simpleman Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 (edited) "The reality is, an NFL draft pick has about a coin flip's chance of sticking in the league." Love this quote from ESPN. For all we do and all the real NFL scouts and managers do, the draft is still a 50/50 chance of finding a player that fits. That is why I would prefer to trade down from 9 and pick up extra high round multiple picks, especially in a year that the talent is so deep even into the 4th round at positions of need for the Bills.. Better odds of "winning" in the draft. Edited February 20, 2014 by simpleman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 But we drafted TJ Graham over Russell Wilson! And Dalton was there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Every single team has a laundry list of picks they would like to have back and hindsight regret. The FOs and coaches work tirelessly to get it right, but it is not an exact science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewildrabbit Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 But we drafted TJ Graham over Russell Wilson! And Dalton was there! Yea, good ole Buddy... Looking at the last draft I have to think that perhaps the Bills have turned a corner with the scouting issues, as Doug Whaley looks like the real deal. The defensive free agents in LBer Manny Lawson, DE Alan Branch. The trade with the Colts for LBer Jerry Hughes was amazing as the Bills lost nothing, and gained 10 sacks. Then the draft was far better then past drafts with EJ, Kiko, Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin, and 8 players in all. Only one didn't play, and that was the kicker Hopkins. I'm finally excited about the upcoming draft and "IF" the Bills make the right choices... I may have to purchase season tickets again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 (edited) Every single team has a laundry list of picks they would like to have back and hindsight regret. The FOs and coaches work tirelessly to get it right, but it is not an exact science. This is so true. And it's why grown men can be driven to sheer tears of joy when they get one right. Especially in the later rounds. And if you look at the draft success of teams around the league, you'll see you are 100% right about those laundry lists. I think that's why the draftnik industry is so big. When trained personnel professionals with 30 years beating the bushes for talent behind them, can point to a 50/50 proposition, it's no wonder that anyTom, Dick, or Mel would think they can get it right, too. GO BILLS!!! Edited February 20, 2014 by K-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 This is so true. And it's why grown men can be driven to sheer tears of joy when they get one right. Especially in the later rounds. And if you look at the draft success of teams around the league, you'll see you are 100% right about those laundry lists. I think that's why the draftnik industry is so big. When trained personnel professionals with 30 years beating the bushes for talent behind them, can point to a 50/50 proposition, it's no wonder that anyTom, Dick, or Mel would think they can get it right, too. GO BILLS!!! Well, taking the above example alone, some Toms and Dicks were saying take a flyer on Russ Wilson-looks like he can really play, whereas "trained personnel professionals" were stuck at "no way you can draft a QB that short". Evidence suggests that there are many untrained amateurs who could pick (and not in hindsight) with a 50% hit rate. And arguing that all draft blunders are essentially equal isn't compelling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Yea, good ole Buddy... Looking at the last draft I have to think that perhaps the Bills have turned a corner with the scouting issues, as Doug Whaley looks like the real deal. The defensive free agents in LBer Manny Lawson, DE Alan Branch. The trade with the Colts for LBer Jerry Hughes was amazing as the Bills lost nothing, and gained 10 sacks. Then the draft was far better then past drafts with EJ, Kiko, Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin, and 8 players in all. Only one didn't play, and that was the kicker Hopkins. I'm finally excited about the upcoming draft and "IF" the Bills make the right choices... I may have to purchase season tickets again. you missed my point. Hindsight is twenty twenty. And he has been missing a while too. The Patriots were told they wasted a pick on Brady. They did. They did not need a QB at that time as a backup. They had two on the roster and even took one more in to camp. They needed OL depth. They made a poor choice in not going OL for depth and RB for depth too. Looking back on it they made a good choice. But nlets not pretend the Patriots were doing something smart with Brady. Or even knew more about him then anyone else. They got lucky on a draft pick. Just like a coin flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Well, taking the above example alone, some Toms and Dicks were saying take a flyer on Russ Wilson-looks like he can really play, whereas "trained personnel professionals" were stuck at "no way you can draft a QB that short". Evidence suggests that there are many untrained amateurs who could pick (and not in hindsight) with a 50% hit rate. And arguing that all draft blunders are essentially equal isn't compelling. WTF are you babbling about now? Nobody's arguing all draft blunders are essentially equal. What I am saying is that over the course of history it tends to even out for most teams number one, and two, that even with all the experience a scout may bring to the table when evaluating players, it's far from an exact science. We simply don't have the ability to look inside a kid's heart and predict the future. You mean you were one of the prescient ones to suggest we take Wilson? Good for you. We'll await the list of players you've been wrong about. GO BILLS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazed and Amuzed Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Well, taking the above example alone, some Toms and Dicks were saying take a flyer on Russ Wilson-looks like he can really play, whereas "trained personnel professionals" were stuck at "no way you can draft a QB that short". Evidence suggests that there are many untrained amateurs who could pick (and not in hindsight) with a 50% hit rate. And arguing that all draft blunders are essentially equal isn't compelling. It's called overthinking the process. Too many times players will pass the eye test and get passed up for whatever reasons. Usually some physical shortcoming(no pun intended) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 WTF are you babbling about now? Nobody's arguing all draft blunders are essentially equal. What I am saying is that over the course of history it tends to even out for most teams number one, and two, that even with all the experience a scout may bring to the table when evaluating players, it's far from an exact science. We simply don't have the ability to look inside a kid's heart and predict the future. You mean you were one of the prescient ones to suggest we take Wilson? Good for you. We'll await the list of players you've been wrong about. GO BILLS!!! Someone upstream said that every team can look back on draft blunders, but for many teams (the perennial best teams) it hardly matters. Compare that to a team that repeatedly ignored addressing their most desperate need several years in a row--culminating in last year's passing over a guy who would have cost them essentially nothing to draft (3rd round) and well under a million a year to sign.. Zero risk, essentially. This wasn't a tough one. Others (than me) were touting this pick before the draft. Yet our professional experts didn't think we needed a QB that badly--but that we really needed a project #4 WR at that spot. It's amusing when "nonprofessionals" claim other nonprofessionals simply can't know what they are talking about when it comes to making draft picks--yet the real pros (GMs) get fired al lthe time in the NFL........ for making crappy personnel decisions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 It's amusing when "nonprofessionals" claim other nonprofessionals simply can't know what they are talking about when it comes to making draft picks--yet the real pros (GMs) get fired al lthe time in the NFL........ for making crappy personnel decisions. Why bring this up in a thread that is saying totally the opposite though? This thread is saying it's a 50/50 chance even when you put all the intel into it so essentially agreeing with your assessment. Buddy Nix might have been wrong on Wilson and you and some others on here might have been right but that doesn't say any more than you got the toss of the coin right on that player. Unless what you are saying is picking Wilson as a success makes you more qualified than anyone that didn't rate him high enough to draft him in the third? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jumbalaya Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Yea, good ole Buddy... Looking at the last draft I have to think that perhaps the Bills have turned a corner with the scouting issues, as Doug Whaley looks like the real deal. The defensive free agents in LBer Manny Lawson, DE Alan Branch. The trade with the Colts for LBer Jerry Hughes was amazing as the Bills lost nothing, and gained 10 sacks. Then the draft was far better then past drafts with EJ, Kiko, Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin, and 8 players in all. Only one didn't play, and that was the kicker Hopkins. I'm finally excited about the upcoming draft and "IF" the Bills make the right choices... I may have to purchase season tickets again. Yes, last year was great, we improved from 6 wins to 6 wins, but we looked better losing than ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewildrabbit Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 you missed my point. Hindsight is twenty twenty. And he has been missing a while too. The Patriots were told they wasted a pick on Brady. They did. They did not need a QB at that time as a backup. They had two on the roster and even took one more in to camp. They needed OL depth. They made a poor choice in not going OL for depth and RB for depth too. Looking back on it they made a good choice. But nlets not pretend the Patriots were doing something smart with Brady. Or even knew more about him then anyone else. They got lucky on a draft pick. Just like a coin flip. Perhaps I did... I believe that teams make their own destiny. The better the scouting dept, usually the better the team IMO. Sure, every team makes mistakes on players, as you sometimes need to leave things to chance with certain elements. I reflect on this franchise when Chuck Knox took over and brought in his own chief scout in Norm Pollom. Who then changed the entire scouting dept. A whole lot of those players that Knox drafted ended up playing an average of about 6 years. Nearly 2x the normal average. 38 players in 5 years. One player he drafted went on to play in the NFL for 23 years.... Yes, last year was great, we improved from 6 wins to 6 wins, but we looked better losing than ever. Yep!! This team scrood the pooch with the O line in letting Levitre leave and then replacing him with very sub par players. While they built up the defense.... they fell on their face with the offense. So strange that a team starting a rookie QB would leave so much to chance with that O line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimer1960 Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Every single team has a laundry list of picks they would like to have back and hindsight regret. The FOs and coaches work tirelessly to get it right, but it is not an exact science. +1000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Why bring this up in a thread that is saying totally the opposite though? This thread is saying it's a 50/50 chance even when you put all the intel into it so essentially agreeing with your assessment. Buddy Nix might have been wrong on Wilson and you and some others on here might have been right but that doesn't say any more than you got the toss of the coin right on that player. Unless what you are saying is picking Wilson as a success makes you more qualified than anyone that didn't rate him high enough to draft him in the third? I'm not including myself in the group who was pushing for Wilson. But I would say that in doing so, they were not "flipping a coin". They were saying that by risking almost nothing, we could draft an impressive QB who, by many accounts at that time, would have been the top QB pick if he was a few inches taller. Essentially, those who wanted Wilson were saying that the "he's too short" argument of Buddy and others was demonstrably false (and of course it is) and that QB was a huge need (and of course it was), so "risking" a 3rd round pick on this kid made all the sense in the world. Compare that to Buddy's action on the third round pick that day.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Nobody is denying Buddy was wrong and people who rated Wilson were right. Equally nobody is saying that "non proffesionals" are not entitled to a view, in fact this thread is saying quite the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts