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Change in running philosophy that makes CJ expendable?


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Andre Williams, RB, Boston College

 

Projected Round: 4th

 

 

0:28 is power.

The only thing that worried me with Williams is "mileage". 355 carries in a year is insane.

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CJ at his best is worth more to this team than it can get for him in trade. Now, you may have a legitimate point that this team cannot help him be his best -- or that there is some other "block" in his growth/development in the game that is keeping him from doing so.

 

I hate, hate, hate the idea of turning another one of these first round picks, AGAIN at RB, into something less. I'd much rather see if it can work for him here, and risk the chance that he has a great season and goes elsewhere. I don't see getting more than a third for him with his contract coming up, and off a down season with both injury and inconsistent play.

 

Ask yourself, if you're another team trading for him: what would you offer? If you're being honest, the answer is "not much." This isn't Richardson, a top 5 pick coming off of one year where a team could bet he was just being misused by a bad team in a different system. This is a player with 4 seasons of data provided, and only one of them with full time success.

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CJ at his best is worth more to this team than it can get for him in trade. Now, you may have a legitimate point that this team cannot help him be his best -- or that there is some other "block" in his growth/development in the game that is keeping him from doing so.

 

I hate, hate, hate the idea of turning another one of these first round picks, AGAIN at RB, into something less. I'd much rather see if it can work for him here, and risk the chance that he has a great season and goes elsewhere. I don't see getting more than a third for him with his contract coming up, and off a down season with both injury and inconsistent play.

 

Ask yourself, if you're another team trading for him: what would you offer? If you're being honest, the answer is "not much." This isn't Richardson, a top 5 pick coming off of one year where a team could bet he was just being misused by a bad team in a different system. This is a player with 4 seasons of data provided, and only one of them with full time success.

 

I wouldn't know what to offer, I love the fact that Spiller can score at any given play, but I also know that sometimes he fumbles the ball, doesn't hit the right hole or just dances with no sense of feel for where the hole will develop. I hate it when he loses yards trying to hit everything outside or when he isn't aware of where the first down marker is, not to mention when he's not aware when to stay in bounds.

He's more valuable to us than any other team right now, I just hope he keeps developing as a runner.

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I wouldn't know what to offer, I love the fact that Spiller can score at any given play, but I also know that sometimes he fumbles the ball, doesn't hit the right hole or just dances with no sense of feel for where the hole will develop. I hate it when he loses yards trying to hit everything outside or when he isn't aware of where the first down marker is, not to mention when he's not aware when to stay in bounds.

He's more valuable to us than any other team right now, I just hope he keeps developing as a runner.

Agreed completely.

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No. Spiller is insanely productive for the number of carries he gets. Dixon was signed merely to give the Bills a good ST player and goal line battering ram. If anything the bills want to cut down on the penetration the line allows when Spiller is in the game.

 

Say what?

 

Based on TDs/touch he's among the least productive starters out there. 1 TD for every 43 touches. That may not be a big deal to some, but consider what they've said and still say about him, they say that he's a home-run threat every time he touches the ball.

 

Really? averaging just over 3 TDs/season. It's no wonder fans in Buffalo overrate their team.

 

In terms of yardage, his problem there, both this and last season, and he was a cut above useless in his first two seasons, is that he's massively inconsistent.

 

He'll post three or four great games that carry his statistical averages, but then doesn't show up for half the games and posts only so-so results in the other handful. He's just as inconsistent as Manuel is inaccurate.

 

In his only 4 games over 100 rushing this past season, 3 were against horrid defensive teams, particularly rush D. The only good one was Carolina and Spiller's numbers in that game were, not unexpectedly, carried by that long 77-yard run. After that he had no other TDs, rushing or receiving in those games. He was pathetic in 8 games and so-so in the other few.

 

Has anyone considered that last season was simply an anomaly that caught the league off-guard?

 

He's clearly not a 3-down RB, he's a role-player. Many RBs have posted similar seasons never to have been heard from again. McFadden is one of them. He was a 4th overall draft pick by the Raiders a couple of seasons earlier.

 

I see Spiller following similar footsteps.

Edited by TaskersGhost
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Say what?

 

Based on TDs/touch he's among the least productive starters out there. 1 TD for every 43 touches. That may not be a big deal to some, but consider what they've said and still say about him, they say that he's a home-run threat every time he touches the ball.

 

Really? averaging just over 3 TDs/season. It's no wonder fans in Buffalo overrate their team.

 

In terms of yardage, his problem there, both this and last season, and he was a cut above useless in his first two seasons, is that he's massively inconsistent.

 

He'll post three or four great games that carry his statistical averages, but then doesn't show up for half the games and posts only so-so results in the other handful. He's just as inconsistent as Manuel is inaccurate.

 

Has anyone considered that last season was simply an anomaly that caught the league off-guard?

 

He's clearly not a 3-down RB, he's a role-player. Many RBs have posted similar seasons never to have been heard from again. McFadden is one of them. He was a 4th overall draft pick by the Raiders a couple of seasons earlier.

 

I see Spiller following similar footsteps.

 

This is a bit short-sighted. Two things impacted Spiller last year that served to derail his season:

 

1.) Was never 100% healthy. He just wasn't the same RB from an explosion standpoint. Stands to reason given the nature of the injury. It's a testament to his heart that he still wanted to be out there.

 

2.) The switch from Gailey's spread offense and zone blocking schemes. CJ was very consistent from the moment he took over for an injured Freddy in 2011 and all through 2012.

 

GO BILLS!!!

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No. Spiller is insanely productive for the number of carries he gets. Dixon was signed merely to give the Bills a good ST player and goal line battering ram. If anything the bills want to cut down on the penetration the line allows when Spiller is in the game.

 

Bingo. Same as I was thinking. Dixon was a ST in San Fran. I read, and hardly carried the ball at all.

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This is a bit short-sighted. Two things impacted Spiller last year that served to derail his season:

 

1.) Was never 100% healthy. He just wasn't the same RB from an explosion standpoint. Stands to reason given the nature of the injury. It's a testament to his heart that he still wanted to be out there.

 

2.) The switch from Gailey's spread offense and zone blocking schemes. CJ was very consistent from the moment he took over for an injured Freddy in 2011 and all through 2012.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

Three things, IMO.

 

3. Defenses completely keying on CJ knowing that there is an unstable QB (pick any of the 3) behind an unstable line. Not mention the inexperienced and/or banged up receivers.

 

People are conflating cause and effect here. CJ looked bad because the offense as a whole was bad. The offense wasn't bad because CJ was bad. If EJ can develop into even a slightly above average QB, CJ (and by extension, the offense as a whole) will look a lot better.

Edited by uncle flap
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Three things, IMO.

 

3. Defenses completely keying on CJ knowing that there is an unstable QB (pick any of the 3) behind an unstable line. Not mention the inexperienced and/or banged up receivers.

 

People are conflating cause and effect here. CJ looked bad because the offense as a whole was bad. The offense wasn't bad because CJ was bad. If EJ can develop into even a slightly above average QB, CJ (and by extension, the offense as a whole) will look a lot better.

I'll give you that, but I'll also say that EJ could do better if he could depend on someone like CJ for blitz pickups, and for him to have better field vision on those dump-offs. The latter should result in those plays where CJ makes something out of nothing, makes the defense pay for keeping everything tight to the line of scrimmage, and thereby opens things up for the longer and intermediate routes by keeping everyone out of EJ's grill.

 

Both parties need to improve. CJ far too often seems to miss holes that FJ finds.

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Three things, IMO.

 

3. Defenses completely keying on CJ knowing that there is an unstable QB (pick any of the 3) behind an unstable line. Not mention the inexperienced and/or banged up receivers.

 

People are conflating cause and effect here. CJ looked bad because the offense as a whole was bad. The offense wasn't bad because CJ was bad. If EJ can develop into even a slightly above average QB, CJ (and by extension, the offense as a whole) will look a lot better.

 

I should have made your reasoning #1 on my own list. Teams dared our QBs to beat them all last season and we didn't do that nearly enough, obviously.

 

GO BILLS!!!

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This is a bit short-sighted. Two things impacted Spiller last year that served to derail his season:

 

1.) Was never 100% healthy. He just wasn't the same RB from an explosion standpoint. Stands to reason given the nature of the injury. It's a testament to his heart that he still wanted to be out there.

 

2.) The switch from Gailey's spread offense and zone blocking schemes. CJ was very consistent from the moment he took over for an injured Freddy in 2011 and all through 2012.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

I partly agree but also agree with taskersGhost that he may be best as a role player. He has had several seasons to prove his lofty draft status and it is evident, Fred Jackson does more with the same supporting cast. Even if we set aside CJ's draft ranking, it all depends on what kind of O identity Marrone and co. want to set. CJ has big play potential but it comes through too sparingly to be effective.

 

Going forward, a few points to note.

- Addition of Anthony Dixon covers us on the low side if Jackson declines or is injured.

- We still may be better off adding a 3rd round or lower RB to prepare for Jackson's eventual retirement

- This situation again hammers home the follies of drafting a RB high. We have too often spent top picks on RBs to get minimal returns when a different player/position could have helped the team more. Not only with the Bills, but Trent Richardson and the underwhelming Mendenhall also prove this same point

- If any team is willing to give us a 2nd rounder , I would consider his draft position as sunk money and make the trade. This is not hating on CJ (well maybe it is), but I would do it if Marrone thinks it makes the overall O better

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No. Spiller is insanely productive for the number of carries he gets. Dixon was signed merely to give the Bills a good ST player and goal line battering ram. If anything the bills want to cut down on the penetration the line allows when Spiller is in the game.

Agree! It seems we want to trade away all of our talent...Trade Stevie, trade CJ...honestly, CJ is a rare talent, he played injured last year, maybe that's why he wasn't "in space"

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I'm not saying this because I dislike CJ, though I'm admittedly not as high on him as some around here...Especially after I drafted him #1 overall in one of my FF leagues last year...

 

Note to CJ...Don't worry buddy...Knowshon Moreno of all people bailed your ass out until I managed to trade for Adrian Peterson late in the year...Still finished 1st in my Division (and lost the Championship game) despite the fact that Spiller and that other bum Trent Richardson were my first two picks... :lol:

 

But anyway... I see very little chance of CJ being in Buffalo past 2015 when his rookie deal runs out...I would not be at all surprised to see the Bills bring in their RB of the future in the 2015 Draft...There's really no need to address it this off season...Freddie is still playing at a high level, and Dixon will be used a bit as a grinder...But all in all I don't like CJ's chances past 2015 in Buffalo...Especially if Marrone is around...I don't think he fits the way Marrone/Hackett want to run the ball...Plus I don't think the Bills are going to want to pony up to keep him... B-)

Edited by KOKBILLS
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You would think that a coach who came from a team that figured out how to get the most out of Reggie Bush would be able to do the same with Spiller.

Not the same style of runners. And if CJ isn't in the plans, they should get value now, not wait till the last minute.

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You would think that a coach who came from a team that figured out how to get the most out of Reggie Bush would be able to do the same with Spiller.

It was all about protection last year . Protect the qb . Then develop the play calling. That went to hell early enough with injuries.

I do feel that Marrone put CJ into a square hole and demanded he play a traditional role .

Whats kinda fun after this Boobie signing is that i am not sure what tyhe offense will look like.

This can be good .

And i hope they let CJ do his thing

Edited by 3rdand12
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