WM’s Post FA Positional Review

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

WM’s Pre-Draft Positional Review: 4/11/14

 

OK, Whaley proved me wrong. We weren't done in free agency. We've made a few acquisitions, gotten more information, and in the last month we have seen a shift in some of the areas I first posted and they've accumulated to a point where I do believe that an update is on order.

 

Part 1: Offense

QB: The most important position in the game is the one that is most in the dark for this team. Last year at this time, the Bills were signing Kevin Kolb to be a veteran to presumably guide whoever the Bills selected in the draft. When the Bills picked EJ Manuel, the consensus I heard was “He has great physical tools, but man, is he raw. I hope that he doesn’t have to go in right away, and can learn under Kolb for a few weeks while he gets ready.” We know how things went from there: Kolb had a mysterious run in with a rubber mat, got his bell permanently rung in preseason and failed the physical last week. As a result, the raw rookie which everyone said wasn’t ready to play consistently was thrown right into the deep end and, shockingly, he didn’t play consistently. We saw flashes of great play in the winning touchdown drive in Week 2 and ripping the vaunted Jets defense in their second meeting. He also put up a pair of absolute stinkers on the road against the Steelers and Bucs and was often injured.

 

I don’t know what to draw yet. The front office and coaching staff seemed to double down on EJ this offseason, bringing in a QB coach to work with him, while leaving Hackett purely to handling the offense as a whole. In retrospect, they probably should have done that last year. Ideally, with an offseason to recuperate, work on his mechanics and get back with working on the chemistry with his receivers come training camp he’s back in the swing of things. On the other hand, he could simply never get his accuracy to a sufficient level, never get the mental speed for the game and get injured again and again. We won’t know until we see it.

 

Thad Lewis came in and showed that he’s a pretty good backup. I don’t want him starting more than he has to, but if it is for a few weeks a year, I’m alright with that. Tuel is maddening, as he can once in a while make a number of good plays but then makes some boneheaded ones.

 

RB and FB: This is still the best part of the offense, even if they far from dominated last year. The team’s commitment to the run left them with the 2^nd best Yards per Game in the league. Yards per attempt was a lot less impressive, but a lot of that can be laid at the feet of the offensive line and injuries.

 

CJ Spiller is still probably the most talented player on the offense. He’s like a shot machine: if you keep plugging away once in a while he takes it to the house. However, he regressed last year when he kept trying to always take it outside. He might get those 30-50 yard runs, but he get a lot that get stopped at the line.

 

Fred Jackson, while aging, still showed that he could punch the ball. He’s good for consistent yards of hard running and is easily the most dependable player at the position. I do think that he’s good for a very solid 1-2 punch for CJ this season, even if their individual numbers suffer for it. But I do have to ask: how many more years does he have in him?

 

Dixon is a very nice, value signing that the Bills picked up from San Fran. For a team which runs as much as the Bills do, I don’t see having a third RB to be superfluous. CJ and Freddy each had periods of injury last year, and the idea that they both go down for overlapping periods is likely enough that extra insurance doesn’t hurt and the fact that he is a reliable special teamer to bolster that front makes this a good signing in my mind.

 

Fullback might be a dying position, but I wouldn’t tell that to Frank “The Tank” Summers. Ok, he doesn’t touch the ball all that often, but at 5’9 and 250 pounds this guy is a beast. When you have to go over a goal line, everyone looks at Fred Jackson but Summers really can just power it in. He doesn’t have too bad a set of hands either, and he has been a surprising receiving threat. With his size, if he gets a head of steam in open space he’s practically a linebacker. And that is, of course, along with the typical unglamorous task of acting as a lane clearer for the others and blocking duty. He might not have his name on the stat sheet too often but for a minimal contract I’m thrilled to have him.

 

Offensive Line: I’ll sum it up in four words: I’m still not sold.

 

Fitz was able to make them look good with a smart head and quick passes. Last year, with a new scheme and a rookie QB, the O-line didn’t look nearly as solid. Some of that is EJ holding on for too long. Some of it was that some teams decided to challenge EJ to beat them with the pass. Some of it is the fact that the Bills replaces an All-Pro guard with a tire fire and one of the worst guards in the game.

 

The honest truth is that I’m not sure that they are all that better after free agency. While Chris Williams graded as slightly better than Legursky overall, it really was that: only slightly better. There are a few bright spots in it though. Williams got his PFF grading playing against the 1^st , 5^th and 6^th ranked defenses twice a year and even then his run blocking was significantly higher than his pass blocking. With Marrone coaching, and between two very good players (Glenn and Wood) he really only has to be average. One thing does keep nagging at me. The year that he was drafted in the first round was one where Marrone was the OC for the Saints, and after he was signed C. Williams mentioned how important Marrone's presence was in his choice to sign. I know that people have accused the Bills of trying to be more clever than they are...but really, the same could be said about the acquisition of Jerry Hughes (more on that later) and so far that has worked out well. It's a question mark, but even average play would be a welcome relief.

 

Left Tackle and Center are being filled by a very solid Cordy Glenn and Eric Wood. I don’t know if they are top 10, but I like them and they are repeatedly solid. Glenn keeps proving that we should ignore Kiper because he is a very steady LT. Woods finally put together a full season last year and has been brought in the long haul. Urbik is unspectacular but decent.

 

Which brings us to RT. Pears had one of his worst seasons in a while last year. While he might not have been the worst player on the line, that’s not by a huge margin. There is still a big, big hole there. There is a possibility of Chris Hairston returning from injury and challenging him for the spot, but that’s an awful lot to assume when your QB has a history of injury.

 

Long story short, there are still two very big question marks on the starters for the line, never mind the depth. People keep criticizing the idea of taking one of the premier tackles at number 9, but if they are a blue chip, immediately ready to start, elite tackle to go in on the right side I wouldn’t be losing any sleep. Even if not there, I wouldn’t be shocked if someone was taken in the first three rounds to push Hairston and Pears, along with another depth pick for guard. I think they are far from done building here. At least, I hope.

 

Tight End: This is a position that has been neglected for some time. As other people have pointed out, a lot of the Bills draft picks here have been washouts. Chandler was resigned to a resounding chorus of “Meh” from the fans. He’s an average TE at best and, sadly, he’s the surest thing we’ve got. He has nice body size as a red zone target and is an alright blocker, but he doesn’t have great hands/chemistry with EJ, and where you throw him the ball is pretty much exactly where he is going to be stopped.

 

Lee Smith and Mike Cassauin are there as blockers, but they are hardly dynamic threats on offense. We barely saw anything from Chris Gragg last year so it’s hard to make a judgement on him, but we didn’t see a lot when we put him in.

 

I really, really wish what we had in Moeaki. He’s got great size, and looks like he could be a great hybrid back…if only he wasn’t getting constantly injured.

 

Summing up, Tight End seems to be a prime candidate for upgrade during the draft. EJ could really use a dynamic receiving target to help him, and recent young QB’s have had success when getting one at tight end. (Coby Fleener for Andrew Luck and Zach Ertz for Nick Foles). To that end, Eric Ebron is on my wish list, as is Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Troy Niklas. Even if Moeaki winds up being a dud, hopefully at least two solid TE’s emerge from that group.

 

Wide Receiver: I don’t believe in the idea of a pure “#1 receiver”. Wes Welker isn’t that prototypical model and he is a threat every time that he sets out on the field. That said, the Bills have been looking for a “open even when he’s covered” guy. They may just have him.

 

While I am doing my best to not be a homer but I really like the Mike Williams acquisition. For context, if I was told that the Bills has used their 6th round pick to get a receiver that was 6'1-6'2, and had 4.4-4.5 speed, and had a great vertical jump and "played bigger than their size" I would have asked "How did Sammy Watkins fall to the 6th round?"

 

I'll let that sink in for a moment. Mike Williams has the measurables and style that sounds strikingly close to Sammy Watkins. He has four years of league experience. From the highlights that I have seen (and they are admittedly his best work) they show a guy who has repeated won jump balls and knows how to position his body in ways that let him make moves on the ball for deep catches that likely would have been interceptions for 99% of other players. Even more important is the fact that, while Freeman was his QB, a lot of the highlights I see are passes that are high or late, and him making a big play on them. High and late passes are a knock on EJ I won't deny, so having someone who can still make plays on those is a plus in my book.

 

With that, I think TJ Graham is going to have to fight very hard to keep his job. I know he’s our favorite whipping boy, and he still has time to pull things together, but the fact of the matter is that in two years he hasn't shown us a lot. What he has shown is that he had run deep routes very quickly, and there is a place for that when you have someone who can throw in deep like EJ. But what his skillset can accomplish is already satisfied by Goodwin. Graham might be a hair faster, but Goodwin has great hands and more importantly, knows how to work a cornerback. A case study here is the second game against the Jets where Goodwin worked man to man on Cromartie, the guy who was supposed to justify Revis’ trade. Due to his speed, Goodwin was given a cushion early. Running short routes, he routinely managed to get 6-8 yards a catch and keep the chains moving. In the second half, when Cromartie stopped using the cushion and with a single deep safety, Goodwin beat the contact at the line and burned him for a deep touchdown.

 

Woods might not be a game breaker, but he has great chemistry with EJ and seems to get ignored on underneath passes for 10-15 yards. He’s probably best as a slot receiver, but third downs are a stat of their own.

 

And then, we get to Stevie: he’s probably one of the most polarized players on this board. Half of us seem to want to trade him at the drop of a hat (at least Tim Graham seems to think that way, considering his offseason reporting). Stevie is hard to explain considering his unique style. He can play against top corners (the Revis rivalry is a particularly memorable example) but he does disappear for stretches and has a reputation. He’s shifty, nimble and fun to watch, but I don’t think I can call him a star.

 

What I like, so far, with the WR corps is that while there isn't a single gamebreaking star, there is a solid depth of very good players. Williams could possibly beat out Stevie in a competition...but the point is moot. Either one is likely better than the #2 CB of most teams. I easily see them both being put on the outside and force teams to pick their poison. Woods can be a very reliable #2, but he is best as a Stevie replacement in the slot. Goodwin is great at taking the top off a defense, and I expect to see him coming in as a deep threat if defenses start throwing a single deep safety look. To be honest, the idea of a three/four WR set of him and Williams on the outside, and Steve and/or Woods in the slot has me salivating. While I would love a pick like Mike Evans, I don't see him getting past Tampa, and I think the Bills now could do without.

 

Overview: Right now, the offense looks incomplete. That isn’t a doom and gloom diagnosis, and they do have time to get on track with the draft, but I think it’s fair to say that, right now, overall, the Bills look like a below average offense. That isn’t to say that that ends the season. Right now, the Bills look very similar to their offense last year. Their ranking was 19^th overall then. There was another team that had a similar offensive ranking at 18^th overall by the name of the Seahawks, last year’s Super Bowl champions. If the Bills manage to get some improvements in the draft, obtain some consistency on QB play and have a strong defense, there is a chance they could go far.

 

Of course, those are some pretty big ifs.

 

Defense

 

Alright, let’s address the elephant in the room right now. Mike Pettine has left the team and has been replaced by Jim Schwartz, formerly the DC of the Titans and coming of a Head Coach gig with the Detroit Lions. While Marrone has stated that he wants to keep the defense from last year, looking over some of the acquisitions in free agency and listening to the recent interview by Whaley makes me think that some change is certain. The real question to ask is: is this a bad thing?

 

I think Mike Pettine did a good job last year. He took a squad which was in the bottom third of the league a year before and made them into a top 10 unit in yards allowed, with eye popping sacks and interceptions and turned in a year of very good pass defense. It was an exciting system, and I certainly think that he was working with the handicap of having his secondary hobbled at the start and with an offense that was inconsistent. That said, while I admire Pettine and think he will be formidable as HC of the Browns, that doesn’t mean that I can’t critique his work. The Bills might have had an exciting defense, but while they ranked 10^th in yards allowed, they ranked 14^th in third down conversions allowed, 20^th in points allowed, and 28^th in yards allowed against the run.

 

Pettine’s multiple defense did well against the pass, where it relied on a number of different formations, exotic blitzes and misdirection. None of those things particularly helps against power running. Even against teams that didn’t have big name running backs, they looked like stars. No where was this more obvious than in the last game of the season. With no major injuries (though Dareus was benched for the first half) and plenty of time in the system, Blout absolutely gashed the Bills and the Patriots put up an embarrassing 200+ yards on the Bills.

 

Schwartz’s system looks like it is going to be more rigid that Pettine’s, and closer to a 4-3. The good news is that while Pettine’s system was technically a 3-4 as a base, it typically had Mario rushing on almost every down, typically in a two point stance. When the Bills went into a nickel, they switched to a 4-2-5.

 

Now, one of Schwartz’s first interviews as the DC of the Bills had him distance himself from the Wide 9. However, looking at some of the FA acquisitions, and things that Whaley has said makes me think that even if the Bills don’t adopt a pure Wide 9, there will certainly be elements in it. When I first heard about Wide 9, I absolutely loathed the idea of seeing anything resembling it in Buffalo. Now…well, let’s take a closer look.

 

Front Seven

 

Defensive Line

In some ways, this is easy to guess. It’s hard to argue with success, and three defensive linemen making the Pro Bowl is a pretty good indicator of success. I have a feeling that no matter what, Dareus, Kyle Williams and Mario Williams will all be lining up together. We’re talking about three players who together combined as many sacks as one team and they are an utter force to be reckoned with.

 

The real question is, “Who is going to be the second Defensive End?” Last year it was Alan Branch, who did a rather solid job at an unglamorous position and was rewarded with a contract extension before Pettine left. Branch, while an excellent fit for Pettine’s multiple scheme, seems like an odd man out in Schwartz’s schemes. That leaves two players from last year who played at left defensive end: Corbin Bryant (with a forgettable 14 tackles and 1 sack in 15 games) and Jerry Hughes, the pass rushing specialist who finished out the year with ten sacks, but really doesn’t have the mass to be a traditional every down 4-3 defensive end. Also thrown into the mix is Manny Lawson, who apparently will be acting as a “hybrid” DE/OLB. The Bills recently added Wynn, but for reasons explained in a moment, I wouldn't be shocked if he is confined to rushing downs.

 

I kept stewing on how this might turn out until I saw a comment on Buffalo Rumblings today that asked a simple question: could Schwartz be happy with Hughes as a 3 down (or maybe 2 down) player if they? At first I was dismissive, but as I thought about it the less crazy it sounded in my head and with some help (props to Grif from Buffalo Rumblings) I got a quick crash course in the Wide 9 and how it might work for the Bills.

 

http://forgedinbuffa...wide-9-defense/

 

The article points out the fact that a lot of the players in the system who have thrived at DE have a build very similar to Hughes. Dareus is also extremely versatile, and can play both 1 gap or two, and can adjust his position on the line depending on the situation so I can easily see those two grouped together. Mario and Kyle Williams are fine doing exactly what they were doing: Kyle playing 3 technique while Mario acts as a pass rushing specialist. We know that they are brutally effective at that position. If we include Hughes, that makes a D-line of starters who combined for over 41 sacks last season. That puts our front four with a sack total that puts them at the league TEAM average. That’s not just good, that’s terrifying. Not just that, but I suspect we could get Blatnick back on the practice squad for depth and with Alan Branch, Stefan Charles and Corbin Bryant for depth inside and I can see Lawson and Wynn rotating in to keep Hughes fresh on run downs. The Bills defensive line looks incredibly talented AND deep.

 

Of course, using Wide 9 principles, even on a staggered line, has a weakness: by spacing out your D-line for improved pass rush, there are wider holes for the run game to exploit. With a team that has, for years now, been awful at defending the run, why would they even bother experimenting? You would need to have an incredible set of run-stopping linebackers.

 

Linebackers

 

As a person, I do not think that Brandon Spikes is someone I would like to get a beer with. He was a locker room disruption that made Bill Belicheck decide to cut off his nose to spite his face by putting Spikes on IR, even when his run defense was hemorrhaging. Spikes has a history of questionable twitter posts, cheap hits and all around dickery. That said, the man is a goddamn genius as a run stuffing linebacker.

 

Going back to the Wide 9 article, here is the description of what an ideal MLB should be:

In Schwartz’ 4-3 front, the middle linebacker is essentially a two-gapping nose tackle. He’s responsible for both “A” gaps on the majority of snaps, and must be powerful enough to take on interior blockers, with the strength and technique necessary to shed those blockers and make plays.

 

While an emphasis is placed on athleticism and range in most middle linebackers, this “Mike’s” primary responsibility is defending the run, while worrying about defending the pass second.

 

I don’t think that I can imagine a better fit for Spikes. Sure, he may be a liability in coverage, but in this scheme the impact of that is minimized. I wouldn’t want to see Spikes doing anything but running directly at the line of scrimmage each down, thirsty for blood. I like that he is in a one year “Show Me” deal. He has equally as much to lose as he does to gain: if he shows up, shuts up, and excels in a situation that seems almost tailor made for him he gets a big pay day. If he clowns around, pisses people off and pisses away what looks like an incredible chance he may never get another like it. I expect him to be motivated.

 

As for “Sam” Linebacker, I still think that it’s going to be Manny Lawson lining up on most downs, even with Whaley trying to assure people that Keith Rivers is a starting three down player. Rivers…look, I’m willing to see what the guy can do, but all evidence seems to point that he’s run thumper. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing. If the intent is to help counteract wider running lanes, that’s alright, but Lawson seems to be a very well rounded SAM. He is great at setting the edge on runs, and while he’s not a great pass rusher he is decent in coverage. Lawson may put his hand in the dirt a few times, but he really seems like the best player for this spot that we have and it would be a pity to put him into a rotation for some place where he’s not as good while giving those snaps to an inferior player.

 

And of course, the best for last: Kiko Alonso. He was going to be first, but Kiko Alonso showed up at my house, hit me so hard I saw the curvature of the Earth and then disappeared in a puff of smoke. True story. #LegendofKiko.

 

What is there to say that hasn’t been said a million times? I loved watching Kiko last year and he’s one of my favorite players. He was an absolute force for the month of September, but I do think that he undeniably trailed off as the year went on, and I think it cost him (unfairly) the title of Defensive Rookie of the Year. I love the man, but I don’t think that he is suited to be running directly at Offensive Guards all day. Often, when making tackles on RB’s, he would be dragged back a few precious yards. The man scrapped at a position that he wasn’t intended to play at, as a rookie and still turned in one of the best performances on the team but I am happy to see him at somewhere other than MLB. The man was drafted to be a Weakside Linebacker, and I think that it is there that he will truly shine. Kiko has phenomenal ball instincts, knows how to read a QB’s eyes. Moving into a more natural position, with a great deal of talent surrounding him, I would not be shocked if he gets his first Pro Bowl season this year (which, incidentally, was another snub).

 

Front Seven Summary: I’m not going to say that it won’t take some clever scheming, but I think that right now the Bills could have a truly frightening front seven. While I do think that it will take a clever DC to maximize their strengths and minimize their weaknesses depending on the situation, Schwartz seems to be up to the task. He has done his best work with a talented Defensive Line, and he has that in abundance. With Kiko’s emergence, Lawson being a solid player and bringing in Spikes, the D-line might actually get the backing they have sorely lacked in past seasons. I can see taking a developmental player in the draft, and getting some depth on UDFA and the waiver wire, but I would be shocked if a high draft pick arrives

 

Defensive Backs

 

Safety

 

OK, I’m going to mention the elephant in the room and move on: the Bills have a hole at safety caused by the departure of Jairus Byrd. I wish they had kept him. I don’t necessarily think that the money he got in New Orleans (and likely could have gotten elsewere) quite matches up with his skill level. But I’m not here for another ten rounds on that subject, so I’ll be sticking with who we still have.

 

Aaron Williams picked just about the best time and place to suddenly find his groove, and it has led to a payday. While pretty much everybody (myself included) was thinking that he was a bust, the move to safety worked out pretty well for him. He’s always had the size and athleticism, and as a safety his speed and catching ability really impressed. Even when he was shanghaied back as a cornerback it appeared that new DB coach Donnie Henderson helped, and he looked better than he had in previous seasons.

 

The nice thing about AW is his versatility. While paired with Byrd, he played Strong Safety, which has him closer to the line of scrimmage and helping with run defense. When Byrd was out, he played Free Safety. I think that he could play either role depending on who else is back there to help him.

 

Sadly, that’s a huge question mark. Marrone went on record that Corey Graham is in the mix, but that he is first in contention as a Nickel Corner. I'm kind of torn. From what I have heard about Graham, his biggest knocks are that he doesn't have elite speed, but he has very good ball skills. Combined with his larger size, that sounds like Jairus Byrd 2.0. My only hesitation is what that does to CB depth.

 

 

 

Cornerback

 

I can’t believe I’m saying this: I like the Bills’ depth at cornerback...if they are committed to keep Graham here. This has been a problem for years, whether it being that a pick didn’t rise to the occasion, or they were lost in free agency, or that players just got too old.

 

I like the Bills’ depth. I don’t know if any of them are Pro Bowl candidates, but when you have four players who range from “Good, and will likely get better” (Gilmore) to “Good, solid, but not likely to push for the #1 slot” (Graham and McKelvin) with “Good situationally” (Robey) you are pretty well off.

 

Last year is hard to gauge for Gilmore due to the injury. Of note is the fact that it was his hand that was hurt, when one of his greatest strengths is his ability to jam receivers at the line. Gilmore is at his best when he can be in physical one-on-one man coverage, so losing the ability to use one hand while playing is a significant handicap. As such, it’s hard for me to evaluate his play from last year, but I do think that he is good now, and has potential to be great.

 

Even more than Aaron Williams, it was Leodis McKelvin who (pleasantly) shocked me last season. I had consigned the man to be a special teams ace, but with Gilmore and hurting unit, McKelvin was called to be the #1 CB early in the year and he was picked on early and often. To my surprise, he did a damn good job. I don’t know about living to a 1^st round pick, but he was a steady veteran presence, and seemed to turn a corner. I don’t think he’s better than Gilmore, but I am happy to have the man on the team.

 

I have a friend who is a Raven’s fan, and when I told him that the Bills had snagged Corey Graham his response was along the lines of “Damn, we wanted him back. You’d have to take Brady’s head off for us to be even.” To me, that’s a pretty good endorsement. Graham’s story is a nice one, and it’s great to hear of a Buffalo native coming come and living a childhood dream. While I doubt that he is going to push Gilmore out of his starting job, from what I hear from my friend and a lot of commentators is that Graham is a solid nickel and backup #2 along with being a great guy to have on special teams. With a very reasonable contract, I can’t think about anything to quibble about, especially if he winds up a starting safety. My only quibble is that if such a move occurs, there really isn't a solid option to back up Stephon Gilmore or McKelvin if one of them goes down to injury. Considering last season, that sounds like a legitimate concern.

 

Of course, there is another NB who can't be ignored. Nickell Robey gets better the closer he gets to the quarterback. When he’s blitzing he’s a lethal threat. When he covers short, speedy Welker-mold receivers, he’s rather good. That said, there is no way in hell I would ever want him playing outside. While I hate to knock his height (and I really do) when someone has 8 inches on you, that's a sizeable advantage

 

Ron Brooks is a bit of a disappointment, but as depth...well, we'll see how that gets shored up. I can see him being leery during the draft. Another DB might knock him off. Then again, he might be on the list of people to convert to safety.

 

Defense Overview: This side of the field looks a lot better than the offense. While I do think that some careful scheming is necessary, the only big hole I see right now is that the team needs a starting caliber safety, or someone to shore up CB depth if they decide to shift Graham over. They have a number of options as to how best to do so, and if the defense gets a Day 2 pick in the draft, I would want to see it spent there. While I don’t think that there is anyone I would want to fill the safety hole at #9, rounds 2 and 3 look like realistic options to make one of the most complete defenses in the league.

Edited April 11, 2014 by Whitewalker Merriman

[uncle flap]

Good stuff man. Hard to argue anything here without nit picking. Add some pics/video and you got yourself your own blog!

[chris heff]

Yup

[Big C]

It is nitpicking, but I will point out that Dixon is not the one that often spelled Gore. Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James were over him on the depth chart and Dixon was used mostly for short yardage and special teams. That being said, Dixon is great at both and I like the signing a lot.

 

Also, I would say that Urbik quietly had a good year last year. I think the line is 3/5 solid - Glenn is a rising start LT - but we clearly have issues at LG and RT. I agree with your assessment of Williams and it is important to note the division he is coming from. It is a bit of a puzzling signing when seemingly there was better talent out there, but we'll have to trust Marrone & Co. for now. I'd rather them not draft RT at pick 9, but I think if the BPA is a tackle, let's do it. I doubt Robinson or Matthews fall to us and I'm not sold on Lewan (he wouldn't be BPA at 9 regardless).

 

QB is the main concern and it will ultimately determine our fate. I hope EJ is ready to step up, because overall I think the roster is ready to win now.

[Clutchwarfare]

This is a great post and I enjoyed reading this much more than reading the hacks on ESPN, Fox Sports and Local Media. Thanks for putting in the time on this!

[ganesh]

The biggest problem with our Running Game is Red Zone offense. The RBs have simply not been able to punch it in. CJ had 2 Rushing TDs and Jackson had 9. Spiller and Jackson combined for ONE receiving TD during the entire season.

 

Craig Urbiks game fell off the cliff after 2012 and was responsible for some of the pass protection issues on the right side.

Edited March 17, 2014 by ganesh

[fansince88]

For a professional kool-aid drinker that was great! But seriously enjoyed a good read. Looking foward to your Defense breakdown. Bring it!

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

Thanks guys! I'll try to have Defense and Special Teams up tonight.

 

Good stuff man. Hard to argue anything here without nit picking. Add some pics/video and you got yourself your own blog!

 

At the very least, it would match with Bleacher Report...which is where I have to go for my fix for the next to months.

 

It is nitpicking, but I will point out that Dixon is not the one that often spelled Gore. Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James were over him on the depth chart and Dixon was used mostly for short yardage and special teams. That being said, Dixon is great at both and I like the signing a lot.

 

Also, I would say that Urbik quietly had a good year last year. I think the line is 3/5 solid - Glenn is a rising start LT - but we clearly have issues at LG and RT. I agree with your assessment of Williams and it is important to note the division he is coming from. It is a bit of a puzzling signing when seemingly there was better talent out there, but we'll have to trust Marrone & Co. for now. I'd rather them not draft RT at pick 9, but I think if the BPA is a tackle, let's do it. I doubt Robinson or Matthews fall to us and I'm not sold on Lewan (he wouldn't be BPA at 9 regardless).

 

QB is the main concern and it will ultimately determine our fate. I hope EJ is ready to step up, because overall I think the roster is ready to win now.

 

Thanks for pointing that out. I didn't watch a ton of the Niners last season, but yeah, as a third back and special teamer, I think Dixon is a great fit at a reasonable price.

 

As for Williams, one thing that sticks out for me is that picture of him and Marrone looking out on the field. Williams would later say that Marrone was a big part of him coming to Buffalo. Marone also would have been the Saints OC the year he was drafted, so I wonder if Marrone had scouted him at that time.

 

I'm not sold, but a lot of people were once sure about Williams, and I'm willing to see what Marrone can do.

 

As for the tackle situtation, I agree with you 100%. Matthews and Robinson are being talked up like two of the best Tackles to come out in years.At 9 (no trade ups) it's hard to ignore a BPA that upgrades a position which has to get upgraded. Lewan...not so much.

 

The biggest problem with our Running Game is Red Zone offense. The RBs have simply not been able to punch it in. CJ had 2 Rushing TDs and Jackson had 9. Spiller and Jackson combined for ONE receiving TD during the entire season.

 

Craig Urbiks game fell off the cliff after 2012 and was responsible for some of the pass protection issues on the right side.

 

It's interesting seeing two people with very different opinions on Urbik on on thread. Joe B's grades had him as middle of the team rankings, around Chandler, and that seemed to fit my impression too.

 

I do agree on the Red Zone running. It was infuriating at times watching the Bills jam up suddenly. I do remember Summers doing some hard running, and hopefully Dixon can chime in there as well.

Edited March 17, 2014 by Whitewalker Merriman

[BillnutinHouston]

Nice write up but when you refer to Levitre as an All-Pro guard, it reads like revisionist history.

[simpleman]

Hard to disagree with what you said. You balanced fan boy optimism with realistic caution without sounding like a Koolaide drinker. Thanks you sharing your thoughts

[BillsFanM.D.]

 

Offensive Line:

 

Some of it is the fact that the Bills replaced an All-Pro guard with a tire fire .....

 

 

Great line.

[bowery4]

Nice post. If you're on rumblings, you could post it there too. I think you'd get some nice responses too. I'm not sold on Dixon yet but we'll see. I personally would like to see an all offencesive draft and good ILB

.Cheers

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

Nice post. If you're on rumblings, you could post it there too. I think you'd get some nice responses too. I'm not sold on Dixon yet but we'll see. I personally would like to see an all offencesive draft and good ILB

.Cheers

 

i am, and i'm hoping to post when its all out. this way, I can do it piecemeal and get constructive criticism and debate to make it stronger.

[Big C]

Nice post. If you're on rumblings, you could post it there too. I think you'd get some nice responses too. I'm not sold on Dixon yet but we'll see. I personally would like to see an all offencesive draft and good ILB

.Cheers

 

Dixon is just a solid situational back and an excellent special teamer.

[HamSandwhich]

Excellent post! I would hope that, after last year, we could carve out some special plays for Spiller. Gotta get him into some space, Hackett needs to swallow his pride and create some plays specifically for that type of back. To me, it looked like they were trying to fit a square peg in a circle hole. Some of the issues can be attributed to Spiller not making one cut and running, but we knew he was that type of back. Lets get some more screen plays in there and watch the magic unfold.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

_{Supposedly the Bills are excited about the two late seaso npickups at guard JJ Uglia and someone else, can't recall whom? So if they are even half correct with them two, maybe guard isn't quite so bad, though still could use a mid round draft pick for future years.}

 

_{I do think Chandler is better than average . Personally I 'd like them to go after Evens with the 1st round pick}

[RyanC883]

_{Supposedly the Bills are excited about the two late seaso npickups at guard JJ Uglia and someone else, can't recall whom? So if they are even half correct with them two, maybe guard isn't quite so bad, though still could use a mid round draft pick for future years.}

 

_{I do think Chandler is better than average . Personally I 'd like them to go after Evens with the 1st round pick}

 

Evans in the 1st, and Seferian-Jenkins or Niklas in the 2nd will give EJ some nice targets, and should help in the Red Zone as well. Would also like to see a big RB in the middle rounds, Williams from BC would be nice.

[Ronin]

Excellent post! I would hope that, after last year, we could carve out some special plays for Spiller. Gotta get him into some space, Hackett needs to swallow his pride and create some plays specifically for that type of back. To me, it looked like they were trying to fit a square peg in a circle hole. Some of the issues can be attributed to Spiller not making one cut and running, but we knew he was that type of back. Lets get some more screen plays in there and watch the magic unfold.

 

He had plenty of outside plays and still didn't put up.

 

I think it's time we all ask ourselves whether or not his 2012 season was anomalous. I definitely think it was.

 

He wasn't a great rusher at Clemson, barely eclipsing 1,000 yards only once and then only as the direct result of getting an extra conference game in the ACC CG against a horridly weak GA Tech team.

 

I also love this "in space" ditty. Give any player "in space" and they're going to get you a lot more than they would while being covered. Therein lies the big "secret" to this analysis.

 

Coming into 2012 teams pretty much wrote off Spiller as much more than a role-playing RB and he came out and surprised everyone, primarilly in his first two games with diminishing returns after that. Consider, he had half (3) of his TD total in those first two games, 3 TDs total in the last 14 once teams started to take him a little more seriously.

 

I'm willing to grant that he's among the more enigmatic RBs out there, but having said that, he's a feast or famine type as the original post says. I mean who can afford to play a guy hoping that every third or fourth game he breaks a long run, which usually doesn't even go for a TD?

 

As to this "in space" thing, one thing that gets overlooked is the speed of defensive players in the NFL. Ensuring that a player gets the ball "in space" is the goal of every play. It's never the goal to try to throw the ball to a player that's double or triple covered, or to run right at the strong side of a D unless your OL is bigger, stronger, and faster than the DL on that side. It's always the goal to hit a receiver that's wide open or give the ball to a RB that has plenty of green to look at.

 

Having said that, what does it say for a player that's only effective "in space?"

 

To me it says that he's a role player and like the original post says, akin to a slot machine whereby the hope is that the payoff will be worth the wait, but the fact is that the house is still the ultimate winner with players like that, and if those "payoffs" come against weaker teams and/or in blowout losses where opponents are more prone to allowing us to run to our heart's content, it means little.

 

The Bills are 2-7 when Spiller rushes for 100 or more yards in the '13 and '12 seasons.

 

They're 3-4 when Spiller scores a rushing TD in the '13 and '12 seasons.

 

With a one-game overlap, those wins were against ...

 

2-14 KC in '12

5-11 Arizona in '12

2-14 Jax in '12

 

and against the 12-4 Panthers this season in a game that was arguably Manuel's best.

 

Even then, of Spiller's 103 yard, one long run of 46 yards from the Bills' 20 on the first play of a drive in the 4th Quarter was nearly half of that with a relatively insignificant performance otherwise in that game. The result of that drive was a FG.

 

So shouldn't the question be how instrumental Spiller is in helping the team win critical games, not merely beat up on the few teams that are worse than we are? Should we even need Spiller at all to beat teams that are 2-14 or 5-11? If so, what a sad commentary that is.

 

I see little real or significant contribution from him, particularly in the most important of games.

 

In 2 games vs. the Pats and their horrific rushing D this past season he was 36 fo 146 rushing, and 4.0 ypc with 0 TDs.

 

Against Miami and their not much better rushing D he was 27 for 94, 3.5 ypc and 0 TDs.

 

Against the Jets and their 3rd ranked rushing D he was 23 for 15, for not even 1 ypc, and 0 TDs.

 

That's 86 for 255, 3.0 ypc, and 0 TDs in 6 games against the division this past season.

 

In 4 seasons, career, vs. the AFCE he's 266 for 1,128 and 2 TDs rushing, including that monster game vs. the Jets to open the '12 season. That's not even average NFL performance.

 

'nuff said.

Edited March 17, 2014 by TaskersGhost

[Ronin]

By the way, Spiller had his greatest average rushing up the middle at 5.8 this past season. It was lower across the board for Right, Left, Right Sideline, and culminating with Left Sideline where he averaged only 2.6 yards on 21 carries. So this notion that he runs better to the outsides clearly wasn't borne out this past season.

 

I mean why would a coach continue to run to that side if he was averaging only 2.6?

 

If you ask me, teams are merely covering him better after his quick start in '12.

 

Jackson's in the middle of his curtain call, the team had better find a 3-down solution at RB or they'll be screwed there going forward too.

Edited March 17, 2014 by TaskersGhost

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

Consolidated Post

Edited April 11, 2014 by Whitewalker Merriman