Johnny Manziel thread

[C.Biscuit97]

I don't think the highly touted O-lineman ever perform up to first round standards. You'd think the first tackle taken in the top 10 would be a top 10 player at the position. Or at least top 15. But too many years have been seen where these guys are just "ok" at the NFL level, even with their high draft choice.

 

Lump that together with the fact that Johnny Football got pressured a TON this season. You got a QB, who basically requires a CB spy on him at all times and always makes defenses try to contain instead of penetrate. And Johnny still needed to run 30 yards behind the LOS to make a play? Who do you blame that on?

 

I agree with you about O linemen. too many people assume that O linemen are "safe" picks. But they do bust at a good rate like you mentioned. That said, you are really good in college to get drafted in the top 10. Manziel played behind 2 of those guys. You just can't pretend like that doesn't matter. Also, how many college QBs get a 6'5" wr, probable top 10 pick wr to throw 2 in one of the most QB friendly offenses in the country? Manziel played in a offense that a lot of QBs would have success in.

 

And 1st round QBs bust more than any position.

[FireChan]

 

 

This is shortsighted. There are numerous 1st round tackles now residing in the HOF and others that will be.

 

It can be said of ANY position selected that the odds of him becoming an NFL star are 50/50 at best.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

And I'm saying the odds are "higher" for OT's than other positions besides QB.

 

Edit: Actually, my point is more complicated than that and I'll post it when I have more time.

 

 

 

I agree with you about O linemen. too many people assume that O linemen are "safe" picks. But they do bust at a good rate like you mentioned. That said, you are really good in college to get drafted in the top 10. Manziel played behind 2 of those guys. You just can't pretend like that doesn't matter. Also, how many college QBs get a 6'5" wr, probable top 10 pick wr to throw 2 in one of the most QB friendly offenses in the country? Manziel played in a offense that a lot of QBs would have success in.

 

And 1st round QBs bust more than any position.

 

Are AJ McCarron's O-lineman not declaring for the draft? Because, from just watching the games, I would say they would be better in the NFL.

Edited April 1, 2014 by FireChan

[K-9]

And I'm saying the odds are "higher" for OT's than other positions besides QB.

 

I would need to be convinced of that because my experience tells me otherwise. If you care to do the statistical analysis, by all means have at it. I suggest we need to agree on the barometer as there are varying levels of success ranging from bust to solid starter to All Pro. I predict you'll find the success achieved will be pretty consistent across the board for all positions.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[C.Biscuit97]

And I'm saying the odds are "higher" for OT's than other positions besides QB.

 

Edit: Actually, my point is more complicated than that and I'll post it when I have more time.

 

 

 

Are AJ McCarron's O-lineman not declaring for the draft? Because, from just watching the games, I would say they would be better in the NFL.

 

Trust me, this is why I don't think McCarron will be anything but a backup in the pros. He played behind a NFL o-line. He never faced pressue. Stil ldoesn't mean JF will succeed.

[YoloinOhio]

I agree with you about O linemen. too many people assume that O linemen are "safe" picks. But they do bust at a good rate like you mentioned. That said, you are really good in college to get drafted in the top 10. Manziel played behind 2 of those guys. You just can't pretend like that doesn't matter. Also, how many college QBs get a 6'5" wr, probable top 10 pick wr to throw 2 in one of the most QB friendly offenses in the country? Manziel played in a offense that a lot of QBs would have success in.

 

And 1st round QBs bust more than any position.

Without looking anything up I think this has to do with the fact that OTs are often overdrafted due to their perceived value to a team (also QBs and DBs). Therefore you see a higher bust rate because while a QB, OT or DB might be the 30th best player in the draft, a team is desperate for a franchise QB, LT or lock down corner and go ahead and take one in the top 10 yet they are a project and start right away when they, like many rookies, need time to develop.

[Beerball]

This really sounds like disinformation to me given when you factor in the Vikings dire need for a QB:

 

Mike Zimmer said some ‘flags' came up when Vikings met with Johnny Manziel

 

 

 

Vikings coach: Johnny Manziel brings ‘question marks’

Interesting. Zimmer is either a chip off the old (Parcels) block or he's going overboard with his disinformation campaign. I lean toward him being a chip off the block.

[C.Biscuit97]

Without looking anything up I think this has to do with the fact that OTs are often overdrafted due to their perceived value to a team (also QBs and DBs). Therefore you see a higher bust rate because while a QB, OT or DB might be the 30th best player in the draft, a team is desperate for a franchise QB, LT or lock down corner and go ahead and take one in the top 10 yet they are a project and start right away when they, like many rookies, need time to develop.

 

Good point. Plus, you don't play against the pass rushing talent in college like do every game in the pros.

 

Interesting. Zimmer is either a chip off the old (Parcels) block or he's going overboard with his disinformation campaign. I lean toward him being a chip off the block.

 

Everything before the draft is a lie!

[FireChan]

 

 

 

Trust me, this is why I don't think McCarron will be anything but a backup in the pros. He played behind a NFL o-line. He never faced pressue. Stil ldoesn't mean JF will succeed.

 

I'm not even looking at this through the lens of QB play anymore. I guess I got off topic. Still think 1st round OT's are overrated, especially in the top ten.

Edited April 1, 2014 by FireChan

[C.Biscuit97]

 

 

I'm not even looking at this through the lens of QB play anymore. I guess I got off topic. Still think 1st round OT's are overrated, especially in the top ten.

 

I agree with you. I hate the idea of the Bilsl drafting a OT top 10. You need to draft playmakers in the top 10. OTs can be found later.

[K-9]

Good point. Plus, you don't play against the pass rushing talent in college like do every game in the pros.

 

 

 

Everything before the draft is a lie!

 

Like Buddy said, "We're all tryin' to rob the same train."

 

What amazes me is that so many people fall for the same crap year after year after year. Not just fans, but media and teams as well. And I think a lot of the over-drafting year after year after year is often the result of meddlesome ownership around the league.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[papazoid]

mayock moved manziel to the top of his QB ratings.

 

jaworski rates manziel a 3rd round pick.

 

therefore this is a weak QB class ?

[C.Biscuit97]

mayock moved manziel to the top of his QB ratings.

 

jaworski rates manziel a 3rd round pick.

 

therefore this is a weak QB class ?

 

I knew it was overrated to begin with. And just remember Mayock once said part time college starter Robert Ayers would be the best defensive player in his draft. These guys make a ton of mistakes.

[Bill from NYC]

Trust me, this is why I don't think McCarron will be anything but a backup in the pros. He played behind a NFL o-line. He never faced pressue.

Please trust me on this one CB, the above is not entirely true.

It WAS true in 2012, NO question. In fact, I would call that OL the best I have ever seen in college. The OL in 2013 was good, not spectacular. After 2012 they lost Barret Jones, Chance Warmack and DJ Fluker. It is not possible to replace 3 players like this. Only Steen and Kouandjio remained from 2013, and they were the two worst players on the line in 2012. This must sound far fetched, and of course I am simply a fan posting on a message board, but I watch every game they play, and this is where I mainly focus.

 

In 2013, the Tide was STACKED at skill positions, NOT on the lines. And wait until this fall in terms of skill positions. They have no less that 3 running backs who might be great.

[NoSaint]

 

 

I would need to be convinced of that because my experience tells me otherwise. If you care to do the statistical analysis, by all means have at it. I suggest we need to agree on the barometer as there are varying levels of success ranging from bust to solid starter to All Pro. I predict you'll find the success achieved will be pretty consistent across the board for all positions.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

i feel like ive seen some numbers on it - that because they are considered one of those premium positions, they are prone to being overdrafted (like qbs) so despite going in the top ten, more often than some other positions you are getting less than top ten talent.

[Mr. WEO]

I watched highlights of the game. He had good protection for the most part and I counted 2, and arguably 3, passes where he hit his receiver in stride. And a lot of his game is predicated on designed scrambles. We'll see how that translates to the NFL.

 

Well, like I said, you should watch whole games.....

 

Anyway, JM completed 70% of his passes--the overwhelming majority of them to receivers other than Mike Evans. The comments made that "he just throws jump balls to Evans" are proof of lazy thinking, often repeated. Seeing his accuracy throwing on the run, it's obvious he can find his receivers and read a defense.

 

As for his running, his rushing attempts ("designed scrambles" and simply running on planned passing downs) were less than a third of all plays--and 30% fewer than the year before. In fact, in rushing attempts for FBS QBs, he's only 20th.

[Doc]

Well, like I said, you should watch whole games.....

 

Anyway, JM completed 70% of his passes--the overwhelming majority of them to receivers other than Mike Evans. The comments made that "he just throws jump balls to Evans" are proof of lazy thinking, often repeated. Seeing his accuracy throwing on the run, it's obvious he can find his receivers and read a defense.

 

As for his running, his rushing attempts ("designed scrambles" and simply running on planned passing downs) were less than a third of all plays--and 30% fewer than the year before. In fact, in rushing attempts for FBS QBs, he's only 20th.

Why see the whole game? I saw every completed pass and run by him. But I guess the incompletions would tell me more.

 

Look, the kid has promise, but there's a reason why opinions on him, from people who used to play the and/or get paid to watch all his games, are all over the place. As I've repeatedly said, it would be dumb to waste a first round pick on a guy with no clear consensus, when they barely gave the 1st round QB they drafted last year a chance.

 

If anything, when I watch Manziel, I think more and more that Evans should be the the Bills' pick, since they did a good job addressing defensive needs in FA. He's got size to dwarf/out-muscle most DB's, good enough speed, and great hands. Give EJ a target like that and see what happens.

Edited April 1, 2014 by Doc

[C.Biscuit97]

Please trust me on this one CB, the above is not entirely true.

It WAS true in 2012, NO question. In fact, I would call that OL the best I have ever seen in college. The OL in 2013 was good, not spectacular. After 2012 they lost Barret Jones, Chance Warmack and DJ Fluker. It is not possible to replace 3 players like this. Only Steen and Kouandjio remained from 2013, and they were the two worst players on the line in 2012. This must sound far fetched, and of course I am simply a fan posting on a message board, but I watch every game they play, and this is where I mainly focus.

 

In 2013, the Tide was STACKED at skill positions, NOT on the lines. And wait until this fall in terms of skill positions. They have no less that 3 running backs who might be great.

 

I will definitely defer to your knowledge of the Tide here. Still, it's a pretty good oline, would you not agree? Also side comment. Do you think Kouandijo can be a good NFL RT? He interests me as a later round pick.

[Alphadawg7]

I don't think the highly touted O-lineman ever perform up to first round standards. You'd think the first tackle taken in the top 10 would be a top 10 player at the position. Or at least top 15. But too many years have been seen where these guys are just "ok" at the NFL level, even with their high draft choice.

 

Lump that together with the fact that Johnny Football got pressured a TON this season. You got a QB, who basically requires a CB spy on him at all times and always makes defenses try to contain instead of penetrate. And Johnny still needed to run 30 yards behind the LOS to make a play? Who do you blame that on?

 

This is true for every position taken in the top 10 for one. And two, what do you think is going to happen to Manziel and his small frame when a 260lb LB who runs a 4.5 40 barrels into him multiple times on those run outs? The kid does NOT have the body to play like he did in college at the next level. Manziel's "magic" does not translate to the NFL where the players are bigger, faster, and the defenses are smarter and more complicated. So many times the kid just wings it and throws it up for grabs to have it work out. This kid has high bust potential...he also has a high cieling. But make no mistake about it, the kid is a risky pick and if it were not for Russel Wilson this kid would be grading out in the 2nd or 3rd round IMO because of his size and risk.

 

And none of this takes into consideration the ego, off field concerns, and coachability concerns.

 

I think EJ has just as high of a ceiling and less risk as he doesnt have any of the character concerns. Pass on Johnny, and bring EJ some help at OL, WR, or TE at #9 and again in the 2nd.

[FireChan]

This is true for every position taken in the top 10 for one. And two, what do you think is going to happen to Manziel and his small frame when a 260lb LB who runs a 4.5 40 barrels into him multiple times on those run outs? The kid does NOT have the body to play like he did in college at the next level. Manziel's "magic" does not translate to the NFL where the players are bigger, faster, and the defenses are smarter and more complicated. So many times the kid just wings it and throws it up for grabs to have it work out. This kid has high bust potential...he also has a high cieling. But make no mistake about it, the kid is a risky pick and if it were not for Russel Wilson this kid would be grading out in the 2nd or 3rd round IMO because of his size and risk.

 

And none of this takes into consideration the ego, off field concerns, and coachability concerns.

 

I think EJ has just as high of a ceiling and less risk as he doesnt have any of the character concerns. Pass on Johnny, and bring EJ some help at OL, WR, or TE at #9 and again in the 2nd.

 

So many times the kid just wings it and throws it up for grabs to have it work out.

 

Show me a play he does this that isn't that wild Alabama play that everyone saw. Don't we all moan about how EJ doesn't let his receivers make a play? Didn't Flacco win a Superbowl by doing this?

 

This is true for every position taken in the top 10 for one.

 

I tend to disagree. I haven't yet looked up the numbers, but if my intuition is correct, the top O-linemen in the league do not have as many 1st rounders as other positions.

 

And none of this takes into consideration the ego, off field concerns, and coachability concerns.

 

Did Sumlin not coach Johnny? What did he have to say?

 

And two, what do you think is going to happen to Manziel and his small frame when a 260lb LB who runs a 4.5 40 barrels into him multiple times on those run outs?

 

The same thing that happened to Russell WIlson?

 

But make no mistake about it, the kid is a risky pick and if it were not for Russel Wilson this kid would be grading out in the 2nd or 3rd round IMO because of his size and risk.

 

So the short Superbowl winning second year QB just showed how old fashioned and archaic some of these scouts are? Who cares? That's an indictment on Johnny? To have SB winners create trails for you?

 

I think EJ has just as high of a ceiling and less risk as he doesnt have any of the character concerns. Pass on Johnny, and bring EJ some help at OL, WR, or TE at #9 and again in the 2nd.

 

Does EJ have a higher ceiling than Cam Newton? Probably not. And who just broke all of Cam's records at 19?

[YoloinOhio]

Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheet 21m

Source: Johnny Manziel spotted in New England, set for a visit with the #Patriots tomorrow. Agent @ErikBurkhardt would not confirm.

 

Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheet 11m

Johnny Football’s visit with the #Patriots is NOT an April Fools Joke RT @13thGrader: @RapSheet @nfl @ErikBurkhardt #aprilfools

Edited April 1, 2014 by YoloinOhio