smapdi Posted April 8, 2014 Posted April 8, 2014 i agree with some parts of all this BTW but completely don't on others. Forst you point to Spillers YPC being not too bad. 900 yards averages out into the 60s per game. Think of a fantasy RBs output. If you had a guy getting only 60 yards a game and only a few TDs a year, he'd be your 3rd or 4th guy. But in real life it doesn't compute to much better. Second, it's not just about stats. It's about how well he played at times. And he was horrible when it mattered. I have no stats for this but his willingness to pick up 1st downs or big chunks of yardage when it counted were missing. Third, how can we judge the QB play and the play of the rest of the team and blame CJ for not producing? Fred Jackson says it all. He consistently picked up first downs and grinding out yardage when his number was called on. Again, stats don't tell the whole story. It's about production when it was most important. Fourth, injuries??? Again, look at 30+ year old, battered Fred Jackson who doesn't even come close to CJs abilities but surpassed him as the person to rely on when it counted. I don't disagree with what you say about his receptions. Your absolutely right. He needed more touches in space, and in screen plays. He does have tremendous ability. I'm not comparing him to Freddy or Dixon. Your right. They are a different kind of back altogether and personally I think they want and need someone like Spiller for that change of pace. But that's besides the point. He has had "nagging injuries", your words, not mine. Is turning 27-28 this year, and has shown he cannot be a "300 carry back" again, your words, in a contract year when he will most likely be asking for a large contract. My argument is that you get something for a guy (Peters comes to mind) that won't be here in another year (Byrd comes to mind) instead of losing him for nothing. All I'm saying, is that if you can get a 2-3rd round draft pick for a RB closing in on 30 with the issues that he's had, then you do it. RBs can be picked up late in drafts and compete. It's been proven in the NFL. I agree that he will most likely be better this year as well, especially of we take an OT but even if we don't, CJ shouldn't have a problem. But that doesn't eliminate the situation that is in front of us. I wasn't thrilled with his 4.6 ypc but some people were making him out to be a total bust. I'm sure a lot of people around here would be all over Matt Forte, the 2nd leading rusher in the NFL last year- he averaged 4.6 ypc When used correctly, Spiller is just too talented to trade away. Guys like him win you football games. Even if you got a 2nd for him, that player wouldn't have the ability to take over games like Spiller can. Yes, he's never going to be a 300+ carry, jam it down your throat guy but that was apparent when they drafted him.. it just didn't come out of nowhere. Over the past 5 seasons, only 3 players have managed to average 6.0 ypc on over 200 attempts: Adrian Peterson, Jamall Charles, and CJ Spiller There is no reason Spiller shouldn't be the focus of this offense next season. If we can get a OT like Lewan or Matthews who can dominate in the 2nd level, he should eat teams alive in the screen game. I'm talking 60-70 receptions should be a no brainer.
mrags Posted April 8, 2014 Posted April 8, 2014 That's where I disagree. I don't think he should be the focus of the offense. We've tried that and it didn't work. He played his best when he was in a supporting role. Change of pace and getting 10-12 carries a game and 4-6 receptions. And yiu can't use him as a focus while playing the type of football that Marrone is heading towards. Which is a run the ball, stop the run type of briluisong game. He's better in a more open, Chip Kelly type of offense. Which is why he played so well under Chan.
Braedenstearns Posted April 8, 2014 Posted April 8, 2014 Well I guess im glad you guys don't run the Bills... we would give talented players up, and never make the playoffs.
NoSaint Posted April 8, 2014 Posted April 8, 2014 (edited) That's where I disagree. I don't think he should be the focus of the offense. We've tried that and it didn't work. He played his best when he was in a supporting role. Change of pace and getting 10-12 carries a game and 4-6 receptions. And yiu can't use him as a focus while playing the type of football that Marrone is heading towards. Which is a run the ball, stop the run type of briluisong game. He's better in a more open, Chip Kelly type of offense. Which is why he played so well under Chan. the high end of that is 18 touches a game which is just shy of 300 touches a season, with your low end at 225ish. thats a pretty hefty role in the offense. About 18 touches a game is also what i think he should be at, ideally. at 250 touches (right in the middle,) using kirbys numbers up thread that i assume are right, would be 1450 yards from scrimmage and 6-7 TDs if he maintained the same ballpark averages from the last few years of yards per touch, and tds per touch Edited April 8, 2014 by NoSaint
mrags Posted April 8, 2014 Posted April 8, 2014 1450 yards combined with 6-7 TDs is nothing that cannot be replaced with a 4th round RB from Boston. So a 2nd for CJ with another mod round pick sounds like a steal to me. Well I guess im glad you guys don't run the Bills... we would give talented players up, and never make the playoffs. and usually I'm one of the ones that battles for keeping good players. Just don't think he's anything special because he can't do it every down, he's always nicked up, and he's in a contract year and at the age of 28, he's not worth resigning for a big contract. So therefor, get something for him while you can or your gonna let him walk just like Byrd for nothing.
Braedenstearns Posted April 8, 2014 Posted April 8, 2014 and usually I'm one of the ones that battles for keeping good players. Just don't think he's anything special because he can't do it every down, he's always nicked up, and he's in a contract year and at the age of 28, he's not worth resigning for a big contract. So therefor, get something for him while you can or your gonna let him walk just like Byrd for nothing. Not just Spiller. If people listened to this board, we would have a rookie team every year a new coaching staff and what not. Someone has a bad year, he's trash! Then we wonder why we dont make the playoffs? Its because to much talent the bills have they don't keep... Yes, you might be one of the people who likes to keep good talent! That's great! But most people like to get rid of all are top players! Side note- Spiller won't cost much anyway! The RB market Is so low! Freddie will retire soon, sign CJ and get another power back!
NoSaint Posted April 8, 2014 Posted April 8, 2014 (edited) 1450 yards combined with 6-7 TDs is nothing that cannot be replaced with a 4th round RB from Boston. So a 2nd for CJ with another mod round pick sounds like a steal to me. and usually I'm one of the ones that battles for keeping good players. Just don't think he's anything special because he can't do it every down, he's always nicked up, and he's in a contract year and at the age of 28, he's not worth resigning for a big contract. So therefor, get something for him while you can or your gonna let him walk just like Byrd for nothing. i understand - i just think you are underestimating how good of a season that is. at just 15 touches a game it would be approximately 7th in the league among running backs in production. behind Mccoy (366 touches), charles (329), forte (363), moreno (301), lynch (337) and bush (277).... It would be, not to return to the bush vs spiller debate, but very similar to reggie bush numbers, or demarco murray is right in that same area. if you got him to 18 touches per game, and he was able to stay healthy and at those averages hed be behind only mccoy charles and forte, but with just 288 touches. if they dont intend to keep him - so be it - get some value. i just think a lot of people dont have a solid perspective on just how productive he could be and he doesnt have a lot of mileage so you might see him last through a 3 year extension. while you might find a good back in the 4th round, i dont think you pencil him in for that kind of production as a given. Edited April 8, 2014 by NoSaint
mrags Posted April 8, 2014 Posted April 8, 2014 Not just Spiller. If people listened to this board, we would have a rookie team every year a new coaching staff and what not. Someone has a bad year, he's trash! Then we wonder why we dont make the playoffs? Its because to much talent the bills have they don't keep... Yes, you might be one of the people who likes to keep good talent! That's great! But most people like to get rid of all are top players! Side note- Spiller won't cost much anyway! The RB market Is so low! Freddie will retire soon, sign CJ and get another power back! that's exactly why CH will think he can get a big contract. Because his stats that you and others have pointed out. You don't think his agent knows that? You don't think his agent knows that the Bills will be in the need of a starting RB for a few years because Freddy is freaking 100? It's very simple. You can replace him with someone that's used more properly in this system (more of a north/south power back style). i understand - i just think you are underestimating how good of a season that is. at just 15 touches a game it would be approximately 7th in the league among running backs in production. behind Mccoy (366 touches), charles (329), forte (363), moreno (301), lynch (337) and bush (277).... It would be, not to return to the bush vs spiller debate, but very similar to reggie bush numbers, or demarco murray is right in that same area. if you got him to 18 touches per game, and he was able to stay healthy and at those averages hed be behind only mccoy charles and forte, but with just 288 touches. if they dont intend to keep him - so be it - get some value. i just think a lot of people dont have a solid perspective on just how productive he could be and he doesnt have a lot of mileage so you might see him last through a 3 year extension. while you might find a good back in the 4th round, i dont think you pencil him in for that kind of production as a given. see above
FireChan Posted April 8, 2014 Posted April 8, 2014 I wasn't thrilled with his 4.6 ypc but some people were making him out to be a total bust. I'm sure a lot of people around here would be all over Matt Forte, the 2nd leading rusher in the NFL last year- he averaged 4.6 ypc When used correctly, Spiller is just too talented to trade away. Guys like him win you football games. Even if you got a 2nd for him, that player wouldn't have the ability to take over games like Spiller can. Yes, he's never going to be a 300+ carry, jam it down your throat guy but that was apparent when they drafted him.. it just didn't come out of nowhere. Over the past 5 seasons, only 3 players have managed to average 6.0 ypc on over 200 attempts: Adrian Peterson, Jamall Charles, and CJ Spiller There is no reason Spiller shouldn't be the focus of this offense next season. If we can get a OT like Lewan or Matthews who can dominate in the 2nd level, he should eat teams alive in the screen game. I'm talking 60-70 receptions should be a no brainer. Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles average 6.0 on 30 attempts a game. Not 10. Don't twist the facts to say Spills is anywhere close to those two.
NoSaint Posted April 8, 2014 Posted April 8, 2014 Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles average 6.0 on 30 attempts a game. Not 10. Don't twist the facts to say Spills is anywhere close to those two. thatd be 480 attempts in a season. the mythical 30 carry a game back has never existed. Petersons absolute beast season was 348 carries, which is under 22 carries a game. he only hit 30 carries twice. heck, he only had 20 carries a total of 9 times that season leaving 7 games of less than 18 carries.
FireChan Posted April 8, 2014 Posted April 8, 2014 Besides, signing Spiller to a long term deal CONDEMNS us to having to sign another "heavy lifting" RB. That's a lot of dough in one position.
NoSaint Posted April 8, 2014 Posted April 8, 2014 Besides, signing Spiller to a long term deal CONDEMNS us to having to sign another "heavy lifting" RB. That's a lot of dough in one position. depends on the deal spiller gets -- reggie bush is a 4 year 16m deal. if in that ballpark, couple him with a solid mid rounder thats a good 1-2 punch for less than 5m a year.
smapdi Posted April 8, 2014 Posted April 8, 2014 Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles average 6.0 on 30 attempts a game. Not 10. Don't twist the facts to say Spills is anywhere close to those two. How is that twisting facts? Go look for yourself: RB's with a minimum of 200 carries who have 6.0 ypc are a very small group. I only went back 5 years. And 200 attempts is 13 carries a game. And 30 attempts a game is 480 carries. Not even close to reality. Thank you, try again
K-9 Posted April 8, 2014 Posted April 8, 2014 Still not seeing much appreciation of the kind of pressure CJ Spiller puts on a defense. And you don't replace that with any 4th or 5th round RB. He has elite talent and elite heart. He doesn't have elite awareness on the field at times. You live with that because of the pressure he puts on opposing defenses. GO BILLS!!!
mrags Posted April 8, 2014 Posted April 8, 2014 Still not seeing much appreciation of the kind of pressure CJ Spiller puts on a defense. And you don't replace that with any 4th or 5th round RB. He has elite talent and elite heart. He doesn't have elite awareness on the field at times. You live with that because of the pressure he puts on opposing defenses. GO BILLS!!! unfortunately, the performances of our QBs last year prove you wrong about the pressure CJ puts in defenses.
3rdand12 Posted April 8, 2014 Posted April 8, 2014 (edited) I think this really hinges on what Hackett is going to call . I think we mostly agree Marrone wants to be able to move the chains pounding the ball between the tackles . But if Nate could throw some Chan Gailey moves in the book Spiller might have a better chance to help the team. They surely know Spillers limitations after last year and you cant run him till he pukes . gotta get him in some space. Edited April 8, 2014 by 3rdand12
mrags Posted April 8, 2014 Posted April 8, 2014 I think this really hinges on what Hackett is going to call . I think we mostly agree Marrone wants to be able to move the chains pounding the ball between the tackles . But if Nate could throw some Chan Gailey moves in the book Spiller might have a better chance to help the team. They surely know Spillers limitations after last year and you cant run him till he pukes . gotta get him in some space. I hope your right. If he plays well , we should head to the postseason.
NoSaint Posted April 8, 2014 Posted April 8, 2014 unfortunately, the performances of our QBs last year prove you wrong about the pressure CJ puts in defenses. So were hanging the performance of a rookie, a UDFA rookie, and Thad on spiller now?
John from Riverside Posted April 8, 2014 Posted April 8, 2014 Besides, signing Spiller to a long term deal CONDEMNS us to having to sign another "heavy lifting" RB. That's a lot of dough in one position. I really think we are looking at a heavy lifting RB in this draft.....Carlos Hyde? You know how you fix lack of awareness for a RB? GET BETTER BLOCKERS
FireChan Posted April 8, 2014 Posted April 8, 2014 I really think we are looking at a heavy lifting RB in this draft.....Carlos Hyde? You know how you fix lack of awareness for a RB? GET BETTER BLOCKERS Yes, we need 5 1st and 2nd rounders on our O-line for our once in a generation RB to have success. Just like all we need is the Seahawks defense for our QB to win more than 6 games.
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