Astro's Value Board - 40 days to go

[3rdand12]

You do realize that both Lawson and Rivers both are among the lowest rated LBs in the league? Neither negate the need for getting a true every down linebacker. Both are simply depth. Getting Rivers in FA changes nothing, his benefits are questionable. We can always hope for a miracle, and have nothing turn into something, but the odds are not good. Luckily he is dirt cheap. And as much as Lawson fills a need, again he is not great at anything. You need a quality all down LB opposite Kiko to have a playoff team. And while Schwartz's defense may not require the versatility of Pettine, he still requires more flexibility than a rigid moribund defense like a Wannie defense would.

I disagree about Lawson. I dont want to do stats and numbers.

I think he might not fit well into Jims D , but i think Lawson did a fine job last year in his first year with a new team and defense.

Rivers is a huge question mark for me and the fact the Bills pronounce him to be 3 down back is as troublesome as C Williams at LG .

Edited March 30, 2014 by 3rdand12

[Astrobot]

I have to disagree on this. The word is versatility. Spikes is a situational only player. He stinks at pass coverage and is a huge liability in any downs that end up being a pass situation. I agree he is killer in run coverage, which we need. But he is very one dimensional. Not knocking his signing, he fills a need, but is a specialist for specific down situations only. We need to develop an ALL AROUND LB to go with Kiko. It makes a flexible defensive scheme vulnerable when you have too many specialists and not enough all around good players. It is too easy for a good OC to catch the defense in the wrong setting otherwise. Spikes, Hughes, Searcy and too many others on the team are specialists. Very good at one thing, but a very big liability if the play ends up not needing the special skills they have. We need versatile players if we are going to have flexible, dynamic defensive schemes, or we will get continually stung with big plays. Just like the other discussion of Skov, even at TE you need versatility. Not only do we need a big body with good hands to catch , we also need a versatile TE who can block well for a run. And we have two great RBs to run if we only give them the help they need to get started.

This ^ ^ ^

Well-said. Versatile is the buzzword in the modern NFL. Don't you think Bill Belicheat knows how to take advantage of Spikes?

[1B4IDie]

I think our draft needs are:

• Playmaker WR (Hogan, Easley, Kaufman, Barden, Elliott are 2015 FAs)
  
• Playmaker TE (Lee Smith, Moeaki and Caussin are '15 FAs)
  
• At least 2 DE (Mario and Hughes are the only guys on depth chart)
  
• ILB that's 3-down, faster than Spikes
  
• ROT Eric Pears, Chris Hairston are '15 FAs, Hairston needs competition
  
• FS Searcy is ’15 FA, Leonhard is FA right now
  
• Trade Down for more players
  

My

Value

Board for Top Rounds:

RD1

- Matthews, Evans, Ebron, or trade down

RD2

- Skov, Morgan

Moses, Jordan

Matthews, Kelvin Benjamin, Donte Moncrief, or Troy Niklas

RD3

- DE (Chris Smith, Marcus Smith, Demarcus Lawrence), OG (Jackson,Dozier), RT Mewhort, S Bucannon

RD4

- DE

Kareem Martin, RB Lache Seastrunk, RT

JaWuan James, QB (McCarron Boyd)

RD5

-

RB Andre Williams,

WR

Brandon Coleman, S (

Loston, Dixon,

Dion Bailey), TE (

Lynch, JoeDon Duncan)

RD6

- TE (Grimble, Blanchflower) RT (Michael Schofield), S ( Sunseri, Lewis, Zimmerman) WR (Ward, TJ Jones, Michael Campanaro)

RD7

- FB/TE Gator Hoskins, FB Jay Prosch

 

I'd love your input. I'm using a new CMD#9 mock that will be released Sunday 3/30

here

.

~Astro

What about Jace Amaro in the second?

 

I doubt Scott Crichton is anywhere on the Bills draft board.

 

The +- on your site is backwards a value pick should be - and a reach should be +.

 

That was you can just minus the value from the pick to see the overall rankings and add the number to the pick to see the overall ranking.

 

It has always been confusing to me and now I finally get it.

[Mark Vader]

How is ILB a priority need? Spikes is the starter, if he gets hurt Kiko would likely move back inside...57% the Defensive downs are played with only one or two LB's...The Bills 1st LB is Kiko, 2nd on the field in Nickel would probably be Spikes at this point...I just don't see ILB depth as a pressing need...

We signed Spikes for only one year, we don't know if he's going to be with us long term.

Drafting an ILB with great potential would give us more security at this position.

Edited March 30, 2014 by Mark Vader

[Astrobot]

What about Jace Amaro in the second?

 

I doubt Scott Crichton is anywhere on the Bills draft board.

 

The +- on your site is backwards a value pick should be - and a reach should be +.

 

That was you can just minus the value from the pick to see the overall rankings and add the number to the pick to see the overall ranking.

 

It has always been confusing to me and now I finally get it.

I don't like Amaro for what the Bills see in a TE. Amaro's almost always lined up in the slot--no deception, he's going out. I also don't like his competition--his conference was comprised of weak defenses. This is required reading if you want to compare TEs. I keep ending up with Troy Niklas. http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46280/349/peshek-te-metrics

 

Two things I like (and Schwartz might like) about Crichton: "powerful first step, impressive initial momentum to attack blockers and bully them backwards like a battering ram". And second, nonstop effort. Dane Brugler has Crichton #23 of his top 50 players.

[1B4IDie]

I don't like Amaro for what the Bills see in a TE. Amaro's almost always lined up in the slot--no deception, he's going out. I also don't like his competition--his conference was comprised of weak defenses. This is required reading if you want to compare TEs. I keep ending up with Troy Niklas. http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46280/349/peshek-te-metrics

 

Two things I like (and Schwartz might like) about Crichton: "powerful first step, impressive initial momentum to attack blockers and bully them backwards like a battering ram". And second, nonstop effort. Dane Brugler has Crichton #23 of his top 50 players.

Gear article.

Don't see anything bad about Jace Amaro. He was in the slot a lot but also inline. The fact that he wasn't lined up outside skew the %s in comparison to the other TEs.

I like Niklas too. I don't think it has to be either or.

If Ebron, ASJ, Amaro, or Niklas are available at #41 the Bills should take one. I like them all at #41 and non at #9 overall.

 

I'd say the ACC is a weak defensive conference. So that is a wash in comparisons.

 

This is damning of Ebron.

 

"- Here’s Ebron’s dirty little secret – his hands just aren’t as good as some make them out to be. He made some nice one-handed grabs, but he also has a 11.43% drop rate which is not something to be overlooked."

 

Just say no at #9.

[Nanker]

Astro, I'd like to see a list of the players that are left after Drafttek's CMD. The latest seems to have about 80% reaches in round 7.

[simpleman]

You'll like tomorrow's CMD, then!

 

You are right. I would be very happy with the new mock. I do not get the selection of Martavis Bryant, WR over Donte Moncrief, WR in the 3^rd. But I admit I have not seen enough of Bryant to see why he would be rated over Moncrief. I really like what I have seen of Moncrief.

[1B4IDie]

 

You are right. I would be very happy with the new mock. I do not get the selection of Martavis Bryant, WR over Donte Moncrief, WR in the 3^rd. But I admit I have not seen enough of Bryant to see why he would be rated over Moncrief. I really like what I have seen of Moncrief.

Martavis Bryant is a great pick.

But that talent that is available at #73 in that mock is a reason why you need to trade back if you can. You got Cyrus Kuanadijo, Bryant, Moncrief, Troy Niklas. Those are all solid pros that can make an impact in 2014.

 

If Watkins and Evans are gone at #9 and OBD gets any offer to trade back with extra picks in the Top 75 of 2014 you need to do it. I hope.

Edited March 31, 2014 by Why So Serious?

[KOKBILLS]

 

Don't see anything bad about Jace Amaro. He was in the slot a lot but also inline.

 

Agreed...

 

Amaro is also 6-5 3/8 - 265....So...While it's 100% true he was not asked to do a lot of in-line blocking in College that does not mean he can't eventually turn into a serviceable all-around NFL TE...Some scouts, amateur and pro, seem to get a little overwhelmed with what a kid did in College when in fact he was only doing what he was told and coached to do...Amaro did what he was told and coached to do pretty well last season considering he had over 100 receptions...Is he going to look like a decent blocker when he almost never does it and the coaches spend less time on refining those skills? Of coarse not...But it's not like he's 6-2-235...He's a BIG kid, he's strong for a TE (28 reps @225), and he's pretty athletic (he had the 4th highest vertical jump and 3rd best broad jump among TE's at the Combine)...And I'm pretty certain in time with decent NFL coaching he'll be passable in the blocking area...Not saying he's ever going to be a mauler...But he should be just fine...And it's already a proven fact he can catch the ball...

[Astrobot]

Astro, I'd like to see a list of the players that are left after Drafttek's CMD. The latest seems to have about 80% reaches in round 7.

I love the idea. let me pitch it to my boss!

 

[John from Riverside]

If we need a DE. And I think we do. I think we should look at Anthony Barr for the DE role. He's big. Powerful. Fast. Plays with a meanstreak. Could be had in a trade down and we get exactly what we need.

 

IMO, he will be the best defensive player in the draft. I know. I'm in the minority here.

 

Mrags.....havent we put enough priority on this defense at this point....we need to bring our offense up to the level of our defensive talent BAD

[1B4IDie]

I love the idea. let me pitch it to my boss!

yes I 2nd or 3rd the idea.

It'd be nice to see a list of Priority Free Agents.

I really don't see anyone else doing that in the mocking world.

[boyst]

I have always wondered why no one simply compiles an aggregate of all the major mocks then simply runs a mock on those mocks.

 

You'll see DT or any site provide a self mock run down. Say DT uses its formula and says Cincinatti would draft TE- John Smith, but OT - Adam Wilson and RB - Winston Jackson remain options.

 

Then you pick one and it changes by each line - sort of like the whole playoff scenario calculator.

 

Sorry to keep the thread off the rails. Just a few thoughts. But it'd be nice to see what happens when we play with QB's going before us, see what it could take to get Mack or Clowney to fall, etc. In the calculator it'd be hard but it'd also be freaking sweet to say "Baltimore would move to 7th and give up a 1st, 2nd, and 5th" and then you choose - Baltimore wants LB Mack, but QB - Luke Thomas and and WR Eric Brown are also possible.

Edited April 3, 2014 by jboyst62

[dave mcbride]

 

Gear article.

Don't see anything bad about Jace Amaro. He was in the slot a lot but also inline. The fact that he wasn't lined up outside skew the %s in comparison to the other TEs.

I like Niklas too. I don't think it has to be either or.

If Ebron, ASJ, Amaro, or Niklas are available at #41 the Bills should take one. I like them all at #41 and non at #9 overall.

 

I'd say the ACC is a weak defensive conference. So that is a wash in comparisons.

 

This is damning of Ebron.

 

"- Here’s Ebron’s dirty little secret – his hands just aren’t as good as some make them out to be. He made some nice one-handed grabs, but he also has a 11.43% drop rate which is not something to be overlooked."

 

Just say no at #9.

Sounds like he's potentially the next Ricky Dudley.

[1B4IDie]

Sounds like he's potentially the next Ricky Dudley.

Except Ricky Dudley was bigger and faster.

[KOKBILLS]

We signed Spikes for only one year, we don't know if he's going to be with us long term.

Drafting an ILB with great potential would give us more security at this position.

 

The Bills are hoping to build a team that can at least contend for a Wild Card spot in 2014...I just don't think security (depth) at ILB is going to be much of Draft priority...Not to say they won't Draft an ILB...Just doubt it will be in the first 4 rounds or so...

[Kirby Jackson]

 

 

The Bills are hoping to build a team that can at least contend for a Wild Card spot in 2014...I just don't think security (depth) at ILB is going to be much of Draft priority...Not to say they won't Draft an ILB...Just doubt it will be in the first 4 rounds or so...

Totally agree and really well said. They are going to finish addressing holes before future needs.

[maryland-bills-fan]

We signed Spikes for only one year, we don't know if he's going to be with us long term.

Drafting an ILB with great potential would give us more security at this position.

,,,,,,,,,,,but having him for this year means that we could take a flyer on a ILB in a later round and give him an evaluation as a NFL player. A recycled small college defensive end type overlooked guy for example. We could develop him for a year and maybe he could become a keeper as a situational guy, starter or depth. If it didn't work out then we would then have another year to draft a higher rater player, trade, or FA to fill that hole. I consider LB and TE as lower round draft picks for this year because of the depth of players on the roster. ROT, can't miss WR, DE, OG and DB rank higher for the first three rounds.

[Canadian Bills Fan]

I'm over Ebron at 9.

 

Give me Niklas at 41!

 

 

CBF