Estro Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 It'll be of the utmost importance that the Buffalo Bills DO NOT sign as many FA's as we lose in this years FA signing period. I think that's why it makes sense to sign a LB like Jameel McClain who was cut rather than a FA like Brandon Spikes, because a player who was cut by his team does not count as a FA signing (according to NFL rules). If we have a net loss in FA we are all but locked in to receive a 3rd round compensatory pick in next years 2015 draft, due to the monstrous contract Byrd just signed. A lot of people were able to cope with losing LeVitre last year under the assumption we'd receive a 3rd/4th round compensatory pick this year. That didn't happen because we signed Branch and Lawson, and therefore had no net loss in FA which kills your chances of getting one of the 3rd/4th comp. picks. So remember as the FA period continues.......we are rooting to lose 1 more player than we gain to lock in an extra 3rd round pick in next years draft. I hate losing Byrd, but picking up an extra 3rd rounder would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 (edited) Not a lot of wiggle room as I don't expect us to lose many qualifying guys. Chandler maybe? Edited March 12, 2014 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The comp pick stuff is a mystery. I don't think they can or should engage in free agency worrying about getting the pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuntheDamnBall Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 F--- the picks. Get good players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The comp pick stuff is a mystery. I don't think they can or should engage in free agency worrying about getting the pick. It's no mystery. It's incredibly simple and if they can't keep track of the basics that's no good. Lets hope that they are wise enough not to sign a backup lineman that turns a 3rd into a 7th if it's their final move of the offseason and there are similar players available that wouldn't or they could wait a couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proteus Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 You have got to be !@#$ing kidding me! Don't go after free agents because we can get a late 3rd/early 4th round pick, yippe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 (edited) F--- the picks. Get good players. Right, while making smart decisions. Don't let it drive the whole process but don't completely ignore it other things being relatively equal. Don't pass on 4 starters to protect the pick but if it's mid may and we are filling a depth role that's a different story Edited March 12, 2014 by NoSaint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estro Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 The comp pick stuff is a mystery. I don't think they can or should engage in free agency worrying about getting the pick. I think you're dead wrong. There's a dude who every year accurately predicts all of the compensatory picks on his website based on who teams signed, who teams lost and the amount of $$$ in the contracts signed. He's dead on every year. And I think signing a low end FA who will be nothing more than depth would be a HUGE mistake if it means forgoing a 3rd round pick in next years draft. At that point the front office has to ask themselves is signing this player worth trading away next years 3rd round pick because that's essentially what they'd be doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Not a lot of wiggle room as I don't expect us to lose many qualifying guys. Chandler maybe? Moats is looking like Cleveland and I haven't heard anything about Carrington yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCity Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 (edited) The comp pick stuff is a mystery. It's not a mystery, Estro is correct about the net gain. The Branch signing last year cost us at least a 4th this year, possibly a 3rd. The problem is we are probably only going to lose 3 people - Byrd, Chandler Moats. That means we can only sign 2 players - that's a bit rough for the amount of holes we have. Edited March 12, 2014 by QCity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuntheDamnBall Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 It's no mystery. It's incredibly simple and if they can't keep track of the basics that's no good. Lets hope that they are wise enough not to sign a backup lineman that turns a 3rd into a 7th if it's their final move of the offseason and there are similar players available that wouldn't or they could wait a couple weeks. No doubt. I do think that compared to baseball (where you can really manipulate outcomes with qualifying offers, etc) it's far less transparent and reliable. I wouldn't count on those picks, is all - and I wouldn't let it be the difference when considering adding strong talent to the team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estro Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 You have got to be !@#$ing kidding me! Don't go after free agents because we can get a late 3rd/early 4th round pick, yippe! I'm not saying don't go after FA's. I'm just saying if you lose 4 guys, sign 3. And if you want to sign 4 go on ahead just make sure that the 4th guy you sign is more valuable than the 3rd rounder you're giving up in next years draft by signing him, because that is the cost. Last year Alan Branch likely cost us a 3rd, probably more likely a 4th rounder due to losing Andy LeVitre. Now was he worth it? yea he prob. was. So, I'm not saying don't do it, I'm just saying make sure the FA signing is worth it. Byrd 100% guarantees us a 3rd rounder based on the HUUUGEEE deal he got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Moats is looking like Cleveland and I haven't heard anything about Carrington yet. Those are very true. Spaced on both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCity Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Forgot about Carrington, yeah we could lose 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Those are very true. Spaced on both. I only remembered them from WGR earlier talking about not hearing anything but both were extended offers from the Bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estro Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 Moats is looking like Cleveland and I haven't heard anything about Carrington yet. Byrd is gone. I'd expect Carrington to def. make a teams roster if the Bills don't resign him. Likewise for Chandler. Moats seems like a 50/50 type guy who will be in camp but not a 100% lock to make a teams final roster. I think the Bills will end up losing 2 maybe 3. Are there any other FA's we're missing?? Jim Leonhard comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I think you're dead wrong. There's a dude who every year accurately predicts all of the compensatory picks on his website based on who teams signed, who teams lost and the amount of $$$ in the contracts signed. He's dead on every year. And I think signing a low end FA who will be nothing more than depth would be a HUGE mistake if it means forgoing a 3rd round pick in next years draft. At that point the front office has to ask themselves is signing this player worth trading away next years 3rd round pick because that's essentially what they'd be doing. Maybe mystery is the wrong word, but it's not as simple as people on here think. I have read the Philly.com articles on this, and the predictions admit a lot of gray areas and revisions, some of it based on changes in the CBA. But my principal point is that the Bills need to get players and can't worry about the comp picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 (edited) Byrd is gone. I'd expect Carrington to def. make a teams roster if the Bills don't resign him. Likewise for Chandler. Moats seems like a 50/50 type guy who will be in camp but not a 100% lock to make a teams final roster. I think the Bills will end up losing 2 maybe 3. Are there any other FA's we're missing?? Jim Leonhard comes to mind. Jim will likely resign since someone pointed out he plans on retiring after 2014. Figure he would want to finish his career where it started. Forget who said it though in the shoutbox. Assuming we give him an offer which I don't see why we wouldn't. Edited March 12, 2014 by The Wiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estro Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 Maybe mystery is the wrong word, but it's not as simple as people on here think. I have read the Philly.com articles on this, and the predictions admit a lot of gray areas and revisions, some of it based on changes in the CBA. But my principal point is that the Bills need to get players and can't worry about the comp picks. So just to get you on record on this. Would you be okay if the Bills signed a FA that they planned to use on special teams coverage only if it meant forgoing a 3rd round draft choice in next years draft? I have faith that Whaley and Co. would have the common sense not to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 So just to get you on record on this. Would you be okay if the Bills signed a FA that they planned to use on special teams coverage only if it meant forgoing a 3rd round draft choice in next years draft? I have faith that Whaley and Co. would have the common sense not to do that. Haha. It is critical that I get on record on this, huh?! The reality is we aren't going to do that. What Whaley made it sound like and based on the guys we have brought in was that we are going after a couple of mid-tier guys-- probably similar to Lawson last year. If the Bills grabbed a starting LB, a back-up corner, and some depth on the line, I think they have to do it, even if we lose a comp pick over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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