How might you decide what Byrd (or any other player) is “worth”?

[maryland-bills-fan]

Let me talk about what a player “costs” or is “worth” to a team in the NFL, in order to help people and me get some perspective on what is coming down with Byrd. There are a lot of Bills fans, who consider the cost of Byrd to be only his salary, and that is being paid by some old cranky billionaire who they don’t care about. Let me propose that for a player that you get via trade the following as the first cut approximation. (Comment: at some stage you have to put a dollar cost on everything in order to balance things- that get hard to do but is possible.) If we trade Byrd the cost to His new home team is:

“COST” = SALARY + (draft picks+player+cash) + {effect on cap space} +{effect on salary equality within team)

A lot of our ByrdBird lovers only consider the salary thing and forget the draft pick part. Percy Harvin (not a pro bowler) got traded from the Vikes, but gave up a 2013 1^st & 7^th pick, as well as a mid-round 2014 pick. Alex Smith (QB) got traded from 49ers to SF and the draft picks were two #2’s 2013 and 2014.

 

Now the thing that Byrd and his agent have their eye on is that if the new team can pick up the player without the (draft picks+ player+cash) part of the equation, then they can pay more. Parker (Byrd’s agent) wants to cash in this money and run. The protection the league offers the original team (the franchise/transition player bit) is necessary (along with the cap system and the drafting order in inverse order of W/L record) to keep a competitive balance in the league, maintain fan loyalty and to prevent big city teams from being able to outbuy small teams like the NY Yankees used to do in the 30’s, 40’s and 50’s. Part of what makes this work is that the expectation is that a franchised player is expected to be a decent person and play for a team when he is franchised. Byrd has demonstrated that he will not but rather will sandbag (at least 5 games off and no preseason for him!) so this falls apart. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out!

 

Now why should a team consider any rights to a player beyond holding him by salary size alone. Well one reason is that the NFL is a league and really a single business that holds football games where both teams have a good chance to win and sports fans are interested in the tension of the competition. It is not a dance or opera, where the beauty of the performance is what brings the people in. The cost to teams for getting to the point where it owns contracts for good players is considerable and salary is only one element.

 

COSTS= salary + draft picks + salary while player is developing + (draft picks & salary of players who got cut) + (facilities, coaches, scouts, trainers for team).

 

 

 

It is true that the NFL gets away with low costs in early player development compared to baseball, where the minor leagues have to be supported and players developed to much higher skill levels over 3-6 years (at least) before they are ready for the “bigs”. But this still has to be factored into the business model, or we may as well just have a fantasy draft every year by highest bid salary instead of the existing NFL.

 

 

 

As to Byrd, reportedly he was offered a deal something like $30M over 3 years, which may or not be true. It is true that the Bills had the absolute legal option of a $8.3M 1 year franchise contract but will probably not pull the trigger on this. Remember this would give Byrd 120% or top 5 average money and let other teams (non-exclusive) try to work out a deal with him that the Bills could match or let him go for 2 first round picks. Lets be honest for the reasons why this would not be a good idea. First, nobody is going to pay Byrd more than $9 million and give up two first round picks. Then the Bills would but stuck with Byrd and Byrd (the scumball) would not honor the contract and would pull another “my feet hurt” routine. The franchise salary is fully guaranteed and Byrd has made it plain that he would refuse to play any more of the season that would be necessary to demonstrate to other teams that he was not injured. A second reason why the Bills shouldn’t franchise him is that Byrd frankly is not all that good a safety,,,,,but I’ll but that in another post.

Edited March 3, 2014 by maryland-bills-fan

[MyHorseAteTheKid]

So sick of seeing our top players leave the team with little or no compensation...

[maryland-bills-fan]

So sick of seeing our top players leave the team with little or no compensation...

I am as well. I understand that when we shopped Byrd last year, the best offer was to pick up his salary and give us a high 4th round pick. There is still the option for us to tag him and work out a trade, well short of what the standard "two 1st round picks" in the restricted franchise player rule. Have we had anybody come knocking? You would think if Byrd's salary demands (I'm sure he has made them known unofficially and illegally to other teams) were in line with his abilities, that there would be at least one team wanting to be first in line to snap him up. As it is now, the Bills will only get a high 4th round pick and that only if they come out behind in the gain/loss of FA's this year. We tag him, your work out a deal with his agent and if it works, give us a third. We haven't even gotten that, last year or this year, so that is what the market is saying. Don't feel to bad. San Fran let Goldson walk in a similar situation and got nothing back.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

So sick of seeing our top players leave the team with little or no compensation...

 

This is the game. The top players are the ones that want to go to free agency to drive up their price tag. Every team suffers from this problem. Watch Seattle fall apart in 2-3 years when the core of this team gets ready to re-up

[B-Man]

Let me talk about what a player “costs” or is “worth” to a team in the NFL,

 

 

Very good analysis mbf

 

The other part of a player's worth to a team (that many have touched on) is the position that he plays.

 

The Safety's effect on the game is important ...................but not 8 figure important

[Luxy312]

When all is said and done, the situation with Byrd can be reduced to one issue. His agent. Parker is a bottom feeding scumbag that notoriously over values players that he's working for. Remember Jason Peters? He had a grand total of one good year for the Bills before Parker wanted the coffers emptied to pay him. Peters has been a good player, but not as good as the contract he received. Byrd was offered a deal that would pay him $30 million over the first 3 years. While I don't know if there were other years on the deal or what the whole deal was worth, that type of money is in line with the highest paid safeties in the game and yet it's still not enough. Reports suggest right now that Aaron Williams will be signed for about $5 million. I ask the question of whether anyone really believes that Byrd is worth more than twice that amount and more importantly plays more than twice as well. Personally, I just don't see it. At this point, my vote would be to let him walk and let some other sucker pay him. If the rumors are in fact true, let him play for Tampa Bay and lose a couple more seasons...

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Don't we have an analytics department?

 

And, can't they run a basic model of what makes the most financial/football sense to do?

[PS 56]

Don't we have an analytics department?

 

And, can't they run a basic model of what makes the most financial/football sense to do?

What an absolutely great point. I am sure that this dept. has had a lot to due with our bargaining position regarding Byrd. There comes a time when both sides have to say "enough" and move on. I think the Bills have reached that point with Byrd. Let him test the waters elsewhere. If he wants off the team let him go.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

What an absolutely great point. I am sure that this dept. has had a lot to due with our bargaining position regarding Byrd. There comes a time when both sides have to say "enough" and move on. I think the Bills have reached that point with Byrd. Let him test the waters elsewhere. If he wants off the team let him go.

 

If they have run the numbers and reached a reasoned conclusion on this, I fully support the move.

 

I could see an analytics guy ascribing values and then assessing factors like salary, cap hit, likelihood of trade/trade value, likelihood of signing/Byrd sitting out first 6 games, and value of potential compensatory pick, and saying, "Let him walk."

[Ronin]

How might you decide what Byrd (or any other player) is “worth”?

 

 

You raise a very good question, however in your response you neglect to mention just about everything that isn't money related, such as, and primarily, chemistry.

 

This is where IMO the distinctions between the NE Patriots of the world and the Bills of the world get made.

 

Besides merely money, you have to look at several other key things, again, primarily being chemistry. What happens if Byrd is removed from the secondary? Tough to tell based on this last season because Pettine implemented a sack-first at all other costs Defense that failed miserably elsewhere and contributed to netting us the same 6-10 we had last season and about where we've been for years.

 

Also, you have to look at the gap in the step down at the same position. Who takes his place? Searcy? That's an enormous step down. If the replacement were an up-and-comer then no problem, but as it is, for a secondary that's already weak, I dunno, but looks like trouble if you ask me, particularly since more than likely with Pettine gone the F7 won't be nearly as focused on pass-rush and will have to refocus on the entire D, giving the secondary much more to do for their money.

 

 

These are things that this team's braintrust simply fails to pick up on.

 

What an absolutely great point. I am sure that this dept. has had a lot to due with our bargaining position regarding Byrd. There comes a time when both sides have to say "enough" and move on. I think the Bills have reached that point with Byrd. Let him test the waters elsewhere. If he wants off the team let him go.

 

I think you guys are all overlooking the real reasons, IMO Byrd simply doesn't want to play for an organization that screwed him over last year as it were and one that's a losing organization.

 

Is that so far beyond the realm of possibility here? I know that if I'm a player I don't want to play in Buffalo, I want to play for a team with a legitimate shot at making the playoffs, one with a winning, not losing, culture, and one the at least has a respectable chance of winning a championship.

 

Byrd's 27 and probably telling himself that whatever team he lands on will be his last shot at a title, so he'd better make the right choice.

 

We all assume that Buffalo's a great place to be out of either nostalgic based reasons or because we grew up in WNY/UNY and are Bills fans. But the reality is quite the opposite. Buffalo has turned into an Oakland or Cleveland whether we like it or not.

[HamSandwhich]

If they have run the numbers and reached a reasoned conclusion on this, I fully support the move.

 

I could see an analytics guy ascribing values and then assessing factors like salary, cap hit, likelihood of trade/trade value, likelihood of signing/Byrd sitting out first 6 games, and value of potential compensatory pick, and saying, "Let him walk."

 

I wonder how analytics access with the hike in the salary cap. This means more teams have more money to spend. IMO, that makes it more likely other teams will overspend. Perhaps, 12 mil for a top safety is going to become the norm rather than the exception. We'll be left in the dust because we didn't factor that in or undervalued the threat. We'll see I guess

[Hplarrm]

When all is said and done, the situation with Byrd can be reduced to one issue. His agent. Parker is a bottom feeding scumbag that notoriously over values players that he's working for. Remember Jason Peters? He had a grand total of one good year for the Bills before Parker wanted the coffers emptied to pay him. Peters has been a good player, but not as good as the contract he received. Byrd was offered a deal that would pay him $30 million over the first 3 years. While I don't know if there were other years on the deal or what the whole deal was worth, that type of money is in line with the highest paid safeties in the game and yet it's still not enough. Reports suggest right now that Aaron Williams will be signed for about $5 million. I ask the question of whether anyone really believes that Byrd is worth more than twice that amount and more importantly plays more than twice as well. Personally, I just don't see it. At this point, my vote would be to let him walk and let some other sucker pay him. If the rumors are in fact true, let him play for Tampa Bay and lose a couple more seasons...

 

Not so fast in laying the "blame" on the agent because in the end he is an AGENT for adults like Peters or Byrd. Sure Parker is a common denominator but do you really believe if Parker were gone it would not be some other Drew Rosenshark or some other AGENT doing their player's bidding?

 

Your description of Parker's actions as Peters' AGENT are actually a testimonial for him IF his job is to

 

1. Maximize his clients control- Parker negotiated a situation where Peters got to survey the NFL for the best deal he would sign. Sounds like he did the job Peter's hired him to do.

 

2. Maximize Peter's pay- The final contract was all Peter's directed Parker to demand. Sounds like he did the job Peter's hired him to do.

 

The other common denominator in the

 

 

 

 

 

peter's/Byrd/Bills nego is the Bills. If you are lookin' fir fault I think it makes more sense to look at the Bill's mismanaging their team building rather than blaming an AGENT for doing his job with demonstrated success.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Luxy312]

 

You understand very little as it pertains to the contract game. NFL players have very little to do with any aspect of negotiation or making demands. That comes directly from agents and how they measure the market. They lead the show and not the other way around. There are agents that are easier to deal with than others and Parker is one of the worst in that regard. Track record doesn't lie. There's a huge difference as well between getting the best deal (Parker's job) and a player actually being worth the deal they got. Peters was not worth the contract he received and what Parker is asking for for Byrd is the same to me. Just not worth it.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

 

I wonder how analytics access with the hike in the salary cap. This means more teams have more money to spend. IMO, that makes it more likely other teams will overspend. Perhaps, 12 mil for a top safety is going to become the norm rather than the exception. We'll be left in the dust because we didn't factor that in or undervalued the threat. We'll see I guess

It is done on a % basis not necessarily a number.

[PromoTheRobot]

The rule of thumb with any Bills free agent is a) he's the best player in the league b) he's worth any amount he wants c) he doesn't want to play here.

 

PTR

[maryland-bills-fan]

I still think the situation is as follows. Byrd wants north of $10 million a year, guaranteed and multi-year. He sat out about of third of last year with a questionable "injury" that can not be proven or disproven. His agent, the Bills and most of the league (not necessarily the fans) know that if the Bills franchise him this year, he would sit out 12 games this year (my feetsies hurt) and then play in the last six games to show other teams that he is healthy. He would also get absolute full pay. (The Bills would get nothing other then maybe the satisfaction of playing him $9M but putting him on IR for the year). ...................Sorry, but when you are dealing with scumbags, sometimes they win and you are screwed.................... I think Byrd is a second tier free safety and is worth only about $5-6M a year at best. He freelances and lets TE get open down the middle, WR to have little help on many long passes, does not hit hard or scare WR's into short-arming on catches and gets some showy interceptions by flooding already covered receivers to pick up cheap INT or fumbles after other people's tackles and strips. He can not cover the other teams #1 or #2 receivers one-on-one, nor was he asked to. He thinks that he will make a giant payday by shopping himself free without any trade compensation. Maybe he is right. One think that I know is that he did not make much of a difference in our record when he played or not last year and the 67 year old Leohard had as many interceptions. ..............Let's get over Mr. Drama Queen and use the extra $5-7M to make a deal that a veteran ROT (Streiff?) can not turn down. Then we can use the second round pick to get a good LOG and the o-line is settled and a source of superiority for the next 5 years. Our first round pick can then be used for a toy, like a true #1 receiver or the best tight end weapon for EJ. ...............Which way do the Bills come out a stronger team?................Its a no brainer, unless your Bird only get excited for Byrd.

[Hplarrm]

 

 

You understand very little as it pertains to the contract game. NFL players have very little to do with any aspect of negotiation or making demands. That comes directly from agents and how they measure the market. They lead the show and not the other way around. There are agents that are easier to deal with than others and Parker is one of the worst in that regard. Track record doesn't lie. There's a huge difference as well between getting the best deal (Parker's job) and a player actually being worth the deal they got. Peters was not worth the contract he received and what Parker is asking for for Byrd is the same to me. Just not worth it.

 

You are correct that track record does not lie.

 

Parker's track record for Peters is that

 

1. He maximized his clients flexibility in that he negotiated the Bills into letting him go anywhere he chose to sign a contract

 

2. He got Peters a contract that far exceeded his abilities.

 

It did not meet the desires of us Bills fans but you are the one being naïve about how the real world and contract negotiations work if you do not realize that Parker did what Peters paid him to do.

 

The problem here is that the Bills braintrust mismanaged the interests of fans (which again you are being naïve if you do not realize Mr. Ralph perceives his interests as different from yours and mine) by not signing Peters to a longer term contract for a much smaller amount than his agent intelligently got for him later.

 

Littman and the gang were smart enough to sign Peters to bigger bucks for a few more years when he proved on the field that he deserved starting lineman money when he made the jump from talented but miscreant TE to OL starter.

 

The mistake was that when he proved good enough to not only be an OL starter but an LY starter, the braintrust was pennywise and pound foolish in not giving him another raise to Pro Bowl making LT levels.

 

The Bills appear to have made a routine out of not showing players as much money as the rules allow in some cases and they lose but overpaying badly for others (Kelsay for example).

 

Blaming agents for doing what their clients want is simply wrongsighted.

 

In fact, this is representative of a general NFL issue. The owners chose a system where they get the NCAA (and your and my tax dollars for state schools) to pay for training their youngsters, but the eventual downside for them is that they do not get ownership of this talent until these athletes are 21 or older. This does not matter for most of these steroid infused athletes who are trained to say how high and what color as young athletes.

 

However, there is a talented tenth of young athletes who were the Gene Upshaws, the Troy Vincents, etc who were mature enough to lead the NFLPA to win the rights of partnership in this business.

 

Blaming Parker is as dumb as blaming Littman.