1 Bold Offseason Prediction

[luckywarriors]

First free agent signed Lamar Houston DE Raiders

[uncle flap]

http://www.pionline....ighted-in-trial

 

As of 2011, Gundlach (in civil court) disclosed his net worth as being $90 million. He received $66.7 million from TCW afterward.

 

Doubleline manages $52 billion. I'm not sure what Gundlach receives as carried interest, or what they charge as management fees (I have no idea what Doubleline's fee structure is and can't find any publicly-available information), but let's assume he has at least 50% ownership.

 

You may be right that Gundlach is a billionaire, but there isn't solid proof.

 

 

 

On what basis do you think Gundlach is a multi-billionaire?

 

Well, IIRC there were audible laughs when Gundlach proclaimed to only be worth $90 mil. But if we believe him, then add the $66.7 million, call it $150 million.

 

Is 2% a reasonable estimate as far as investment/administrative fees? He's getting the lion's share of that, so I would guess he personally made around half a billion from 2009-2012. So, now let's say he's got $600 million as of 2012.

 

Since then, Doubeline has grown by almost 70%. He's likely more than doubled his personal net worth in that time (on fees alone, not including any of his personal investments), which is why I think it's fair to assume he's easily a billionaire.

 

Now, consider that Gundlach claimed that TCW charged up to 5% in management fees to his clients because high rollers were willing to spend that much on Gundlach and Co.'s genius advice. (To be fair, TCW denied this.) So, I don't think it's a stretch to think that Gundlach could have been making significantly more than what I projected above, as it's certainly plausible that some of Gundlach's accounts are paying a premium higher than the 2% I used above.

 

I think if you look at a conservative estimate like mine, it's pretty plain to see he's more than likely worth well over a billion. While I can't "prove" it, I don't have much reason to doubt it, and in fact I think he could have substantially more.

 

However, he isn't on any of those Forbes billionaire lists, so perhaps his net worth isn't what it appears to be.

 

In any event, he definitely has a lot of dough and wants to keep the Bills in Buffalo. Between him and some other of the names that have been bandied about, I'm gonna hang on to hope that the Bills aren't going anywhere for a long time.

Edited February 18, 2014 by uncle flap

[Bill from NYC]

I don't really have a bold offseason prediction yet. Still trying to wrap my head around the impact of losing Pettine and changing defenses once again. The only thing the Bills did at a high level last year was pressure the passer and every game they won in September and October was due almost exclusively to pass rush. I have never seen a Bills team so reliant on it for survival. I guess if I had one bold prediction for the next 12 months it would be that if the defense falls off Whaley will hold Marrone responsible for the Schwartz hire and fire him and install somebody who appreciates the idea of having an identity and sticking to it. You can't tell me there wasn't somebody available who could have provided some kind of continuity. On paper, changing to Schwartz increased defensive needs across the board. I just have a hard time believing Whaley approved of another change in defensive philosophy/identity.

 

Sad but true. Here's mine, and it won't be popular:

 

By the time the season is over, we will have a full blown QB controversy. Thad Lewis will have won at least as many games as Manuel. This doesn't qualify as a "prediction." It's more of a strong possibility. We have been through this before.

[Thirty Year Fan]

lol good call.

[ny33]

Well, IIRC there were audible laughs when Gundlach proclaimed to only be worth $90 mil. But if we believe him, then add the $66.7 million, call it $150 million.

 

Is 2% a reasonable estimate as far as investment/administrative fees? He's getting the lion's share of that, so I would guess he personally made around half a billion from 2009-2012. So, now let's say he's got $600 million as of 2012.

 

Since then, Doubeline has grown by almost 70%. He's likely more than doubled his personal net worth in that time (on fees alone, not including any of his personal investments), which is why I think it's fair to assume he's easily a billionaire.

 

Now, consider that Gundlach claimed that TCW charged up to 5% in management fees to his clients because high rollers were willing to spend that much on Gundlach and Co.'s genius advice. (To be fair, TCW denied this.) So, I don't think it's a stretch to think that Gundlach could have been making significantly more than what I projected above, as it's certainly plausible that some of Gundlach's accounts are paying a premium higher than the 2% I used above.

 

I think if you look at a conservative estimate like mine, it's pretty plain to see he's more than likely worth well over a billion. While I can't "prove" it, I don't have much reason to doubt it, and in fact I think he could have substantially more.

 

However, he isn't on any of those Forbes billionaire lists, so perhaps his net worth isn't what it appears to be.

 

In any event, he definitely has a lot of dough and wants to keep the Bills in Buffalo. Between him and some other of the names that have been bandied about, I'm gonna hang on to hope that the Bills aren't going anywhere for a long time.

 

Good analysis.

 

Gundlach was, of course, a name at TCW, and probably could charge more than your average bond fund, but I highly doubt bond funds can charge the 2% standard for private equity and venture capital firms; the standard bond fund fee is probably 1%, like p.e./v.c. fund of funds.

 

I am leaning towards his being a billionaire, but he *might* not quite be there yet.

 

Forbes lists are based off of publicly available information- i.e., someone like Steve Schwartzman's net worth can be easily traced through Blackstone's market cap and his held shares pre/post I.P.O.; someone who runs a private fund, like Leon Black of Apollo (who is the real owner of the 76ers) can have their wealth conservatively estimated by the size of the fund and I.R.R., plus information like share of carried interest/management fees that might be available. If Gundlach is a billionaire, Forbes doesn't want to overestimate someone's wealth, so the information they have might peg him at, say, $800 million. Half of the people who should be on Forbes' list aren't.

[Armchair GM]

1.) Alan Branch takes Kyle William's DT spot and KW is used as a situation passing downs DT.

2.) Bills sign Lamar Houston in FA to be the opposite bookend to Mario. Now we have 2 guys that can line up anywhere on the DL, giving opposing OL's big problems

3.) Bills bring back Jabari Greer as their nickel corner

 

First free agent signed Lamar Houston DE Raiders

 

Didn't even see this b4 I posted...great minds think alike...or like minds think they're great?

[uncle flap]

Good analysis.

 

Gundlach was, of course, a name at TCW, and probably could charge more than your average bond fund, but I highly doubt bond funds can charge the 2% standard for private equity and venture capital firms; the standard bond fund fee is probably 1%, like p.e./v.c. fund of funds.

 

I am leaning towards his being a billionaire, but he *might* not quite be there yet.

 

Forbes lists are based off of publicly available information- i.e., someone like Steve Schwartzman's net worth can be easily traced through Blackstone's market cap and his held shares pre/post I.P.O.; someone who runs a private fund, like Leon Black of Apollo (who is the real owner of the 76ers) can have their wealth conservatively estimated by the size of the fund and I.R.R., plus information like share of carried interest/management fees that might be available. If Gundlach is a billionaire, Forbes doesn't want to overestimate someone's wealth, so the information they have might peg him at, say, $800 million. Half of the people who should be on Forbes' list aren't.

 

Yeah, looking around now, it appears the average amount of fees for most of Doubleline's various funds is around 1%, (although some have up to 4% in load fees alone). My "conservative" estimate probably wasn't all that conservative wrt how much he has "probably" made from Doubleline.

 

However, based on my assumption that in 2011 he was worth more than $90 million - he earned his first $1 million check from TCW in 1990 and was making $40 mil/year by 2009, so I think we can assume he'd have far more than $90 mil to his name at that point- and that besides whatever he's made from Doublineline fees, he likely has made money on his own investments, I still think he's gotta have a billion by now.

 

I had a feeling about the Forbes lists that you seem to confirm - many of the profiles seem to have fuzzy estimates so it's not as if they are looking at private tax returns or anything like that.

 

I admit I'm just smitten about a guy with a ton of money who said:

 

Gundlach acknowledged that Bills owner Ralph Wilson is unlikely to part with the franchise while still living. He also acknowledged that buying a sports franchise in Western New York isn’t a huge growth opportunity. “It’s not an investment,” he said. “It’s because I love the Bills.”

 

and

 

“One of these days, maybe five years from now -- I hope it’s 20 years from now -- the Bills will have to have an ownership change. And I think it would be a tragedy to have the Bills go to some random city and be called, you know, the L.A. Multitude or whatever the hell they’d call it. I want them to be the Buffalo Bills.”

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/dailyfix/2011/05/26/bills-draw-another-interested-buyer/

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2011/05/gundlach-bills-buffalo-nfl-doubleline-tcw-bond-funds.html

 

 

PS Sorry everyone, not trying to hijack the thread

[missthe kgun]

Stevie gets dealt for a 5th rd pick

Spiller Dealt or a 3rd and a 4th

Kyle Williams Dealt for a 3rd and 4th

The Bills trade back from 9 o the 15-20 range and pick up an extra 2nd

The Bills get Carlos Hyde, and Kevin Benjamin, and build an o-line like he 90's Cowboys with all the extra picks, paving the way for our dynasty!!!

 

 

Go Bills!!!

[section122]

I think I would have a honest to goodness freak out if any of this happened. Jeez, I'd need to buy season tickets again!

 

Especially the Robinson, Jenkins, Jackson scenario

That or the

OT-Robinson

OG Cyril Richardson

TE-C.J. Fiedorowicz

 

Are my favorite out of these.

 

My bold prediction?

 

Thad Lewis is our opening day starter.

[Buftex]

If a multi-billionaire doesn't have enough dough to buy the Bills, then who does?

 

Terry Pegula!

[A Dog Named Kelso]

The Bills finally build that O line thru the draft by taking an OT, OG, TE with the first three picks, in any order.

 

They sign Dexter McCluster away from the Chiefs, and he, Spiller, Jackson terrorize opponents. Spiller has a breakout year and rushes for 1800+ yards

EJ starts to develop into a franchise QB, and throws for 3000+ yards.

 

( one bold prediction) Thus, with a new solid O line the Bills sweep the Patriots, Jets, Dolphins and win the division, and make the playoffs.

 

So that is their yearly 6 wins?

They have to win a few more for your prediction to come true

[3rdand12]

That or the

OT-Robinson

OG Cyril Richardson

TE-C.J. Fiedorowicz

 

Are my favorite out of these.

 

My bold prediction?

 

Thad Lewis is our opening day starter.

okay. now great minds think alike

This will stick in the back of my mind sir. confoundit !

Edited February 19, 2014 by 3rdand12

[sfladave]

My bold prediction is that they sign Byrd to a four-year, 32 million dollar deal.

Add at least 6 million to that 4 year contract and you'll be in the right range.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

The Putrids CRASH and BURN - finish last in the AFCE

Edited February 20, 2014 by BillsFan-4-Ever

[johnwalter]

doug marrone combine press conference:

http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/165886-1-bold-offseason-prediction/

[Kellyto83TD]

My bold prediction is that Buffalo trades UP in the draft.

 

I've always been a fan of trading back, but I feel like the front office may feel comfortable with much of the team as it sits now, and may be very high on one of the prospects.

I will see your trade up and raise you... to take a quarterback.

[Rocky Landing]

My bold prediction: we trade for Matt Moore for another offseason QB competition.

[SactoBillFan]

Bold: Bills play 16 regular season games winning some of them.

[billsfan89]

If I had to make a bold prediction I would say that the Bills draft a QB in the first two rounds. I am sure if the right guy fell to them at the right pick they might take a QB. Obviously the team is going to bring in a vet backup but I wouldn't be shocked to see a high draft pick be spent on QB.

[Kirby Jackson]

Two months have passed and I thought it would be interesting to go back to this thread. On the 1st page Buftex predicted that the new ownership group would start to take shape! He later suggested that it would be Pegula.

Edited April 5, 2014 by Kirby Jackson