available offensive player (other than a QB, of course) in at least the first three rounds. But, to be honest, if one of the top QBs falls to the ninth pick, Bortles, Bridgewater, Manziel, and we take him, I'll breath a sigh of relief.

[Not at the table Karlos]

 

There is absolutely nothing special about Eric Ebron.

 

Which one of these TEs would you like:

(The Stats are from their last college season.)

 

Height Weight 40 Time Reps Vert Jump Arm Length Hand Size Rec Yards TD Drop %

6/5 265 4.74 28 33 34 9 98 1240 7 7.69

6/4 250 4.6 24 32 33.25 10 55 895 3 11.43

6/6 265 4.76 25 31.5 33 10.25 26 253 6 DNQ

6/7 270 4.86 27 32 34.12 10 28 422 5 8.57

6/6 262 4.75 20 DNQ 33.75 9.75 36 450 8 5.41

I would take the top two you listed. The one that ran a 4.6 first

[1B4IDie]

I would take the top two you listed. The one that ran a 4.6 first

If at least 1 of the 5 were guaranteed to be available at #41 would you take any at #9 overall?

[smapdi]

I would love a player like Ebron on this team but not at the cost of a top 10 pick. I just don't see the value of spending the 9th overall pick on a guy that really didnt dominate in college & there are TE's who will be available @ 41 whom are more complete players (Niklas) or just as athletic, slot guys (ASJ).

 

I don't see how you can take him over someone like Jake Matthews whom dominated in the SEC, has a ton of starts, & most importantly, plays the weakest position on the entire team (RT).

 

Even if Ebron has a grreat rookie season (60 receptions), his impact is still minimal on the overall offense. A great RT will impact every single offensive snap & help our 2 key players realize their talent (Manuel & Spiller).

 

Then grab Niklas or ASJ in the 2nd & get the same production Ebron would provide this offense.

[SBUffalo]

 

 

But he actually provides blocking ability as a in line tight end......

 

So does ASJ. ASJ is just below Niklas as far as blocking goes but is a better pass catcher.

Edited April 11, 2014 by SBUffalo

[Not at the table Karlos]

 

If at least 1 of the 5 were guaranteed to be available at #41 would you take any at #9 overall?

 

Yes. The money isnt what it used to be when drafting in the top ten. As long as I feel that player is going to improve my team and is a playmaker/mismatch I take him. I may have a different philosophy offensively than Hackett. I feel a mismatch receiving threat from the TE position is very important, especially for a young QB. I am not completely sold on ebron and I do not want a tackle at 9 but the way things are looking thats where we are headed. I would prefer ebron at 9 and a tackle in rd 2 or 3.

Edited April 11, 2014 by kr632

[maryland-bills-fan]

no

[BuffaloFan68]

We won't regret not taking Ebron. Unless you already have a complete play-off team with depth, you just don't take TEs with a top 10 pick (unless you're the Raiders).

[1B4IDie]

 

Yes. The money isnt what it used to be when drafting in the top ten. As long as I feel that player is going to improve my team and is a playmaker/mismatch I take him. I may have a different philosophy offensively than Hackett. I feel a mismatch receiving threat from the TE position is very important, especially for a young QB. I am not completely sold on ebron and I do not want a tackle at 9 but the way things are looking thats where we are headed. I would prefer ebron at 9 and a tackle in rd 2 or 3.

 

 

You're allowed to have that opinion. I don't agree that a 6-4 TE gives you a huge advantage or is anyway special in the NFL in 2014. Jimmy Graham can eat his breakfast off the top of Eric Ebron's head. They are not similar.

I'd take any of the similarly talented TEs at #41. I'd have TE written in ShArpie right now on the draft board. Unless there is a precipitous fall like Cordy Glenn, the Jake Mathews is an order of magnitude more talented then the TEs IMO and well worth the #9 overall pick if he falls.

[Not at the table Karlos]

 

 

 

You're allowed to have that opinion. I don't agree that a 6-4 TE gives you a huge advantage or is anyway special in the NFL in 2014. Jimmy Graham can eat his breakfast off the top of Eric Ebron's head. They are not similar.

I'd take any of the similarly talented TEs at #41. I'd have TE written in ShArpie right now on the draft board. Unless there is a precipitous fall like Cordy Glenn, the Jake Mathews is an order of magnitude more talented then the TEs IMO and well worth the #9 overall pick if he falls.

this draft is odd to me. Normally I have a few players that I would be happy if the bills drafted them. This year I dont have that feeling. Ebron to me goes down too easily. I dont want a RT in the top ten. I have no clue what our D will look like so dont know what we need there. WR looks good where we are now.

[Manther]

We won't regret it. Pettigrew 2.0.

Pettigrew can block at least.

[ALF]

Franchise tag for OL is $11.65 m , for a TE $7 m, which position is more critical to help your QB ?

[BigBuff423]

Not only is he considered to be clearly the best TE in this draft..

 

He is considered as one of the best we athletes in this draft.

 

He is a match up nightmare the perfect advantage a 2nd year QB needs....

 

Ebron even give the Bills the flexibility to play two TE sets....

 

I continue to watch videos on him, and he has weaknesses but they can be coached up but his physical gifts and natural abilities CAN NOT...

 

Example his ability to locate the ball in traffic. Elevating at the peak of the catch (he goes an gets it) Body Control ect...

 

If We Pass on him we'll regret it

 

And the thing is, if we're talking Ebron in the 3rd round, all that is fine and good, but at 9th overall or even in the 1st round at all, just doesn't make sense, value-wise, in my mind...the BILLS are NOT the Saints, in terms of stadium, division, or team composition so taking a guy that high, you want to be able to put on the Roster from Day 1 and have him start and make a difference Day 1...TEs have a learning curve, virtually ALLLL of them do and even the ones who had a good first year, which are EXTREMELY rare, don't make an impact as much....if BILLS were to Draft Ebron even in the 2nd round, while I wouldn't be "happy" about it, unless they trade down in the 1st and get another 2nd, I would at least slowly warm to the idea...but the BILLS run a very different offense, in a very different division, in often time inclement weather...and if it were me Drafting a guy at 9th overall or in the 1st round at all, I don't want a guy who has to be "coached up" to do the fundamentals, i.e. catching the ball, well...I want a guy who I know has the ability to play as expected right from opening day....JMO

[1B4IDie]

this draft is odd to me. Normally I have a few players that I would be happy if the bills drafted them. This year I dont have that feeling. Ebron to me goes down too easily. I dont want a RT in the top ten. I have no clue what our D will look like so dont know what we need there. WR looks good where we are now.

Completely Agree If Watkins, Evans, Clowney, Mack are gone (Likely) then there isn't really anyone I'm too amped about taking. What tipped me in favor of the RT at #9 for me is the realization that there is no depth behind Cordy Glenn. If he goes down LT is a huge liability. So drafting a RT #9 overall that can swing to LT in a pinch is actually a huge priority.

 

Especially when there is an equally talented TE available at #41.

[C.Biscuit97]

Franchise tag for OL is $11.65 m , for a TE $7 m, which position is more critical to help your QB ?

 

I think Jimmy Graham is more important than whoever the Saints LT is. Teams are letting high price o linemen walk more and more. The question is whether Ebron can be that type of matchup nightmare like the elite guys. I really like Ebron but admit the lack of Tds is concerning. At the same time, Calvin Johnson posted seasons of 4, 5, and 5 tds because he is getting double and triple teamed in the end zone. I'm sure teams did that to Ebron.

 

This is going to be a tough decision. I think besides QB, the position most neglected by the Bills has been TE. TEs are a QB's best friend and EJ looked good throwing to Chandler. But there is some quality depth at TE. But if, and it's a big if, you think Ebron has Vernon Davis or Graham ability, I don't know how you pass on that.

[smapdi]

Completely Agree If Watkins, Evans, Clowney, Mack are gone (Likely) then there isn't really anyone I'm too amped about taking. What tipped me in favor of the RT at #9 for me is the realization that there is no depth behind Cordy Glenn. If he goes down LT is a huge liability. So drafting a RT #9 overall that can swing to LT in a pinch is actually a huge priority.

 

Especially when there is an equally talented TE available at #41.

 

My thinking exactly. I would definitely take Clowney, Mack, or Watkins but I highly doubt any of them are there.

 

A OT just provides so much more impact then Ebron would. What happens if Glenn gets injured?? If we take Matthews or Lewan, no problem. They can slide right over & not miss a beat. That's why I like Matthews so much: he can play any position on the line & has a ton of experience at RT with 46 starts in the SEC in 2 different styles of offense. You can pretty much throw the season away if Glenn goes down with the current state of our OT's. I really liked what Hairston did a couple years back but who knows if he even can dress?

 

Couple that with the fact that we can get a TE in the 2nd that is almost identical too what Ebron would bring to this offense is ASJ or grab a more traditional, in-line TE in Niklas whom is also a dominating blocker. 75% of Niklas' snaps came from the LOS. He also is a better redzone threat then Ebron IMO. 6'6" / 270lb with a 32 inch vertical is close to unstoppable in the redzone. Hell, Ebron only had 3 TD's last season. Top 10 TE's should have more then 3 TD's coming out.

 

Now figure even if Ebron has a great rookie year, he catches 60 balls or so. Pretty good year but that isn't going to turn the tide of this offense. A OT will step into RT and impact every single play. Pears was the worst rated run blocking RT last season & that's a big problem on a team that runs as much as we do. We also gave up 48 sacks. That is atrocious. Games are won and lost in the trenches and I'm pretty sure Marrone realizes that being an o-line guy. Matthews or Lewan both would've been in contention for the 1st overall pick last year & surely went in the top 3.

[C.Biscuit97]

My thinking exactly. I would definitely take Clowney, Mack, or Watkins but I highly doubt any of them are there.

 

A OT just provides so much more impact then Ebron would. What happens if Glenn gets injured?? If we take Matthews or Lewan, no problem. They can slide right over & not miss a beat. That's why I like Matthews so much: he can play any position on the line & has a ton of experience at RT with 46 starts in the SEC in 2 different styles of offense. You can pretty much throw the season away if Glenn goes down with the current state of our OT's. I really liked what Hairston did a couple years back but who knows if he even can dress?

 

Couple that with the fact that we can get a TE in the 2nd that is almost identical too what Ebron would bring to this offense is ASJ or grab a more traditional, in-line TE in Niklas whom is also a dominating blocker. 75% of Niklas' snaps came from the LOS. He also is a better redzone threat then Ebron IMO. 6'6" / 270lb with a 32 inch vertical is close to unstoppable in the redzone. Hell, Ebron only had 3 TD's last season. Top 10 TE's should have more then 3 TD's coming out.

 

Now figure even if Ebron has a great rookie year, he catches 60 balls or so. Pretty good year but that isn't going to turn the tide of this offense. A OT will step into RT and impact every single play. Pears was the worst rated run blocking RT last season & that's a big problem on a team that runs as much as we do. We also gave up 48 sacks. That is atrocious. Games are won and lost in the trenches and I'm pretty sure Marrone realizes that being an o-line guy. Matthews or Lewan both would've been in contention for the 1st overall pick last year & surely went in the top 3.

 

You make some valid points. I just don't know many good teams that take RTs 9 overall. It would be such a boner killer come draft time. and there have been a good deal of mega busts of 1st round OTs.

[BigBuff423]

I think Jimmy Graham is more important than whoever the Saints LT is. Teams are letting high price o linemen walk more and more. The question is whether Ebron can be that type of matchup nightmare like the elite guys. I really like Ebron but admit the lack of Tds is concerning. At the same time, Calvin Johnson posted seasons of 4, 5, and 5 tds because he is getting double and triple teamed in the end zone. I'm sure teams did that to Ebron.

 

This is going to be a tough decision. I think besides QB, the position most neglected by the Bills has been TE. TEs are a QB's best friend and EJ looked good throwing to Chandler. But there is some quality depth at TE. But if, and it's a big if, you think Ebron has Vernon Davis or Graham ability, I don't know how you pass on that.

 

But Graham was a 3rd round pick and took some time to become "Graham" and Vernon Davis was almost left for dead until Harbaugh came along...so, while I understand everyone wants that TE that comes out and produces Graham like numbers, I think the BILLS *best* comparison to getting a good / great TE that can be replicated in AFCE is Gronk, who was a 2nd round TE and is NOT the Graham type TE. Gronk is big, nasty, has great hands, can block well, and fast *enough* but not elite type speed. The hard part will be if Ebron goes to a team like Falcons or Texans that play indoors or generally fair weather and fans see Ebron with good stats and say, "See!! That's what we wanted!"...but not taking into consideration the Offensive scheme, the Division, or the weather variables...Chandler does well in Buffalo because he's the "type" of TE the BILLS want....Niklas is more the Gronk type than Ebron....and I think if versatility is the buzz word for the BILLS, than a blocking AND pass-catching TE is what you're after...if you wanted to go ASJ, in the 2nd, ok....don't love it, don't hate it...but taking a TE at 9th overall or at all in the 1st unless you're taking late 20s or 30s, I just don't think the value is there....

[C.Biscuit97]

But Graham was a 3rd round pick and took some time to become "Graham" and Vernon Davis was almost left for dead until Harbaugh came along...so, while I understand everyone wants that TE that comes out and produces Graham like numbers, I think the BILLS *best* comparison to getting a good / great TE that can be replicated in AFCE is Gronk, who was a 2nd round TE and is NOT the Graham type TE. Gronk is big, nasty, has great hands, can block well, and fast *enough* but not elite type speed. The hard part will be if Ebron goes to a team like Falcons or Texans that play indoors or generally fair weather and fans see Ebron with good stats and say, "See!! That's what we wanted!"...but not taking into consideration the Offensive scheme, the Division, or the weather variables...Chandler does well in Buffalo because he's the "type" of TE the BILLS want....Niklas is more the Gronk type than Ebron....and I think if versatility is the buzz word for the BILLS, than a blocking AND pass-catching TE is what you're after...if you wanted to go ASJ, in the 2nd, ok....don't love it, don't hate it...but taking a TE at 9th overall or at all in the 1st unless you're taking late 20s or 30s, I just don't think the value is there....

 

I agree in general but just want to point out a few things. 1) Graham played one year of college football and went in the 3rd round. If he played another year, he goes in the 1st. 2) Gronk didn't play at all his last year in college with a back inury or else he's a 1st rounder. 3) Don't disagree with you point about later value with TEs. But if if the best chance scenario is Ebron (V.Davis) or Niklaus/ ASJ (Pettigrew), I'm going with Ebron. Obviously, no one has any idea though.

[BigBuff423]

I agree in general but just want to point out a few things. 1) Graham played one year of college football and went in the 3rd round. If he played another year, he goes in the 1st. 2) Gronk didn't play at all his last year in college with a back inury or else he's a 1st rounder. 3) Don't disagree with you point about later value with TEs. But if if the best chance scenario is Ebron (V.Davis) or Niklaus/ ASJ (Pettigrew), I'm going with Ebron. Obviously, no one has any idea though.

 

Fair enough, and that's good with me. But Witten, Gates, Julius Thomas, Jordan Cameron....can't all be wrong, right? Davis took years and a new HC to become what he is today and the others I just mentioned were 3rd or 4th rounders....if you would like, take a look at recent 1st round TEs and compare to what they put out versus those Drafted later.. Eifert and Pettigrew come to mind