thewildrabbit Posted March 7, 2014 Posted March 7, 2014 There are two oddballs here in my view is OT Taylor Lewan who "wowed" scouts with some impressive numbers at the combine, as he could easily jump into the top 8. Plus, some mock drafts have QB Derek Carr going to the Vikings or Raiders, as they are both desperate for a franchise QB. I'll tell you right now that Lewan won't make it past the Giants at 12. Carr however could easily fall to the second round if no team in the top 8 takes him, unless a team trades up again in the first to grab him. Check out Bucky Brook's big board as Lewan is pegged at #8, and Mack is at #10. http://www.nfl.com/combine/story/0ap2000000329512/article/buckys-big-board-20-sammy-watkins-khalil-mack-rise-up
ganesh Posted March 7, 2014 Posted March 7, 2014 Everyone wanted the Bills to draft a QB high last year. And we did. Now everyone wants to draft another QB high. We keep expecting rookie QB's to walk on the field and be good instantly. It's not realistic. +1, especially when the coaching staff has clearly told everyone that EJ will be the starter going into training camp.
GunnerBill Posted March 7, 2014 Author Posted March 7, 2014 I googled "Geno smith number one pick". At this time last year the only ones who thought he might go number one were Andy Reid and...Geno Smith. I don't see the QBs dropping this year. Until Kansas City traded for Alex Smith Geno was being mocked to them all over the place.
Mr. WEO Posted March 7, 2014 Posted March 7, 2014 Until Kansas City traded for Alex Smith Geno was being mocked to them all over the place. The Reid reference was after they traded for Smith. After the combine and before the Smith trade, Luke Joekel was being mocked to KC "all over the place", not Smith.
GunnerBill Posted March 7, 2014 Author Posted March 7, 2014 The Reid reference was after they traded for Smith. After the combine and before the Smith trade, Luke Joekel was being mocked to KC "all over the place", not Smith. I'm afraid that is not my recollection.
KOKBILLS Posted March 7, 2014 Posted March 7, 2014 Everyone wanted the Bills to draft a QB high last year. And we did. Now everyone wants to draft another QB high. We keep expecting rookie QB's to walk on the field and be good instantly. It's not realistic. That's not the point I was trying to make...The point really had nothing to do with how the QB's will perform in their first year...The question was simple...If we had the QB depth charts of Houston, Jacksonville, Oakland, Minnesota, or Cleveland and we could Draft Bortles, Bridgewater, or Manziel...What do you think we would expect the Bills to do?
Kirby Jackson Posted March 7, 2014 Posted March 7, 2014 That's not the point I was trying to make...The point really had nothing to do with how the QB's will perform in their first year...The question was simple...If we had the QB depth charts of Houston, Jacksonville, Oakland, Minnesota, or Cleveland and we could Draft Bortles, Bridgewater, or Manziel...What do you think we would expect the Bills to do? I don't necessarily disagree but there are 4 elite players other than QB in this particular draft (Clowney, Robinson, Mack and Watkins). If you gave me a choice between AJ Green or someone that I think will end up as good as Ryan Tannehill (just throwing a name out there) I would think long and hard about it. That to me is the decision between someone like Watkins and Bortles. Is my team better adding Tannehill or Green? It is a tough debate for sure.
GunnerBill Posted March 7, 2014 Author Posted March 7, 2014 I wouldn't think about it for very long I'd take AJ Green, which is what the Bengals did when they could have gone for a Jake Locker... or a Christian Ponder. They took the view, as would I, that if you get the choice between an "elite" player or a Quarterback with enought questions to not entirely convince you then you take the elite guy. in the end the Quarterback they took in the second round has out performed Ponder and Locker, partly because he has had a top class weapon to throw to.
RyanC883 Posted March 7, 2014 Posted March 7, 2014 I don't think Cleveland takes a QB at 4. I believe they are very bullish on Hoyer. He looked pretty good last year until he got Kiko smashed. Imagine they take Watkins and pair him next to Josh Gordon? Look out! I agree. And this is why I could see QB's falling. Some draft experts don't see that much difference between the "top" QB's and someone like Carr or McCaron. So you get a guy like Watkins, Mack, Evans, Robinson, etc. in RD1, and then get a QB in RD2. I don't necessarily disagree but there are 4 elite players other than QB in this particular draft (Clowney, Robinson, Mack and Watkins). If you gave me a choice between AJ Green or someone that I think will end up as good as Ryan Tannehill (just throwing a name out there) I would think long and hard about it. That to me is the decision between someone like Watkins and Bortles. Is my team better adding Tannehill or Green? It is a tough debate for sure. AJ Green. No doubt. Especially if you can get a Tannehill talent (or better) in round 2. AJ Green is a stud, and he has Dalton. If the Bengals were smart, they would draft a "falling" QB to challenge Dalton. I wouldn't think about it for very long I'd take AJ Green, which is what the Bengals did when they could have gone for a Jake Locker... or a Christian Ponder. They took the view, as would I, that if you get the choice between an "elite" player or a Quarterback with enought questions to not entirely convince you then you take the elite guy. in the end the Quarterback they took in the second round has out performed Ponder and Locker, partly because he has had a top class weapon to throw to. Exactly. Put weapons around a young QB. He will perform well. although I think Dalton's ceiling has been reached, and it's average. Bengals should look to improve in this draft.
1billsfan Posted March 7, 2014 Posted March 7, 2014 I wouldn't think about it for very long I'd take AJ Green, which is what the Bengals did when they could have gone for a Jake Locker... or a Christian Ponder. They took the view, as would I, that if you get the choice between an "elite" player or a Quarterback with enought questions to not entirely convince you then you take the elite guy. in the end the Quarterback they took in the second round has out performed Ponder and Locker, partly because he has had a top class weapon to throw to. At least with Manuel the Bills still don't know what they have and hopefully they can surround him with a real threat like their big WR Green. The Bengals and their fans are stuck with an average QB who shrinks in the playoffs. Their fans didn't even bother to sell out their home playoff game because they knew Dalton would blow it for them.
thebandit27 Posted March 7, 2014 Posted March 7, 2014 I'm starting to come around to Kirby's way of thinking, which involves Watkins going much higher than I originally thought...I'm thinking (right now anyway) that the top of the draft looks like this: 1. Hou - Clowney 2. St.L - Watkins 3. Jax - Mack 4. Cle - Manziel 5. Oak - Robinson 6. Atl - Matthews 7. TB - Lewan 8. Min - Bridgewater That leaves the following options for Buffalo (in order of what I think they're wont to do): A. Draft BPA, which IMO boils down to Mike Evans, Aaron Donald, Calvin Pryor, Eric Ebron, or Justin Gilbert B. Draft a big target, which is kind of a sub-set of Option A, with the choices narrowed down to Evans and Ebron C. Trade back with a team (i.e. Tennessee) that is in love with Bortles
KOKBILLS Posted March 7, 2014 Posted March 7, 2014 I'm starting to come around to Kirby's way of thinking, which involves Watkins going much higher than I originally thought...I'm thinking (right now anyway) that the top of the draft looks like this: 1. Hou - Clowney 2. St.L - Watkins 3. Jax - Mack 4. Cle - Manziel 5. Oak - Robinson 6. Atl - Matthews 7. TB - Lewan 8. Min - Bridgewater That leaves the following options for Buffalo (in order of what I think they're wont to do): A. Draft BPA, which IMO boils down to Mike Evans, Aaron Donald, Calvin Pryor, Eric Ebron, or Justin Gilbert B. Draft a big target, which is kind of a sub-set of Option A, with the choices narrowed down to Evans and Ebron C. Trade back with a team (i.e. Tennessee) that is in love with Bortles I just can't imagine Jacksonville passing on all 3 QB's when they can have their pick...I think that scenario is really unlikely...
Kirby Jackson Posted March 7, 2014 Posted March 7, 2014 I just can't imagine Jacksonville passing on all 3 QB's when they can have their pick...I think that scenario is really unlikely... Cleveland could pass on QB though. It's possible that only 2 are off the board.
thebandit27 Posted March 7, 2014 Posted March 7, 2014 I just can't imagine Jacksonville passing on all 3 QB's when they can have their pick...I think that scenario is really unlikely... I understand that viewpoint, and I'm wrestling with it a bit myself. I just look at last year, when the overall level of talent at QB was considered to be the lowest in some time (when, in actuality, it's quite similar to this year's class), and I see that teams like Jax, Oak, Phi, NYJ, and Buffalo all passed on their chance to have the pick of the litter at QB. The only difference I see between last year's draft and this year's is that the level of talent of the non-QBs at the top of this class appears to be much, much higher than it was last year. Cleveland could pass on QB though. It's possible that only 2 are off the board. I'm thinking only 2 go in the top 8...one will be to either Jax or Cleveland, the other to Minnesota...wouldn't shock me at all.
GunnerBill Posted March 7, 2014 Author Posted March 7, 2014 At least with Manuel the Bills still don't know what they have and hopefully they can surround him with a real threat like their big WR Green. The Bengals and their fans are stuck with an average QB who shrinks in the playoffs. Their fans didn't even bother to sell out their home playoff game because they knew Dalton would blow it for them. I agree with that. I'm not a Dalton fan... I was just making the point on do you take a guy who you are pretty sure will be elite in his position or reach on a Quarterback because you need a Quarterback? In the end the team that took the elite weapon and then a "ceiling" Quarterback later are ahead of the teams that pulled the trigger on question mark QBs in round 1. If there had been an AJ Green style player on the board at 8 last year and the Bills had left him sitting there to trade back for EJ I would have been very miffed. I was comfortable with passing on Tavon Austin.
KOKBILLS Posted March 7, 2014 Posted March 7, 2014 I understand that viewpoint, and I'm wrestling with it a bit myself. I just look at last year, when the overall level of talent at QB was considered to be the lowest in some time (when, in actuality, it's quite similar to this year's class), and I see that teams like Jax, Oak, Phi, NYJ, and Buffalo all passed on their chance to have the pick of the litter at QB. The only difference I see between last year's draft and this year's is that the level of talent of the non-QBs at the top of this class appears to be much, much higher than it was last year. I'm thinking only 2 go in the top 8...one will be to either Jax or Cleveland, the other to Minnesota...wouldn't shock me at all. Well... No offense but I think you're WAY over-thinking this if you really believe the bolded comment... By the time the Combine was over last year there was REAL, and I mean real widespread doubt that any QB was worthy of a 1st round grade...This year there are 3 prospects that almost universally have Top 15 grades...And a couple others that are considered borderline 1st-2nd rounders (which normally means they will squeeze their way into the bottom of the 1st)...And this is a FAR deeper Draft than last year...Add to that you have 5 QB needy teams in the Top 8 and I think the chances all 3 go in that top 8 are pretty good...Though I admit Manziel could slide out because he's not going to be for everybody...
thebandit27 Posted March 7, 2014 Posted March 7, 2014 Well... No offense but I think you're WAY over-thinking this if you really believe the bolded comment... By the time the Combine was over last year there was REAL, and I mean real widespread doubt that any QB was worthy of a 1st round grade...This year there are 3 prospects that almost universally have Top 15 grades...And a couple others that are considered borderline 1st-2nd rounders (which normally means they will squeeze their way into the bottom of the 1st)...And this is a FAR deeper Draft than last year...Add to that you have 5 QB needy teams in the Top 8 and I think the chances all 3 go in that top 8 are pretty good...Though I admit Manziel could slide out because he's not going to be for everybody... None taken...I make room for all possibilities on draft day...it'll be very interesting to see.
KOKBILLS Posted March 7, 2014 Posted March 7, 2014 None taken...I make room for all possibilities on draft day...it'll be very interesting to see. It will be for certain... This draft is so deep with talent in the top 10 outside of QB it is going to test the resolve of a few GM's...No question about it...But I keep going back to the fact that if you don't have a QB, it's any...and I mean any NFL teams first priority... Houston is the perfect example...They have their pick of the litter...They already have a decent Defense that could return to dominance with a little tweaking...As it was they were the 7th Defense overall, and the 3rd ranked Defense vs the pass last year...But obviously their Offense was a mixed bag, and their QB cost them more than one game...The Texans roster has some serious talent, especially on Defense, and there is no way they expect to be picking this high again any time soon...You have the rarest of rare situations...You have the ability to Draft 1st and take any QB you want, when QB is your #1 need, and arguably there are three QB's to choose from that could be taken at #1 overall...So you want to Draft Clowney? Why? You pick again at #33...There will be plenty of D-Line talent available at #33 if you want one...There will not be a QB there like Bridgewater or Bortles or Manziel...I don't know...Maybe it's because I'm not 100% sold on Clowney's desire...I think it's nuts for Houston to consider Clowney over one of the QB's... I just think in this league when you have an opportunity like this you have to take the QB...If the Bills were in a similar situation and they took Clowney over one of the QB's there would be an absolute meltdown in Buffalo...And it's not like they don't pay attention to their NFL football in Houston... But who knows...We'll see I guess...
chris heff Posted March 7, 2014 Posted March 7, 2014 (edited) The best thing for the Bills would be for three or four QBs to go in the first eight. This is based on my believe that no matter what the Bills will not take a QB at nine. So I seriously hope that QBs don't start dropping. Edited March 7, 2014 by chris heff
thebandit27 Posted March 7, 2014 Posted March 7, 2014 (edited) It will be for certain... This draft is so deep with talent in the top 10 outside of QB it is going to test the resolve of a few GM's...No question about it...But I keep going back to the fact that if you don't have a QB, it's any...and I mean any NFL teams first priority... Houston is the perfect example...They have their pick of the litter...They already have a decent Defense that could return to dominance with a little tweaking...As it was they were the 7th Defense overall, and the 3rd ranked Defense vs the pass last year...But obviously their Offense was a mixed bag, and their QB cost them more than one game...The Texans roster has some serious talent, especially on Defense, and there is no way they expect to be picking this high again any time soon...You have the rarest of rare situations...You have the ability to Draft 1st and take any QB you want, when QB is your #1 need, and arguably there are three QB's to choose from that could be taken at #1 overall...So you want to Draft Clowney? Why? You pick again at #33...There will be plenty of D-Line talent available at #33 if you want one...There will not be a QB there like Bridgewater or Bortles or Manziel...I don't know...Maybe it's because I'm not 100% sold on Clowney's desire...I think it's nuts for Houston to consider Clowney over one of the QB's... I just think in this league when you have an opportunity like this you have to take the QB...If the Bills were in a similar situation and they took Clowney over one of the QB's there would be an absolute meltdown in Buffalo...And it's not like they don't pay attention to their NFL football in Houston... But who knows...We'll see I guess... For me personally, if I'm Houston and I have the #1 pick, I don't expect to be picking there again any time soon. My goal, in that case, is to get a once-in-a-generation-type player. If the level of talent in the draft is like last year, where it's just generally lower, then I find it easier to take a QB #1 overall, because--as you correctly stated--it is always the #1 priority. In a year like this one, I would struggle to do that, given that there are 4 players (Clowney, Robinson, Mack, and Watkins) that IMO fit the once-in-a-generation label, and none of them are QBs. While I have no idea if Rick Smith and Bill O'Brien will agree with my thought process, I can only say that my opinion--were I in their shoes--would be to draft a guy like Clowney/Robinson/Mack, thinking that in a worst-case scenario I can draft a guy like Garropolo in the 2nd/3rd round, and--if it doesn't work out--I can go after my franchise guy next year. Edited March 7, 2014 by thebandit27
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