What the Bills offseason tells us about draft plans

[Buffalo13]

I agree and have been saying this for a long time. All signs point to OT. However, they will always take the "best available" but I think best available will be an O-Lineman.

 

However, Mike Williams was insurance at WR. That won't stop them from drafting one, it's just in case they can't get the one they want. They won't have both Stevie and Williams next year, too big of a cap hit to keep both. So they still need a WR. But by not signing a T in free agency while addressing all other areas points to them feeling good about picking up one in the draft

 

People keep saying this but if they both catch 1000 yards worth of passes this year and a bunch of TDs like they are supposed to do then they darn well can keep both. Teams pay 2 WRs now because you have to. Think of it as how they used to pay a WR and a RB top dollar. Now replace the RB with your other WR. The Falcons will pay Jones and White. The Packers are about to pay Nelson and Cobb. You need MULTIPLE good receivers in the NFL today and therefore you have to eventually pay them. So long as they don't have to pay a QB they will have plenty of cap space to pay for 2 WRs.

 

That said, I don't know if I think they will both play well. What I said above is predicated on Johnson returning to form. If he doesn't, then he's out. But it will be b/c he isn't worth 8 million. Not because they wouldn't pay 8 million to a player that's worth it.

[BigBuff423]

During every offseason, we as fans love to speculate on what the front office is thinking going into the draft. Are they fixated on a player or position? Are there particular positions of "need" that would dictate a draft pick, like Gilmore and Dareus did? Alternatively, will they simply pick the best available player on their board regardless of need, ala Spiller? I offer up the following observations based on what the team has done in the offseason thus far:

 

Brandon Spikes - Signed a 1-year deal worth approximately $3.25 million plus performance based incentives. Presumably, he will be the guy in the middle on running downs, such that Kiko can move to his natural position at weak side linebacker. From a draft perspective, I don't have any ILB's ranked even in the top-20 draft prospects, so this would make sense.

 

Keith Rivers - Signed a 2-year deal worth approximately $4 million. With the signing bonus, $2.4 million of that will be paid this year. Schwartz is clearly setting up to run a 4-3 defense this season and Rivers would make sense on the outside opposite Kiko. From the draft, I'm sure the Bills would love to get Khalil Mack, but expecting that he'll fall to them at #9 is a pipe dream. If they have enough love for Anthony Barr, then Rivers could simply represent insurance such that if both are gone, they're still left with a starter.

 

Scott Chandler - Re-signed with the bills to a 2-year deal worth $4.75 million, of which about $2.75 million will be paid this season. Over the last 3 years, Chandler has been the Bills second leading receiver, behind only Stevie Johnson. Without over reading this, I can't see them picking Ebron in the 1st while still having Chandler, Smith, Moaki, Gragg, and also recently signed Caussin at TE. Chandler is the key though given that the rest are very much TBD's.

 

Mike Williams - The Bills traded a pick for him and will pay him just $2.2 million this year and $6.2 million next year. Next years compensation though will only be paid if he's retained. He's a local product and playing here with a chip on his shoulder. I pencil him in as the #2 at this point with Woods, Goodwin, Easley, Graham, and a score of others behind that. The availability of Sammy Watkins in the first is highly unlikely, and this would seem to mean to me that they're not #9 high on Mike Evans.

 

Corey Graham - His deal was 4-years and $16 million with $8.1 million guaranteed. That's a pretty big nut to say the least. Marrone has already said that he'll get a shot at playing Byrd's position. The dollars would seem to indicate to me that it's his job to lose. I don't dislike Searcy or Duke Williams, but think they'll be backups. Gilmore, McKelvin, and A.Williams round out the D-backs, so it would not seem to me that this position is one of importance in the draft.

 

Chris Williams - 4 years and $13.5 million with $5.5 million guaranteed. Like ILB's, there's not a guard worth drafting in the top-20. His pay says he's a starter none the less.

 

Jairus Wynn/Alan Branch - The recent signing of Wynn and the re-signing of Branch (with $3.1m in bonuses) tells me that they're set on the defensive line. They have their starters of course, but have a ton of depth for getting after quarterbacks. I can't imagine that there's a player at #9 at any of the positions that would have any value, and trading up for Clowney just doesn't make sense.

 

There may be other opinions of course, but I think that the Bills have clearly tipped their hands. Recent trades and acquisitions seem to fill multiple positions of need, and the dollars paid to boot suggest that they're not just picking up backups but starters. Erik Pears grades out almost dead last as a RT, but is penciled in as a starter. Hairston can't stay healthy enough to be counted on. It is to me the only clear position of need. Where that leaves me is a clear pick in the draft. Robinson or Matthews and moving Glenn to the right side or more likely Lewan. There is zero doubt in my mind that one of the three will be there when the Bills pick at #9. I could even see them trading down in the first and still getting a guy like Kouandjio and adding more picks later.

 

You were doing fine until you suggested Glenn to move to the RT position...first, Marrone won't do that...second, why would anyone want to? I'm not being mean here, but Glenn has emerged as a really good, and maybe becomes an elite, LT who HAS ACTUALLY played in the NFL for a couple years...why move him to RT...taking the Rookie and moving HIM to RT makes the most sense, and its what I believe will be done...JMO

[Luxy312]

You were doing fine until you suggested Glenn to move to the RT position...first, Marrone won't do that...second, why would anyone want to? I'm not being mean here, but Glenn has emerged as a really good, and maybe becomes an elite, LT who HAS ACTUALLY played in the NFL for a couple years...why move him to RT...taking the Rookie and moving HIM to RT makes the most sense, and its what I believe will be done...JMO

 

No offense taken. If you follow through the thread, you'll understand that that's not what I would do at all. I'm simply suggesting that when you have 1 and 1A LT's coming out in the draft this year (Robinson/Matthews), that I wouldn't expect the Bills to play them on the right side. Wasted pick if that is the case. Lewan easily slots to RT though so that's what I'm hoping for.

[smapdi]

Great break down of their current situation entering the draft. I cannot wait for May 8th or whatever it is because this draft could be a turning point for this team for years to come. IMO, this team has a lot of pieces in place to be a playoff team & can accomplish that with a great draft.

 

As the roster stands, the offensive line is the weakest unit on the team. Going deeper, RT is a tire fire. Pears graded out as the worst run-blocking RT which is bad news for a team that plans on running the ball as much as the Bills do. The draft is very fluid & who knows what happens the first 8 picks but if most of the mocks out there are correct & no one crazy drops (Clowney, Watkins, Mack), I think you cross your fingers and hope Jake Matthews is there. Instant upgrade & an elite OT. He has the versatility to play any spot along the line (very underrated attribute) & we will be set with 2 stud bookend OT's for hopefully the next 7 or 8 years. I definitely would not move Glenn over to RT; if it ain't broke, don't fix it.

 

I am really hoping there is a run on QB's in the top 8 & TB takes Mike Evans to replace Mike Williams so Matthews is waiting for us. If not, Lewan is right up there talent wise with any of the elite OT's of this season and last. He has some serious off the field concerns which is the only reason he would be available at 9. He's talented enough that he would've went in the top 3 last season if he declared. If the Bills are turned off by his red flags, I am digging your suggestion of trading down and going after CYRUS KOUANDJIO. They could pick up an extra 2nd(which would be HUGE in this draft) and still get their RT.

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2014/profiles/cyrus-kouandjio?id=2543482

 

He fits their mold for the big, strong, physically imposing offensive linemen @ 6'7" / 322lb. First team All-American and First team All-SEC. His biggest knock is that he is raw but a lot of his weaknesses can be coached away- especially with Marrone being a o-line coach. His lack of a mean streak is a little troubling but he is only 21 years old & projects to be a "bull dozing RT"

 

That extra 2nd could go a long way in this deep draft. We could grab a TE like Troy Niklas out of ND who is 6'6 / 270LB who is one of the few top tier TE's that played the vast majority of their snaps along the line. He is also raw but loves to block & would be like another OT out there. His size coupled with his 32 inch vertical make him pretty much uncoverable in the redzone going up for jump balls. Since they seem to really want to run the ball, adding a TE like Niklas makes perfect sense instead of the TE/WR hybrids who have very little in-line experience & are so-so blockers.

 

You could then use that extra 2nd to address the next biggest need: DE, OG, S (all depends of value). Moving to the 43, Mario is really their only true 43 DE. Hughes should be a stud on passing downs (along with Lawson) but they definitely could use another DE. Especially if Mario were to go down. Maybe someone like Kony Ealy or Demarcus Lawerence if they fancy a DE

 

With reports that Graham could be slotted into S to replace, maybe they look for a CB or S (if they keep Graham at CB).

 

I also feel like they need to address OG as early as the 3rd round. They need to push Williams and Urbik for their jobs. Depth is also key and it clearly bit them in the ass last year. They need to walk away from this draft with a bare minimum of 2 new offensive linemen.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

During every offseason, we as fans love to speculate on what the front office is thinking going into the draft. Are they fixated on a player or position? Are there particular positions of "need" that would dictate a draft pick, like Gilmore and Dareus did? Alternatively, will they simply pick the best available player on their board regardless of need, ala Spiller? I offer up the following observations based on what the team has done in the offseason thus far:

 

Brandon Spikes - Signed a 1-year deal worth approximately $3.25 million plus performance based incentives. Presumably, he will be the guy in the middle on running downs, such that Kiko can move to his natural position at weak side linebacker. From a draft perspective, I don't have any ILB's ranked even in the top-20 draft prospects, so this would make sense.

 

Keith Rivers - Signed a 2-year deal worth approximately $4 million. With the signing bonus, $2.4 million of that will be paid this year. Schwartz is clearly setting up to run a 4-3 defense this season and Rivers would make sense on the outside opposite Kiko. From the draft, I'm sure the Bills would love to get Khalil Mack, but expecting that he'll fall to them at #9 is a pipe dream. If they have enough love for Anthony Barr, then Rivers could simply represent insurance such that if both are gone, they're still left with a starter.

 

Scott Chandler - Re-signed with the bills to a 2-year deal worth $4.75 million, of which about $2.75 million will be paid this season. Over the last 3 years, Chandler has been the Bills second leading receiver, behind only Stevie Johnson. Without over reading this, I can't see them picking Ebron in the 1st while still having Chandler, Smith, Moaki, Gragg, and also recently signed Caussin at TE. Chandler is the key though given that the rest are very much TBD's.

 

Mike Williams - The Bills traded a pick for him and will pay him just $2.2 million this year and $6.2 million next year. Next years compensation though will only be paid if he's retained. He's a local product and playing here with a chip on his shoulder. I pencil him in as the #2 at this point with Woods, Goodwin, Easley, Graham, and a score of others behind that. The availability of Sammy Watkins in the first is highly unlikely, and this would seem to mean to me that they're not #9 high on Mike Evans.

 

Corey Graham - His deal was 4-years and $16 million with $8.1 million guaranteed. That's a pretty big nut to say the least. Marrone has already said that he'll get a shot at playing Byrd's position. The dollars would seem to indicate to me that it's his job to lose. I don't dislike Searcy or Duke Williams, but think they'll be backups. Gilmore, McKelvin, and A.Williams round out the D-backs, so it would not seem to me that this position is one of importance in the draft.

 

Chris Williams - 4 years and $13.5 million with $5.5 million guaranteed. Like ILB's, there's not a guard worth drafting in the top-20. His pay says he's a starter none the less.

 

Jairus Wynn/Alan Branch - The recent signing of Wynn and the re-signing of Branch (with $3.1m in bonuses) tells me that they're set on the defensive line. They have their starters of course, but have a ton of depth for getting after quarterbacks. I can't imagine that there's a player at #9 at any of the positions that would have any value, and trading up for Clowney just doesn't make sense.

 

There may be other opinions of course, but I think that the Bills have clearly tipped their hands. Recent trades and acquisitions seem to fill multiple positions of need, and the dollars paid to boot suggest that they're not just picking up backups but starters. Erik Pears grades out almost dead last as a RT, but is penciled in as a starter. Hairston can't stay healthy enough to be counted on. It is to me the only clear position of need. Where that leaves me is a clear pick in the draft. Robinson or Matthews and moving Glenn to the right side or more likely Lewan. There is zero doubt in my mind that one of the three will be there when the Bills pick at #9. I could even see them trading down in the first and still getting a guy like Kouandjio and adding more picks later.

 

sounds about right

[Prickly Pete]

I think they have been trying to shore up the weaknesses, but that the 1st pick will be BPA. If they don't select a O-lineman with that pick, I believe they will address it later. I definitely believe that the O-line is the weakest link at this point, but they don't necessarily need to use the 9th pick to get the kind of improvement necessary.

 

The 9th pick, in a loaded draft like this, should be an impact player, and it's not the place to worry about "filling holes".

 

I want a play-maker, and hopefully it's position that touches the ball.

[Bronc24]

As a HS Head Coach and OC, of course I want the skill positions to be top notch. I've gone on record that I would love to see Sammy Watkins in a Bills' uniform. However, as a HC / OC, I also know that success in football starts up front.

 

If an OT drops to us, we simply must take him.

 

The reason is twofold: First, with a young QB, you need a solid offensive line. It doesn't matter if you have a bunch of WR'S to throw to if you don’t have time. Secondly, something not mentioned much here us CJ's lingering ankle injury last season which killed him. With a healthy CJ and Fred, a good OL can dominate in the run game. This makes life a hell of a lot easier for EJ as well.

 

Would I like the Ferrari? Hell yeah. But that means I can't properly function day to day because I can't transport the family (Wait a second....).

 

The game of football is won in the trenches. We desperately need a solid RT and a dominant OL. Sometimes the less "sexy" option is the smartest choice.

Edited April 10, 2014 by Bronc24

[Mark80]

i think it will tell you pretty much what ever you want it too...

 

 

 

 

 

and schwartz has consistently gone after pass rushers with premium picks.

 

I've seen this mentioned a few times now. Since when does a new defensive coordinator dictate who we pick with premium picks? Sure he can have some influence, but no way is he deciding who we're picking #9.

[Manther]

Firstly, I am hoping he is available at #9 and we take him being Mike Evans. Secondly, Graham may start at S or be the 2nd or 3rd CB. Regardless, you need at least 3 CBs in this league and if Graham plays S we need another CB. So, if Duke Williams or someone else besides Graham don't start at S we need another DB. However, the offseason is suggesting we take a RT early. I think we can find one in the 2nd or 3rd, but, would not be against it in the 1st round.

[BigBuff423]

No offense taken. If you follow through the thread, you'll understand that that's not what I would do at all. I'm simply suggesting that when you have 1 and 1A LT's coming out in the draft this year (Robinson/Matthews), that I wouldn't expect the Bills to play them on the right side. Wasted pick if that is the case. Lewan easily slots to RT though so that's what I'm hoping for.

 

Got it...and in general, I would agree except that the BILLS are now in a position to Draft BPA, and if that were Robinson (not happening) or Matthews (also unlikely depending on where they Draft), then I still don't think Marrone would move Glenn, but instead would have an extremely talent RT....but thanks for an appropriate response and not overreacting to some good discussion....

[Hplarrm]

The way I see the 2014 draft is that first who knows, buy its an interesting to be wrong about. The real deal is that a draft strategy works until it doesn't and as soon as one difficult to predict thing happens (usually in the first 5 picks but at some point in Rd1) as someone trades up/down, an obvious talent like a Randy Moss starts to slide, or a surprise pick such as whatshisname, the RB with multiple knee injuries the Bills took in the 1st makes all the pre-draft theorizing and gameplanning meaningless.

 

This being noted, its simply good fun to be wrong about the NFL draft so my guess is:

 

1. The QB position in this draft is weal compared to the Andrew Luck day. However, the effect of this means that it may well be easiest to see a run created as soon as someone overspends from a football perspective but right on target from a business perspective and takes Manziel, Bridgewater or Bortles with a top 5 pick.

 

This selection then forces the 4+ teams which need to get their franchise pick from this draft to either pull the trigger on the remaining QB they like or trade up into the top 5-10 before the QB they want is gone.

 

If a mere two (and actually one being picked in the top 5 likely starts a run on the other 2)are picked, then my guess is that of the 8 picks prior to us, three are QBs and by force when a Clowney or Mack gets picked then we likely have a choice between ay least 2 if not all three of the best OTs with #9 (Matthews, Robinson, Lewan.

 

2. If all three are there (and perhaps if only two) then by all means trade down. Its impossible to predict what trades can and must be done in the timed crucible of draft day. However, our need for more talent means if we can get an extra second rounder by trading down AND still get a top 3 OT talent then get er done.

 

3. If a run on the limited QB talent occurs then theoretically a Watkins or Mack might slip to us. My guess is that will ne a nice problem to have if a top 5 talent slips to #9. If Mack drops to 9, I probably take him because he is good and also versatile, LB is such a need, and its good business fir a business providing an entertainment product. If Watkins AND Evans both fall, maybe I take Watkins but I think I might make a trade if I can for great value. However, my top wish is that I can trade down and still get a top 3 OT and the BPA second rounder who I hope is a 1st year starter talent as recent past 2nd rounders have been.