Everson Griffen & the rising cost of FAs

[BADOLBILZ]

I just saw that the Vikings re-signed Everson Griffen, a situational pass rusher who's never had double-digit sacks in a season, to a 5-year, $42M deal.

 

Wow.

 

Obviously the market is up quite a bit, which makes me wonder what other types of funny money we'll see thrown around in the early stages of FA--most likely by teams looking to be flashy (a la Miami last year).

 

Personally, I'd prefer if Buffalo doesn't dole out massive bucks like this, but rather makes some value signings instead. I do worry that the value guys may see the huge $$ being tossed around and not be ready to settle for value though, so we may have to pay more than we're expecting in order to get the players we want.

 

I told ya'll so.

 

Last year I was adamant about the Bills failing to capitalize on a great buyers market for free agency.

 

There was an assumption that things had leveled off, but all it takes is a significant bump in the cap to make things move. $10M is A LOT of space for teams that are balls-out-to-win.

 

We shall see if the market dries up in a couple weeks, but it simply isn't going to be a buyers market like it was last year. Those don't happen very often. Last one before last season was almost 15 years earlier. Bills missed that one too.

[B-Man]

Well if Free agents are going to expect similar overpriced contracts,

 

then I say, the hell with that line of thinking

 

and use your extra (cap) money to re-sign our own players.

 

 

.

[Kevin]

Well if Free agents are going to expect similar overpriced contracts,

 

then I say, the hell with that line of thinking

 

and use your extra (cap) money to re-sign our own players.

 

 

.

 

Early, which is where the Bills went wrong with Byrd.

[KOKBILLS]

Early, which is where the Bills went wrong with Byrd.

 

And apparently right with A. Williams...

 

Not that I'm defending them with Byrd...Just saying...The way this market is going one more year like last year and Aaron would have demanded a big-time payday...

[Kevin]

 

 

And apparently right with A. Williams...

 

Not that I'm defending them with Byrd...Just saying...The way this market is going one more year like last year and Aaron would have demanded a big-time payday...

 

You're right. They need to lock Dareus and Jerry Hughes up too.

[DC Grid]

I fear this contract shows just how grossly the Bills front office has misjudged the free agency market this year in their refusal to pay or franchise Byrd.

[NoSaint]

I fear this contract shows just how grossly the Bills front office has misjudged the free agency market this year in their refusal to pay or franchise Byrd.

 

But I heard Whaley say we have to let him fly and see if he will come back to us

[BillsVet]

If you're going to make this argument, it's probably worth noting that Stevie Johnson should be included in the re-signed category...one could also pick nits with Byrd, as the team did indeed keep him beyond his rookie contract.

 

Let's include Johnson as well. That means from 2007-09 the Bills found 7 above average or better starters via the draft. Not great, but certainly not horrible either. Of those 7, they retained the services of 3 (Johnson, Wood, and McKelvin).

 

The main reason Buffalo doesn't retain their draftees from those classes is they weren't doing what they did with Aaron Williams: anticipate a player's value to the team and re-sign them before they hit peak value. (Cue the "it takes two to tango" cliche)

 

I don't expect Buffalo to keep a guy like Posluszny on a contract like what he received from Jacksonville or what Levitre got from Tennessee. If the Bills really wanted to keep Byrd, they should have initiated talks late in 2011 at the end of his third season. I know someone will say hindsight is 20/20, but I expect NFL personnel men to know when to keep a player. That is, if they aren't restricted by the powers that be which exist in Buffalo.

[Dragonborn10]

Bills FO is just bad. They undervalue Byrd and let him walk when he should have been paid him top dollar last year. All that wasted cap money last year is in RW's pocket now. Why was Fitz's dead money not put on last years cap? It is total BS. They will claim they can't spend money in FA due to dead money that they could have used last year. Watch them next extend Spiller and let Dareus walk.

How bad do you have to be not to recognize the value of your own players?

[Since 1972]

I disagree. I think the Bills are a very nicely talented team poised to win if EJ emerges.

I will think the Bills are a very nicely talented team when they make the damn playoffs.

[thebandit27]

I told ya'll so.

 

Last year I was adamant about the Bills failing to capitalize on a great buyers market for free agency.

 

There was an assumption that things had leveled off, but all it takes is a significant bump in the cap to make things move. $10M is A LOT of space for teams that are balls-out-to-win.

 

We shall see if the market dries up in a couple weeks, but it simply isn't going to be a buyers market like it was last year. Those don't happen very often. Last one before last season was almost 15 years earlier. Bills missed that one too.

 

What FAs should the Bills have capitalized on last year? Throwing $7M/year on Dannell Ellerbe? You know as well as anyone that every single year teams throw ridiculous money at players that are way over-valued on the open market. The best teams don't do that, but instead wait and make value signings.

 

I fear this contract shows just how grossly the Bills front office has misjudged the free agency market this year in their refusal to pay or franchise Byrd.

 

That's interesting...I feel that Griffen's contract is a perfect example of a team making a horrible error in judgement. I totally agree that Buffalo should have tagged Byrd...I don't at all agree that it's right to pay a player a totally exorbitant contract because "everybody's doing it".

 

That's why you don't see NE throwing crazy money at Talib, Seattle selling out for Michael Bennett, etc.

 

Bills FO is just bad. They undervalue Byrd and let him walk when he should have been paid him top dollar last year. All that wasted cap money last year is in RW's pocket now. Why was Fitz's dead money not put on last years cap? It is total BS. They will claim they can't spend money in FA due to dead money that they could have used last year. Watch them next extend Spiller and let Dareus walk.

How bad do you have to be not to recognize the value of your own players?

 

I see this argument made without consideration of the situation far too often. Based on what you've seen this off-season, what--pray tell--makes you believe that Byrd would've signed any contract with Buffalo last off-season?

 

I also question the idea that the team doesn't recognize value in their own players, as since the end of last season they've extended Eric Wood, Alan Branch, and Aaron Williams. Does the fact that Byrd wouldn't take a reported $10M/year offer from Buffalo negate the guys they do re-sign? If so, would you mind explaining why, as I don't understand that viewpoint?

 

Let's include Johnson as well. That means from 2007-09 the Bills found 7 above average or better starters via the draft. Not great, but certainly not horrible either. Of those 7, they retained the services of 3 (Johnson, Wood, and McKelvin).

 

The main reason Buffalo doesn't retain their draftees from those classes is they weren't doing what they did with Aaron Williams: anticipate a player's value to the team and re-sign them before they hit peak value. (Cue the "it takes two to tango" cliche)

 

I don't expect Buffalo to keep a guy like Posluszny on a contract like what he received from Jacksonville or what Levitre got from Tennessee. If the Bills really wanted to keep Byrd, they should have initiated talks late in 2011 at the end of his third season. I know someone will say hindsight is 20/20, but I expect NFL personnel men to know when to keep a player. That is, if they aren't restricted by the powers that be which exist in Buffalo.

 

I think this is the point you were getting at all along...sure, there were one or two guys (namely Greer) that got away prior to Nix/Whaley taking over...the important part is that they do what's right from this point on...from the looks of things (i..e. the proactive approach to keeping Wood/Branch/Williams) they are doing so.

 

And I agree that giving Poz or Levitre those deals would've been insane.

[thebandit27]

Adam Schefter ‏@AdamSchefter 12m

And now, as @ProFootballTalk reported, Seattle's deal with DE Michael Bennett is done. Expect it to be four years, about $34 million.

 

So Seattle signs Michael Bennett for almost the same money as Everson Griffen.

 

Apparently the cost of FAs isn't necessarily going to go bonkers...perhaps this is just a case of Minnesota being stupid?

Edited March 10, 2014 by thebandit27

[KOKBILLS]

Adam Schefter ‏@AdamSchefter 12m

And now, as @ProFootballTalk reported, Seattle's deal with DE Michael Bennett is done. Expect it to be four years, about $34 million.

 

So Seattle signs Michael Bennett for almost the same money as Everson Griffen.

 

Apparently the cost of FAs isn't necessarily going to go bonkers...perhaps this is just a case of Minnesota being stupid?

 

Well...

 

That and the fact that Seattle has more than earned a "hometown deal" if in fact that is the case with Bennett...They earn it on the field...Tough to leave that team...

[NoSaint]

 

 

Well...

 

That and the fact that Seattle has more than earned a "hometown deal" if in fact that is the case with Bennett...They earn it on the field...Tough to leave that team...

 

wasnt bennet quoted extensively on the fact that he liked seattle but didnt intend to give them any discount at all?

[KOKBILLS]

wasnt bennet quoted extensively on the fact that he liked seattle but didnt intend to give them any discount at all?

 

Maybe so...And maybe he didn't...

 

But at the end of the day it's still tough to leave a team that good...That's all I'm saying...

[BADOLBILZ]

What FAs should the Bills have capitalized on last year? Throwing $7M/year on Dannell Ellerbe? You know as well as anyone that every single year teams throw ridiculous money at players that are way over-valued on the open market. The best teams don't do that, but instead wait and make value signings.

 

My top target was Aqib Talib. I thought at the time that a 3 year $6-6.5M per deal would have gotten that done. Seems to me that would have been the case in hindsight as well, he took a 1 year deal for less after sitting on the market for some time. My rationale was that the Bills were too thin in the secondary and a shut-down type corner like Talib would have really elevated the Bills pass defense while hurting a rival. He was the bargain of FA IMO. Subsequently, Talib was likely the best CB in the AFC this year and the legion of boom secondary won the SB for Seattle. It was the year to have great CB play.

 

I was also focused on the team addressing the guard situation after Levitre left. I understood their rationale....Buddy Nix wanted huge lineman....... but I disagreed because the team couldn't afford to risk taking a step back. There were good options on the market that were much cheaper than Levitre. Chas Rhinegoldstein, Schwartz even Vasquez was cheaper. There were bargains to be had in that crop.

 

As it turns out......poor OG play and poor CB play were glaring and primary culprits in the Bills bad start. Could the Bills have made the playoffs last year? With relatively poor QB play? Absolutely. It happens most years that one or two poorly QB'd teams win enough games to get in the dance and until the team quit after the KC game, they were scoring enough points where you couldn't say they were anemic in that regard.

 

In any event, that's how you bust a slump. 3 year plans are for college coaches, not in the NFL anymore. New coach + Sheer force of talent accumulated from years of losing + favorable schedule = the end of the culture of losing and a good start for the Marrone era.

 

The cost to get off to a good start last year? Maybe $8-$10M in cap room to add Talib or Grimes and a decent FA guard option. That was what I was talking about. Not signing somebody else's one year wonder like Danelle Ellerbe.

[QCity]

Reason #1 why you build through the draft. Free agency is fool's gold. Guys get overpriced. You draft your core and fill the roster with bargain free agents.

 

Everson Griffen was supposed to be a bargain free agent. The Vikings foolishly paid him like a starter in a panic move after Allen just said he wants out. Terrible contract.

[thebandit27]

 

 

My top target was Aqib Talib. I thought at the time that a 3 year $6-6.5M per deal would have gotten that done. Seems to me that would have been the case in hindsight as well, he took a 1 year deal for less after sitting on the market for some time. My rationale was that the Bills were too thin in the secondary and a shut-down type corner like Talib would have really elevated the Bills pass defense while hurting a rival. He was the bargain of FA IMO. Subsequently, Talib was likely the best CB in the AFC this year and the legion of boom secondary won the SB for Seattle. It was the year to have great CB play.

 

I was also focused on the team addressing the guard situation after Levitre left. I understood their rationale....Buddy Nix wanted huge lineman....... but I disagreed because the team couldn't afford to risk taking a step back. There were good options on the market that were much cheaper than Levitre. Chas Rhinegoldstein, Schwartz even Vasquez was cheaper. There were bargains to be had in that crop.

 

As it turns out......poor OG play and poor CB play were glaring and primary culprits in the Bills bad start. Could the Bills have made the playoffs last year? With relatively poor QB play? Absolutely. It happens most years that one or two poorly QB'd teams win enough games to get in the dance and until the team quit after the KC game, they were scoring enough points where you couldn't say they were anemic in that regard.

 

In any event, that's how you bust a slump. 3 year plans are for college coaches, not in the NFL anymore. New coach + Sheer force of talent accumulated from years of losing + favorable schedule = the end of the culture of losing and a good start for the Marrone era.

 

The cost to get off to a good start last year? Maybe $8-$10M in cap room to add Talib or Grimes and a decent FA guard option. That was what I was talking about. Not signing somebody else's one year wonder like Danelle Ellerbe.

 

Signing Talib very likely would've meant not signing McKelvin--probably a wash there, unless you're advocating spending $10M/yr for both, which I doubt most teams would do.

 

I also cannot agree that Talib and, say, Schwartz would be the difference between 10-6 and 6-10 as you seem to be implying.

 

The Bills' CB situation looks quite bright right now, ad the LG situation can be easily rectified. I understand it's coming a year later than we might like; I just don't think throwing money at free agents solves every problem--the Bills were right to see what they had IMO...

 

They do still need to upgrade at LG though.

[BADOLBILZ]

Signing Talib very likely would've meant not signing McKelvin--probably a wash there, unless you're advocating spending $10M/yr for both, which I doubt most teams would do.

 

I also cannot agree that Talib and, say, Schwartz would be the difference between 10-6 and 6-10 as you seem to be implying.

 

The Bills' CB situation looks quite bright right now, ad the LG situation can be easily rectified. I understand it's coming a year later than we might like; I just don't think throwing money at free agents solves every problem--the Bills were right to see what they had IMO...

 

They do still need to upgrade at LG though.

 

Signing McKelvin was a given. He was going to be cheap. The Bills overpaid him by nearly $2M per year thinking the market was going to be stronger. There were people on here trying to say that the Bills had to pay him extra for his special teams ability.....perhaps you were one of them.....but that was a goofy notion IMO. He wasn't even a starting CB.......but you know what....I was in favor of signing him to that deal. I applauded it. Because years of bad decisions gotta' be paid for either with more losing or more money. I choose the latter.

 

And what exactly would happen if the Bills had two good CB's under contract for less than one great one makes? How would it harm the Bills in the future? The answer is that it wouldn't. The Bills are light years from being in any cap difficulty.

 

You don't get it. I understand this is the case. I guess 14 years isn't enough evidence for you but fortune does not favor the timid.

 

The interesting thing is that for all the people here who BUST on the Dolphins for spending a lot in free agency, the Fish actually got closer to the playoffs last year than the Bills have been all but one time in the last 14 years. The Bills beat them twice and somehow finished behind them. But hey.....keep thinking the Bills couldn't have beaten NE or the NYJ early in the season with a little better coverage and blocking.....and then rode that momentum to improbable victories over juggernauts like Pittsburgh, Tampa or Atlanta later in the season to finish with a 10 win season. Couldn't happen. Not to the Bills. Not the team that beat the NFC's eventual #2 seed during the regular season. Never.

[DC Grid]

 

 

wasnt bennet quoted extensively on the fact that he liked seattle but didnt intend to give them any discount at all?

 

That's what Bennett said, but the fact is the Bears were offering a lot more according to reports.