maryland-bills-fan Posted March 1, 2014 Posted March 1, 2014 I’m going to discuss first, the needs of the Bills in the draft, then the players at the top of the draft and finally, what I think the Bills draft strategy should be. ============================================================================= Assuming EJ will be allowed to develop and that Marlin Briscoe (err I mean Thad Lewis) is thought of as a good backup, we will not be in the QB search in the 2014 draft. The strategic choices that Marrone has taken as to the flavor of the offense and defense is pretty clear. The defense is going to have a fierce attacking pass rush with a lot of stunts, disguised formations and people flying in from odd places. The cornerbacks will do close early coverage to prevent the QB from releasing the ball quickly, which will give the pass rush time to sack, knock-down or flush the QB. Safeties will be safeties with well-defined support responsibilities. There will be holes in the front 4 because “gap control” is less important than penetration and disruption. The linebackers will have a lot of unscripted holes to after runners and escaped running quarterbacks. Speed and instinct will be at a premium for the linebackers. Where we were weakest last year was against the run (because of the lack of gap control) and against downfield tight ends (who outran slower linebackers and were not well watched by the safeties). The offense is going to depend upon controlling the line of scrimmage and getting a lot of touches for the running backs. EJ will not be asked to pass his way down the field, but the passes will be mainly medium distance and mixed in with the runs. The speedsters on the team does give the Bills the option to go 3 vertical routes with superior speed to punish defenses that start to crowd the box. We were not successful at controlling the running game last year, although we kept trying. Pears at ROT and Legarsky at LOG are below average players and have to be replaced. If we can roadgrade block from tackle to tackle, then all these other options become effective and we have an offense. Urbik is only adequate at ROG, but might look better with a very good player to his right. Asper, McClain and Unga are okay development players and have the needed size, but right now they should only be counted on for depth. A fast, pass catching, seam busting TE is always nice, but now that is a luxury rather than a requirement. The Bills pick 9th and there are a certain number of players who will not be available to them, which reduces the options considerably. First there is DE Crowley, (1) who will be gone, then there are adequate starting QB’s who have 5-6 teams wanting shots at them (2), (3), & (4). There are 3 good offensive tackles and for sure at least two of them will also be taken (5) & (6). Let’s just forget about these guys and let those teams scramble and trade. There are two more spots before the Bills pick and I think that the best 6 players available there are Mack (LB), Evans (the top big WR), the third Offensive Tackle, Ebron (a big speedy tight end), Gilbert (CB) and Barr (3-4 OLB). I think that Mack and Evans are the best of the lot. If Mack is there, we should take him in a heartbeat. If forced to choose from the short list I would go with the OT and shore up that position. I would expect Evans to go to Oakland, but if he is there I would like to see the Bills trade the pick for him and move down to pick up another 2nd or third round pick. The rest of this short list has players that other teams would move up for as well and trades should also be entertained. What I would like to see is the Bills move down 5-7 places and take CJ Mosely a ILB with speed and instincts to pair up with Alonso. This would solidify the hole in the front 7 and give us a awesome defense. I find mixed predictions for where he would be drafted. He does look like Alsoso. In the second round our own pick should be for the best available G or OT. Moses (Virginia), Richardson(Tenn) or Gabe Jackson(MissStat) Sula-Filo UCLA) are players who might be available. By this means we fix the two biggest problems on the team, with players of value at the position. Not sexy, not clever, just identify the problem and address it. There are a couple of wild cards in the mix here as well. One is the spare “change” that we would get from a modest trade down (maybe a 3rd rounder) and the other is the Byrd situation. In my opinion, we don’t need the top free safety or even one of the top 7 free safeties and especially don’t need to overpay for him and make him the second highest salary on the team. We should sign or franchise him and them attempt to trade him for what the market will bear. I would be happy with a low 2nd round pick this and next year. That would be a salary dump and should be immediately turned over to resigning somebody who won’t take 5 game vacation.
Pete Posted March 1, 2014 Posted March 1, 2014 Mr.?...Not sure... Aleister? How the heck is he supposed to help the Bills? Incantations?
KOKBILLS Posted March 1, 2014 Posted March 1, 2014 Aleister? How the heck is he supposed to help the Bills? Incantations? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWdfDsLvm9I Don't discount the need for incantations for this team Pete...That falls under the area of anything can help...
Tipster19 Posted March 1, 2014 Posted March 1, 2014 I'm sure he meant Clowney and I appreciate the time and effort that was put into this post. Thanks Bills' fan but although I love this time of the year, all the predraft speculation and such, I sure hope that we don't trade down. I think and want the best OT available. We don't even have adequate starters let alone back-ups for rotation and injury purposes. We have a decent foundation but we're still far from being a good team. I realize that it's been stated that we're not going to be big players in free agency but I do feel that we need to add a good player or two from it. If you look at the average age of our roster you'll notice that we're an awfully young team, we could stand some veteran leadership.
NewEra Posted March 1, 2014 Posted March 1, 2014 Did you forget about Sammy Watkins? Or is he too small?
thewildrabbit Posted March 1, 2014 Posted March 1, 2014 I'm sure he meant Clowney and I appreciate the time and effort that was put into this post. Thanks Bills' fan but although I love this time of the year, all the predraft speculation and such, I sure hope that we don't trade down. I think and want the best OT available. We don't even have adequate starters let alone back-ups for rotation and injury purposes. We have a decent foundation but we're still far from being a good team. I realize that it's been stated that we're not going to be big players in free agency but I do feel that we need to add a good player or two from it. If you look at the average age of our roster you'll notice that we're an awfully young team, we could stand some veteran leadership. Man, if only more Bills fans thought this way! I'm just glad there are others that think like I do. The Bills finally drafted a QB with the first #1 pick and then fail to protect him properly. The O line 28th against the pass rush, 108 hits, 48 sacks.
thebandit27 Posted March 1, 2014 Posted March 1, 2014 (edited) I'm closer to the OP in that I believe OL can wait (although I'm fine if they spend FA $$ on a LG or RT). If you look at the breakdown of sack types that Football Outsiders did, the Bills gave up the 6th lowest percentage of sacks in the NFL due to beaten blocks. They gave up far more sacks due to QB confusion and unopen targets (which according to the article includes sacks that were the QB's fault--which Buffalo had the 2nd highest percentage in the league): http://www.footballoutsiders.com/under-pressure/2013/under-pressure-sacks-confusion Indeed, the sack issues were largely on the QBs last season (all 3 of the QBs, not just EJ). Yes, the OL needs to be upgraded; I prefer the OPs plan of LB early followed by pass catcher, then fill in OL depth in the 3rd/4th where it makes more sense IMO Edited March 1, 2014 by thebandit27
maryland-bills-fan Posted March 1, 2014 Author Posted March 1, 2014 A couple of things. One is that we are looking for a not-typical linebacker. Most of the attention these days is on somebody who is an edge rusher and we have that covered with our front 4 or 5. We are also not looking for somebody who stays in a defined gap and takes on blockers. Our stunting, pressure pass rush will leave opening is unexpected spots and we need somebody with smarts and speed to cover a lot of territory. So we can get along without one the splashy edge rushing OLB and CJ appears to have that capability. There are likely a bunch of other guys that I and most of us don't know about who could do this job.............. A second issue is that we gotta gotta gotta get a big goloot at right tackle to knock defensive linemen on their kister. That will let Spiller get outside and also let him run inside. We did almost nothing outside the right tackle in running last year......A third is that RB's and WR can be found in lower rounds and we actually have a decent young core. They will look much better if EJ is secure in the pocket when he does pass.
Trader Posted March 2, 2014 Posted March 2, 2014 I like the trade down part. Mosley is my least favorite option. The reason is that he has none of Alonso's durability and all of his weakness (plural). I think the goal is to move Alonso to the weak side and get a stouter more cerebral guy in the middle -that is not Mosley. Although he might be smart enough he certainly is not thick enough. Alonso's weakness is that he overruns the play sometimes and he is not thick enough to take on blockers and physical running backs.
Rhode Island Red Posted March 2, 2014 Posted March 2, 2014 MD Bills Fan, Posts / threads like this are why I lurk in the shadows here at TBD; great stuff, thanks to OP and others...
boyst Posted March 2, 2014 Posted March 2, 2014 Thanks for the stuff OP! But, if we do draft a QB, when do we? When should we? Should we even?!
thewildrabbit Posted March 2, 2014 Posted March 2, 2014 The offense is going to depend upon controlling the line of scrimmage and getting a lot of touches for the running backs. EJ will not be asked to pass his way down the field, but the passes will be mainly medium distance and mixed in with the runs. The speedsters on the team does give the Bills the option to go 3 vertical routes with superior speed to punish defenses that start to crowd the box. We were not successful at controlling the running game last year, although we kept trying. Pears at ROT and Legarsky at LOG are below average players and have to be replaced. If we can roadgrade block from tackle to tackle, then all these other options become effective and we have an offense. Urbik is only adequate at ROG, but might look better with a very good player to his right. Asper, McClain and Unga are okay development players and have the needed size, but right now they should only be counted on for depth. A fast, pass catching, seam busting TE is always nice, but now that is a luxury rather than a requirement. To back up that bolded part the Bills were 25th in three and out percentage, and even tho they were the #2 rushing team in the NFL they graded at 16th in run blocking. The Bills were 31st in converting 1st downs, and only Jacksonville was worse. They only had 10 drives that lasted 5 min or longer all season. While I agree with the premise of this post, I'm not 100% ready to believe that this off season the Bills will take the appropriate steps to build that O line properly. For whatever reason this ball club puts a very low priority on the skill level required to make the team if its an O line player. Case in point, The starting LG, and his backup were so bad that they were outright released by week 6 last year. The player brought in to back up the center position graded as the worst player on a bad 2012 Steelers O line where he graded a (-26.0)! So the Bills knew what they were getting when they signed him, and did it anyway. I'm with you, as I would love to see the Bills build a road grading O line from tackle to tackle with some elite players on that line. The problem is, everyone wants a top O line and yet they don't want to use top draft picks to obtain them. They have drafted 6 O linemen under Buddy Nix since (2010) Ed Wang in the 5th, Kyle Calloway in the 7th. (2011) Chris Hairston in the 4th. (2012)Cordy Glenn in the 2d, Zerbie Sanders in the 5th, Mark Asper in the 6th. The only player to make it as a starter, and solidify a position was Cordy Glenn. The Bills may get lucky again with a #2 or #3 pick for a top OG, OT. I would prefer them to go all out in building that line this year by drafting an OT in the first at #9 Robinson, Matthews, Lewan, and if all three are gone then trade back to pick up Zack Martin while getting an extra #2 to draft an OG & TE. JMO
Johnny Hammersticks Posted March 2, 2014 Posted March 2, 2014 I like Matthews and Robinson (assuming Mack is gone). #9 is too early for Lewan IMO. I'd go with Ebron if Mack, Matthews, and Robinson are gone. A QB's best friend is a nasty TE, and Ebron looks like he is going to be special. Come right back in round 2 and draft either best OT or best WR. Obviously trading back a few spots (picking up a 2 or 3) and getting Ebron would be great, but I'm not counting on that. Here would my ideal first 4 rounds: 1. Eric Ebron TE UNC 2. Antonio Richardson OT Tennessee 3. Chris Borland ILB Wisconsin 4. Martavis Bryant WR Clemson
maryland-bills-fan Posted March 2, 2014 Author Posted March 2, 2014 Aha! But what you haven't remembered is that Marrone played offensive line at 'Cuse, played offensive line a few years in the NFL and then coached parts or the offensive line from 1992 to 2008 or so. Some coach go to bed dreaming of throwing touchdown passes. Marrone dreams about a sweet trap block. We will start drafting guys like Glenn in the first two rounds from now on. We have a lock. If Mack is available at #9, then we will draft him. No doubt at all about this.....cf: http://www.buffalobills.com/team/coaches/marrone_doug/2fd4fd60-7b07-4eb5-919e-d8e6c895d473 "......................Marrone returned to Syracuse and graduated in 1991 with a degree in liberal arts. He and his wife, Helen, have two daughters, Madeline and Anne, and a son, Mack."
Mr. WEO Posted March 2, 2014 Posted March 2, 2014 To back up that bolded part the Bills were 25th in three and out percentage, and even tho they were the #2 rushing team in the NFL they graded at 16th in run blocking. The Bills were 31st in converting 1st downs, and only Jacksonville was worse. They only had 10 drives that lasted 5 min or longer all season. See thebandits post above. Most of the sacks were on the QB, not the line. OL at pick 9 would be insanity. This team needs offensive playmakers.
thebandit27 Posted March 2, 2014 Posted March 2, 2014 See thebandits post above. Most of the sacks were on the QB, not the line. OL at pick 9 would be insanity. This team needs offensive playmakers. He's not going to address my post; I already pointed this out to him multiple times.
Kirby Jackson Posted March 2, 2014 Posted March 2, 2014 Thanks to the OP for a great post. The Bills holes are pretty clear and I think that they can potentially fill all of them. They need RT, WR, LB, LG, TE and P. Free agency will really dictate the draft plan. I'd like to see Zach Strief as the Bills top free agent target (besides Byrd). I would try to sign him for about $6.5M. He graded out as the top RT in the NFL last year and NOLA may not be able to afford him. Then the draft could realistically be something like Mike Evans (WR 1st), Gabe Jackson (LG 2nd), Chris Borland (LB 3rd) and Crockett Gilmore (TE 4th). Bandit also says that the punter from Memphis is the guy to target late in the draft so as him to the mix. I really believe that this is the perfect way to proceed while trying to extend AW, MD, CS, & CG. You present each with fair offers (not excessive) and play them against each other. Hopefully 1 or 2 sign a team friendly offer.
thebandit27 Posted March 2, 2014 Posted March 2, 2014 Thanks to the OP for a great post. The Bills holes are pretty clear and I think that they can potentially fill all of them. They need RT, WR, LB, LG, TE and P. Free agency will really dictate the draft plan. I'd like to see Zach Strief as the Bills top free agent target (besides Byrd). I would try to sign him for about $6.5M. He graded out as the top RT in the NFL last year and NOLA may not be able to afford him. Then the draft could realistically be something like Mike Evans (WR 1st), Gabe Jackson (LG 2nd), Chris Borland (LB 3rd) and Crockett Gilmore (TE 4th). Bandit also says that the punter from Memphis is the guy to target late in the draft so as him to the mix. I really believe that this is the perfect way to proceed while trying to extend AW, MD, CS, & CG. You present each with fair offers (not excessive) and play them against each other. Hopefully 1 or 2 sign a team friendly offer. ^ perfect offseason
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