Doc Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Pro Football Focus rates Pears as the second worst OT in the league when it comes to run blocking and also rates the Bills OL as a whole as the 8th worst run blocking team in the league. So who do we believe, Football Outsiders or Pro Football Focus?? Another question I have is how can we relate numbers based on all the games the Bills played to how EJ played when there were so many games he didn't play in? Ideally we would have data on those sacks and pressures for each QB. How do we know how many of the sacks that were due to the EJ holding on to the ball too long when the stats we are relying on include other QB's? Lastly, I don't think that football can be boiled down to simple arithmetic. Stats are useful tools but they have there limits, especially in a situation as fraught with unpredictable variables as is the modern game of professional football. For example, if we are facing 3rd and 10 and no one likely to pick up the first down is open, didn't we draft EJ in part because we want him to extend the play with his feet rather than just throwing the ball away and punting? That increases the risks of a coverage sack or a sack characterized by these numbers as being caused by a QB holding the ball too long. But that is exactly what we want EJ to do, try to rescue a doomed play in a critical situation. And who cares if he gets sacked when the alternative to "holding the ball too long"is punting when it is vital that we move the chains. Desperate times calls for desperate measures. These numbers can't illuminate these critical subtleties. I love the stats as much as anyone but we have to recognize their limits. Good post. The stats can only be taken so far. As Joe Miner said, there were multiple reasons for the failures that were blamed on the QB's. We just signed our new starting LG, address RT in the 3rd round of the Draft. But the best OL in the world doesn't matter if the QB can't get it working between his ears True. But you need to give a QB at least some time to develop. Which is why replacing a guard isn't going to, in and of itself, change the performance of our QB. Our O-line is pretty good. Ask Wood why it's so difficult to play O-line in Buffalo. The OL has good pieces, but I don't know that I'd call it "pretty good." And I'd assume Wood would say "because of the QB." Do you think he would he want EJ, Thad, or Tuel starting, or a rookie QB? Nice read, however the conclusion is incorrect about QB play. (1) what defines a coverage sack vs a blocker not holding up? It's subjective since some one was ultimately beaten to allow the sack. (2) coverage sacks can be the result of a QB not throwing in time and also WRs not getting open/running routes correctly or a poor play design or the o line failing to open passing lanes. Thus, the data provided is simply too superficial to conclude much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nikuman Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 40.6% coverage sacks isn't that surprising considering we had: 1) multiple starting QB's, including multiple rookies 2) multiple injuries to our receiving core 3) an inexperienced receiving core 4) a #1 receiver that can usually get open but doesn't always do so in a traditional manner 5) a rookie OC Exactly! It's easy to blame the QB for holding the ball too long, but what's he supposed to do when his receivers can't get open? Seems to support the argument that we need a true #1 receiver and slide Stevie to the slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BackInDaDay Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 nice work. Bandit, but i have to agree with this.. coverage sacks can be the result of a QB not throwing in time and also WRs not getting open/running routes correctly or a poor play design or the o line failing to open passing lanes. ..because i saw too many plays where our QBs waited on routes that didn't develop on time. there's a reason why we hired a new assistant OC, QB and WR coaches - sloppy execution with little sense of urgency.. fix the schematics and coach up the players.. it isn't Madden.. these guys have to know where they're going and when they have to get there.. they have to be on the same page reading their defenders to chose the right option, if their routes have an option.. after all this gets straightened out, and the QBs can't get the ball - on time - to the right spot, then we can throw out our QBs.. but not until then! Hackett better lead, or get out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
artmalibu Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Thank you for the statistical break down for what we already knew. The FO can make many more upgrades to the roster but without better QB play it will be hard to win 9 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealityCheck Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Exactly! It's easy to blame the QB for holding the ball too long, but what's he supposed to do when his receivers can't get open? Seems to support the argument that we need a true #1 receiver and slide Stevie to the slot. The receivers on this team are not as bad as you think. EJ more times than I can count made bad pre-snap reads and didn't even look at guys that came open. EJ's lack of experience combined with having to focus on physical rehabilitation through out the season really got in the way of his progress. EJ's problems with accuracy and finding soft spots in zones where the term "throwing guys open" really applies, can be corrected as long as he can stay on the field and keep working at it. Coming back from the knee injuries added more variables for him to overcome. The OP did a great job laying it down on the O-line. I feel like the O-line, one way or the other, and EJ are going to take a step forward this year. The plays are there for EJ to make. Experience, film study, good health and another solid draft will do wonders for this team. I also think that after a season of hurry-up power running that the O-line will get it going early and often on most teams. The fact that the team as a whole actually got healthier as the season wore on is the definition of a polar shift. I still can't believe how that happened, but I like it. Go Bills! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Good reading here. Thanks Bandit for getting the thinking process started ! More than one issue with the offense. Continuity was a major factor in my eye. Nice thing is we can already see corrections being made with the staffing . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockinon Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Why do we have to make this so complicated? Here, let me clear up some confusion. We need a right tackle. There see how easy that was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 A few of you brought up some interesting observations that I was planning to make, namely: - Most obviously, that an improvement by the QB should significantly help the pass blocking - How greatly the WR play affects the QB's ability to deliver the ball on time The other take away that I didn't see mentioned was that I believe the run blocking will improve dramatically when the team doesn't rely on the run so darn much. Honestly, to average 4.2 YPC while running the ball as much as Buffalo did all season long, whilst starting 3 different QBs, is very, very impressive IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 A few of you brought up some interesting observations that I was planning to make, namely: - Most obviously, that an improvement by the QB should significantly help the pass blocking - How greatly the WR play affects the QB's ability to deliver the ball on time The other take away that I didn't see mentioned was that I believe the run blocking will improve dramatically when the team doesn't rely on the run so darn much. Honestly, to average 4.2 YPC while running the ball as much as Buffalo did all season long, whilst starting 3 different QBs, is very, very impressive IMO. Agreed, Bandit. Also, the Bills scored enough points to win a few more games than 6. A rookie OC, two rookie QBs (and let's be honest; Tuel had no business being on the roster) and Thad Lewis - all did pretty damn well, if you ask me. No reason to think Hackett and EJ will not improve some. Instead of blaming EJ or the line, I think it's smarter to understand that the sucktitude of this team has been a team effort for all of the past non-playoff seasons. O line needs depth. We need a big, sure-handed, mentally-strong WR. Spiller needs to be more consistent. But most of all - the Bills need to stop giving up so many points. This team sucked last year because of the defense. Not because of sub-par O-line or QB performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sisyphean Bills Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 A few of you brought up some interesting observations that I was planning to make, namely: - Most obviously, that an improvement by the QB should significantly help the pass blocking - How greatly the WR play affects the QB's ability to deliver the ball on time The other take away that I didn't see mentioned was that I believe the run blocking will improve dramatically when the team doesn't rely on the run so darn much. Honestly, to average 4.2 YPC while running the ball as much as Buffalo did all season long, whilst starting 3 different QBs, is very, very impressive IMO. Do you have a breakdown of the Bills opponents' run defenses? The number would be really impressive if they faced, for example, all 10 of the best run defenses in the NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Mostly the same line gave up way more pressure with EJ than they did with Fitz. Fitz is known for his quick reads and release (which gets him into trouble, as he takes some bad risks). EJ, in his rookie year (important), is known for taking too much time in reads, and often times won't throw the ball unless he *sees* a WR is open. So, it makes sense that a good chunk of sacks and QB pressures are on the QB (or hell, maybe the WRs weren't really getting open very well, who knows). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 Do you have a breakdown of the Bills opponents' run defenses? The number would be really impressive if they faced, for example, all 10 of the best run defenses in the NFL. Off the top of my head, I know they ran the ball well against top 11 run defenses (in YPC) in Carolina, Baltimore, Cleveland, Cincinnati (I think there's one other in there but I'm on my mobile right now and cannot look). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 We just signed our new starting LG, address RT in the 3rd round of the Draft. But the best OL in the world doesn't matter if the QB can't get it working between his ears There's not much we can do until we see if EJ grows or not. Not very many QB rookies are all pro in the first year. He's got this year, and probably part of next year to prove he can do it. If not, he'll be replaced. (and likely the coaches as well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sisyphean Bills Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Off the top of my head, I know they ran the ball well against top 11 run defenses (in YPC) in Carolina, Baltimore, Cleveland, Cincinnati (I think there's one other in there but I'm on my mobile right now and cannot look). 8 games against defenses ranking 21 or worse in yards/game. 4 games against 11-20 teams 4 games against 1-10 teams. Or, 10 games against teams in the bottom half, 1 against the 15th ranked, and 5 against top half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 (edited) 8 games against defenses ranking 21 or worse in yards/game. 4 games against 11-20 teams 4 games against 1-10 teams. Or, 10 games against teams in the bottom half, 1 against the 15th ranked, and 5 against top half. Two things: 1) what about yards/carry? Far better indicator than yards/game, which hinges heavily upon whether or not the team is playing with a lead among other factors 2) if you have/had the numbers why ask? Loaded questions do not become you...(j/k) Edited March 18, 2014 by thebandit27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sisyphean Bills Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Two things: 1) what about yards/carry? Far better indicator than yards/game, which hinges heavily upon whether or not the team is playing with a lead among other factors 2) if you have/had the numbers why ask? Loaded questions do not become you...(j/k) I looked it up after I asked. I didn't look up how the *Bills* fared against these teams. If you want to pass this course, Mr. Bandit, you'll do the homework. PS: In a completely unrelated footnote, the Bears run defense really sucked last year. Were they channeling Dave Wannstedt or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Good post. The stats can only be taken so far. As Joe Miner said, there were multiple reasons for the failures that were blamed on the QB's. True. But you need to give a QB at least some time to develop. The OL has good pieces, but I don't know that I'd call it "pretty good." And I'd assume Wood would say "because of the QB." Do you think he would he want EJ, Thad, or Tuel starting, or a rookie QB? Clearly he would choose "none of the above", but he had EJ more than anyone--and when he said this: "Bad, but you show me any offensive line that played good when you're down 21 points in the second quarter," he said. "I'd love to see it." "It's pretty tough," Wood responded. "You let a talented dffensive line tee off on you, play after play, they're going to get home. You have to be able to ... if you're not close, and you gotta do obvious passing downs -- first, second, third down -- they're gonna get home. That's how it generally works." Exactly! It's easy to blame the QB for holding the ball too long, but what's he supposed to do when his receivers can't get open? Seems to support the argument that we need a true #1 receiver and slide Stevie to the slot. nice work. Bandit, but i have to agree with this.. ..because i saw too many plays where our QBs waited on routes that didn't develop on time. there's a reason why we hired a new assistant OC, QB and WR coaches - sloppy execution with little sense of urgency.. fix the schematics and coach up the players.. it isn't Madden.. these guys have to know where they're going and when they have to get there.. they have to be on the same page reading their defenders to chose the right option, if their routes have an option.. after all this gets straightened out, and the QBs can't get the ball - on time - to the right spot, then we can throw out our QBs.. but not until then! Hackett better lead, or get out of the way. EJ was scouted as a guy who couldn't throw to a spot, but had to throw to the receiver as he finds him. This is how he played here too. That doesn't work in the NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malazan Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 The LG position is still not a lock. I say we still draft a Guard in the draft. draft a tackle and move them to guard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dollars 2 donuts Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I just want to give props to this being a great thread. Very insightful, great information and fairly direct and to the point. Nicely done, Bandit, and to the others that added additions links and info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockinon Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Agreed, Bandit. Also, the Bills scored enough points to win a few more games than 6. A rookie OC, two rookie QBs (and let's be honest; Tuel had no business being on the roster) and Thad Lewis - all did pretty damn well, if you ask me. No reason to think Hackett and EJ will not improve some. Instead of blaming EJ or the line, I think it's smarter to understand that the sucktitude of this team has been a team effort for all of the past non-playoff seasons. O line needs depth. We need a big, sure-handed, mentally-strong WR. Spiller needs to be more consistent. But most of all - the Bills need to stop giving up so many points. This team sucked last year because of the defense. Not because of sub-par O-line or QB performance. The team had weaknesses on both sides of the ball. Focusing on only one side is a mistake. I just want to give props to this being a great thread. Very insightful, great information and fairly direct and to the point. Nicely done, Bandit, and to the others that added additions links and info. Agreed. The OP put some thought into this and there's nothing wrong with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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