maryland-bills-fan Posted March 30, 2014 Posted March 30, 2014 (edited) Okay, I'm putting this here just for the record and to help people evaluate what the Bills might get for trading down in the 1st round of the draft. The trade value chart was devised by Jimmy Johnson as a guestimate for the odds of getting a starting NFL QB from the draft. I have noticed that it is sorta in the ballpark for trades, although I think it weights the top picks too highly, underrates the bottom of the first round and could use revision every year based upon the quality of this year’s draftees. You can criticize it all you want but if there were a better system out there, don't you think that someone would publish it or that it might have sneaked out of the NFL front offices by now? Anyway, for what it is worth, (and that may not be much), entertain yourself with the following. I have tried to show what are the most likely draft pick trades for the Bills SWAPING first round picks with teams 10 -> 32. Some of the swaps come out pretty even in points for swapping specific picks and on others I have tried to guess the most likely way of figuring out the "spare change". For the trades with the teams at the bottom of the 1st round, they have to use next year's picks (usually their low first round pick) to make the trade, which is usually what is done. Teams usually want to keep multiple picks each year, if only in the lower rounds. Next year's picks are discounted 50% in value, which seems to be accurate from some past trades. We get this first round pick……………in addition, we get the "Xth” pick in these rounds but lose our #9 1st round pick 10th pick…….... 5th and 6th round 11th pick............4th and 6th round 12th pick............3rd round and lose our 4th 13th pick............3rd round 14th pick............3rd and 5th round 15th pick............3rd and 4th round 16th pick............2nd round and lose our 4th 17th pick............2nd round 18th pick............2nd and 4th round and lose our 4th 19th pick............2nd and 4th rounds 20th pick............2nd and 3rd round, and lose our 4th 21st pick.............2nd and 3rd round 22nd pick............2nd, 3rd and 4th round 23rd pick.............2nd, 3rd, 4th & 5th or 2nd&3rd this year and a 2nd round next year 24th pick...............~same 25th pick..................2nd round and next year’s 1st and 2nd round 26th pick...............~ same 27th pick............... 2nd & 4th this year and next year's 1st and 2nd 28th pick..............~same 29th pick.................2nd & 3rd and next years' 1st and 2nd 30th pick..................~same 31th, 32 pick...................the above plus a middle 3rd round this year or the following year's 1st Edited March 30, 2014 by maryland-bills-fan
Ed_Formerly_of_Roch Posted March 30, 2014 Posted March 30, 2014 As far as trade value matching the chart usually the factor is whether it's the buyer or seller pushing for the swap. If it's us calling the other teams we may take a bit less, if say it's the team with pick #20 is calling us wanting to move up, then we can ask for a little more per your chart ,we don't give up the 4th If we're calling them, then we give up the 4th and maybe even a 7th. But over all I do agree that teams follow the chart for the most part.
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