A Bird's Eye View of the AFCE

[Ronin]

Grabbed this from the Wager thread to start one about comparing how the rest of the AFCE teams are doing relative to us.

 

Spiller Rushing Yards Total Yards TDS

Mario Sacks

SJ Receptions Yards TDs

 

Props:

 

Under 7.5 wins

 

Well, considering that we haven't had more than 7 wins for 9 seasons now under four different coaches, to think that we're going to magically post more can be considered to be overly optimistic.

 

Spiller's not likely to post more than 6 total TDs since he's done that only once in one anomalous season in four, and of those I'd expect all of them to be in games vs. mediocre to bad opponents.

 

Also, fwiw, Spiller logged 43 R/R TDs in 4 seasons at Clemson and added another 8 in returns.

 

In 4 seasons here he's logged 17 R/R TDs (of those over half were in a single season) and only 1 in the return game where he was supposed to shine, just like Goodwin, but hasn't, just like Goodwin.

 

Mario should be evaluated on his overall play, not merely his sack tally. He sucks against the run and if I were GM I'd find the quickest way to free up that money and buy a few other good/solid players with it.

 

Of the AFCE teams, the one that's done the least/poorest in free-agency thus far is us. All three other teams have made significant net upgrades. At best we've remained about the same assuming that Spikes' contributions to the D equal Byrd's. I would say that the net upgrade from our other crud LBs to Spikes is big, but so is the degrade from Byrd to whomever will play FS now, presumably Searcy.

 

Searcy has 7 INTs in 6 seasons college and pro, and of those 4 were in one season. That's an average of 1 INT/season. I don't see how Searcy is going to provide the TOs that Byrd has. I'm sure that a kool-aid-ish explanation follows.

 

Either way, so far all of the other three AFCE teams have outperformed us in free-agency. It doesn't take much to do the math considering that we were in the basement this season. We also play much better rushing teams this coming season than we did this past season when we allowed even the most pedestrian RBs to post career days.

 

So it remains to be seen how well Mario and Spikes and the rest of our front-7 handle that. Granted, much of it was this pour every resource into pass-rush short-sighted scheme of Pettine's, so we'll see if The Schwartz can do better.

 

May the Schwartz be with us!

Edited March 17, 2014 by TaskersGhost

[BillnutinHouston]

Can't say I agree with extrapolating Searcy's future contributions from his past stats when in reality he's been on the bench a fair amount, serving as Byrd's backup.

[Ronin]

Well, he was never a ball-hawk like Byrd was in college either.

 

3 of his 4 INTs in his pre-draft season, as a Jr. I think, were against terrible QBs that never made it to the NFL and on terrible teams. He only had 2 others in 3 seasons there in a conference that, let's face it, wasn't exactly challenging for the offensive powerhouse conference of NCAA football.

 

Meanwhile, he's had 3 seasons here to show us something and he hasn't. I suppose the 4th time's the charm, but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

Also, it's pretty lofty when you imply that he'll fill Byrd's shoes when we haven't had a S in Buffalo play to that level since what, Kelso?

Edited March 17, 2014 by TaskersGhost

[BillsVet]

Marrone's comments about Searcy during the Byrd negotiations while stationed at Indy for the combine were telling. I don't have the video link, but he wasn't complimentary. At this point, the guy who'll line up at one of the safety positions will either be a rookie or Duke Williams/Jonathan Meeks. Either way it'll be a young guy who's untested.

 

It's the Bills' M.O. Strengthen one area at the price of another. And more often than not it happens during a transition to a new defense, as will be the case this year.

[K-9]

 

Mario should be evaluated on his overall play, not merely his sack tally. He sucks against the run and if I were GM I'd find the quickest way to free up that money and buy a few other good/solid players with it.

 

This is simply ridiculous. Do you watch the games? Honestly?

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Spiderweb]

From my eyes, where rhe Bills got gashed the most was run plays where teams went off tackle right at Kyle Williams.Kyle's penetrating ways are feast or famine. Also Kiko was late or over ran the gap. If Spikes or someone else can prove to be effective in the middle, the run D should improve as Kiko in space should be awesome.

Edited March 17, 2014 by Spiderweb

[Ronin]

Marrone's comments about Searcy during the Byrd negotiations while stationed at Indy for the combine were telling. I don't have the video link, but he wasn't complimentary. At this point, the guy who'll line up at one of the safety positions will either be a rookie or Duke Williams/Jonathan Meeks. Either way it'll be a young guy who's untested.

 

It's the Bills' M.O. Strengthen one area at the price of another. And more often than not it happens during a transition to a new defense, as will be the case this year.

 

Again, Searcy's shown nothing, absolutely nothing, in 3 seasons, so your statement has a good likelihood of being the reality here.

 

As to strengthening one area at the price of another, agreed, although I'm not sure that this was an even swap. It could be b/c the MLB position is so critical and for that reason alone. But Spikes is not pass-D specialist, he's better against the run, kinda like London Fletcher was although I'm hesitant to suggest that he is as good as Fletcher was in that role.

 

A whole lot of that is going to come down to the Schwartz's defensive system and how that changes our overall D, which is a certainty, and to what extent the players change (improve/digress) in that same system.

 

It'd be foolish to think that we're going to pile up the sack stats again, but then again, what did that get us? It got us the same-old same-old ultimate result. So if the rushing D is bolstered to the extent that third-rate RBs can't amass 100+ rushing yards against us routinely, then it could be a net positive.

 

Again though, I'll still defer to the notion that all three other AFCE teams are well ahead of us in free-agency thus far and since they were 8-8, 8-8, and 12-4, I'm pretty much expecting that we'll have three winning teams to contend with this forthcoming season. There's absolutely no room in any division for 4 winning teams.

 

Hence another losing season. If the season were to start today, I'd say 4-12 again given the tougher schedule. 1-5 in the East.

Edited March 17, 2014 by TaskersGhost

[Not at the table Karlos]

 

 

This is simply ridiculous. Do you watch the games? Honestly?

 

 

 

GO BILLS!!!

I think this Is Jerry Sullivan. Na cant be Jerry's' more optimistic

[Ronin]

From my eyes, where rhe Bills got gashed the most was run plays where teams went off tackle right at Kyle Williams.Kyle's penetrating ways are feast or famine. Also Kiko was late or over ran the gap. If Spikes or someone else can prove to be effective in the middle, the run D should improve as Kiko in space should be awesome.

 

Well, that was the problem with Pettine's D, it was precisely feast-or-famine as the team put every one of its eggs into the pass D basket. Wise? I don't think so, but hey, what do we know, we're not "experts" like those getting paid the big bucks to post one losing season after the next while justifiably earning the title as the league's most futile team.

 

The Schwartz will rectify that to an extent, but that extent remains to be seen. As of now, all three other AFCE teams are better than we are, by a significant margin.

 

I think this Is Jerry Sullivan. Na cant be Jerry's' more optimistic

 

These comments are nothing but unwanted noise in an otherwise quality thread.

 

But hey, as long as you feel good about yourself.

[dave mcbride]

Mario should be evaluated on his overall play, not merely his sack tally. He sucks against the run and if I were GM I'd find the quickest way to free up that money and buy a few other good/solid players with it.

 

Of the AFCE teams, the one that's done the least/poorest in free-agency thus far is us. All three other teams have made significant net upgrades. At best we've remained about the same assuming that Spikes' contributions to the D equal Byrd's. I would say that the net upgrade from our other crud LBs to Spikes is big, but so is the degrade from Byrd to whomever will play FS now, presumably Searcy.

 

Searcy has 7 INTs in 6 seasons college and pro, and of those 4 were in one season. That's an average of 1 INT/season. I don't see how Searcy is going to provide the TOs that Byrd has. I'm sure that a kool-aid-ish explanation follows.

 

Either way, so far all of the other three AFCE teams have outperformed us in free-agency. It doesn't take much to do the math considering that we were in the basement this season. We also play much better rushing teams this coming season than we did this past season when we allowed even the most pedestrian RBs to post career days.

 

So it remains to be seen how well Mario and Spikes and the rest of our front-7 handle that. Granted, much of it was this pour every resource into pass-rush short-sighted scheme of Pettine's, so we'll see if The Schwartz can do better.

 

May the Schwartz be with us!

 

?? -- The Bills were 12th in the league in points per drive allowed and second in the league in yards per drive allowed. http://www.pro-footb...ms/buf/2013.htm

 

You seem overly focused on the fact that they were 20th in points given up. A lot of that had to do with their weak offense (28th in yards per drive; 31st in time of possession) and terrible special teams (31st in the league). The defense can only control what it can control. It can't control the Bills' offense or its ST.

Edited March 17, 2014 by dave mcbride

[Ronin]

You seem overly focused on the fact that they were 20th in points given up.

 

LMAO

 

Good one!

 

Actually, I'm overly focused on the notion that the following teams, none of which ranked among the top half in the league in rushing, posted the following rushing yards against us:

 

Bengals: 165

Bucs: 165

Jags: 159

Falcons: 151

Steelers: 136

Miami: 120

 

Then of course NE and the Jets with their rag-tag crews of non-superlative RBs averaged 185 yards-per-game RUSHING against us in 4 games.

 

So yeah, I'm looking at silly irrelevant stuff like that. LOL

 

PS ... you won't find more than one RB on all those teams combined, that logged over 1,000 rushing yards last season if my memory serves me correctly. So it's not as if we played against the top RBs in the league.

 

In fact, of the top 16 rushers in the entire league, we faced only one, and he wasn't on any of those teams. So in fact, there wasn't one RB on the aforementioned teams that had more than 860 rushing yards, and that RB was Le'Veon Bell who averaged a paltry 3.5 ypc for the Steelers.

 

By the way, in case you haven't figured it out, you're not going to win many football games by allowing 150 or more rushing yards per game like we did in nearly half of our games while allowing liberal amounts of rushing yards in four others.

Edited March 17, 2014 by TaskersGhost

[1B4IDie]

I see some good posters responding on this troll thread.

 

Don't feed the trolls.

[Ronin]

Also, and just by the way, I blame coaching and the front office, the same coaching and front office that's still there, for the plight of the offense.

 

They made their dumb choice to live or die by Manuel, and die they will once again leaving us wondering who our next coach will be after next season and for the 2016 season as we enter our 17th season of playoff futility, and pass our 20th anniversary of playoff winlessness, in yet another "world class" rebuilding project in Buffalo.

 

It's pretty sad when the best that you can hope for is new ownership and what must come to pass to make that happen.

 

I see some good posters responding on this troll thread.

 

Don't feed the trolls.

 

Whom are you suggesting is trolling?

 

Based on your thread start in another thread, you're the one that seems to think we've done a good job in free agency thus far. Why is beyond me.

 

But here's an exercise for you to conduct, how about putting up how our AFCE rivals have done in free agency and then conducting your rankings based on that. Because from where I and everyone else sits, all three teams have actually improved their teams indisputably.

 

Let's keep in mind that none of them had losing records. You can do the math from there.

Edited March 17, 2014 by TaskersGhost

[MattM]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/03/15/afc-east-free-agency-update/

 

Look at this and tell me that we're the worst in FA in the AFCE. Byrd is really our only loss, year over year, and he only played 2/3rds of a season last year. I'd say we've actually done quite well, myself, although I'll wait to see it on the field before declaring this offseason a success....

[billsfan1959]

Also, and just by the way, I blame coaching and the front office, the same coaching and front office that's still there, for the plight of the offense.

 

They made their dumb choice to live or die by Manuel, and die they will once again leaving us wondering who our next coach will be after next season and for the 2016 season as we enter our 17th season of playoff futility, and pass our 20th anniversary of playoff winlessness, in yet another "world class" rebuilding project in Buffalo.

 

It's pretty sad when the best that you can hope for is new ownership and what must come to pass to make that happen.

 

 

 

Whom are you suggesting is trolling?

 

Based on your thread start in another thread, you're the one that seems to think we've done a good job in free agency thus far. Why is beyond me.

 

But here's an exercise for you to conduct, how about putting up how our AFCE rivals have done in free agency and then conducting your rankings based on that. Because from where I and everyone else sits, all three teams have actually improved their teams indisputably.

 

Let's keep in mind that none of them had losing records. You can do the math from there.

 

Everyone is entitled to their opinion; however, It's never really a good idea to speak for everyone else...as if it is a foregone conclusion that everyone else agrees with you.

[Mark80]

I have to completely disagree with the OP on this. You say that the other teams have "indisputably" had better FA than the Bills but yet you don't point to any single piece of evidence to support that.

 

The Jets haven't done anything except sign Erik Decker. A former #3 WR that now had Geno Smith throwing him the ball instead of Peyton Manning. I wonder how that is going to work out for him? I just don't see what you are seeing here I suppose.

 

The Dolphins severely overpaid for FAs last season and are doing so again this season. This is a good thing to you? They are going to screw their cap situations in the very near future with these signings. Albert and Mitchell are good players, sure, but they are paying a very high price. Getting an old, slow, clearly diminished Cortland Finnegan is not a good thing in my opinion. His antics outweigh his skill at this point in his career. Their real issue remains at the QB slot. Tannehill just isn't that good and they are wasting all this money around him.

 

The Pats are still the cream of the crop in the division and are really the only ones that I consider clearly better than the Bills, no need to discuss their moves.

 

For the Bills, we've addressed a huge need with Spikes, got a very good #3 CB, and some added depth where we needed it on the OL. Rivers will also provide some nice depth as well and potentially another starter. I believe you are forgetting the best part of our off season...a year of development from our extremely young team. Players typically grow leaps and bounds from their first to second years in the league and also from second to third and third to fourth. We have a ton of players that fit into theses groups that should be getting better and more productive year after year. The other teams in our division cannot say that.

 

Finally, can we please see how the draft pans out before we proclaim the Bills the worst team in the division, perhaps?

[ganesh]

 

For the Bills, we've addressed a huge need with Spikes, got a very good #3 CB, and some added depth where we needed it on the OL. Rivers will also provide some nice depth as well and potentially another starter. I believe you are forgetting the best part of our off season...a year of development from our extremely young team. Players typically grow leaps and bounds from their first to second years in the league and also from second to third and third to fourth. We have a ton of players that fit into theses groups that should be getting better and more productive year after year. The other teams in our division cannot say that.

 

 

My only concern is the amount of money they have offered for someone to play as the 4th CB on this team (Robey is already our 3rd CB).

[Mark80]

My only concern is the amount of money they have offered for someone to play as the 4th CB on this team (Robey is already our 3rd CB).

 

I think he may see #3 time over Robey, but even if he does not between injuries, 4 CB sets, and spelling tired guys, I still think it is money well spent and he will be seeing the field a ton this season.