DreamOnDan Posted February 19, 2014 Posted February 19, 2014 (edited) Kudos to Spotrac for keeping this information available to us! http://www.spotrac.c...positions/2014/ Doug Marrone recently said in an interview that he/they do not look at the Free agents available or players available in the draft and say "this is what we would do if we pick up this guy or that guy", what he says they do is try to figure out how to win with the players they do have under contract.. He said that once they sign a free agent or draft a player they, to a certain degree rewrite the script of how they want to approach the season with their scheme, gameplanning, and matchups/mismatches and such.. With all that being said, the bills have 7 draft picks coming up and also have pretty close to 19 million in salary cap room to spend.. They should keep about 4-5 million for rookies aside which leaves them able to spend around 14-15 million without cutting anybody.. I hate to speculate about anyone being cut but if any one player is likely to be released it would be Kevin Kolb. I'm not a capologist but it appears that it would net around a 3 million dollar savings if that happens which could increase the available money to spend this offseason on free agents to between 17-18 million dollars. Now lets not forget that It's fairly safe to assume that J Byrd will be re-signed whether it be the franchise tag or a long term deal we might as well say that he costs the team the franchise tag for safety(8.3 million). So with that in mind we should be able to spend around 9-10 million cap dollars for 2014 without cutting anybody besides Kolb and resigning only Byrd. Also, we should consider our own free agents as a higher priority especially those with exclusive rights(Frank Summers, Chris Hogan, Antoine McLaine, and Brandon Smith) and restricted free agents Thomas Welch and Mike Caussin all of those players will more than likely be retained but they are also easy to cut with very little to no cap penalty and besides Summers they are depth players more so than guys that flashed starting caliber production. That leaves the team with about 8-9 million in available cap space without releasing anyone besides Kolb, re-signing Byrd, and only retaining our exclusive/restricted rights free agents.. There are more than a few ways that the Bills could spend the extra money. Signing Scott Chandler would take up about 1/4 to 1/2 of the available money as his production should garner him a modest free agent deal at worst.. But Drafting a TE could be much cheaper as even a first rd pick now only makes a couple million a season. Alex Carrington is the 'other' guy that the Bills must be seriously considering re-signing or replacing depending on how much money the player is asking for.. Arthur Moats, Jim Leanhard, and Dan Carpenter are the only other unrestricted free agents and all could potentially be back in 2014 with modest contracts. The Bills draft 7 players and only have 7 unrestricted free agents so as long as they keep Byrd and draft well they should easily be a better team in 2014 since all the other players are not exactly superstars at their positions.. One or 2 of our holes are likely to be filled in free agency.. I am under the impression that they may sign a young free agent Offensive lineman and linebacker that still have a high ceiling to come in and compete at the RT or more likely the G position and OLB opposite Lawson in this new 4-3 look.. As of now I would assume that Bradham is the front runner for that position and I may be a lot more comfortable with that than most.. I still like him, but there needs to be a competition there and an improvement can be made whether it be a nice progression from Bradham or not.. Marrone seems to me like a guy that is confident in his ability to develop offensive lineman and with Woods big deal, letting Levitre walk, and the impending big contract that Glenn will be signing, I don't see a big splash in free agency on the Offensive line.. If both players are healthy, Legursky and Hairston may be able to hold down the 6th and 7th lineman spots on gameday as the swing C/G and tackle and bring some experience to the roster at an affordable price. I feel that the Bills could use some star power on offense and there isn't really going to be anyone available at WR and TE in free agency that has the potential that the top players in the draft will this year.. I like the WR depth a lot so grabbing Ebron or one of the top 3 tackles at 9 would suit the team well. A WR in rd 2 will be available with all the tools necessary to be a #1 opposite Stevie, Woods, and Goodwin.. It is conceivable that no matter what the order, depending on what the Bills do in free agency, the team can draft a starting RT and TE, and potentially a starting LG and even a WR that could contribute year 1.. If in the first 3 selections the Bills are lucky enough to nab up a starting O Lineman, TE, and WR, then the Bills are in a really good position to make a run at the Playoffs in 2014!! Another Dark horse draft pick that nobody seems to be talking about that I think is highly likely is a DE.. Jerry Hughes is not the prototypical size of a 4-3 end or OLB as well as our DE numbers are way down and there is nothing more important in this scheme than some guys that can get up the field and rush the passer.. If the team were to fill all its needs on the O line in free agency then this becomes even more likely in my opinion.. DE could even be the position that the Bills address in free agency since they showed their commitment to the pass rush a few years back when they played a similar scheme and signed both Mario Williams and Mark Anderson. We could see another Mark Anderson type signing which would really help solidify the DE position.. Branch is much better suited as a penetrating DT in this scheme which really doesn't give us even one backup DE worth a roster spot.. PLAYER POS. 2014 BASE SALARY SIGNING BONUS OTHER/BONUS DEAD MONEY/penalty if cut 2014 Total Cap FIGURE DEFENSIVE END $25,720,000 (17.85%) Mario Williams DE 1,900,000 3,800,000 13,100,000 (17,800,000) 18,800,000 Jerry Hughes DE 3,995,000 - - - 3,995,000 Alan Branch DE/DT 1,800,000 775,000 350,000 (3,200,000) 2,925,000 Kourtnei Brown DE 420,000 - - - 420,000 Ikponmwosa Igbinosun DE 420,000 - - - 420,000 Nathan Williams DE 420,000 - - - 420,000 WIDE RECEIVER $14,078,617 (9.77%) Stevie Johnson WR 3,650,000 1,700,000 3,150,000 (8,475,000) 8,500,000 Robert Woods WR 576,217 479,868 50,000 (2,015,821) 1,106,085 T.J. Graham WR 580,000 167,813 30,000 (335,626) 777,813 Ramses Barden WR 730,000 - - - 730,000 Marcus Easley WR 730,000 - - - 730,000 Marquise Goodwin WR 495,000 149,719 30,000 (449,157) 674,719 Kevin Elliott WR 570,000 - - - 570,000 Stefan Charles WR 495,000 - - - 495,000 Cordell Roberson WR 495,000 - - - 495,000 Brandon Kaufman WR 420,000 - - - 420,000 Chris Summers WR 420,000 - - - 420,000 DEFENSIVE TACKLE $13,238,232 (9.19%) Marcell Dareus DT 3,157,814 3,335,418 - (6,493,232) 6,493,232 Kyle Williams DT 4,650,000 950,000 650,000 (1,900,000) 6,250,000 Corbin Bryant DT 495,000 - - - 495,000 Randy Colling DT 420,000 - - - 420,000 CENTER $7,050,000 (4.89%) Eric Wood C 4,000,000 1,800,000 150,000 (10,550,000) 5,950,000 Doug Legursky C 850,000 100,000 150,000 (100,000) 1,100,000 RUNNING BACK $10,336,916 (7.17%) C.J. Spiller RB 3,499,000 333,333 2,084,583 (4,335,833) 5,916,916 Fred Jackson RB 2,450,000 1,000,000 400,000 (1,000,000) 3,850,000 Anthony Allen RB 570,000 - - - 570,000 Ronnie Wingo RB 495,000 - - - 495,000 CORNERBACK $9,533,147 (6.62%) Leodis McKelvin CB 2,100,000 1,000,000 1,475,000 (3,000,000) 4,575,000 Stephon Gilmore CB 1,488,559 1,807,120 - (7,140,638) 3,295,679 Ron Brooks CB 570,000 100,135 - (200,270) 670,135 Nickell Robey CB 495,000 2,333 - (4,667) 497,333 Mario Butler CB 495,000 - - - 495,000 QUARTERBACK $7,491,052 (5.2%) Kevin Kolb QB 2,000,000 500,000 1,100,000 (500,000) 3,600,000 E.J. Manuel QB 808,877 1,210,509 - (7,269,791) 2,019,386 Dennis Dixon QB 730,000 - - - 730,000 Thaddeus Lewis QB 645,000 - - - 645,000 Jeff Tuel QB 495,000 1,666 - (3,334) 496,666 RIGHT TACKLE $3,450,000 (2.39%) Erik Pears RT,T 2,750,000 550,000 150,000 (550,000) 3,450,000 Joe Unga RT,T 495,000 - - - 495,000 GUARD $3,375,000 (2.34%) Kraig Urbik G 2,275,000 700,000 400,000 (2,100,000) 3,375,000 OUTSIDE LINEBACKER $4,281,065 (2.97%) Manny Lawson OLB,LB 1,800,000 750,000 550,000 (2,250,000) 3,100,000 Nigel Bradham OLB,LB 570,000 116,065 - (232,130) 686,065 Willie Jefferson OLB,LB 495,000 - - - 495,000 Jacquies Smith OLB,LB 420,000 - - - 420,000 SAFETY $4,340,354 (3.01%) Aaron Williams S 1,092,156 581,029 - (581,209) 1,673,185 Da'Norris Searcy S 1,389,000 121,106 - (121,106) 1,510,106 Duke Williams S 495,000 117,563 - (352,689) 612,563 Johnathan Meeks S 495,000 49,500 - (148,500) 544,500 Jajuan Harley S 420,000 - - - 420,000 LEFT TACKLE $3,389,844 (2.35%) Chris Hairston LT,T 1,389,000 103,977 - (103,977) 1,492,977 Cordy Glenn LT,T 782,289 494,578 50,000 (989,156) 1,326,867 Mark Asper LT,T 570,000 - - - 570,000 Edawn Coughman LT,T 420,000 - - - 420,000 Jamaal Johnson-Webb LT,T 420,000 - - - 420,000 TIGHT END $2,548,194 (1.77%) Tony Moeaki TE 1,000,000 - 350,000 - 1,350,000 Lee Smith TE 688,401 - - - 688,401 Chris Gragg TE 495,000 14,793 - (44,379) 509,793 LONG SNAPPER $1,096,667 (0.76%) Garrison Sanborn LS 895,000 176,667 25,000 (176,667) 1,096,667 INSIDE LINEBACKER $1,472,364 (1.02%) Kiko Alonso ILB,LB 550,473 376,891 50,000 (1,681,146) 977,364 Ty Powell ILB,LB 495,000 - - - 495,000 PUNTER $570,000 (0.4%) Brian Moorman P 955,000 - - - 570,000 FULLBACK $570,000 (0.4%) Evan Rodriguez FB 570,000 - - - 570,000 KICKER $523,000 (0.36%) Dustin Hopkins K 495,000 28,000 - (84,000) 523,000 DEAD MONEY PLAYER POS. BASE SALARY SIGNING BONUS OTHER BONUS DEAD MONEY CAP FIGURE Ryan Fitzpatrick QB 7,000,000 - - - 7,000,000 Mark Anderson DE 3,000,000 - - - 3,000,000 Rian Lindell K 1,375,000 - - - 1,375,000 Brad Smith WR 500,000 - - - 500,000 Zebrie Sanders RT,T 99,250 - - - 99,250 Chris White ILB,LB 30,150 - - - 30,150 Justin Rogers CB 16,875 - - - 16,875 Colin Brown G 12,500 - - - 12,500 Da'Rick Rogers WR 6,667 - - - 6,667 Keith Pough OLB,LB 5,334 - - - 5,334 Zack Chibane G 3,667 - - - 3,667 Jumal Rolle CB 3,667 - - - 3,667 Ryan Turnley C 3,334 - - - 3,334 Kendall Gaskins FB 2,667 - - - 2,667 Jordan Dangerfield S 2,334 - - - 2,334 Drew Smith RB 2,000 - - - 2,000 Aaron Tipoti DE 2,000 - - - 2,000 Kip Edwards CB 2,000 - - - 2,000 Brandon Kaufman WR 1,667 - - - 1,667 Kevin Norrell WR 667 - - - 667 Izaan Cross DE 334 - - - 334 2014 TOTALS BASE SALARY SIGNING BONUS OTHER BONUS CAP FIGURE 2013 Available Cap Rollover - - - 17,801,975 Top 51 Contracts 65,761,786 23,393,083 24,294,583 113,064,452 Dead Money 12,070,113 - - 12,070,113 83,021,899 23,393,083 24,294,583 125,134,565 Cap Space 17,801,975 + 0 + 126,300,000 - 125,134,565 = 18,967,410 This chart accounts for the Top 53 contracts but does not really give a 100% accurate account of the salary cap figure.. I noticed that it has 9 receivers in the top 53 contracts and the team is likely to keep 6. So there is just one example of how this is slightly flawed.. By all accounts and measures, it is close enough to use with confidence.. What do you think that the Bills should do with all the extra money they have available? Edited February 19, 2014 by DreamOnDan
DreamOnDan Posted February 19, 2014 Author Posted February 19, 2014 ILB and TE are the Positions that have the least amount of cap space used for them and still have a huge impact on the game.. Long snapper, Punter, Kicker, and Fullback are to be expected lower salaried positions.. Once we release Kolb, QB will be insanely low pay compared to the rest of the league as well.. Even before so, the best teams in the league account Mario Williams type money for QB so we have a lot of room at that position to sign a star if one were to become available or draft another one high or just keep the young guys and use the extra money to help the young QB succeed such as protecting him and giving him the most amount of good targets possible.. No matter how much room we have under the cap, there is always ways to clear more money if such a player were to become available.. If they can upgrade Pears that alone will free up enough money to sign a starting caliber G or OLB.. But I have always been of the theory that you don't cut players until you replace them with somebody better first, unless it is imparing your ability to make contract offers.. I don't see that being the case as of yet...
maddenboy Posted February 19, 2014 Posted February 19, 2014 (edited) words. lots of . . . words. And numbers. And words. Someone should invent a paragraph break. So eyes dont glaze over reading important info. That said, that's very fine work, sir. (and I did read . . . every . . . word. Someone named Aaron Tipoti is costing us 2K in dead money). And to your point, I think the Bills will follow the moneyball approach (I just wanna use that word without having seen the movie) and draft well, and plug holes through FA. The new regime doesnt seem too interested in drafting/reaching for "need." If you didnt win the SB then you have plenty of "needs" which are often not what your fans consider "needs." OG, LB (in or out), and "playmaker" (TE or WR) in the first three rounds. In any order. Offer Byrd a fair, but not top 3 deal. Sign Carrington at all reasonable costs as possibly a higher priority than Byrd. Of course get rid of Kolb. And for sure draft a RB at some point. To the OP's point, DE could be in play. I think this team is going to be about BPA for a couple years, recognizing its at least a couple years from SB contention. Just draft good players and let the coaches use them. Edited February 19, 2014 by maddenboy
boyst Posted February 19, 2014 Posted February 19, 2014 We are very cheap at CB and LB I would bet. Compared to other teams. We are getting by nicely at some viable positions. Even QB and LT.
DreamOnDan Posted February 19, 2014 Author Posted February 19, 2014 I also really like Carrington and feel that Its important to re-sign him.. He has played very well when he has gotten on the field.. Two things are gonna happen, we may get a discount because of lack of league exposure/playing time.. Or somebody will see how well he grades out and pay him big money to start, which the BIlls will not match or exceed the offer is my guess and we lose him.. Carpenter is another guy that played really well and could be paid more by another team depending on a lot of things i suppose.. I don't foresee Leanhard getting re-signed now that Pettine is gone.. It seems like we have our safeties if Byrd is re-signed then they really can ignore that position if they think Duke Williams and Meeks are worth the roster spots.. Searcy is more than serviceable so that gives us 5 .. My question is Where does Carrington Fit in? I could see him play pass rushing 3 technique DT or run stuffing 4-3 end, but I am under the impression that his best position might be 3/4 DE or 3 technique DT which he really doesn't have much a chance at starting at in this defense.. Not that I would be unhappy of a line that started Mario WIlliams, Kyle Williams, Marcel Dareus, and Alex Carrington, with Alan Branch and Jerry Hughes as potential starters/rotation guys in that mix.. I just think that another really dominant pass rushing DE would be a better way to spend the money.. If we like Hughes size then it opens up a ton of possibilities with some mid tier free agents that may be able to succeed in this scheme.. Wide 9 is kinda like sending a 3/4 OLB every play like a james Harrison would fit as DE just as well as he fit at OLB in pittsburgh..
Recommended Posts