Jerry Jabber Posted February 22, 2014 Posted February 22, 2014 http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2014/2/21/5433138/should-the-bills-replace-tj-graham "T.J was targeted on 58 passing plays, which accounts for 11% of all the quarterback targets (522). T.J. was the fifth receiving option in the pass game, behind Stevie Johnson (150 targets), Robert Woods (85 targets), Scott Chandler (81 targets) and Fred Jackson (65 targets). Of the seven primary receiving targets on the Bills, Graham had the worst catch to target ratio of 39.7%" The article gives a good breakdown of the times Graham was targeted and reaffirms what we already know.
boyst Posted February 22, 2014 Posted February 22, 2014 What are the odds I end up posting in this thread?
boyst Posted February 22, 2014 Posted February 22, 2014 ....and we're off. Am I going to post here? Yeah I am going to post here. I do not know what the author of the article believes personally about Graham but I think he gives a fair assessment. However, Jerry, you do not seem to give him a fair shake because I am going to go on a limb and say “what we already know” is TJ sucks and is awful and rips the flesh off kittens to feed to his Rottweiler. Yet, reading the conclusion first because I get A.D.D I clearly read: I can't answer that question based on these videos. The Bills ran 522 plays in 2013, these videos are only looking at 58 of them. What did T.J. do in the other 464 pass plays that didn't come his way? What did he do in the run game? However, there is something seriously wrong, when you have your No. 2 receiver being targeted the fifth-most times amongst all receiving options. What's the use of a drafting a guy in the first round to replace T.J., when you have quarterbacks who can't deliver the ball consistently and accurately? This means to me a few things. We had bad scheming, bad QBing, and a few other points I will touch on first. EJ Manuel struggled to get his reads in and very much struggled to move the ball around to different targets in general. His targets were so quick that it was astonishing how many times Graham got open and was checked off by Manuel. Now, don’t go thinking this means Manuel realized he will probably drop it because Lewis moved the ball to targets more than any QB on our roster. Lewis was the best playing QB in 2013 for the Bills. He did not perform the best but he did play the best for the team to win consistently. Tuel, well, if you really judge anything about the Bills offense when he started …skip. Look, I am not some TJ Graham homer. I am a realist. Going back to Graham you have to remember, he is a speedy WR. [so is Goodwin, I know this – fanboys of “Mr Faux Olympic Speed” don’t need to remind me of this. He is a good player who I think offers a lot to a football team and I am not going to turn this in to a TJ Graham vs. Marquise Goodwin thread, or TJ vs. anyone else. It is a TJ Graham is our #2 WR thread.] Graham races down field quickly and was missed in the reads. Yes, he was targeted but that was when he was in his route and not at a point in which it was valid to complete the pass to him. If you need remember this point how many times did we see everyone whine “he was not even looking at the QB!” That is because the play is not designed to work throwing to Graham only 4 yards in to his 8 yard post/flag, or only 6 yards in to his 12 yard curl. Those were two routes he ran a lot of where the instance occurred – and those were likely many of what the author counted as bad passes. Of many other targets it is clear when watching the film from the rest of the season on the all22 that Graham was checked early in his route and simply skipped. You know what happens there – TJ Graham is never open, never catches a pass, doesn’t make a difference because the QB threw to SJ13 in traffic for a 5 yard gain and SJ13 sitting down before contact. With Lewis we saw many issues with Graham that we saw with Manuel with one difference. Lewis had probably the most uncomfortable experience in the backfield of all Bills QBs. Lewis couldn’t keep his head on straight for DL/LBs in his mask, wanting to look around the field to find his next move to escape and then he may look downfield, too. It’s why he found Chandler – big little guy right up the middle that he couldn’t miss. However, I do want to touch on that arm Lewis has and when he could back up and sling it – it was amazing and something we’ve not seen since JP Losman. A few other points: We do not know Goodwin’s, Hogan’s or others stats We do not know how many “good”, “bad” or “drop” throws were made to other targets. I disagree with his take on protection but I will have to watch it many more times to really get an answer here because I do not want to just watch Grahams OL protection – I want erryones. Some of those passes just should not have been made. I do not know if they were counted as “good” “bad” or “drops” but some of them were just moments where I thought “WTF was QB thinking?” I do not want roast Graham, I do not want to start him @ #2 either, at least not yet. I am willing to give him time. Remember 12-15 years ago when a 3rd round player was given a few seasons to improve – usually by his 3rd and 4th years? Can we not afford to give Graham this time? Is there a reason you’re answering “no?” Is it something to do with “hibby jibby hibby jibby Goodwin deserves time?” Does it really have to be this way? Why do you hate me? You can put both players on the field, for one. For two, Goodwin was banged up quite a bit so I am not quite sure he earned more time when he couldn’t be depended on every snap. What about simply finding a way to use Graham differently? As #3? He hustles, he gives effort and he blocks well. “hibby jibby hibby jibby, he missed that one big block for that sure to be TD (that I cannot remember who it was against but he did).” Yep, he did. And the sky is blue. Graham is entering his 3rd year. Let us see what he can do. I do not expect him to be all-world, or even a top WR in the AFCE at this current rate. But, I do think he can become a more solid contributor to a football team if given the opportunity to do so. Also, Graham and I are registered and Crate and Barrel, Target, and Dollar General. RSVP’s will be going out next month.
DC Tom Posted February 22, 2014 Posted February 22, 2014 I don't know if Graham is bad or not - I haven't really seen him play. In my view, that makes him less "bad" than it does "completely useless." He could be great, for all I know...
boyst Posted February 22, 2014 Posted February 22, 2014 Which of those 61.3% were catchable? per author, but seeing it for yourself it's more then just catchable vs. not. Like a few that were just horribly thrown - the INT by Keuchly, for example. And then ones that were major PI, called or not. Or others that were simply just not worth tabbing - EJ scrambling and dumping it off, or TJ not fighting to keep the DB off the pass or for ball control (which is coachable). Targets T.J was targeted on 58 passing plays, which accounts for 11% of all the quarterback targets (522). T.J. was the fifth receiving option in the pass game, behind Stevie Johnson (150 targets), Robert Woods (85 targets), Scott Chandler (81 targets) and Fred Jackson (65 targets). Of the seven primary receiving targets on the Bills, Graham had the worst catch to target ratio of 39.7%. Of the 58 targeted passes to T.J., I counted 29 good throws and 29 bad throws (50%), and three dropped passes.
Jerry Jabber Posted February 22, 2014 Author Posted February 22, 2014 My honest observation of Graham is that if he isn't wide open (meaning no defenders on him) and if the ball doesn't him hit directly in the hands, then he has been unable to make a play. I know some WR's take some time to develop (Eric Moulds was a late bloomer), but so far I haven't been impressed with him and feel he should be way down on the depth chart until he proves otherwise.
boyst Posted February 22, 2014 Posted February 22, 2014 TJ Graham PR 100m: 10.21 Marquise Goodwin PR 100m: 10.24 Graham 60m: 6.91 Goodwin 60m: 6.69 Graham 200m: 20.82 Goodwin 200m: 21.24 TJ Graham is faster then Mr Olympic Speed. Worth note, Goodwin's best times appear to be from High School.
3rdand12 Posted February 22, 2014 Posted February 22, 2014 My honest observation of Graham is that if he isn't wide open (meaning no defenders on him) and if the ball doesn't him hit directly in the hands, then he has been unable to make a play. I know some WR's take some time to develop (Eric Moulds was a late bloomer), but so far I haven't been impressed with him and feel he should be way down on the depth chart until he proves otherwise. My TJ Graham exp has been lacking . Not in the viewing portion of study. But the satisfaction of perceiving a great effort from this wider receiver. He plays like he is saving himself for the right QB or something. Sure , J , i agree with the 3 year rule for recievers . No problem. But Tj does not have football hands. I had hope for him back when but last year he proved me wrong. one more try J. thats it though , he will need to prove himself fully vetted and no longer a project. i dont see it
Jerry Jabber Posted February 22, 2014 Author Posted February 22, 2014 My TJ Graham exp has been lacking . Not in the viewing portion of study. But the satisfaction of perceiving a great effort from this wider receiver. He plays like he is saving himself for the right QB or something. Sure , J , i agree with the 3 year rule for recievers . No problem. But Tj does not have football hands. I had hope for him back when but last year he proved me wrong. one more try J. thats it though , he will need to prove himself fully vetted and no longer a project. i dont see it I agree with your assessment. I would rather see Goodwin get more time on the field besides being thrown an occasional deep pass.
QB Bills Posted February 22, 2014 Posted February 22, 2014 He's not. He was open all year. Our QBs just suck.
FireChan Posted February 22, 2014 Posted February 22, 2014 If TJ Graham sucks, then Marrone sucks. If you don't believe that, you're wrong.
3rdand12 Posted February 22, 2014 Posted February 22, 2014 He's not. He was open all year. Our QBs just suck. He was open . And not thrown to. They all were . TJ just didnt catch enough reasonable passes when thrown to or stay alert for blitzing or get tuned into the play. He ran a route. and blocked okay sometimes. at least better than year one. But what stood out to me was his lack of natural positioning to catch and possibly run afterwards . Just nothing to notice for me in the good . If TJ Graham sucks, then Marrone sucks. If you don't believe that, you're wrong. no i am not . But i can see what you are getting after
artmalibu Posted February 22, 2014 Posted February 22, 2014 As the author stated at the end of the article is we dont have enough info no him to run the analitics stuff. But, the coaches have all the data on the guy, they know exactly how many times he beat the coverage. Also, how many good blocks he threw to help the run. I believe many of the current receivers will need to earn a roster spot next year!
FireChan Posted February 22, 2014 Posted February 22, 2014 He was open . And not thrown to. They all were . TJ just didnt catch enough reasonable passes when thrown to or stay alert for blitzing or get tuned into the play. He ran a route. and blocked okay sometimes. at least better than year one. But what stood out to me was his lack of natural positioning to catch and possibly run afterwards . Just nothing to notice for me in the good . no i am not . But i can see what you are getting after If TJ Graham sucks, why did he start? Marrone right? Looks like another bonehead move from the Maroon. The best part about Graham is I can ride the excuse train like TBD does for people they like. Graham had a WR coach who got fired this year. He might not have been taught the right way. Graham will have his 3rd WR coach in 3 years, it's tough to readjust. Second playbook in 3 years, tough to adjust. 3 different QB's throwing to him. Rookie QB's. Balls thrown out of bounds. QB struggles with reads. O-line didn't block well enough for the route to develop. He's a stretch the field WR and EJ sucks at throwing deep. Maybe Stevie Johnson asks for the ball every play. And the list goes on...
3rdand12 Posted February 22, 2014 Posted February 22, 2014 If TJ Graham sucks, why did he start? Marrone right? Looks like another bonehead move from the Maroon. The best part about Graham is I can ride the excuse train like TBD does for people they like. Graham had a WR coach who got fired this year. He might not have been taught the right way. Graham will have his 3rd WR coach in 3 years, it's tough to readjust. Second playbook in 3 years, tough to adjust. 3 different QB's throwing to him. Rookie QB's. Balls thrown out of bounds. QB struggles with reads. O-line didn't block well enough for the route to develop. He's a stretch the field WR and EJ sucks at throwing deep. Maybe Stevie Johnson asks for the ball every play. And the list goes on... no excuses. Maybe Bills had nothing better , in the grand scheme of things , to field As the author stated at the end of the article is we dont have enough info no him to run the analitics stuff. But, the coaches have all the data on the guy, they know exactly how many times he beat the coverage. Also, how many good blocks he threw to help the run. I believe many of the current receivers will need to earn a roster spot next year! I Billieve you are completely correct
JPS Posted February 22, 2014 Posted February 22, 2014 Can't do it. Not even in February. Can't engage about TJ Graham.
BobDVA Posted February 22, 2014 Posted February 22, 2014 after re-watching all the games. paying particular attention to Graham, I was amazed how often he was open. Open in the NFL meaning a half step on a db, pass after bad pass were thrown in his direction. I mean non catchable passes by anyone one! This man has been unfairly assessed by far too many here. Is he elite, no, but he is better than Don Beebe was, and I want him on this team.
Recommended Posts