Are the Quarterbacks going to start dropping?

[K-9]

For me personally, if I'm Houston and I have the #1 pick, I don't expect to be picking there again any time soon. My goal, in that case, is to get a once-in-a-generation-type player.

 

If the level of talent in the draft is like last year, where it's just generally lower, then I find it easier to take a QB #1 overall, because--as you correctly stated--it is always the #1 priority.

 

In a year like this one, I would struggle to do that, given that there are 4 players (Clowney, Robinson, Mack, and Watkins) that IMO fit the once-in-a-generation label, and none of them are QBs.

 

While I have no idea if Rick Smith and Bill O'Brien will agree with my thought process, I can only say that my opinion--were I in their shoes--would be to draft a guy like Clowney/Robinson/Mack, thinking that in a worst-case scenario I can draft a guy like Garropolo in the 2nd/3rd round, and--if it doesn't work out--I can go after my franchise guy next year.

 

I wonder if that's why Cleveland floated the rumor that they have Garoppolo rated higher than Manziel to make Houston think Jimmy G won't be there later on with the hopes they grab a QB at 1 and Clowney falls to them. I don't buy that the Browns are QB crazy with their 1st pick.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[thebandit27]

I wonder if that's why Cleveland floated the rumor that they have Garoppolo rated higher than Manziel to make Houston think Jimmy G won't be there later on with the hopes they grab a QB at 1 and Clowney falls to them. I don't buy that the Browns are QB crazy with their 1st pick.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

Could be...on a related issue, I heard through the grapevine that O'Brien "likes Garropolo a lot"...perhaps he's in play at 33?

[GunnerBill]

For me personally, if I'm Houston and I have the #1 pick, I don't expect to be picking there again any time soon. My goal, in that case, is to get a once-in-a-generation-type player.

 

I see it the same as you. I totally get where KOKBILLS is coming from though, not taking a QB would be a hard sell for Houston to their fanbase. I think Jacksonville pick a Quarterback 100%. But everyone else I think there is a little doubt in my mind.... could only be 1 off the board before 9 but there could just as easily be 4 off the board.

[KOKBILLS]

For me personally, if I'm Houston and I have the #1 pick, I don't expect to be picking there again any time soon. My goal, in that case, is to get a once-in-a-generation-type player.

 

If the level of talent in the draft is like last year, where it's just generally lower, then I find it easier to take a QB #1 overall, because--as you correctly stated--it is always the #1 priority.

 

In a year like this one, I would struggle to do that, given that there are 4 players (Clowney, Robinson, Mack, and Watkins) that IMO fit the once-in-a-generation label, and none of them are QBs.

 

While I have no idea if Rick Smith and Bill O'Brien will agree with my thought process, I can only say that my opinion--were I in their shoes--would be to draft a guy like Clowney/Robinson/Mack, thinking that in a worst-case scenario I can draft a guy like Garropolo in the 2nd/3rd round, and--if it doesn't work out--I can go after my franchise guy next year.

 

I guess it all comes down to how they value Bridgewater, Bortles, and Manziel...This was the QB class everyone was waiting for last year...All 3 QB's are graded pretty high...Personally I like Bridgewater a lot...Bortles has been called a poor man's Andrew Luck by some...It just depends...

 

I hear what you're saying though...Personally I would take Robinson over Clowney...I do think Robinson has Orlando Pace capabilities...Clowney scares me...I follow Gamecocks football pretty closely after living in Charlotte NC for 20 years...The kid is an absolute athletic freak...But he can completely disappear at times too...

 

But anyway...IMHO if you don't have a QB that once-in-a-generation player is not going to get you too far...At least not far enough...

[MikeSpeed]

I think only 1 QB will be taken in the top 10 and that will be Bortles. Out of the big 3 he is the only proto-typical QB. Another "bold" prediction the Jets will trade up with the Rams and take Watkins. They have nothing at WR.

[K-9]

I think only 1 QB will be taken in the top 10 and that will be Bortles. Out of the big 3 he is the only proto-typical QB. Another "bold" prediction the Jets will trade up with the Rams and take Watkins. They have nothing at WR.

 

Of the big three, he is also the least pro ready. Too many question marks surrounding all of these QB prospects. I'm on board with your prediction of only 1 in the top 10. Two if there are two teams that desperate that they would stupid enough to pass on such clear superior talent at other positions.

 

Like I said yesterday, the highest I've seen any QB ranked overall at this point, is Bridgewater at 16. Manziel was at 19 and Bortles was at 23.

 

Disclaimer: nobody will find these rankings posted anywhere on line so please don't give me crap because they don't jive with the 'CBS Top 50' or Mayock's top 25.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[D521646]

I think this conversation becomes more clear March 12th when free agency begins. If the QB needy teams hire themselves some security (Ala Bills last year) we could see the top of the board shift dramatically in the wrong direction; that's in wrong direction for the Bills.

 

Tim-

[mannc]

Of the big three, he is also the least pro ready. Too many question marks surrounding all of these QB prospects. I'm on board with your prediction of only 1 in the top 10. Two if there are two teams that desperate that they would stupid enough to pass on such clear superior talent at other positions.

 

Like I said yesterday, the highest I've seen any QB ranked overall at this point, is Bridgewater at 16. Manziel was at 19 and Bortles was at 23.

 

Disclaimer: nobody will find these rankings posted anywhere on line so please don't give me crap because they don't jive with the 'CBS Top 50' or Mayock's top 25.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Regardless of how they are ranked on someone's "Big Board", I would be shocked if at least three QBs don't come off the board in the first 8 picks. This might not be 1983 all over again, but these QBs are far better than last year's crop and there are a lot of QB-needy teams at the top of the draft. I just don't think there is any way Jacksonville or Minnesota can not take a QB, and I believe Houston, Cleveland, and Oakland will be under a lot of pressure to do so. Furthermore, I think it would be good for the Bills if one or more of the top QBs dropped; that would just increase the possibility that another team would want to trade up to number 9.

[thebandit27]

Regardless of how they are ranked on someone's "Big Board", I would be shocked if at least three QBs don't come off the board in the first 8 picks. This might not be 1983 all over again, but these QBs are far better than last year's crop and there are a lot of QB-needy teams at the top of the draft. I just don't think there is any way Jacksonville or Minnesota can not take a QB, and I believe Houston, Cleveland, and Oakland will be under a lot of pressure to do so. Furthermore, I think it would be good for the Bills if one or more of the top QBs dropped; that would just increase the possibility that another team would want to trade up to number 9.

 

I'm far from sold on that...

[K-9]

Regardless of how they are ranked on someone's "Big Board", I would be shocked if at least three QBs don't come off the board in the first 8 picks. This might not be 1983 all over again, but these QBs are far better than last year's crop and there are a lot of QB-needy teams at the top of the draft. I just don't think there is any way Jacksonville or Minnesota can not take a QB, and I believe Houston, Cleveland, and Oakland will be under a lot of pressure to do so. Furthermore, I think it would be good for the Bills if one or more of the top QBs dropped; that would just increase the possibility that another team would want to trade up to number 9.

 

Just to be clear, the rankings I cite aren't close to being on a big board yet. Just two scouts' takes with lots of consensus building left to do. But I trust these guys. I don't agree that this year's crop is "far better" than last year's. The hype is certainly louder which is the case in years when so many teams at the top of the draft have seemingly clear QB needs.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Edited March 7, 2014 by K-9

[thewildrabbit]

I think this conversation becomes more clear March 12th when free agency begins. If the QB needy teams hire themselves some security (Ala Bills last year) we could see the top of the board shift dramatically in the wrong direction; that's in wrong direction for the Bills.

 

Tim-

I have the opposite view, as I think the Bills might just get lucky at #9.

 

 

Right now the QB's have dropped a bit because most didn't preform at that the combine. Those QB' that didn't throw at the combine will throw and run drills at their pro day, or specific work out day. Then we should see the QB's start to rise again once the scouts get a look at their arms, and ability their to hit all passes.

 

One thing we know for certain is that five of the eight teams ahead of Buffalo all have a great need for a "franchise" QB. I'm pretty certain that at least three QB's will go in the top 10, Bortles, Bridgewater, Manziel.

 

Both QB's and O linemen seem to move up as the draft gets closer. The top three O linemen should also go in the top 10, Robinson, Matthews, Lewan. So that should leave the Bills with some interesting choices at #9. JMO

[K-9]

I think this conversation becomes more clear March 12th when free agency begins. If the QB needy teams hire themselves some security (Ala Bills last year) we could see the top of the board shift dramatically in the wrong direction; that's in wrong direction for the Bills.

 

Tim-

 

We may have seen a glimpse of that already with Jax re-upping Henne for a couple years. Yes, there are several ways to interpret that, but they bought themselves some form of QB security for two years.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[mannc]

I'm far from sold on that...

On what? The possibility of 3 or more QBs going in the top 8? Or that QBs dropping might be good for the Bills?

 

We may have seen a glimpse of that already with Jax re-upping Henne for a couple years. Yes, there are several ways to interpret that, but they bought themselves some form of QB security for two years.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Cassel and Vick are the only FA QBs I am aware of that will garner serious interest. If you were Houston or Minnesota, would you really be content going into 2014 with one of those guys at the helm? That seems to signal "rebuilding" year. And I'm guessing Jacksonville (and their fans) are not looking forward to another season with Henne at the helm; I have to believe the plan is for him to be the back up.

Edited March 7, 2014 by mannc

[thebandit27]

On what? The possibility of 3 or more QBs going in the top 8? Or that QBs dropping might be good for the Bills?

 

On the part that I bolded in the post I quoted, which was that "these QBs are far better than last year's crop"

 

I don't think that's true, and my impression is that at least several NFL teams don't think it's true either.

 

The fact that K-9, who I know also has contacts in the scouting community, corroborates this, makes me feel like there's at least a fairly sizable faction of teams that are less than thrilled with this crop of QBs.

 

Sorry for any confusion.

[mannc]

 

 

On the part that I bolded in the post I quoted, which was that "these QBs are far better than last year's crop"

 

I don't think that's true, and my impression is that at least several NFL teams don't think it's true either.

 

The fact that K-9, who I know also has contacts in the scouting community, corroborates this, makes me feel like there's at least a fairly sizable faction of teams that are less than thrilled with this crop of QBs.

 

Sorry for any confusion.

Sorry, didn't see the boldest part, You might be right about the scouting consensus but it only takes one GM to pull the trigger. In my amateur opinion Bridgewater, Manziel, McCarron, and maybe even Boyd are better prospects than anyone who came out last year. I can't comment on Bortles because I have not seen him play.

[K-9]

On what? The possibility of 3 or more QBs going in the top 8? Or that QBs dropping might be good for the Bills?

 

 

Cassel and Vick are the only FA QBs I am aware of that will garner serious interest. If you were Houston or Minnesota, would you really be content going into 2014 with one of those guys at the helm? That seems to signal "rebuilding" year. And I'm guessing Jacksonville (and their fans) are not looking forward to another season with Henne at the helm; I have to believe the plan is for him to be the back up.

 

I agree that's one way the Henne re-signing could be taken. Another way is that Jax sees an opportunity to get a generational talent at another position and decides to go in that direction instead.

 

Look, I'm not about to guess what ANY team is gonna do on draft day. I stopped doing that years ago. I'm just going by the best information I have which tells me the gap between the QBs in this draft and the other positions is as wide as it's ever been, such is the talent available at those other positions. It's hard to ignore and the old school football part of me knows how much of a premiums is placed on TALENT, regardless, that I would be the least bit surprised if the typical pre-draft QB hype comes up way short this year.

 

Contrast that to just two years ago. The same two guys I talk to had Luck ranked #1 and Griffin ranked #3 in the overall rankings.

 

Last year there was a dearth of QBs but the talent disparity between the QBs and other positions was no where near as wide as it is this year.

 

Anyway, I'm looking forward to seeing how it all unfolds and all the games teams play in the meantime.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[KOKBILLS]

Of the big three, he is also the least pro ready. Too many question marks surrounding all of these QB prospects. I'm on board with your prediction of only 1 in the top 10. Two if there are two teams that desperate that they would stupid enough to pass on such clear superior talent at other positions.

 

Like I said yesterday, the highest I've seen any QB ranked overall at this point, is Bridgewater at 16. Manziel was at 19 and Bortles was at 23.

 

Disclaimer: nobody will find these rankings posted anywhere on line so please don't give me crap because they don't jive with the 'CBS Top 50' or Mayock's top 25.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

Daniel Jeremiah, who scouted for 3 different NFL teams, has Bridgewater 9th, Manziel 10th, and Bortles 18th...

 

We all know QB's get overdrafted...So...I guess we'll see...Depends on desperation, need, etc...

[K-9]

Daniel Jeremiah, who scouted for 3 different NFL teams, has Bridgewater 9th, Manziel 10th, and Bortles 18th...

 

We all know QB's get overdrafted...So...I guess we'll see...Depends on desperation, need, etc...

 

Perhaps I should have included Daniel Jeremiah in my "Don't Give Me Crap" disclaimer. LOL.

 

Desperation can never be discounted. I'm just not as convinced as others that, given the HUGE gap in talent level this year, teams would be so willing to pass on potential GREAT players.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[KOKBILLS]

Perhaps I should have included Daniel Jeremiah in my "Don't Give Me Crap" disclaimer. LOL.

 

Desperation can never be discounted. I'm just not as convinced as others that, given the HUGE gap in talent level this year, teams would be so willing to pass on potential GREAT players.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

Well...Believe me I understand about a lot of these internet "scouts..." But Jeremiah at least has a resume that can be tracked and authenticated...

[Luxy312]

When all is said and done, this is a quarterback league. Absent having a stellar defense, teams are not making it very far in the playoffs without quality QB play. My take:

 

Houston - Matt Schaub hasn't proven to be "the guy", but that doesn't mean they don't grab Bortles here. If they don't, clearly Clowney is the pick.

St. Louis - I don't think they're ready to take a pass on Sam Bradford yet or pick his replacement. As such, I think they likely get him some blind side protection in one of the top 2 LT's that are projected to go top-10 by many.

Jacksonville - I do not see them standing pat with Chad Henne. Whether Bortles is picked or not, I think they have to grab either Bridgewater or Manziel.

Cleveland - Campbell or Hanie? Again, one of the top-3 is still here no matter what.

Oakland - They trolled out Terelle Pryor last year, who is GARBAGE. If those top-3 QB's are gone, they actually could still reach for Carr here. If they don't, I could see them drafting Sammy Watkins. They otherwise have no weapons really for Pryor right now.

Atlanta - They're clearly sitting with Matt Ryan, but Sam Baker is gone (their LT). I don't see any way they don't get protection for Ryan, unless otherwise through free agency prior to the draft.

Tampa Bay - Mike Glennon seemed to come into his own last year and it's probably enough to keep his job UNLESS one of the top-3 fall here. Then I think they pull that trigger. Otherwise, Lovie Smith is a linebacker guy. Mack (provided that someone doesn't take him before hand) would in all likelihood be gone.

Minnesota - Yet another proven awful quarterback in Ponder. I could even see them reach for Carr if Oakland does not, but Peterson has already advocated trying to sign Michael Vick. We will see what happens there.

 

5 teams in the top-8 picks with terrible signal callers. 3 QB's in the draft that are projected first rounders with a potential for a 4th. The draft has always proven to be interesting with where teams reach (Bills last year) or trades that happen that are very much unanticipated. If there is a perceived drop in the perception of value of drafting a quarterback early, I would expect any of those 8 teams to try to trade down unless they're significantly higher on one guy over another. Personally, I'm dreading the possibility that the Bills draft Evans or Ebron in the first round. I just don't perceive the value to be there. Give me Mosely, Barr, or Dennard. To boot, I guess I'm afraid of drafting another average wide out early named Evans....LOL.