D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted April 7, 2014 Posted April 7, 2014 I haven't done any research in awhile, but another blog got me to thinking-I know it's dangerous! The question I was pondering deals with success early in the draft. Which between an Offensive Lineman or "skill" guy, drafted in the first round, is a better bet? Using Pro Football references draft finder and approximate value the answer is pretty clear. Offensive Lineman drafted in the first 15 picks have produced a career AV of 56 and the skill guys only 45. For those of you unfamiliar with this system, a typical starter's season might be something like this: 1-4 weak starter; 5-9 solid to good starter; 10-14 star player; 15+ all-time great season. The eleven point career difference using this model gives you a pretty good idea that O-Lineman are a better bet. Also, If you carry this out to the top 30 picks, it will yield a similar result. O-Line is 47 on average, skill guys only 36. My conclusion, you on average get 25-30% greater career value by drafting an Offensive Lineman ahead of a Skill guy in round 1. The Bills have a better chance of hitting on their #9 pick by going with an offensive lineman. I am in no way advocating never taking a skill guy or a QB. Your thoughts?
D521646 Posted April 7, 2014 Posted April 7, 2014 My thoughts are in line with yours. I would have no issue if the Bills took an OL at 9, BUT I would prefer that they wait until the 2nd, or 3rd where they can get the likes of Moses, and Jackson. I am also warming to the idea of grabbing a QB in rounds 5 or later. Tim-
Kirby Jackson Posted April 7, 2014 Posted April 7, 2014 I haven't done any research in awhile, but another blog got me to thinking-I know it's dangerous! The question I was pondering deals with success early in the draft. Which between an Offensive Lineman or "skill" guy, drafted in the first round, is a better bet? Using Pro Football references draft finder and approximate value the answer is pretty clear. Offensive Lineman drafted in the first 15 picks have produced a career AV of 56 and the skill guys only 45. For those of you unfamiliar with this system, a typical starter's season might be something like this: 1-4 weak starter; 5-9 solid to good starter; 10-14 star player; 15+ all-time great season. The eleven point career difference using this model gives you a pretty good idea that O-Lineman are a better bet. Also, If you carry this out to the top 30 picks, it will yield a similar result. O-Line is 47 on average, skill guys only 36. My conclusion, you on average get 25-30% greater career value by drafting an Offensive Lineman ahead of a Skill guy in round 1. The Bills have a better chance of hitting on their #9 pick by going with an offensive lineman. I am in no way advocating never taking a skill guy or a QB. Your thoughts? Interesting analysis but it only tells half of the story. The flip side of it is the availability of quality players at other positions. If you want a franchise QB you don't often find them in free agency or the middle of the draft. If you think about how many starting caliber lineman changed hands this offseason (as a %) compared to QB or elite skill player it is a lot. Desean Jackson is the only elite skill player that changed hands and I don't really count McCown, Vick or Schaub. They are bottom of the barrel starters at best and more likely backups at this point. So the point being is you need both, good OL and good QBs (or whatever). You have to address those needs when the correct opportunities present themselves. Fortunately the Bills may be at a point where they can go BPA which is always the best when it comes to value.
BetterNextYearRight? Posted April 7, 2014 Posted April 7, 2014 My only question with your post is does it take into account the fact that skill players typically have shorter careers and peak more then OLine do? Not questioning the point that we would probably be better off taking a G/T in RD1, really think it's about what is there. I'm not sold on Matthews being a sure thing but if somehow someway Robinson fell I'd be screaming at the TV if the bills passed. Robinson to me is the only OL worth taking in the top 10.
TPS Posted April 7, 2014 Posted April 7, 2014 My only question with your post is does it take into account the fact that skill players typically have shorter careers and peak more then OLine do? Not questioning the point that we would probably be better off taking a G/T in RD1, really think it's about what is there. I'm not sold on Matthews being a sure thing but if somehow someway Robinson fell I'd be screaming at the TV if the bills passed. Robinson to me is the only OL worth taking in the top 10. Robinson might even be worth trading up for.
Bills Fan of St Augustine Posted April 7, 2014 Posted April 7, 2014 Everyone I've read has Mathews as the most sure and safest pick in the draft. Why the skepticsm? He has all the tools and is pedigreed. We're talking being set at OT for the next 5-10 years. Pay them both because it is worth it!
smapdi Posted April 7, 2014 Posted April 7, 2014 The top 3 OT's seem to be your best bet for "sure-fire" contribution to team success year 1. Skill position players, especially WR's, usually have a period of getting used to the NFL & that level on competition. They need to learn an entirely new playbook/system & can't get by on just their dominating physical attributes which helped them dominate the NCAA. QB's are in the same boat as well; they take a lot of time to get acclimated to the NFL as evidenced by Manuel last season. Offensive linemen face the lowest learning curve. At the most basic level, they go out and block the player in front of them. They don't need to learn complicated routes or plays (for the most part) of a NFL playbook. Greg Robinson, Jake Matthews, or Taylor Lewan could come in & start from day 1. All 3 of them have a bunch of college starts under their belt & should be ready to help improve their new offensive lines immediately. Look at how Glenn was able to contribute his rookie season and really not skip a beat. This immediate impact is one of the reasons I am leaning towards going OT @ 9. On top of that, RT is now this team's most dire need with the addition of Mike Williams to our WR corp. The offensive line needs a lot of help & we should come out of this draft with a bare minimum of 2 new players. What happens if Cordy Glenn goes down? I do not want to see Eric Pears playing any major part of this team. Manuel needs to be protected so he can develop properly & have time to throw the ball. I don't want to say he is injury prone yet but he suffered 3 separate injuries last season. The running game is also going to be their bread and butter apparently so improving the run blocking is key.
thewildrabbit Posted April 7, 2014 Posted April 7, 2014 My only question with your post is does it take into account the fact that skill players typically have shorter careers and peak more then OLine do? Not questioning the point that we would probably be better off taking a G/T in RD1, really think it's about what is there. I'm not sold on Matthews being a sure thing but if somehow someway Robinson fell I'd be screaming at the TV if the bills passed. Robinson to me is the only OL worth taking in the top 10. Matthews is about a sure a thing as you can get in the NFL IMO. From NFL.com, "BOTTOM LINE Smart, tough, versatile franchise left tackle capable of playing all five positions on the line. Can plug into a starting lineup immediately and will play a long time at a consistently high level. One of the safest picks in the draft, Matthews' best position might even be center" http://www.nfl.com/draft/2014/profiles/jake-matthews?id=2543758 Anyway, the current Bills regime hasn't shown that they are interested in building a top O line thru free agency or the draft. Its almost like they expect Marrone to make some silk purses.
smapdi Posted April 7, 2014 Posted April 7, 2014 Started in 46 of 49 games played. Two-time first-team All-SEC (2012-13) selection. 2013: First-team AP All-American and an Outland Trophy finalist. Started all 13 games at left tackle. Won the national Bobby Bowden Award presented for high performance on the field, in the classroom, and in the community. 2012: Started all 13 games at right tackle. 2011: Honorable mention All-Big 12 pick after starting all 13 games at right tackle. 2010: Honorable mention All-Big 12 pick after playing in 10 games and making seven starts. Misc.: Son of Pro Football Hall of Famer Bruce Matthews. Older brother Kevin was a 2-year starter at A&M (2008-09) and younger brother Mike is a current Aggie offensive lineman. Cousin is Clay Matthews of the Green Bay Packers. STRENGTHS Big, strong, athletic, natural bender. Exceptional technician. Explosive six-inch punch -- quick, active hands. Outstanding base, balance, body control and hand placement. Drives defenders off the ball -- outstanding run blocker. Explosive hip snap. Takes good angles to the second level. Plays with very good awareness -- shows very good athletic ability flipping his hips and adjusting to moving pockets with a jitterbug quarterback. Keen to recognize and quick to adjust to the blitz. Strong finisher -- displays a mean streak and seeks to finish. Has long-snapping experience. Hails from football royalty family -- third-generation NFLer. Tough competitor. Very focused and determined. Humble and grounded. Outstanding all-around character. Film junkie. Started in the SEC for 3-plus seasons. Extremely durable -- missed no time to injuries. I know RT is about the least sexy pick but this kid has immediate impact from day 1 written all over him. He is the perfect storm for what you want from a top 10 pick: -Immediate impact -Started 46 games in the best conference in the NCAA- SEC -Experience at RT and LT; can also play interior -Extremely durable -Plays with a mean streak Improving this offensive line is priority #1 with the addition of Mike Williams. We have all the pieces in place to have a very good offense: WR1: Mike Williams WR2: Robert Woods WR3: Stevie Johnson WR4: Marquise Goodwin WR5: TJ Graham That is one hell of a WR corp. Stevie will dominate from the slot. We have 2 very good outside WR's with the addition of Williams (potential to be a WR1). Deep threats in Goodwin & Graham Then you have one of the most dynamic playmakers in the league with CJ Spiller. Should return to his 6.0 ypc form with an upgraded line. A OT like Matthews excels getting into the 2nd level & should make our screen game close to unstoppable with Spiller. FJax is FJax. We now have Dixon to get those tough short yardage yards. Upgrading RT is the most important piece left. We need defenses to believe Manuel can get the ball down the field so things open up for Spiller/FJax. Matthews or Lewan can come in from day 1 & do that. There really isn't any other position that could impact the quality of this team like adding a blue-chip RT would do for this offense
Kellyto83TD Posted April 7, 2014 Posted April 7, 2014 Ok look we need a RIGHT tackle, we do not need a LEFT tackle. LEFT tackles you take first round, RIGHT Tackles you take later on. We addressed LG in free agency I know fans don't want to hear that but that is what Whaley did. We need a RIGHT tackle and can find a good starter in the 3rd round. If we go RT in round one then I pray medical staff storm the draft room because Whaley and Company had strokes and went flat stupid. I think the Pick is TE = Ebron if he is still there or we will trade down (My choice).
thebandit27 Posted April 7, 2014 Posted April 7, 2014 I want the best football player at No. 9 overall. If Matthews is there it's a no-brainer...I sincerely doubt he will be though. I'm not at all a fan of Lewan, so given that, I'm not for going OT at 9. I don't care about position in the top 10, especially in a draft this deep; just get a top 10 talent and I'm happy. Ok look we need a RIGHT tackle, we do not need a LEFT tackle. LEFT tackles you take first round, RIGHT Tackles you take later on. We addressed LG in free agency I know fans don't want to hear that but that is what Whaley did. We need a RIGHT tackle and can find a good starter in the 3rd round. If we go RT in round one then I pray medical staff storm the draft room because Whaley and Company had strokes and went flat stupid. I think the Pick is TE = Ebron if he is still there or we will trade down (My choice). So if Matthews or Robinson fell to 9 you'd pass because of the position they play?
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted April 7, 2014 Author Posted April 7, 2014 My only question with your post is does it take into account the fact that skill players typically have shorter careers and peak more then OLine do? Not questioning the point that we would probably be better off taking a G/T in RD1, really think it's about what is there. I'm not sold on Matthews being a sure thing but if somehow someway Robinson fell I'd be screaming at the TV if the bills passed. Robinson to me is the only OL worth taking in the top 10. Yes it does get taken into account. I think the biggest take away is, if you two players who are close in both need and ability, take the lineman. The top 3 OT's seem to be your best bet for "sure-fire" contribution to team success year 1. Skill position players, especially WR's, usually have a period of getting used to the NFL & that level on competition. They need to learn an entirely new playbook/system & can't get by on just their dominating physical attributes which helped them dominate the NCAA. QB's are in the same boat as well; they take a lot of time to get acclimated to the NFL as evidenced by Manuel last season. Offensive linemen face the lowest learning curve. At the most basic level, they go out and block the player in front of them. They don't need to learn complicated routes or plays (for the most part) of a NFL playbook. Greg Robinson, Jake Matthews, or Taylor Lewan could come in & start from day 1. All 3 of them have a bunch of college starts under their belt & should be ready to help improve their new offensive lines immediately. Look at how Glenn was able to contribute his rookie season and really not skip a beat. This immediate impact is one of the reasons I am leaning towards going OT @ 9. On top of that, RT is now this team's most dire need with the addition of Mike Williams to our WR corp. The offensive line needs a lot of help & we should come out of this draft with a bare minimum of 2 new players. What happens if Cordy Glenn goes down? I do not want to see Eric Pears playing any major part of this team. Manuel needs to be protected so he can develop properly & have time to throw the ball. I don't want to say he is injury prone yet but he suffered 3 separate injuries last season. The running game is also going to be their bread and butter apparently so improving the run blocking is key. Absolutely agree. I would also add that WR is very deep in this draft. You can draft one of the top 3 tackles, and feel good that barring something bad i.e. fluke injury, with what you have done. It really sets the organization back to draft a player like Jamarcus Russell and get nothing in return. I know RT is about the least sexy pick but this kid has immediate impact from day 1 written all over him. He is the perfect storm for what you want from a top 10 pick: -Immediate impact -Started 46 games in the best conference in the NCAA- SEC -Experience at RT and LT; can also play interior -Extremely durable -Plays with a mean streak Improving this offensive line is priority #1 with the addition of Mike Williams. We have all the pieces in place to have a very good offense: WR1: Mike Williams WR2: Robert Woods WR3: Stevie Johnson WR4: Marquise Goodwin WR5: TJ Graham That is one hell of a WR corp. Stevie will dominate from the slot. We have 2 very good outside WR's with the addition of Williams (potential to be a WR1). Deep threats in Goodwin & Graham Then you have one of the most dynamic playmakers in the league with CJ Spiller. Should return to his 6.0 ypc form with an upgraded line. A OT like Matthews excels getting into the 2nd level & should make our screen game close to unstoppable with Spiller. FJax is FJax. We now have Dixon to get those tough short yardage yards. Upgrading RT is the most important piece left. We need defenses to believe Manuel can get the ball down the field so things open up for Spiller/FJax. Matthews or Lewan can come in from day 1 & do that. There really isn't any other position that could impact the quality of this team like adding a blue-chip RT would do for this offense Very good analysis. Getting better in the O line is extremely important and doable. We have greatly improved our defense. Our Wide receivers are better. We have always been strong in the backfield. Like it or not, the team has chosen their guy at QB. That leaves the Oline. Glenn-Williams-Wood and 2 rookies like Gabe Jackson and Jake Matthews looks formidable and we would also have depth then. I don't think we can plan on not having injuries. Having a broken down line is a sure way to a bad season. Ok look we need a RIGHT tackle, we do not need a LEFT tackle. LEFT tackles you take first round, RIGHT Tackles you take later on. We addressed LG in free agency I know fans don't want to hear that but that is what Whaley did. We need a RIGHT tackle and can find a good starter in the 3rd round. If we go RT in round one then I pray medical staff storm the draft room because Whaley and Company had strokes and went flat stupid. I think the Pick is TE = Ebron if he is still there or we will trade down (My choice). I think you need to consider the risk associated with both Evans and especially Ebron. Grabbing one of the top 3 tackles is much less risky and fills a need.
Herb62 Posted April 7, 2014 Posted April 7, 2014 Ok look we need a RIGHT tackle, we do not need a LEFT tackle. LEFT tackles you take first round, RIGHT Tackles you take later on. We addressed LG in free agency I know fans don't want to hear that but that is what Whaley did. We need a RIGHT tackle and can find a good starter in the 3rd round. If we go RT in round one then I pray medical staff storm the draft room because Whaley and Company had strokes and went flat stupid. I think the Pick is TE = Ebron if he is still there or we will trade down (My choice). The reason you take the left tackle and start him at RT is if Cordy Glenn gets hurt you have LT, if you don't who is your LT if Cordy is hurt? And you know shortly after this happens without a back-up plan your QB(s) goes down next.
Original Byrd Man Posted April 7, 2014 Posted April 7, 2014 Have you ever seen any of the OT's listed as potentially a 1st over all? No because although they are the best in the draft they are not elite. A RT at 9 is a huge reach.
thebandit27 Posted April 7, 2014 Posted April 7, 2014 (edited) Ok look we need a RIGHT tackle, we do not need a LEFT tackle. LEFT tackles you take first round, RIGHT Tackles you take later on. We addressed LG in free agency I know fans don't want to hear that but that is what Whaley did. We need a RIGHT tackle and can find a good starter in the 3rd round. If we go RT in round one then I pray medical staff storm the draft room because Whaley and Company had strokes and went flat stupid. I think the Pick is TE = Ebron if he is still there or we will trade down (My choice). The reason you take the left tackle and start him at RT is if Cordy Glenn gets hurt you have LT, if you don't who is your LT if Cordy is hurt? And you know shortly after this happens without a back-up plan your QB(s) goes down next. Oddly, the evidence from the NFL doesn't really support what you're saying. Each of the Superbowl teams lost their LT to injury for much of the season; both started relative unknowns at the position and did just fine. Cincinnati started a former 4th round pick and career backup at LT most of the season and won their division. Teams don't often move an OT when one gets hurt, but rather prefer to keep as much continuity as possible. Just some thoughts to add to the discussion Edited April 7, 2014 by thebandit27
smapdi Posted April 7, 2014 Posted April 7, 2014 (edited) Ok look we need a RIGHT tackle, we do not need a LEFT tackle. LEFT tackles you take first round, RIGHT Tackles you take later on. We addressed LG in free agency I know fans don't want to hear that but that is what Whaley did. We need a RIGHT tackle and can find a good starter in the 3rd round. If we go RT in round one then I pray medical staff storm the draft room because Whaley and Company had strokes and went flat stupid. I think the Pick is TE = Ebron if he is still there or we will trade down (My choice). I would argue that RT is just as important as LT in today's game. The best defenses have 2 great pass rushers & you nneed to be able block both. I'm looking towards building a Superbowl contender.. Not just getting by. Secondly, all 3 of those top OTs have the ability to play LT. What happens if Glenn goes down with an injury? I'd feel a lot better moving over Matthews or Lewan to play LT (your self proclaimed most important position on the line) then some 3rd round RT prospect who *might* just be good enough to play RT. This team isn't just short a single RT for a great line. We need more depth. Another reason to take a guy like Matthews is the fact he can play every single spot on the line. Versatility is a major selling point of the big 3. You suggest taking Ebron but I just don't think he makes that big of an impact. Especially after they grabbed Mike Williams. Optimistically, Ebron would catch 50 balls. I don't see this offense airing it out like NO or DEN. We already have a full house of pass catchers with Mike Williams on board. Yes, TE is a need but I'd prefer someone like Niklas out of ND who is a dominating blocker. He should be there for us in the 2nd. Matthews or Lewan will make an impact on every single offensive snap. Matthews started 46 games in the SEC & dominated. Give me Matthews @ 9 & then ASJ or Niklas in the 2nd instead of Ebron @ 9 and some significantly less talented OT in the 2nd or 3rd Edited April 7, 2014 by smapdi
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted April 7, 2014 Author Posted April 7, 2014 I would argue that RT is just as important as LT in today's game. The best defenses have 2 great pass rushers & you nneed to be able block both. I'm looking towards building a Superbowl contender.. Not just getting by. Secondly, all 3 of those top OTs have the ability to play LT. What happens if Glenn goes down with an injury? I'd feel a lot better moving over Matthews or Lewan to play LT (your self proclaimed most important position on the line) then some 3rd round RT prospect who *might* just be good enough to play RT. This team isn't just short a single RT for a great line. We need more depth. Another reason to take a guy like Matthews is the fact he can play every single spot on the line. Versatility is a major selling point of the big 3. You suggest taking Ebron but I just don't think he makes that big of an impact. Especially after they grabbed Mike Williams. Optimistically, Ebron would catch 50 balls. Matthews or Lewan will make an impact on every single offensive snap. Matthews started 46 games in the SEC & dominated. Give me Matthews @ 9 & then ASJ or Nikklas in the 2nd instead of Ebron @ 9 and some significantly less talented OT in the 2nd or 3rd Very strong points indeed! Taking Ebron over guys like Matthews are the kind of picks you look back at and say what was I !@#$ing thinking! They go play for a decade for a divisional rival and make Pro Bowls. Vernon Davis, who is sometimes charitably compared to Ebron, took a long time to develop. I just don't want to risk a potential bust with a TE. Why not take the Tackle (Matthews/Lewan), Grab a good guard Gabe Jackson, Troy Nicklas at TE and a defensive end(Chricton). We can ball with anybody if EJ improves.
thewildrabbit Posted April 7, 2014 Posted April 7, 2014 Ok look we need a RIGHT tackle, we do not need a LEFT tackle. LEFT tackles you take first round, RIGHT Tackles you take later on. We addressed LG in free agency I know fans don't want to hear that but that is what Whaley did. We need a RIGHT tackle and can find a good starter in the 3rd round. If we go RT in round one then I pray medical staff storm the draft room because Whaley and Company had strokes and went flat stupid. I think the Pick is TE = Ebron if he is still there or we will trade down (My choice). The reason you take the left tackle and start him at RT is if Cordy Glenn gets hurt you have LT, if you don't who is your LT if Cordy is hurt? And you know shortly after this happens without a back-up plan your QB(s) goes down next. Right tackle, left tackle...it doesn't matter as you need two good tackles to survive in today's NFL. Even the Bills website had an article stating that you need two top tackles because the best pass rusher can easily move to either side. Besides, you want to have decent enough talent on the right side so that should the starting LT go down with an injury there won't be that great a drop off in talent. http://www.buffalobills.com/news/article-1/ON-THE-CLOCK-Rise-of-the-right-tackle/30cbf54d-12e1-46b7-9ae7-7115c5066dea The increasing importance of the right tackle position is an emerging trend in the NFL. Very strong points indeed! Taking Ebron over guys like Matthews are the kind of picks you look back at and say what was I !@#$ing thinking! They go play for a decade for a divisional rival and make Pro Bowls. Vernon Davis, who is sometimes charitably compared to Ebron, took a long time to develop. I just don't want to risk a potential bust with a TE. Why not take the Tackle (Matthews/Lewan), Grab a good guard Gabe Jackson, Troy Nicklas at TE and a defensive end(Chricton). We can ball with anybody if EJ improves. Tony Hunter says hello!
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted April 7, 2014 Author Posted April 7, 2014 Right tackle, left tackle...it doesn't matter as you need two good tackles to survive in today's NFL. Even the Bills website had an article stating that you need two top tackles because the best pass rusher can easily move to either side. Besides, you want to have decent enough talent on the right side so that should the starting LT go down with an injury there won't be that great a drop off in talent. http://www.buffalobi...e7-7115c5066dea The increasing importance of the right tackle position is an emerging trend in the NFL. Tony Hunter says hello! Nice Call
thebandit27 Posted April 7, 2014 Posted April 7, 2014 I'm starting to get confused here... I thought the premise was to pick an OT if there are two similarly rated players available (a concept I'm not sure I agree with, but that's what the initial post states). Now we're discussing the possibility o passing on Matthews. Folks, he's very, very, very unlikely to be there at 9. If we're talking about an OT at 9, it's either Lewan or Zack Martin, neither of whom I believe are measurably better than guys like Richardson, Bitonio, Moses, etc that may in fact be available in round 2.
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